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Over a fortnight into 2013 and a mere day away from 的 布伦特 forward month futures contract for 二月 expiring, 的 price is above
尼尔森 在 US$111.88 per barrel. 那’在一天之内在110美元到112美元之间往返之后。
就1月初的市场情绪而言,ICE Future Europe表示,截至1月8日当周,对冲基金和其他基金经理将布伦特原油的看涨头寸提高了10,925张。九个月来最高。截至1月8日的一周,期货和期权的净多头头寸总计比空头头寸多150,036手,这是自3月27日以来的最高水平,也是连续第四周上涨。
On 的 other hand, bearish positions by producers, merchants, processors and users of 布伦特 outnumbered bullish positions by 175,478, down from 151,548 last week. It’s 的 biggest net-short position among this category of market participants since 八月 14. So where are we now and where will we be on 十二月 31, 2013?
Despite many market suggestions to 的 contrary, 巴克莱银行 continues to maintain a 2013 布伦特 forecast of US$125. The readers of this blog asked 的 油腻的 why and well 的 油腻的 asked 巴克莱银行 why. To quote 的 chap yours truly spoke to, 的 reason for this is that 巴克莱银行’ analysts still see 的 中东 as “most likely”地缘政治催化剂。
“While 的re are other likely areas of interest for 的 oil market in 2013, in our view 的 main nexus for 的 transmission into oil prices is likely to be 的 中东, with 的 spiralling situations in 叙利亚 and Iraq layered in on top of 的 core issue of 伊朗’的对外关系”巴克莱报告将添加。
宏观经济的不连续性将继续存在,但巴克莱银行’ analysts reckon that 的 catalyst 的y refer to will arrive 在 some point in 2013. Nailing 的ir colours to mast, well above
尼尔森, 的ir analysts conclude: “We are 的refore maintaining our 2013 布伦特 forecast of US$125 per barrel, just as we have for 的 past 21 months since that forecast 原为initiated in 游行 2011.”
Agreed, 的 中东 will always give food for thought to 的 observers of geopolitical 风险 (or instability) premium. Though it is not as exact a science as analysts make it out to be. However, what if 的 Chinese economy tanks? To what extent will it act as a bearish counterweight? And what are 的 chances of such an event?
For starters, 的 油腻的 thinks 的 chances are 'slim-ish', but if you’d like to put a percentage figure to 的 element of chance 的n Michael Haigh, head of commodities research 在 法国兴业银行, thinks 的re is a 20% probability of a Chinese hard-landing in 2013. This 的n begs 的 question – are 的 原油 bulls buggered if 中国 tanks, 风险溢价 or no 风险溢价?
中国目前消耗的金属约为40%,主要农作物为23%,其中20%为基础金属。‘non-renewable’ energy resources. So in 的 event of a Chinese hard-landing, not only will 的 原油 bulls be buggered, 的y’ll also lose 的ir mojo as investor confidence will be battered.
Haigh认为,如果中国经济放缓,布伦特原油价格可能会暴跌至75美元。“油价下跌30%(按照布伦特现值计算,相当于约30美元)将最终推动GDP增长,从而拉高油价。如果由于中国的冲击价格下跌,欧佩克国家将减产。所以我们期望布伦特’因此,我们将其限制在75美元以内,” he adds.
记住,印度是另一个主要消费国,也并非完全处于幸福的境地。但是,要谨慎指出当前的市场预测表明,除非发生经济动荡,2013年印度和中国的消费量预计都会增加。与此同时,美国与国际原油市场的分离将继续,美国原油产量将降至根据EIA的数据,今年的增长幅度是有史以来最大的。
The independent statistical arm of 的 US Department of Energy, estimates that 的 country’s 原油 oil production would grow by 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2013 to 7.3 million bpd. While 的 rate of increase is seen slowing slightly in 2014 to 600,000 bpd, 的 total jump in 美国石油产量 to 7.9 million bpd would be up 23% from 的 6.4 million bpd pumped domestically in 2012.
The latest forecast from 的 EIA is 的 first to include 2014 hailing 页岩! If 的 agency’s projections prove to be accurate, US 原油 oil production would have jumped 在 a mind-boggling rate of 40% between 2011 and 2014.
The EIA notes that rising output in North Dakota's 巴肯 formation and Texas's Eagle Ford fields has made US producers sharper and more productive. "The learning curve in 的 巴肯 and Eagle Ford fields, which is where 的 biggest part of this increase is coming from, has been pretty steep," a spokesperson said.
So it sees 的 WTI averaging US$89 in 2013 and US$91 a barrel in 2014. Curiously enough, in line with other market 预报, bar that of 巴克莱银行, 的 EIA, which recently adopted 布伦特 as 它的 new international benchmark, sees it fall marginally to around US$105 in 2013 and falling further to US$99 a barrel in 2014.
On a related note, 惠誉 Ratings sees supply and demand pressures supportive of 布伦特 prices above US$100 in 2013. “尽管欧洲需求疲软,但这将被新兴市场的增长所抵消。在供应方面,风险的平衡趋向于消极而非积极的冲击,对伊朗进行军事干预的可能性仍然是最明显的潜在破坏者,”它在最近的一份报告中说。
However, 的 ratings agency thinks 的re is enough spare capacity in 的 world to deal with 的 loss of 伊朗's roughly 2.8 million bpd of output. Although this would leave little spare capacity in 的 system were 的re to be another supply disruption. 让 ’s see how it all pans out; 的 油腻的 sees a US$105 to US$115 circa for 布伦特 over 2013.
Meanwhile, 的 spread between 布伦特 and WTI has narrowed to a 4-month low after 的 restart of 的 Seaway pipeline last week, which has been shut since 一月 2 in order to complete a major expansion. The expanded pipeline will not only reduce 的 bottleneck 在 Cushing, Oklahoma but reduce imports of waterborne 原油 as well. According to 彭博社, 的 原油 flow to 的 Gulf of Mexico, from Cushing, 的 delivery point for 的 纽约商品交易所 oil futures contract, rose to 400,000 bpd last Friday from 150,000 bpd 在 的 time of 的 temporary closure.
On a closing note, and going back to 惠誉 Ratings, 的 agency believes that cheap US 页岩 gas is not a material threat to 的 Europe, 中东 and Africa’s (EMEA) oil and gas sector in 2013. It 注意到 a lack of US export infrastructure, a political desire for 的 US to be self-sufficient in gas, and 的 prevalence of long term oil-based gas supply contracts in Europe all suggest 在 worst modest downward pressure on European gas prices in 的 short to medium term.
惠誉’在全球GDP持续增长(如果减弱)和潜在的供应冲击的支持下,2013年对欧洲,中东和非洲地区的油气收入的总体预期是非常适度的增长之一。该评级机构预计,2013年欧洲,中东和非洲地区的油气收入最高增长将为个位数低。仍有材料– roughly 30% to 40% – chance that revenue will fall for 的 major 欧洲,中东和非洲 oil producers, but if so this fall is unlikely to be precipitous according to a 惠誉 spokesperson.
那’s all for 的 moment folks! One doubts if oil traders are as superstitious about
尼尔森 or 的 number 111 as English cricketers and Hindu priests are, so here’到2013年原油年度。继续阅读,继续阅读‘crude’!
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©Gaurav Sharma2013。照片:Holly Rig,圣塔芭芭拉,美国加利福尼亚©詹姆斯·福特(James Forte)/《国家地理》。