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2019年4月27日星期六

到达率X和特朗普的OPEC通话的网络广播

It's been quite a week in 的 oil market with Brent touching $75 per barrel for 的 first time in 2019, amid exaggerated long calls reminiscent of Q4 2018, and we all know how that ended. In this backdrop, 的 Oilholic did his first oil market webcast for independent financial platform 到达率X.

该公司正在努力通过其技术平台来改变传统的金融市场研究和投资银行服务。这个想法源于创建一个适合MiFID II后投资和运营环境的公正的研究,信息和服务中心,Oilholic自去年夏天以来一直与联合创始人Rafael S. Lajeunesse一起参与其进展。和Olivier Beau deLoménie。

The topic of 的 webcast was what's in store for 的 oil market in H2 2019, especially as 的 Oilholic believes 的 current set of market fundamentals suggest 的re's not much further for Brent to go than beyond $75 per barrel, and in fact it is likely to average towards 的 lower range of $70-75 per barrel this year.

Here's a recording of 的 webcast on 的YouTube, which has been converted into a 播客 by 的 good folks 在 到达率X:



而且您是否想听 声云; 这也是一个链接.

Away from 的 webcast, just as Brent hit $75, US President Donald 王牌 hit it. Ahead of a political rally, 的 President said he'd "called 欧佩克" and that oil prices were coming down. Cue a slide on that pretext in this Goldilocks Economy, where 原油 has little room to go further up. Here are 的 Oilholic's thoughts in more detail via a 福布斯 发布 . That's all for 的 moment folks, keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

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© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2019.

2019年4月19日星期五

注意对冲基金的要求

So it is that 欧佩克 has moved its ministers meeting, and 的 欧佩克/non-OPEC from 四月 17/18 to 六月 25/26, but 的 Oilholic decided to come to 的 Austrian capital anyway given that other 'crude' meetings could not be moved, and because 维也纳 is lovely in 的 spring anyway!

While spring might be in 的 air in 维也纳, a bit of craziness has surfaced in 的 Oil market trading sphere. Yet again, no 不久er has Brent crossed $70, chatter of three-figure 原油 prices 是一个gain rearing its head. Here's 的 Oilholic warning from 最近的历史(通过 福布斯);以及为什么要谨慎。

没有什么可以公开看好石油市场的了–利空的变量(即中国,唐纳德·特朗普总统的贸易手段,英国脱欧,德国的经济放缓和不断变化的消费模式尚未实质性地改变)和基于地缘政治的利多的讽刺(即利比亚,委内瑞拉和尼日利亚)很重要,但如果没有的话,将得到部分抵消整体而言,市场对美国产量增加的看法。

Few in 维也纳, think an oil price 穗 is on 的 cards, having had three days of deliberations over, let's face it more than three friendly beers. That sentiment is echoed by both heavy sour and light sweet physical traders 的 Oilholic has spoken to in Shanghai and Rotterdam. 

Not many believe 欧佩克 wants three-figure prices; and even if 的y do, more light sweet American 原油 is hitting 的 market heading to Asia. Yours truly has long maintained that we are stuck in a boring oscillation between $60-80 per barrel prices; a predictability that hedge funds find boring for very different monetary reasons. Let's leave it 在 that!

As for 欧佩克, it is not going to move until 王牌 decides on if and what kind/level of waivers he is going to grant importers of Iranian 原油 or not. That and balancing Russia’s concerns are probably 的 primary reasons behind 发布 poning its ministers' meeting. That's that from 维也纳 until 六月.

Interspersed between 原油 meetings, 的 Oilholic also found time for a mooch about 维也纳's 环路 on a sunny afternoon, starting from 的 Intercontinental Hotel to 的 Rathaus up to Karlskirche; partially replicating 的 past-time of 阿里·纳奈米, 的 inimitable former Saudi Oil Minister. Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’! 

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©Gaurav Sharma2019。照片© 高拉夫·夏尔马, 2019

2014年7月24日,星期四

对冲基金已经‘contangoed’

Recent events may have pushed 的 Brent front month futures contract back towards US$108 per barrel; but 的re's no denying some have been 'contangoed'! 乌克兰紧张局势 and lower Libyan production are hard to ignore, even if 的 latter 是一个 bit of a given.

Nonetheless, for a change, 的 direction of both benchmark prices this month indicates that 七月 did belong to 的 physical traders with papers traders, most notably 对冲基金, taking a beating.

It's astonishing (or perhaps not) that many paper traders went long on Brent banking on 的 premise of "的 only way is up" as 的 伊拉克叛乱 上个月升级。唯一的问题是,尽管内部混乱,伊拉克石油仍从其南部的巴士拉石油中心调运。此外,在ISIS控制下的领域几乎没有 伊拉克主要石油生产区.

After spiking above $115, 的 Brent price 不久 plummeted to under $105 as 的 reality of 的 physical market began to bite. It seems European refiners were holding back from buying 的 expensive 原油 stuff faced with declining margins. In fact, 北海货运布伦特基本上与之同步的是月度低点。更不用说烦恼了 伊拉克油田地图, many paper traders didn't even bother with 的 ancillary warning signs.

正如惠誉国际评级本月早些时候指出的那样,由于产能过剩,需求和供应不平衡以及来自海外的竞争,至少在未来的一到两年内,欧洲的炼油利润可能仍将保持疲软。 2014年上半年,西北欧的炼油利润平均为每桶3.3美元,低于2013年的每桶4美元和2012年的6.8美元。

根据其复杂性,位置和效率,许多欧洲炼油厂一直处于亏损状态或仅微利。在小型牛市中,他们几乎不是那种用油轮来购买货物的买家。由于包括经济停滞和欧盟能源法规导致国内消费偏向柴油等因素,利润率较低的情况本身并不是什么新鲜事。

“这意味着多余的汽油被出口,而柴油燃料的短缺则由进口来填补,这促使它们与中东,俄罗斯和美国的炼油厂竞争,后者可以获得廉价的原料并平均降低能源成本。地中海炼油厂的中断还给他们带来了伤害。来自利比亚的石油供应量,但随着东部港口出口的恢复,这种情况可能会有所改善。”惠誉分析师Dmitry Marinchenko解释说。

Of course tell that to 对冲基金 managers who still went long in 六月 collectively holding just short of 600 million 纸桶 on 的ir books banking on 退货. But thanks to smart, strategic buying by physical traders eyeing cargoes without firm buyers, Contango set in hitting 的 hedge funds with massive losses.

什么时候 supply remains adequate (or shall we say perceived to be adequate) and key buyers are not in a mood to buy in 的 volumes 的y normally do down to operational constraints, you know you've been 'contangoed' as forward month delivery will come 在 a sharp discount to later contracts!

ICE截至7月15日当周的最新交易者承诺报告显示,对冲基金和其他投机者将其多头赌注削减了约25%,从而将其在布伦特的净多头期货和期权头寸从201,568减少至151,981,现在撤退已很明显。如果将审查窗口延长至6月的最后一周,那么石油狂人将说减少了近40%。

As for 的 European refiners, competition from overseas is likely to remain high, although Fitch reckons margins may start to recover in 的 medium term as economic growth gradually improves and overall refining capacity in Europe decreases. For instance, a recent 彭博社 调查 indicated that of 的 104 refining facilities region wide, 10 will shut permanently by 2020 from France to Italy to 的 Czech Republic. No surprises 的re as both 欧佩克 and 的 国际能源署 see European fuel demand as being largely flat.

Speaking of 的 国际能源署 , 的 Oilholic got a chance earlier this month to chat with its Chief Economist 法提赫·比罗尔博士. Despite 的 latest tension, he sees Russian oil & gas as a key component of 的 global energy mix (Read all about it in 油鬼's 福布斯 发布

同时,穆迪将美国对俄罗斯的新制裁视为对俄罗斯石油公司和诺瓦泰克的负面信用。最新一轮的限制措施将有效地禁止俄罗斯石油公司,诺瓦泰克和其他受制裁实体,包括几家俄罗斯银行和国防公司从美国投资者,公司和银行购买融资和新债。

俄罗斯石油公司和Novatek实际上将被禁止获得期限超过90天或新股本的未来贷款,从而使它们脱离美国长期资本市场。由于两家公司的贸易活动目前均不受影响,穆迪尚未采取评级行动。但是,该机构表示,制裁将大大限制两家公司的融资选择,并可能对诸如 Novatek的Yamal 液化天然气 .

No one is sure what 的 aftermath of 的 MH17悲剧 would be, how 的 乌克兰危机 would be resolved, and what implications it has for Russian energy companies and 的ir Western partners. All we can do is wait and see. That's all for 的 moment folks. Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

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©Gaurav Sharma2014。照片:石油管道© Cairn Energy

2014年4月30日,星期三

US prices 在 的 pump & that export ban

Each time 的 Oilholic is Stateside, one feels obliged to flag up petrol prices 在 的 pump, often a cause of complaint from US motorists, 惊吓总统 to seek a release of 的 Strategic Petroleum Reserves.
 
So here's 的 latest price snap (剩下 ) from a petrol station 在 圣何塞任务, California captured by 敬上 while in 的 South San Francisco Bay. And 的 price is per gallon, not litres, a pricing level that drivers in Europe can only dream of. With 的 shale bonanza, chatter is growing that 美国 should end its ban on 原油 oil exports. The ban was instituted in wake of 的 1973 欧佩克 oil embargo 从那以后一直是禁忌话题。

但是,您在上方看到的价格正是取消该禁令的中期不会结束的原因。本地使用的论点与针对阻止美国天然气出口失败而提出的论点相同– i.e. end consumers would take a hit. While in 的 case of natural gas, industry lobby groups were 的 ones who complained 的 loudest, in 的 case of 原油 oil, consumer lobby groups are likely to lead 的 fight.

That's hardly an edifying prospect for any senator or congressman debating 的 issue, especially in an election cycle which rears its head every two years in 美国 with never ending politicking. 只需问“现在的参议员”和民主党人埃德·马基! 但是引用别人的改变–参议院外交关系委员会主席罗伯特·梅嫩德斯(Robert Menendez), 另一个民主党人, has often quipped that lifting 的 ban would benefit only major oil companies and could end up "hurting US drivers and households" in 的 long run with higher gasoline prices.
 
Not all Democrats or US politicians are opposed to 的 lifting of a ban though. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chairman Mary Landrieu and Republican 参议员丽莎·默科夫斯基 support a lifting of 的 ban. Both recently called on 的 环评 to conduct a detailed study of 的 effects of 原油 oil exports.
 
"This 是一个 complex puzzle that is best solved with dynamic and ongoing analysis of 的 full picture, rather than a static study of a snapshot in time," 的y wrote in an 4月11日给EIA管理员Adam Sieminski的信.
 
However, in all honesty, 的 Oilholic expects little movement in this front. 阅读过去的歇斯底里 over 的 slightest upward flicker 在  US pumps and you'll get your answer why. One must be thankful that 的 debate 是一个t least taking place. That too, only because US 原油 oil inventory books keep breaking records.

Earlier this month, 的 market was informed that US inventories had climbed to 的ir highest level since 可能 1931. So what are we looking 在 here –  stockpiles 在 库欣, Oklahoma, 的 country's most voluminous oil-storage hub and 的 delivery point for New York futures, rose by 202,000 barrels in 的 week ended 四月 25.
 
The news trigged 的 biggest WTI futures loss since 十一月 last year as a 彭博社 News 调查 estimated 的 net stockpile level to be close to 399.9 million last week. That said, nothing stops 的 likes of Markey from blowing hot air or 投机者 from netting 的ir pound of flesh.
 
According to 的 Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by 的 Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, traders and 投机者 increased 的ir overall bullish bets in 原油 oil futures for a fifth straight week, all 的 way to 的 highest level since 游行 4 last week.
 
The non-commercial contracts of 原油 oil futures, primarily traded by large 投机者 and hedge funds, totalled a net position of +410,125 contracts for 的 week ended 四月 22. The previous week had seen a total of +409,551 net contracts. While this represents only a minor change of just +574 contracts for 的 week, it is still in throes of a bull run. That's all from San Francisco folks! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!
 
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©Gaurav Sharma2014。照片:美国加利福尼亚州圣何塞市一个加油站的汽油价格©Gaurav Sharma,2014年4月。

2013年7月23日,星期二

WTI集会,自大,对冲基金和投机者

The 24-7 world of oil futures trading saw Brent and WTI benchmarks draw level this weekend. In fact, 的 latter even traded 在 a premium of more than a few cents for better parts of an hour 在 one point.

After having traded 在 a discount to Brent for three years, with 的 spread reaching an all time high of around US$30 在 one point (in 九月 2011), 的 WTI’s turnaround is noteworthy. However, 的 commentary that has 从某些方面紧随其后!

Some opined, more out of hubris than expertise, that 的 WTI已恢复其地位 as 的 world’s leading benchmark back from Brent. Others cooed that 的 sread’收缩到zilch,是美国’s way of sticking up two fingers to 欧佩克. 油鬼 has never heard so much [hedge funds and speculative trading inspired] tosh on 的 airwaves and 的 internet for a long time.

Sticking 的 proverbial two fingers up to 欧佩克 from an American standpoint, should involve a lower WTI price, one that is price positive for domestic consumers! Instead we have an inflated three-figure one which mirrors geopolitically sensitive, supply-shock spooked international benchmarks and makes 投机者 uncork champagne.

此外,如果重新获得基准的“世界地位”会带来更高的价格–是不是真的值得吗?人们宁愿使用脱钩的基准来反映后院的情况。美国石油产量的上升,库欣(Cushing)供过于求的消退以及通往中期能源独立道路的粉刷应该导致基准价下跌!然后’当您用两根手指指望国外石油进口时。

所以也许主流评论家在美国应该盘点一下,问是否’s transpired over 的 weekend is really something to shout about and not 让受投机者启发的评论获得关注。

看上周五’在CFTC数据中,很明显,对冲基金一直在押注WTI反弹,但几乎拥有活力。如果将持股转换为实物桶,我们’d be looking roughly around 350 million barrels of 原油 oil! That’高于在 利比亚危机. You can take a wild guess 的 delivery won’t be in 汉普顿, because a delivery was never 的 objective. 和唐’t worry, 短路 即将开始;我们’价格已降至$ 106-107。

油鬼 asked seven traders this morning whether 的y thought 的 WTI would extend gains –没有人认为会。远期合约在技术上仍然超买,我们知道是谁。 什么时候 敬上 visited 的 CBOT earlier this year 并与资深评论员进行了长时间的聊天 菲尔 Flynn of Price Futures, we both agreed that 的 WTI’s star is on 的 rise.

But for that to happen, followed by a coming together of 的 benchmarks – 的re would need to be a "meeting in 的 middle" according to Flynn. Meaning, 的 relative constraints and fundamentals would drive Brent lower and WTI higher over 的 course of 2013. What has appened of late is nothing of 的 sort.

分析师 can point to four specific developments as being behind 的 move - 即,长角牛管道流量(从西德克萨斯的二叠纪盆地到USGC,绕过Cushing,它将从第二季度的75 kbpd上升到第三季度的全部225 kbpd),二叠纪Express管道阶段 我启动(将再增加90 kbpd的产能,再次绕过库欣),在BP惠廷炼油厂重新启动一个关键的原油装置(7月1日开始运行,主要是WTI原油,将达到410 kbpd),最后因最近加拿大艾伯塔省的洪水而关闭。 

But as 迈克·威特纳, global head of oil research 在 Société Générale, notes: "Everything except 的 Alberta flooding –已经被广泛报道,电报和分析了几个月。此信息绝对没有新内容!”

While it is plausible that such factors get priced in twice, Wittner opined that 的re still appear to be "some large and even relatively new trading positions that are long WTI, possibly CTAs and algorithmic funds."

In a note to clients, he added, that even though fundamentals were not 的 only price drivers, "的y do strongly suggest that WTI should not strengthen any further versus 的 Louisiana Light Sweet (LLS) and Brent."

说到算法,又有一群野兽正在华尔街安家。如果最近的证据有待改进,那些以“高频率”运行的方法。一家所谓的高频交易商(HFT)有很多事情需要解决,更不用说向他和他的公司处以300万美元的罚款。

英国和美国的金融监管机构发现,Panther Energy的Michael Coscia使用了他开发的算法来在2011年9月6日至2011年10月18日这两个国家的贸易交易所中为石油和天然气创建虚假订单。与供应无关,与需求无关,与市场条件无关,与基准的骄傲无关,只是分层和欺骗的简单案例(即通过操纵交易来取消和操纵原油价格)。

您必须以一种不正当的方式将其交给这些HFT家伙。在创建下达,购买或出售订单的机制时,比手动执行要快得多,这是一种巧思。不是操纵市场。不过,Coscia和Panther Energy并没有脱离英国的监管历史。英国金融行为监管局(FCA)判给他903,176美元的罚款,是该湖畔这一方对HFT采取行动的第一次监督。

另外, the CFTC fined Coscia and 黑豹能量 $1.4 million while 的 Chicago Mercantile Exchange fined 的m $800,000. He’s thought to have made $1.4 million back in 2011 from 的 said activity, so it should be a $3 million lesson of monetary proportions for him and others. Or will it? 油鬼 is not betting his house on it!

除了定价问题,消费量超过其生产量的大洲– Asia – is likely to 看到对大型E的大量投资&石油和天然气项目。穆迪认为,但这可能给亚洲石油公司的基本面带来压力。’s.

Simon Wong, senior credit officer 在 的 ratings agency, reckons companies 在 的 lower end of 的 investment-grade rating scale will, continue to face greater pressure from large debt-funded acquisitions and capital spending."

"Moreover, acquisitions of oil and gas assets with long development lead time are subject to greater execution delays or cost overruns, a credit negative. If acquisitions accelerate production output and diversify oil and gas reserves, 的n 的 pressure from large debt-funded acquisitions will reduce," Wong added.

但是,由于大多数亚洲石油公司都是国家石油公司(NOC)- in which governments own large stakes and which often own or manage 的ir strategic resources of 的ir countries – 的ir ratings incorporate a high (often very high) degree of explicit or implied government support.

The need for acquisitions and large capital-spending reflects 的 fact that Asian NOCs are under pressure to invest in order to diversify 的ir reserves geographically. Naming names, 穆迪’在上周发布的报告中做了一些观察。

该机构指出,三家公司–中国石油天然气集团公司,马来西亚国家石油公司和印度的ONGC–由于手头上有大量现金(或债务水平低),它们具有很高的收购能力。除了宣布的资本支出计划外,这三人还可能在收购上花费超过100亿美元,而不会损害各自的基础信贷质量。

然后再来四家公司–中海油(中国),PTT勘探与生产公司(泰国),韩国国家石油公司(韩国) and Sinopec (China) –根据穆迪(Moody)的说法’s and can spend an additional $2 billion to $10 billion. These 的n are or rather could be 的 big spenders.

最后, if Nigeria’s 原油 mess interests you – 的n one would like to flag-up a couple of recent articles that can give you a glimpse into how things go in that part of 的 world. The first one 是一个 report by 经济学家 on 的 murky world encountered by Shell and ENI in 的ir 在 tempts to win an oil block and 的 second one is a 路透社’ report 关于汽油合同的情况‘handled’ in 的 country. If both articles whet your appetite for more, 的n 迈克尔·皮尔’关于尼日利亚的精彩著作’s oil industry, its history and complications, would be a good starting point. And that's all for 的 moment folks. Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

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©Gaurav Sharma2013。照片1:美国阿拉斯加的管道 ©Michael S. Quinton /国家地理。图2:美国北达科他州的石油钻探场 © Phil Schermeister /国家地理。 

2013年7月15日,星期一

Speculators make 的 oil price belie market logic

瞬息万变的原油市场再次表明了其与宏观经济基本面的脱节,以及为什么混淆的地缘政治和精明的投机行为在最近的高峰和低谷之后出现。给一点背景–WTI远期期货合约上周突破每桶106美元。这是16个月来最高。同时,WTI和布伦特原油之间的价差在7月11日盘中收窄至接近33个月低点1.19美元(而2011年9月为高点29.70美元)。
 
不到几周前,高盛(Goldman Sachs)结束了其收购WTI和出售布伦特原油的交易建议。在给客户的说明中,银行’s analysts said 的y expected 的 spread to narrow in 的 medium term as new pipelines help shift 的 库欣, Oklahoma glut, a physical US 原油 oil delivery point down to 的 Houston trading hub, thus removing pressure from 的 WTI forward month futures contract to 的 waterborne Brent.
 
高盛' analysts were by no means alone in 的ir thinking. Such a viewpoint about 的 spread is shared by many on Wall Street, albeit in a nuanced sort of way. While 库欣's impact in narrowing 的 spread 是一个 valid one, 的 response of 的 WTI to events elsewhere defies market logic.
 
可悲的是埃及处于动荡之中,叙利亚仍在燃烧,利比亚’问题仍然存在,伊拉克没有像观察员所希望的那样迅速站稳脚跟。但是,这是否值得WTI飙升至纪录高位?油鬼说不!同意上周美联储主席本·伯南克的讲话也支持了石油价格, 经济刺激措施“仍然”必要。但是,大多数上涨的价格压力是投机者的恶作剧-纯粹而简单。
 
不到两个月前,我们被美国页岩是改变游戏规则的争论兜售–不只是在供应方 分析师,但IEA也是如此。因此,如果真是这样,为什么理性的WTI交易者对中东地区更广泛的冲突感到恐惧呢?叙利亚和埃及甚至没有对全球石油市场供应链做出有意义的贡献,更不用说对北美市场了。此外,即使不是低迷,中国和印度也都面临着艰难时期。
 
你知道,给 this blogger 如果您真的认为休息一下 the US 馏分油的需求在10天之内增长如此之大,以至于WTI的高价值得吗?让我们剖析供应方的观点。上周的EIA数据显示,美国石油库存连续第二周下降了约1000万桶。这标志着两周之内总库存下降了2020万桶,是自1982年以来的最大跌幅。
 
However, that is still not enough to detract 的 value of net US inventories which are well above 的ir five-year average. Furthermore, 的re is nothing to suggest thus far that 的 equation would alter for 的 remainder of 2013 with media outlets reporting 的 same. The latest one, from 的 BBC, 基于 国际能源署的数字 calmly declares 的 scare over 'peak oil' subsiding. US 原油 production rose 1.8% to 7.4 million barrels per day last week, 的 most since 一月 1992 and in fact on 可能 24, US supplies rose to 397.6 million, 的 highest inventory level since 1931!
 
但尽管如此, somehow Bernanke's reassurances on a continuation of Federal stimulus, flare-ups in 的 Middle East [no longer a big deal from a US supply-side standpoint] and a temporary stockpile decline were enough for 的 latest 穗. Why? Because it 是一个 tried and tested way for those who trade in 纸桶 去赚钱。
 
A 可以得出很好的联系类比 between what's happening with 的 WTI and 布伦特原油期货 "past". Digging up 的 Brent data for 的 last 36 months, you will see mini pretexts akin to 的 ones we've seen in 的 last 10 days, being 投机者部署 to push to 的 futures contract ever higher; in some instances above $110 level by going long. They 的n rely on publicity hungry politicians to bemoan how consumers are feeling 的 pinch. 可能 be an 埃德·马基 can come alone and raise 的 issue of releasing strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs) and put some downward pressure – especially now that he's in 美国 Senate.
 
同时, of course 调查数据显示,高价开始损害经济 拖累因素 石油价格通常在三个月内上涨,最明显的是在输入/输出价格等式上。然后这些投机者做空,指责经济 增长放缓,某种程度上是供应“增加”的牵强的原因,而中国人的消费却没有达到应有的水平!和 soon 价格开始下跌。 WTI的这一最新峰值没有什么不同。

Neither 的 underlying macroeconomic fundamentals nor 的 supply-demand scenarios have altered significantly over 的 last two weeks. Even 的 pretexts used by 投机者 to make money haven't changed either. 油鬼 suspects a correction is round 的 corner and 的 benchmark 是一个 short! (点击上方的图表 to enlarge)
 
Away from 原油 pricing matters to some significant news for 印度 and 印度尼西亚. It seems both countries are reacting to curb 燃油补贴 under plans revealed last month. The 印度n government agreed to a new gas pricing formula which doubled domestic natural gas prices to $8.40/million British 的rmal units (mmbtu) from $4.20/mmbtu.

同时,印尼政府正在制定计划,将汽油价格提高44%,至每加仑6,500卢比(2.50美元),柴油价格提高22%,至每加仑5,500卢比。在两国政府的手中 受预算限制的强迫,这是好的经济学,但是不好的政治。在亚洲,情况往往恰恰相反,尤其是在即将举行的大选时(两国都是这样)。
 
Elsewhere, 敬上 recently had 的 chance to read a 穆迪's report on 的 outlook for 的 global integrated oil and gas industry. According to 的 ratings agency, 的 outlook will remain stable over 的 next 12 to 18 months, reflecting 的 likelihood of subdued earnings growth during this period.

Analyst Francois Lauras, who authored 的 report, said, "We expect 的 net income of 的 global oil and gas sector to fall within 的 stable range of minus 10% to 10% well into 2014 as robust oil prices and a slight pick-up in US natural gas prices help offset ongoing fragility in 的 refining segment." 
 
"Although oil prices may moderate, we expect demand growth in Asia and persistent geopolitical risk to keep prices 在 elevated levels,"他加了。
 
The agency anticipates that integrated oil companies will concentrate on reinvesting cash flows into 的ir upstream activities, driven by "robust" oil prices, favourable long-term trends in energy consumption and 的 prospects of higher returns.
 
但是,由于大型项目通常很复杂,需要大量资金并且交付周期长,因此它们对运营和资本效率措施施加了压力。穆迪预计,在短期内,行业参与者将继续处置非核心外围资产,以补充经营现金流,为大型资本支出计划提供资金,以及在不损害其资产负债表的情况下派发股息。
 
最后, the agency said it could change its outlook to negative if a substantial drop in oil prices were triggered by a further deterioration in 的 world economy. 如果该公司对 the sector's net income increased by more than 10% over 的 next 12-18 months.

穆迪's has maintained 的 stable outlook since 九月 2011. In 的 meantime, whatever 的 macroeconomic climate might be, it hardly ever rains on 的 投机者' parade. That's all for 的 moment folks! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!
 
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©Gaurav Sharma2013。照片:Pump Jacks,美国德克萨斯州佩里顿© Joel Sartore /国家地理。图:WTI原油期货美元/桶© BBC / DigitalLook.com

2012年10月21日,星期日

投机者,生产& 圣地亚哥’s views

It is good to be in 的 ‘unified’加利福尼亚圣地亚哥港要几天 get some 原油 views, especially those of 的 trading types who have a pad on 的 city’s 海洋海滩 waterfront looking out to 的 Pacific. While 的 view from one of 的ir living room windows 是一个 testament to 的 current serenity of 的 Pacific Ocean (an example on 的 剩下 ), markets are anything but serene with politicians blaming paper traders for 的 current volatility.

而不是耸耸肩和嘲弄‘typical’, most admit candidly that 的 ratio of paper (or virtual) barrels versus physical barrels will continue to rise. Some can and quite literally do sit on 的 beach and trade with no intention of queuing 在 的 end of pipeline in 库欣, Oklahoma to collect 的ir 原油 cargo.

轶事证据表明,纸本交易量与实物交易量之比从千年之交的8:1上升至2012年的33:1。此外,有一章提醒人们,石油狂热者不要忘记公众下注。“They actually don’t even enter 的 equation but have a flutter on 的 general direction of 原油 benchmarks and in some cases –例如你英国人–所有奖金都是免税的,” he added.

但是,在他最近一次访问美国时, yours truly 看到供需动态的国家正在经历缓慢但确定的变化。实际上,老商人海军在圣地亚哥是一个统一的港口,因为空港和海港彼此相邻,这会告诉您美国原油进出口调度方式正在发生变化。简而言之,由于页岩油(主要是伊格福特公司的石油)和德克萨斯州和北达科他州的常规生产不断增加,经济增长并没有达到预期的速度–美国从海外进口的原油越来越少。

The 国际能源署 projects a fall of 2.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in imports by US refiners and reckons 的 global oil trading map and direction of oil consignments would be redrawn by 2017. Not only 美国, but many nations with new projects coming onstream would find internal use for 的ir product. 印度’的前景驱动力和沙特阿拉伯’相对较新的Manifa油田就是值得注意的例子。

因此,到2017年,中东原油出口下降了’只能归因于美国的产量增加,但其他生产国的国内消费也要增加。总体而言,IEA估计全球各地区之间的贸易量为3290万桶/日。比去年同期下降160万桶。一些人认为,这可能主要归因于美国对轻质低硫原油需求下降。这种想法可能增加了维托尔(Vitol),嘉能可(Glencore)和甘沃尔(Gunvor)等石油交易商向东的进击。这种情绪也已经对扩大布伦特原油产生了影响’相对于WTI溢价,后者不一定反映全球市场格局。

Elsewhere, while 的 Oilholic has been away, it seems 血压 一直在发挥作用。在周一向伦敦证券交易所发表的一份声明中,英国石油表示已同意“条款”,以280亿美元的价格将其在俄罗斯子公司TNK-BP的50%股权出售给俄罗斯石油公司,混合现金和股票共计171亿美元俄罗斯石油公司的12.84%。 血压 补充说,它打算用现金支付的48亿美元从俄罗斯政府购买Rosneft的5.66%的股份。

血压 董事长Carl-Henric Svanberg说, “TNK-BP has been a good investment and we are now laying a new foundation for our work in Russia. 俄罗斯石油公司 is set to be a major player in 的 global oil industry. This material holding in 俄罗斯石油公司 will, we believe, give 血压 solid returns.”

与BP’AAR的寡头合作伙伴已经与 俄罗斯石油公司,整个俄罗斯国家能源公司收购的整个TNK-BP的市场都处于旺盛的状态。如果发生这种情况,俄罗斯石油公司将拥有315万桶/天的大规模原油生产能力,并将相当一部分俄罗斯生产从私人手中转移到国家控制之下。对于已经负债累累的公司,这还会增加更多的债务。它的净债务接近其EBITA的两倍,而要争夺TNK-BP双方合作伙伴的股份,将需要一些聪明的融资。

在企业方面,加拿大政府拒绝了马来西亚国家石油公司 以54亿美元竞标Progress Energy Resources。后者周日表示,对渥太华“感到失望”’的决定。该公司补充说,它将尝试为该交易找到可能的解决方案。工业部长克里斯蒂安·帕拉迪斯(Christian Paradis)在周五的一份声明中说,他已致马来西亚国家石油公司(Petronas)一封信,表示他“对拟议的投资可能对加拿大产生净收益不满意”。

Meanwhile civil strife is in full swing in 科威特 according to 的 BBC World Service as police used tear gas and stun grenades to disperse large numbers of people demonstrating against 的 dissolution of parliament by Emir Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah whose family have ruled 的 country for over 200 years.

6月,科威特一家法院宣布2月将其拥有50个席位的议会选举为选举,这使以伊斯兰为首的反对派大获全胜,无效,恢复了亲政府的议会。从那以后工厂里一直有麻烦。科威特动乱只是一个偶然的脚注– 的 国际能源署 ’这篇博客文章在上面引用了该公司的预测,到2017年美国炼油厂的原油进口量将下降260万桶/日,几乎是科威特目前的日产量(只是为了说明这一点)!那’都是圣地亚哥人!它’快要说了‘Aloha’去夏威夷。但在此之前,奥胡派(Oilholic)让您对中途岛号(USS Midway)的看法右上方), once an aircraft carrier involved in Vietnam and Gulf War I and currently firmly docked in 圣地亚哥 harbour as a museum. In its heydays, 美国S Midway housed over 4,000 naval personnel and over 130 aircraft.

据发言人说,中途岛号’该机为核动力,总油箱容量为250万加仑柴油,为飞机提供动力,可容纳150万加仑飞机燃料。它每天消耗250,000加仑的柴油,而在飞行任务期间,运营期间的喷气燃料消耗为每天150,000加仑。现在’在我们拥有核动力航母之前就大声疾呼以保护和服务。继续阅读,继续阅读‘crude’!

©Gaurav Sharma2012。照片1:圣地亚哥海洋海滩。照片2:中途岛号航空母舰,美国加利福尼亚© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2012.

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