利雅得那些响亮的政治大爆炸

Riyadh, capital of 的 world’s most prolific of 原油 oil producing nation – 沙特阿拉伯 – has been rocked by both physical and political bangs this weekend, 的 油腻的 notes. Overnight, state TV confirmed 的 Saudis had intercepted a ballistic missile aimed 在 Riyadh's 哈立德国王机场 fired by 也门’s 胡塞叛军.

Witnesses reported loud bangs and parts of 的 destroyed missile were found in 的 airport’s car park. The Saudis are leading a campaign to defeat 的 Houthis, as part of an international air coalition that has bombed 的 rebel group since 2015. Who else, but 伊朗, purportedly backs 的 rebels. 

Following 的 physical bang, came 的 political bang later in 的 day in 的 form of surprise dismissals and arrests of dozens of Saudi ministers, royals, officials and senior military officers by 的 country’的王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼（Mohammed bin Salman）。 

Even by secretive Saudi standards, 的 move is unprecedented. It points to an audacious 在tempt by 的 Prince to consolidate his power base and move closer to his ultimate objective of ascending to 的 country’s throne.

His father 萨尔曼国王 has been doing his bit too. Under convention, Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, a seasoned royal, 原为first in line to 的 throne to succeed Salman. But 的 King ousted him from 的 line of succession and stripped him of his role as interior minister.

Earlier in his reign, 萨尔曼国王 had removed his half-brother Prince Muqrin from 的 line of succession. By 四月 2015, 的 king had appointed Prince 穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼（Mohammed bin Salman） as second-in-line to 的 throne, giving him 的 title of deputy crown prince, a move that surprised many senior members of 的 ruling 沙特家族.

Now through what on paper appears to be an anti-corruption purge, 的 father-son duo have all but made sure of 穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼（Mohammed bin Salman）’s safe passage to 的 throne. However, in highly tribal 沙特阿拉伯, reports suggest 的 move has not gone down well. 

How it all plays out in terms of geopolitical 风险 and 的 impact all of this could have on 的 oil price remains to be seen. For now 在 least, it’s just a few 原油 bangs, albeit 在 a time 的 oil price is back above 七月 2015 levels. 那’s all for 的 moment folks! Keep reading, keep it 原油!

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© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2017. Photo: Oil extraction facility in 的 中东 © 贝壳.

地缘政治速成班

Supply side oil and gas analysts including this blogger, as well as traders of (physical not paper) 原油 oil contracts feel like tearing 的ir hair when some speculator or 的 other hits 的 airwaves citing “risk premium”, “instability premium” or more correctly “geopolitical premium” as 的 pretext for going long on oil no matter how much of 的 原油 stuff is in 的 pipeline.

As we are currently witnessing one of those rare moments in 的 oil market's history when surplus supplies and stunted demand are pretty much neutering 的 speculators’ geopolitical pretext, you might wonder what 的 fuss is all about.

Make no mistake; while 的 selective deployment of geopolitical sentiments in betting on 的 oil price has always been open to debate, 的 connection between 的 oil industry and geopolitics is undeniable. And should you need a crash course, 学术的 克劳斯·多兹 has 的 answer.

在他对地缘政治的贡献中 牛津大学出版社’ 简短介绍 series, Dodds breezes you through 的 subject via a concise book of just under 160 pages, split into six chapters.

When covering a subject this vast for a succinct book concept with case studies aplenty, 的 challenge is often about what to skip, as much as it is about what to include. The author has been brilliant in doing so via a crisp and engaging narrative.

Having enjoyed this book, which is currently in 它的 second edition, 的 油腻的 would be happy to recommend it to 的 readers of this blog. As Dodds himself notes: “It’对地缘政治至关重要” and amen to that!

However, be mindful that it is meant to help you understand geopolitics and contextualise geopolitical influences. It is neither a weighty treatise on 的 subject nor 原为intended as such. The title 它的elf makes that clear.

Anyone from an analyst to a GCSE student can pick it up and appreciate it as much as those in a hurry to get to grips with 的 subject or are of a curious disposition. Should you happen to be in this broad readership profile, one suggests you go for it, and better still keep it handy, given 的 times we live in!

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©Gaurav Sharma，2014年10月。照片：封面– 地缘政治：简短介绍 ©牛津大学出版社，2014年6月。

并不是那么紧张：石油市场和地缘政治紧张局势

The month of 八月 has brought along a milestone for 的 油腻的s Synonymous Report，但让’s get going with 原油 matters for starters as 石油市场 continue to resist a 风险溢价 driven spike.

伊拉克利比亚正在发生的悲剧’s troubles, Nigerian niggles and 的 fear of Ebola hitting exploration and production activity in West Africa, are more than enough to provide many paper traders with 的 pretext to go long and spook us all. Yet, 的 plentiful supply and stunted OECD demand scenario that’s carried over 从上个月开始 has made geopolitical tension tolerable. As such 它的 not percolating through to influence market sentiment in any appreciable fashion, bringing about a much needed price correction.

那不是’t 的 news of US air strikes on ISIS that drove 布伦特 down to a nine month low this week, rather 的 cautious mood of paper traders that did it. Among that lot were hedge fund guys n’ gals who burnt 的ir fingers recently on long bets (that backfired spectacularly in 七月), and resisted going long as soon as news of 的 latest Iraqi flare-up surfaced, quite unlike last time.

According to 冰 data, hedge funds and other money managers reduced net bullish bets on 布伦特 futures to 97,351 contracts in 的 week to 八月 5; 的 lowest on books since 二月 4. Once bitten, twice shy and you all know why. 布伦特 price is now comfortably within 的 油腻的’预计价格范围 2014年。

Away from pricing, 的 other big news of course is about 的 大合并 of 金德·摩根（Kinder Morgan） Inc (KMI), 金德·摩根（Kinder Morgan） Energy Partners (KMP) and El Paso Pipeline Partners Operating (EPBO), into one entity. The $71 billion plus complicated acquisition would create 的 largest oil and gas infrastructure company in 的 US by some distance and 的 country’s third-largest corporation in 的 sector after ExxonMobil and 雪佛龙.

穆迪’s, which has suspended 它的 ratings on 的 companies for 的 moment, says generally 的 ratings for KMP and 它的 subsidiaries will be reviewed for downgrade, and 的 ratings for KMI and EPBO and 的ir subsidiaries will be reviewed for upgrade.

斯图尔特·米勒, 穆迪's Vice President and Senior Credit Officer, notes: "KMI's large portfolio of high-quality assets generates a stable and predictable level of cash flow which could support a strong investment grade rating. However, because of 的 high leverage along with a high dividend payout ratio, we expect 的 new 金德·摩根（Kinder Morgan） to be weakly positioned with an investment grade rating."

坚持穆迪’s，紧随阿根廷’s default on paper, 的 agency has unsurprisingly changed 它的 outlook on 的 country’s major companies from stable to negative. Those affected in 的 sector include 青年党. However, 巴西石油公司 阿根廷 and Pan American Energy 阿根廷 were spared a negative outlook given 的ir subsidiary status and disconnect from headline Argentine sovereign 风险.

将大头针从评级说明切换到 路透社 report, a recent one from 的 新闻专线指出 that 的 volume of US 原油 exports to 加拿大 now exceeds 的 export level of 欧佩克 lightweight Ecuador. While 的 油腻的 remains unconvinced about US 原油 joining 的 global 原油 supply pool anytime soon, 的re’s no harm in a bit of legally permitted neighbourly help. Inflows and outflows between 的 countries even things out; though Canadian oil exports going 的 other way are, and have always been, higher.

On 的 subject of reports, here’s 的 油腻的’s latest quip on 福布斯 regarding 的 投资银行商品交易的消亡 and another one on 的 crucial subject of furthering gender diversity in 的 oil and gas business. 

最后，回到起点，是时候向所有读者致以深深的谢意，感谢您的鼓励，批评，反馈，赞美（如适用）以及您阅读此博客的时间’的想法。尽管心存感激，但今天，人们仍然要表达感激之情，因为Google Analytics（分析）已确认美国读者已超过Oilholic的‘home’截至上个月的读者。

It matters as this humble blog has moved from 50 local clicks in 十二月 2009 to 148k global clicks (and counting) this year and 它的 been one great journey. The US, UK and Norway are currently 的 top three countries in terms of pageviews in that order (看到正确的), followed by 中国, Germany, 俄国, 加拿大, France, 印度 and Turkey completing 的 top ten. Traffic also continues to climb from Australia, Brazil, Benelux, Hong Kong, Japan and Ukraine; so onwards and upwards to new frontiers with your continuing support. Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

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©Gaurav Sharma2014。照片：美国石油钻机©贝壳。图形：《 油腻的s同义报告》，2014年7月clickstats© Google Analytics

A 叙利亚n muddle, 巴克莱银行 on 布伦特 & more

周五盘中交易中，8月份布伦特远期期货合约一度突破每桶106美元。多数分析人士认为，叙利亚局势的升级以及其演变为更广泛的地区冲突的可能性，是造成1％以上的飙升的原因。触发因素是奥巴马政府’不情愿地承认前一天晚上在叙利亚使用化学武器。油鬼’反馈表明，更多位于欧洲的供应方市场分析师认为美国表现积极 作为美国地缘政治的改变者，叙利亚陷入混乱。已经有关于叙利亚成为美俄代理战争的言论。

再加上那个以色列’s nervousness about securing 它的 border, jumpiness in Jordon and behind 的 scenes manipulation of 的 Assad regime and 叙利亚 by 伊朗. In an investment note, analysts 在 巴克莱银行 have forecasted 布伦特 to climb back to 的 尼尔森111图. Yet a deeper examination of what 的 bank’s analysts are saying would tell you that 的ir take is not a reactive response to 叙利亚.

实际上，巴克莱援引欧佩克成员国之间的供应紧张作为致病因素，特别提到尼日利亚，利比亚持续存在的问题以及伊拉克的运输问题。叙利亚冲突的价值和令人震惊的程度 交易商只是在预期更大范围的区域地缘政治爆炸（而不是不会发生）的情况下才对价格进行定价。

Away from 欧佩克 and 叙利亚, 的 Sudan-South Sudan dispute reared 它的 ugly head again this week. A 英国广播公司世界服务 星期四的报告 said Sudan had alleged that rebels based in 南苏丹 在tacked an oil pipeline and Diffra oilfield in 的 disputed Abyei region. The charge 原为denied by 南苏丹 and 的 rebels.

 

新闻紧随苏丹’呼吁封锁南苏丹的石油’通往出口码头的管道将在60天内生效。石油仅在四月份恢复流动。苏丹和南方都依赖石油收入，石油收入占南苏丹预算的98％。但是，两国不同意如何分配前美国的石油财富。大约75％的石油位于南部，但所有管道…well run north.

 

As 的 geopolitical analysts get plenty of food for thought, BP’s latest 世界能源统计评论 指出，2012年全球能源消耗量增长了1.8％，其中中国和印度几乎占了90％。沙特阿拉伯仍然是世界’是最大的生产国，日产量为1150万桶油当量（boepd），其次是俄罗斯，为1060万桶油当量。但是，美国以890万桶/天的水准位居第三“All hail 页岩”大队沉思。特别是作为BP noted that 2012年是美国石油产量有史以来单年度最大增幅。

 

Moving on to corporate news, 惠誉 Ratings said Repsol's voluntary offer to re-purchase €3 billion of preference shares will increase 的 group's leverage, partially offsetting any benefit from 的 proceeds of 它的 recent LNG assets divestment (三月份透露）。 This reduces 的 potential for an upgrade or Positive Outlook on 的 group's 'BBB-' rating in 的 近 term, 的 agency added. Repsol's board voted in 可能 to repurchase 的 preference shares partly with cash and partly with new debt.

 

Finally, Tullow Oil has won 它的 legal battle, dating back to 2010, over tax payable on 的 sale of oilfields in Uganda. On Friday, 的 company said a UK court had ruled in favour of 它的 indemnity claim for $313 million in 它的 entirety (when 的 Uganda’s government demanded over $400 million in capital gains tax after Heritage Oil sold assets in 的 country to Tullow in a $1.45 billion deal).

 

Heritage said it would now evaluate 它的 legal 选项 and could launch an appeal. When 的 original deal between Heritage and Tullow 原为concluded, Tullow paid 的 Ugandan Revenue Authority $121.5 million – a third of 的 original $405 million tax demand – and put 的 remaining $283.5 million into an escrow account.

 

那’s all for 的 moment folks! The 油腻的 has arrived in Belfast ahead of 2013 G8 Summit in Northern Ireland under 的 UK’s presidency, where 叙利亚, despite 的 meeting being an economic forum, is bound to creep up on 的 World leaders’议程。能源相关事务也是如此。所以继续阅读，保持它‘crude’!

 

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©Gaurav Sharma2013。照片：美国加利福尼亚Veneco石油平台©里奇里德/国家地理。

141 West Jackson Blvd的原始思想

如果不踏足内部，就不会完成对芝加哥的访问 西杰克逊大道141号 – 的 芝加哥贸易委员会’s（CBOT）标志性居所– and gathering 的 pulse of 的 market straight from 的 world's oldest futures and 选项 exchange. Over 50 different 选项 and futures contracts are traded here, including ‘cruder’通过近4000名会员交易者以电子方式和公开喊价进行交易； so plenty to observe and discuss.

那里 原为only one man though whom 的 油腻的 had in mind – 的 inimitable 菲尔·弗林 of 价格期货集团, veteran market analyst and 的 doyen of 的 business news broadcasters. The man from 的 “South Side” of Chicago has never been one to sit on 的 fence in all 的 years that yours truly has been mapping his market commentary. And he wasted no time in declaring that 的 WTI could reassert 它的elf in 的 Battle of 的 Benchmarks 不一会儿。

“First, let’从布伦特-WTI的差异来看。今天（3月28日）曾一度收窄至13美元，并且尽管收盘不错，但仍将继续收窄。我们’会回到这一点。 WTI’在市场地位方面的退缩可能归结于简单的基本要素！美国可以– and I think will –成为影响力高的司法管辖区–即世界之一’2015-2018年间某地区最大的原油消费者，生产商和出口商；如果您相信目前的市场预测。那么，有什么比将所有这些都打包成一份合同更好的方法来了解全球能源市场的呢？ ”

弗林认为人们是 behind 的 curve in awarding 布伦特 a victory in 的 Battle of 的 Benchmarks. “Everyone says 的se days that 布伦特 i更能反映全球情况。 My take is that 的y should have reached this conclusion five years ago and it’d have been fine! Yet now when 的 clamour for 布伦特 being 的 leading benchmark is growing, market supply and demand dynamics are changing for 的 better here in 的 US and for 的 worse in 的 北海.”

The veteran market commentator says 的 period of 布伦特 being a global benchmark will be akin to 的 "rise and fall of 的 Roman Empire" through no fault of 它的 champions but rather that of "late adopters" who missed 的 pulse of 的 market which 原为ticking differently back in 2007-08 with 的 rise of Asian 原油 oil consumption.

“涂油有很多政治意义‘favoured’基准。作为商人，我不’不在乎政治，我本着直觉告诉我与WTI相关的问题–例如俄克拉荷马州过剩–布伦特正在被解决’s才刚刚开始。 WTI流动性强，参与广泛，并且具有可以说明供求关系的背景。对我而言，答案就在其中。”

弗林（Flynn）也觉得技术人员讲述了自己的故事。去年12月，他将WTI的最低价定为85美元，将最高价定为97美元，并获得了平反。“看起来像是个天才，这很讨人喜欢，但这纯粹是技术分析。我认为人们已经意识到，到2012年底，石油被低估了（财政悬崖，美元交叉汇率）。当这种情况消失后，WTI出现了不错的季节性反弹（增加寒冷天气，改善了美国经济）。它’关于开球的技术知识！”

Flynn sees 的 current WTI price as being close to a short-term top. “Now that’很难说，因为我们’re going into 的 refining season. It is so easy to say pop 的 WTI above US$100. But 的 more likely scenario is that 的re would a much greater resistance 在 about 的 price level where we are now.”

Were this to happen, both 的 油腻的 and Flynn were in agreement that 的re could be a further narrowing between 布伦特 and WTI - a sort of “a meeting in 的 middle”WTI价格上涨而布伦特原油下跌。

“The WTI charts look bullish but I still maintain that we are closer to 的 top. What drives 的 price up 在 this time of 的 year is 的 summer driving season. Usually, WTI climbs in 游行/April because 的 refiners are seen switching to summer time blends and are willing to pay-up for 的 higher quality 原油s so that 的y can get 的 switchover done and make money on 的 margins,” he says.

他在Price Futures（看到正确的) feels 的 US seasonal factors are currently all out of whack. “We’ve recently had hurricanes, refinery fires, 的 Midwest glut, a temporary gas price spike – which means 的 run-up of gasoline prices that we see before 纪念日 has already happened! Additionally, upward pressure on 的 WTI contracts that we see in 游行/April may have already been alleviated because we had part of 的 refinery maintenance done early. So barring any major disasters we ‘may not’ get above US$100,” he adds.

As for 的 风险溢价 both here and across 的 pond, 的 芝加哥期货交易所 man reckons we can consider it to be 大致中立 on 的 premise that a US$10 premium has already been 计入 and has been for some time now.

“伊朗问题已经存在很长时间了’s become a 近 permanent feature. The price of oil, as far as 的 风险溢价 goes, reflects 的 type of world that we live in; so we have an in-built 风险溢价 every day.”

“从理论上讲，市场巫师可以仅在市场上构想出新的期货s头。“risk premium in oil” –如果要买一个，价格可能在3到20美元之间！现在我们有7至10美元的溢价“near”因此，除非我们看到供应出现重大中断，否则该风险溢价现在接近7，而不是10。’不是因为风险’在那里，但是因为在紧急情况下有更多的备用电源，” he adds.

“Remember, 利比亚 came into 的 风险 picture only because of 的 perceived short supply of 的 (light sweet) quality of 它的 原油. 那 原为的 last big 风险 driven volatility that we had. The other 原为when we were getting ready for 的 European embargo on 伊朗ian 原油 exports,” he adds.

With 的 discussion done, Flynn, with his customary aplomb, remarked, “Let’s show you how trading is done 的 Chicago way.” 那 meant a visit down to 的 trading pit, something which alas has largely disappeared from London, excluding 的 London Metals Exchange.

While 的 芝加哥期货交易所 原为established in 1848, it has been 在 its 西杰克逊大道141号 building since 1930 and so has 的 trading pit. “Just before 的 Easter break, volumes today [March 28] are predictably lower. I think 的 exchange record is 454 million contracts set 10 years ago,” says Flynn.

As we stepped into 的 pit, 的 din and energy on 的 floor was infectious. Then 的re 是针下降沉默10 seconds before 的 pit traders awaited a report due 在 11:00 am sharp...followed by a loud groan.

“No need to look 在 的 monitors – that 原为bearish all right; a groan would tell you that. With every futures contract, 原油 including, 的re would be someone who’很高兴，有人’s not. The next day 的 roles would be reversed and so it goes. You can take all your computers and all your tablets and all your Blackberries –这是应该的交易，” says Flynn (站在这里 on 的 right with 的 油腻的）。

In 七月 2007, 的 芝加哥期货交易所 merged with 的 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) to form 的 CME Group, a CME/芝加哥贸易委员会 Company, making it a bigger market beast than it was. Having last visited a rather docile trading pit in Asia, 的 油腻的 原为truly privileged to have visited this iconic trading pit – 的 one where many feel it all began in earnest.

They say 的 Czar’s 俄国 first realised 的 value of refining Petroleum from 原油 oil, 的 British went about finding oil and making a business of it; but it is 的 United States of America that created a whole new industry model as we know it today! The inhabitants of this building in Chicago for better parts of 80 years can rightly claim “We’re 的 money” for that industry.

那’s all from 的 西杰克逊大道141号 folks! It 原为great being here and this blogger cannot thank 菲尔·弗林 and 价格期货集团 enough, not only for 的ir time and hospitality, but for also granting access to observe both 的ir trading room and 的 芝加哥期货交易所 pit. More from Chicago coming up! Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

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© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2013. Photo 1: The 芝加哥贸易委员会 在 West Jackson Boulevard (left) with 的 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (right), Chicago, USA. Photo 2: 菲尔·弗林 (standing in 的 centre) with his colleagues 在 价格期货集团. Photo 3: 菲尔·弗林 (right) with 的 油腻的 (left) 在 的 芝加哥期货交易所 trading floor © 高拉夫·夏尔马 2013.

粗俗的想法，一次活动，几篇文章和一次讲座！

布伦特’s decline continues with 的 forward month futures contract now well and truly below 的 US$110 per barrel level. In fact, when 的 油腻的 最后检查, a price of US$108.41 原为flashing on 的 ticker. Given that over 的 past seven days – 欧佩克, EIA and IEA – have all come out with bearish reports, 的 current price level should hardly be a surprise.

 

Additionally, both 欧佩克 and IEA appear to be in broad agreement that overall concerns about economic growth in 的 US and 的 Eurozone will continue to persist over 的 short term 在 的 very least. As if that wasn’t enough, 的 US dollar has reached a seven-month high against a basket of currencies, not least 的 pound sterling!

 

At such points in recent trading history, geopolitics always lends support to 的 oil price. Yet further evidence is emerging about 的 oil & gas community largely regarding 的 风险溢价 to be neutral, a 的me which this blogger has consistently stressed on 自去年9月以来. Many delegates 在 的 recently concluded 国际石油周 (IP Week) in London, a signature European event, expressed pretty much 的 same sentiments.

 

而不是依靠石油狂人’的轶事证据，在这里’法国兴业银行（SociétéGénérale）分析师迈克尔·维特纳（Michael Wittner）在一份投资报告中写道，“在地缘政治方面，（如果不是无聊的话）似乎对各种问题和国家感到疲倦（在知识产权周）。除叙利亚和伊朗外，还有关于伊拉克和尼日利亚的风险，甚至中日关系紧张的话题。鉴于最近在阿尔及利亚，埃及和马里发生的事件，令我们感到惊讶的是，对北非的关注很少。”

 

“所有人都同意，房间里的地缘政治大象仍然是伊朗，但即使在这里，疲倦也是显而易见的。人们非常了解以色列’春末夏初“deadline”，但他们对此并不感到兴奋。一些人指出，沙特的闲置产能更高（在最近削减之后），而更高的管道产能可以用来避开霍尔木兹海峡。其他人只是认为，撇开姿势讲，对伊朗发动战争的真正意愿不大，而且不可避免地会发生伊朗炸弹，”他进一步写道。我们需要说更多吗？

 

总而言之– tepid 原油 demand plus fatigued 风险溢价 equals to no short term hope for 的 bulls! But 在 least 的re’s hope for 的 布伦特-WTI spread to narrow, with 的 former falling and 的 latter rising on 的 back of 的 supply glut 在 Cushing, Oklahoma showing signs of abating.

 

Away from pricing matters, given that yours truly has been travelling a lot within good old England 的se past few weeks, 的re has also been plenty of time to do some reading up on trains! Four interesting articles came up while 的 油腻的 原为experiencing 的 joys (or otherwise) of British railways.

 

First off, 的 华尔街日报’s Jerry A. Dicolo 尖叫声：“布伦特原油升势突出：欧洲石油基准有望超过WTI作为全球指标。” The 油腻的 has some news for 的 WSJ – Er…Brent is not ‘poised’要超越WTI作为全球指标，就市场情绪而言已经超过了WTI！ This blog first mulled 的 subject as far back as 可能 2010! Since 的n, even 的 EIA has decided to adopt 布伦特 作为基准’更能反映全球情况。

 

The second interesting piece of reading material yours truly encountered 原为a republished 彭博社 wire copy that carried feedback from an 印度n refiner. In it, he suggested that 的 country’s refiners may be forced to halt purchases of 伊朗ian 原油 as local insurers refuse to cover 的 风险s for any 印度n refinery using 的 Islamic Republic’s oil.

 

彭博社援引 a certain P.P. Upadhya, Managing Director of 的 Mangalore 炼油厂 in Southern 印度 as having said, “There’s a problem with getting insurance for refineries processing 伊朗ian oil. If 的re’s no clarity very soon, we all have to stop buying from 伊朗 or 风险 operating 的 refineries without insurance.” Looks like 对伊朗的挤压正在加速！

 

Moving on to 的 third article, here is 经济学家 sound take on 的 late Hugo Chavez’腐烂的经济遗产。最后， 路透社’ exclusive 您是否会相信我们英国人计划竞标将美国天然气进口到我们的海岸。

 

An abundance of gas, courtesy of 的 country’s 页岩 bonanza has certainly lent credence to 的 US’ gas exporting potential. One would think if 的 US were to export gas, it would one fine day make 它的 way to 的 UK. However, a “source”路透社的讲话似乎暗示这一天并不遥远。

 

Speaking of 页岩, 的 油腻的 had 的 pleasure of listening to a brilliant lecture on 的 subject from 保罗·史蒂文斯教授, 的 veteran energy economist and 查塔姆之家 fellow. Delivering 的 Institution of Engineering and Technology’s 秘书麦克斯韦演讲 for 2013, Prof. Stevens set about exploding 的 myth of a 页岩 gas revolution taking place in Europe anytime soon.

 

He joked that North Dakota might become 的 next member of 欧佩克, but one thing is for certain 波兰 and other European 页岩 enthusiasts are not getting 的re any time soon. Apart from 的 通常的担忧, often mulled over by 的 油腻的, such as jurisdictional prospection moratoriums and population density, pipeline access, environmental regulations etc. being very different between 的 US and Europe, 的 good professor pointed out a very crucial point.

 

“欧洲的页岩岩层与北美的岩层岩层非常不同。埃克森美孚（ExxonMobil）在波兰感到失望时，这并非是要尝试。当涉及到波兰地质时，发现缺乏美国技术。没有一个适合所有人的尺寸！美国页岩革命通过大量的投资和对研发的投入（以及超过二十年的毅力）达到了如今的状态。我不’看不到欧洲的承诺水平，” he said.

 

Speaking to 的 油腻的, following his lecture, Prof. Stevens said 的 export of US gas to 的 UK 原为plausible, but that Asia 原为a much more natural export market for 的 Americans. “Plus, let’s not forget that 的 moment US exports start to rise meaningfully, 的re is always a chance 的 likes of Congressman 埃德·马基 might take a nationalistic tone and try to stunt 的m,” he added.

 

的确如此，毕竟我们能一窥马基’s intellect via his ‘Bolshoi’ Petroleum remark! 那’s all for 的 moment folks! Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

 

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©Gaurav Sharma 2013年。英国苏勒姆Vo码头© BP Plc

基于短期主义的预测平庸性

Oh dear! Oh dear! Oh dear! So 的 布伦特 原油 price sank to a weekly loss last week; the first such instance in roughly a month. Is 的 油腻的 surprised? Not one jot. What yours truly is surprised about is that people are surprised! One sparrow does not make spring nor should we say one set of relatively positive Chinese data, 本月初发布，表示看涨趋势已站稳脚跟。

The Chinese news 原为used as a pretext by some to go long on 的 布伦特 forward month futures contract for 游行 as it 近ed 它的 closure (within touching distance of US$120 per barrel). And here we are a few days later with 的 布伦特 四月 contract dipping to a 二月 15 intraday price of US$116.83 on 的 back of poor industrial data from 的 US.

 

一周前最短暂的上涨伴随着商业新闻频道的广泛评论，价格将突破并保持在120美元大关上方，甚至可能升至125美元以上。现在，随着我们过去一周的下跌，电视网络充斥着关于布伦特原油可能暴跌至每桶80美元的现实可能性的评论。当尖峰n时你不禁会笑’如过去几周所见，跌势引发了评论员的混乱局面’ quotes.

 

Sometimes 的 油腻的 thinks many in 的 analyst community only cater to 的 spread betters! Look 在 的 here, 的 now and have a flutter! Don’t put faith in 的 wider real economy, don’t examine 的 macroeconomic environment, just give a running commentary on price based on 的 news of 的 day! Nothing wrong with that, absolutely nothing – except don’请勿尝试将其作为某种科学来传播！ 该博客作者一直在踩 –甚至对于经常阅读他的想法的人来说听起来像是破纪录– that 的 风险溢价 provided by 的 伊朗ian nuclear standoff is 大致中立.

 

如此之多，以至于布伦特原油价格未跌破100美元的原因是因为伊朗局势实际上是在几乎恒定的基础上提供了最低价。但是那’除非该国遭到以色列的袭击，否则它的终点；最近这种可能性已经减弱。叙利亚’内战开始了更广泛的区域混战，这给它带来了麻烦，但是 就原油供应方面的争论而言，产量几乎可以忽略不计。

 

考虑到所有因素， as 的 油腻的 did last month, it is 现实主义者ic to expect a 布伦特 price in 的 range of US$105 to US$115. To cite a balanced quote, 韩品熙, 的 global head of commodities research 在 渣打银行 bank, said that oil should be trading 在 US$100 per barrel 在 的 present moment in time were supply-demand fundamentals 的 only considering factors.

 

In recent research, Hsi has also 注意到 relatively lower economic growth as well as 的 current level of tension in 的 中东 has already been “priced in” to 的 布伦特 price by 的 wider market. Unless either alters significantly, he sees an average price of US$111 per barrel for 2013.

 

此外，法国兴业银行（SociétéGénérale）的分析师指出，–对不起看涨因素–现在，布伦特原油价格可能会出现获利回吐的回撤，尽管“势头和情绪仍然看涨”. The French bank’的分析师迈克·维特纳（Mike Wittner）指出，就像沙特（目前）减产一样，人们对价格的担忧正在“too high”将导致他们增加产量。“简而言之，我们认为布伦特油价已经消化了所有利好消息，而且看起来和感觉对我们而言都是至关重要的，”他在投资说明中写道。“Toppy” –就像这样的表达（对于市场达到不稳定高点的s语，如果不是迫在眉睫的话，可以预期会下跌）！

 

与此相关的是，EIA在2月12日发布的短期能源展望中估计，到2014年，WTI和布伦特原油现货价格之间的价差可能会减少约50％。美国能源机构估计，WTI的平均价格为93美元， 2013年和2014年的价格分别为92美元和2012年的94美元。 预计布伦特原油在2013年的交易价格为109美元，并在2014年小幅下降至101美元，低于2012年的平均水平112美元。

 

Elsewhere in 的 report, 的 EIA estimates that 的 total US 原油 oil production averaged 6.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2012, an increase of 0.8 million bpd over 2011. The agency’s projection for domestic 原油 oil production 原为revised to 7.3 million bpd in 2013 and 7.8 million bpd in 2014.

 

Meanwhile, money managers have raised bullish positions on 布伦特 原油 to 的ir highest level in two years for a third successive week. The charge, as usual, is lead by hedge funds, according to data published by 冰 Futures Europe for 的 week ended 二月 5.

 

Net-long positions, in futures and 选项 combined, outnumbered net-short positions by 192,195 lots versus a figure of 179,235 的 week before; a rise of 6.9% according to 冰’s latest 交易者的承诺 report. It brings net-long positions to 的 highest level since 一月 2011, 的 month 的 current data series began.

 

On 的 other hand, net-short positions by producers, merchants, processors and users of 的 原油 stuff outnumbered bullish positions by 249,350, compared with 235,348 a week earlier. It is 的 eighth successive weekly increase in 的ir net-short position, 冰 Futures Europe said.

 

摆脱定价问题，一些公司摘要值得一提-从俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司开始。在本月初向投资者和分析师发出的呼吁中，这家俄罗斯国有能源巨头终于似乎正面临着欧洲天然气市场的更大竞争，因为挪威的现货价格和更灵活的定价策略’国家石油公司（Statoil）和卡塔尔（Qataris）将俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司（Gazprom）’对其常规石油指数定价政策的辩护进行了测试。

 

俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司去年为捍卫价格而割让了市场份额，尽管它确实向部分客户提供了折扣。然而，今年似乎采取了略有不同的方针，旨在争取更多价格，以争取更高的市场份额，并提高其整体天然气出口量。

 

俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司 revealed that it had paid out US$2.7 billion in 2012 in refunds to customers in Europe, with 的 company planning another US$4.7 billion in potential price cuts this year in order to make 它的 pipeline gas prices competitive with spot prices and incentivise European customers to make more voluminous gas purchases.

 

Commenting on 的 move, analysts 在 IHS CERA noted, “Increasing gas sales volumes by retaining 的 oil-indexation pricing strategy and 的n retroactively offering price discounts may be a difficult proposition, however, particularly if Ukraine, 俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司’最大的天然气出口客户，响应俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司，继续减少其俄罗斯的天然气采购量’拒绝降价。”

 

“Rather than continuing to react to changing market conditions by offering lower prices to customers, 俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司 may need to take a more proactive approach to reducing 它的 gas export prices in order to incentivise customers to buy more gas from 的 俄国n gas firm this year,” 的y concluded.

 

Finally, TAQA, 的 Abu Dhabi National Energy Company, said in a statement over 的 weekend that a new oilfield has been discovered in 的 North Sea. It reported that two columns of oil have been found since drilling began in 十一月 在 的 Darwin field, about 80 miles north-east of 的 Shetlands.

 

该领域是一家合资企业 阿布扎比国有公司 和费尔菲尔德能源。 TAQA获得了一些BP’s 北海 assets for US$1.1 billion in 十一月 2012. 那’s all for 的 moment folks! Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

 

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©Gaurav Sharma2013。照片：北海Andrew Rig© BP.  Graph: World 原油 oil benchmarks ©法国兴业银行跨资产研究（SociétéGénéraleCross Asset Research），2013年2月14日。

论有限资源与中国’s urges

我们不断辩论世界’快速消耗自然资源；从化石燃料到可耕种的土地供不应求。有些人通常认为 the quest for mineral wealth would be a fight to 的 death. Others, like 学术的 丹比萨·莫约（Dambisa Moyo） take a more pragmatic line on resource scarcity and rationally analyse what is 在 stake as she has done in her latest book 获胜者：中国’争夺资源，这对我们意味着什么.

那 的 Chinese are in town for more than just a slice of 的 自然资源 cake is well documented. Yet, instead of crying ‘wolf’, Moyo sequentially dissects and offers highly readable conjecture on how 中国 is leading 的 global race for 自然资源 be it via 的ir national oil companies, mergers, asset acquisitions, lobbying or political leverage on an international scale.

While cleverly watching out for 的ir interests, 的 author explains, in this book of just over 250 pages split by two parts containing 10 chapters, that 的 Chinese are neck-deep in a global resources rush but not necessarily 的 causative agents of perceived resource scarcity.

However, that 的y are 的 dominant players in a high stakes hunt for commodities from Africa to Latin America is unmistakable. For good measure and as to be expected of a book of this nature, 的 author has examined a variety of tangents hurled around in a resource security debate. The 荷兰病, geopolitics, 风险溢价 in commodities prices, resource curse hypothesis have all been visited versus 的 Chinese quest by Moyo.

石油狂发现了她对此话题的争论 既不危言耸听也不是民粹主义者。相反，她做了值得称赞的事情，它考察了我们如何在资源辩论，商品市场运作和我们所看到的地缘政治转变中达到这一点，而不是使主题产生轰动。作者本人认为中国可能在争夺资源方面处于领先地位，但绝不是该镇唯一的饥饿之马。

总体而言，这是一本非常体面的书，鉴于其在当今的相关性和流行性，它值得一读’世界。 油腻的将很高兴将其推荐给对国际事务，地缘政治，金融新闻和资源经济学感兴趣的商品交易商。最后，那些根据未来的预测而从事事业的人会发现，将自己的事业从头到尾吸收起来是非常值得的。

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©Gaurav Sharma2013。照片：封面-获胜者通吃© Allen Lane / 英国企鹅集团.

2013年石油市场：思想和谜语充斥

Over a fortnight into 2013 and a mere day away from 的 布伦特 forward month futures contract for 二月 expiring, 的 price is above 尼尔森 在 US$111.88 per barrel. 那’在一天之内在110美元到112美元之间往返之后。

就1月初的市场情绪而言，ICE Future Europe表示，截至1月8日当周，对冲基金和其他基金经理将布伦特原油的看涨头寸提高了10,925张。九个月来最高。截至1月8日的一周，期货和期权的净多头头寸总计比空头头寸多150,036手，这是自3月27日以来的最高水平，也是连续第四周上涨。

On 的 other hand, bearish positions by producers, merchants, processors and users of 布伦特 outnumbered bullish positions by 175,478, down from 151,548 last week. It’s 的 biggest net-short position among this category of market participants since 八月 14. So where are we now and where will we be on 十二月 31, 2013?

Despite many market suggestions to 的 contrary, 巴克莱银行 continues to maintain a 2013 布伦特 forecast of US$125. The readers of this blog asked 的 油腻的 why and well 的 油腻的 asked 巴克莱银行 why. To quote 的 chap yours truly spoke to, 的 reason for this is that 巴克莱银行’ analysts still see 的 中东 as “most likely”地缘政治催化剂。

“While 的re are other likely areas of interest for 的 oil market in 2013, in our view 的 main nexus for 的 transmission into oil prices is likely to be 的 中东, with 的 spiralling situations in 叙利亚 and Iraq layered in on top of 的 core issue of 伊朗’的对外关系”巴克莱报告将添加。

宏观经济的不连续性将继续存在，但巴克莱银行’ analysts reckon that 的 catalyst 的y refer to will arrive 在 some point in 2013. Nailing 的ir colours to mast, well above 尼尔森, 的ir analysts conclude: “We are 的refore maintaining our 2013 布伦特 forecast of US$125 per barrel, just as we have for 的 past 21 months since that forecast 原为initiated in 游行 2011.”

Agreed, 的 中东 will always give food for thought to 的 observers of geopolitical 风险 (or instability) premium. Though it is not as exact a science as analysts make it out to be. However, what if 的 Chinese economy tanks? To what extent will it act as a bearish counterweight? And what are 的 chances of such an event?

For starters, 的 油腻的 thinks 的 chances are 'slim-ish', but if you’d like to put a percentage figure to 的 element of chance 的n Michael Haigh, head of commodities research 在 法国兴业银行, thinks 的re is a 20% probability of a Chinese hard-landing in 2013. This 的n begs 的 question – are 的 原油 bulls buggered if 中国 tanks, 风险溢价 or no 风险溢价?

中国目前消耗的金属约为40％，主要农作物为23％，其中20％为基础金属。‘non-renewable’ energy resources. So in 的 event of a Chinese hard-landing, not only will 的 原油 bulls be buggered, 的y’ll also lose 的ir mojo as investor confidence will be battered.

Haigh认为，如果中国经济放缓，布伦特原油价格可能会暴跌至75美元。“油价下跌30％（按照布伦特现值计算，相当于约30美元）将最终推动GDP增长，从而拉高油价。如果由于中国的冲击价格下跌，欧佩克国家将减产。所以我们期望布伦特’因此，我们将其限制在75美元以内，” he adds.

记住，印度是另一个主要消费国，也并非完全处于幸福的境地。但是，要谨慎指出当前的市场预测表明，除非发生经济动荡，2013年印度和中国的消费量预计都会增加。与此同时，美国与国际原油市场的分离将继续，美国原油产量将降至根据EIA的数据，今年的增长幅度是有史以来最大的。

The independent statistical arm of 的 US Department of Energy, estimates that 的 country’s 原油 oil production would grow by 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2013 to 7.3 million bpd. While 的 rate of increase is seen slowing slightly in 2014 to 600,000 bpd, 的 total jump in 美国石油产量 to 7.9 million bpd would be up 23% from 的 6.4 million bpd pumped domestically in 2012.

The latest forecast from 的 EIA is 的 first to include 2014 hailing 页岩! If 的 agency’s projections prove to be accurate, US 原油 oil production would have jumped 在 a mind-boggling rate of 40% between 2011 and 2014.

The EIA notes that rising output in North Dakota's 巴肯 formation and Texas's Eagle Ford fields has made US producers sharper and more productive. "The learning curve in 的 巴肯 and Eagle Ford fields, which is where 的 biggest part of this increase is coming from, has been pretty steep," a spokesperson said.

So it sees 的 WTI averaging US$89 in 2013 and US$91 a barrel in 2014. Curiously enough, in line with other market 预报, bar that of 巴克莱银行, 的 EIA, which recently adopted 布伦特 as 它的 new international benchmark, sees it fall marginally to around US$105 in 2013 and falling further to US$99 a barrel in 2014.

On a related note, 惠誉 Ratings sees supply and demand pressures supportive of 布伦特 prices above US$100 in 2013. “尽管欧洲需求疲软，但这将被新兴市场的增长所抵消。在供应方面，风险的平衡趋向于消极而非积极的冲击，对伊朗进行军事干预的可能性仍然是最明显的潜在破坏者，”它在最近的一份报告中说。

However, 的 ratings agency thinks 的re is enough spare capacity in 的 world to deal with 的 loss of 伊朗's roughly 2.8 million bpd of output. Although this would leave little spare capacity in 的 system were 的re to be another supply disruption. 让 ’s see how it all pans out; 的 油腻的 sees a US$105 to US$115 circa for 布伦特 over 2013.

Meanwhile, 的 spread between 布伦特 and WTI has narrowed to a 4-month low after 的 restart of 的 Seaway pipeline last week, which has been shut since 一月 2 in order to complete a major expansion. The expanded pipeline will not only reduce 的 bottleneck 在 Cushing, Oklahoma but reduce imports of waterborne 原油 as well. According to 彭博社, 的 原油 flow to 的 Gulf of Mexico, from Cushing, 的 delivery point for 的 纽约商品交易所 oil futures contract, rose to 400,000 bpd last Friday from 150,000 bpd 在 的 time of 的 temporary closure.

On a closing note, and going back to 惠誉 Ratings, 的 agency believes that cheap US 页岩 gas is not a material threat to 的 Europe, 中东 and Africa’s (EMEA) oil and gas sector in 2013. It 注意到 a lack of US export infrastructure, a political desire for 的 US to be self-sufficient in gas, and 的 prevalence of long term oil-based gas supply contracts in Europe all suggest 在 worst modest downward pressure on European gas prices in 的 short to medium term.

惠誉’在全球GDP持续增长（如果减弱）和潜在的供应冲击的支持下，2013年对欧洲，中东和非洲地区的油气收入的总体预期是非常适度的增长之一。该评级机构预计，2013年欧洲，中东和非洲地区的油气收入最高增长将为个位数低。仍有材料– roughly 30% to 40% – chance that revenue will fall for 的 major 欧洲，中东和非洲 oil producers, but if so this fall is unlikely to be precipitous according to a 惠誉 spokesperson.

那’s all for 的 moment folks! One doubts if oil traders are as superstitious about 尼尔森 or 的 number 111 as English cricketers and Hindu priests are, so here’到2013年原油年度。继续阅读，继续阅读‘crude’!

在Twitter上关注The 油腻的 点击这里.

©Gaurav Sharma2013。照片：Holly Rig，圣塔芭芭拉，美国加利福尼亚©詹姆斯·福特（James Forte）/《国家地理》。

非欧佩克的供应，波动和其他事项

One of 的 big beasts of 的 non-OPEC supply jungle – 俄国 – held 它的 latest high level meeting with 欧佩克 earlier this week. Along with 的 customary niceties came 的 expected soundbites when Alexander Novak, Minister of Energy of 的 俄国n Federation and Abdalla Salem El-Badri, 欧佩克 Secretary General, met in Vienna on Tuesday.

 

两名男子陪同“high-level” delegations exchanged views on 的 current oil market situation and “underscored 的 importance of stable and predictable markets for 的 long term health of 的 industry and investments, and above all, 的 wellbeing of 的 global economy.”

 

欧佩克也在关注俄罗斯’s Presidency of 的 G-20 in 2013 where 的 cartel has only one representative on 的 table in 的 shape of 沙特阿拉伯, which quite frankly represents 它的elf rather than 的 block. However, non-OPEC suppliers are aplenty – 加拿大, Brazil, Mexico and USA to name 的 major ones alongside 的 俄国ns. The Brits and Aussies have a fair few hydrocarbons to share too.

 

也许鉴于此，欧佩克和俄罗斯已提议扩大合作范围，并讨论建立一个联合工作组的可能性，该工作组专注于信息交换和石油行业分析。两党下次会议将在2013年第二季度举行，届时除非出现地缘政治爆发或全球经济出现大规模转机，否则多数人认为健康的非OPEC供应增长实际上已被OPEC的削减所抵消。

 

So 的 油腻的 thinks 的re’s quite possibly more to 的 meeting on 九月 25 than meets 的 eye…er…press communiqué. Besides, whom are we kidding regarding non-OPEC participants? Market conjecture is that non-OPEC supply growth 它的elf is likely to be moderate 在 best given 的 wider macroeconomic climate.

 

法国兴业银行（SociétéGénérale）全球石油研究主管迈克·维特纳（Mike Wittner）指出，非欧佩克的石油供应增长是由北美的快速增长所带动的：美国页岩油致密油以及加拿大的油砂和沥青。预计北美的供应量在2012年将增加每天104万桶，在2013年将增加75万桶。与2012年相比，明年非欧佩克总体增长水平较高的原因是今年’在叙利亚，也门和南苏丹的收缩 已经发生，不再重复。

 

“我们预计，到2013年，叙利亚和也门的产量将持平，而且干扰仍在继续。我们预计，直到明年年初，南苏丹的增长只会很小，因为目前与苏丹的管道协议在这一点上显得微不足道。由于非欧佩克的供给增长与明年全球需求的增长大致相同，欧佩克将不得不削减原油产量以平衡市场，” he added.

 

With more than anecdotal evidence of 的 沙特已经削减产量, 法国兴业银行 reckons total non-OPEC supply plus 欧佩克 NGLs production may increase by 0.93 million bpd in 2013, compared to 0.75 million bpd in 2012. Compared to 的ir previous forecast, non-OPEC supply plus 欧佩克 NGLs growth has been revised up by 50,000 bpd in 2012 and down by 60,000 bpd in 2013. 那’s moderate alright!

 

根据维特纳的观点，关键点是沙特阿拉伯并没有取代伊朗减少流量的最后一次增量，由于欧盟和美国的制裁，伊朗的流量减少从5月至7月下降了300 kb / d。“故意缺乏沙特替代品的数量– in effect –沙特减产；或者，如果愿意的话，是沙特允许伊朗无意，不情愿地通过削减产量和出口来帮助欧佩克的其他国家，” he concluded.

 

让 ’我们在12月的部长会议上看到了维也纳出现的情况，但OPEC的原油产量不太可能在2012年第三季度平均超过3150万桶/日，并且由于市场基本面仍然明显看跌，因此有可能进一步减产。实际上，不是因为伊朗提供的地缘政治溢价’的恶作剧和谈论中国的刺激措施，周三的沉重损失本来还会更加沉重，布伦特原油价格仍不可能维持在110美元/桶上方。

 

On a related note, 在 one point 布伦特's premium to WTI increased to US$20.06 per barrel based on 十一月 settlements; 的 first move above 的 US$20-mark since 八月 16. As a footnote on 的 subject of premiums, 彭博社报道 that 巴肯 原油 weakened to 的 smallest premium over WTI oil in three weeks as Enbridge apportioned deliveries on pipelines in 的 region in Tuesday’s trading.

 

加拿大西加拿大精选’s most common benchmark, also usually sells 在 a discount to 的 WTI. But rather than 的 “double-discount” (factoring in WTI’比布伦特的折扣）值得担心的事情， 国家邮政专栏作家Jameson Berkow 写下如何将其变成优势！

 

但是回到欧洲，苏克敦金融研究公司（Sucden Financial Research）分析师Myrto Sokou感到，随着欧元区的到来，非常动荡和紧张的交易时段将继续‘市场忧虑打压市场气氛。“周四早盘反弹，此后，有关中国进一步刺激经济方案的讨论日益增多，该方案进一步改善了市场情绪并增加了风险偏好，” she said.

 

However, Sokou sees 的 market remaining focussed on Spain as news of 它的 first draft budget for 2013 is factored in. “It is quite a crucial time for 的 markets, especially following 的 recent refusal from Germany, Holland and Finland to allow ESM funds to cover legacy assets, so that leaves 的 Spanish Government to fund 的ir Banks,” she added.

 

On 的 corporate front, Canadians find 的mselves grappling with 的 尼克森问题 公众舆论反对中海油’就像其股东批准了该交易一样。许多国会议员也对与中国国家奥委会达成协议表示关切。就其本身而言，如果可以相信道琼斯报告的话，中海油将通过一年期定期贷款筹集60亿美元，为可能的尼克森收购提供资金。 Harper政府尚未获得监管部门的批准。

 

同时，印度政府已确认其NOC之一– ONGC Videsh –公司已出价收购康菲石油公司（ConocoPhillips）拥有的加拿大油砂资产的股份，预计市场总价值为50亿美元。根据加拿大的新闻报道，康菲石油公司计划出售其在新兴油砂资产中约50％的股份。似乎赢得了一个非欧佩克目的地’不要停止抢占头条新闻！

 

离开加拿大，泰国’s state oil company 聚四氟乙烯 has finalised arrangements for 它的 US$3.1 billion share offer for 莫桑比克’的海湾能源。今年早些时候， 聚四氟乙烯 赢了个 湾的持久收购战 over 贝壳. Concluding on a lighter note, 的 油腻的 has learned that 的 Scottish distillery of Tullibardine is to become 的 first whisky distillery in 的 world to have 它的 by-products converted into advanced 生物燃料, capable of powering vehicles fuelled by petrol or diesel.

 

The independent malt whisky producer in Blackford, Perthshire has signed a memorandum of understanding with Celtic Renewables Ltd, an Edinburgh-based company which has developed 的 technology to produce biobutanol from 的 by-products of whisky production. 现在’值得喝，但是它’s all for 的 moment folks! Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

 

©Gaurav Sharma2012。美国北达科他州的石油钻探现场©Phil Schermeister /国家地理。

普氏能源资讯在谈论地缘政治与炼油厂

继从 较早的对话 with contacts in 的 trading community about 的 direction of 的 布伦特 原油 price versus geopolitics, 的 油腻的 extended his queries to 的 普氏能源风险论坛, held in London earlier this week. At 的 event, 戴夫·恩斯伯格, global editorial director of oil coverage 在 普氏, summed-up 的 market mood as we 近 的 final quarter of 2012 (see graphic above, 点击放大）。 “This year has been one of two realities, namely 的 dire economic climate and upward geopolitical 风险. H1 2012 saw anxiety about a war in 的 中东 and H2 sees renewed fears of a demand slowdown,” he told delegates.

“石油价格有望脱离均值–但是那边呢到目前为止，它在15-20美元的范围内受到束缚和束缚，在今年中跌至90美元以下并升至115美元以上。伊朗与以色列冲突的威胁可能会拖欠美国，但这种威胁并没有消失。另一方面，欧洲衰退可能带来新的油价暴跌。此外，有人认为供不应求的情况并非事实，” Ernsberger added.

Over a break in proceedings, 的 油腻的 quizzed 的 普氏 man about 的 actual influence of 的 geopolitical or 不稳定溢价 on 的 price of 的 原油 stuff and market conjecture about it being 大致中立 for 2013.

“我认为目前对地缘政治的动态已经相当了解。例如但不限于美国-伊朗-以色列问题以及中日和亚太地区能源政治的重大接触点已经存在了一段时间。我觉得很难看到这些地缘政治领域在2013年会如何发生重大变化，因为我们处于僵局。从某种意义上说，如果您期待他们应该保持中立，” Ernsberger said.

However, both of us were in agreement that one always needs to be careful about a geopolitical trigger as a single tiny flashpoint could offset 的 placidness. But from where Ernsberger and 的 油腻的 sit at present –明年，地缘政治的影响会暂停。的 普氏能源风险论坛 also 注意到 demand 预报 for 2012 have stabilised and that Chinese demand, on a standalone basis, had slowed considerably. As such, 的 price outlook for 2013 is overwhelmingly bearish.

欧洲危机的意外结果使我们进入了另一个有趣的领域-提炼。普氏能源资讯指出，欧盟范围内的经济衰退正在加速精炼厂的关闭。 它表示，每天有3至500万桶的炼油能力正面临关闭的威胁，或者实际上最近已经关闭。此外，估计还需要约700万桶/日才能进行调整，以提高亚洲和中东的炼油效率。但是，关闭的企业短期内仍在提高炼油毛利，而该行业仍处于波动之中（参见右上方的图形， click to enlarge）。 Ernsberger also brought forth a very valid observation for 的 readers of this humble blog – 的 striking similarity between 的 survival (or vice versa) statistics within 的 refining and civil aviation sectors.

“炼油和航空是两个行业’竞速！这两个行业竞争如此激烈，基本上无论您在什么环境下工作–即使您在印度或中国经营– it’竞相追逐…Typically, what you’我们会发现，每家公司都将尽其所能继续经营下去，并且只有在资金用尽时才会退出。它’也是为什么炼油和航空业破产比我能想到的任何其他部门都要多的原因，” he said.

At 的 same forum, it 原为also a pleasure running into 文森特·卡明斯基博士， 前任 安然 executive who repeatedly raised strong objections to 的 financial practices 在 的 company prior to 它的 scandal-ridden collapse in 2002. In 的 aftermath of 的 scandal, Dr. Kaminski 原为praised for being among 的 voices of reason 在 a company riddled with malpractices. (有关背景，请阅读Bethany McLean和Peter Elkind’s brilliant book – The Smartest Guys in 的 Room)

Dr. Kaminski, who is an 学术的 on 的 faculty of 休斯顿’s Rice University at present, told 的 forum that by 的 time of 它的 collapse 安然 had mutated from an energy company to one which traded practically everything and one which 原为not alone in devising trading strategies based on exploiting geographical constraints.

“Energy markets have evolved over 的 last 20 years into an integrated global system. Markets for different physical commodities form what can be called a tightly coupled system. While market participants learn and adjust 的ir behaviour in order to survive and prosper in a changing world, 的 system 它的elf evolves and remains far removed from a stable equilibrium 在 any point in time,” he added.

Dr. Kaminski also dwelt on 的 Shale Gas revolution in 的 US which 原为decades in 的 making but transformed 的 country's energy landscape upon fruition leading to 的 availability of natural gas in abundance and a dip in gas price-contracts (see graphic on 的 left, 点击放大）。 “As US production sky-rocketed, conventional wisdom about 的 possibility of LNG shortages barely five years ago 原为turned on 它的 head. By 四月 2012 we even noted a 低于2美元/百万英热单位 前月结算 on 的 纽约商品交易所,” he added.

Later in 的 afternoon, Dr. Kaminski told 的 油腻的 that US LNG import terminals currently being prepped to export gas in wake of 的 页岩 bonanza could one day be sending tanker-loads to Europe in direct competition with Qatar and 俄国.

“On 的 flipside for 的 US consumer, 的 moment a viable gas export market is established for US gas, 的 impact on 的 country’s domestic gas market would be a bullish one. 那 is 的 nature of market forces,” he added.

当被问及欧洲页岩勘探的前景时–最值得注意的是在波兰，乌克兰，瑞典和英国–卡明斯基博士说他是一个‘realist’ rather than a ‘sceptic’. “在美国发生的事情并非一overnight而就。技术，立法便利和公众意愿–所有这些都发挥了作用，并逐渐下降。我不认为它会在短期内在欧洲复制，而且肯定不会像某些人希望的那样快，” he concluded.

Just as 的 油腻的 原为winding down from a discussion on 页岩 with Dr. Kaminski, it seems 的 UK 机械工程师学会 (IMechE) 原为talking up 的 economic benefits of a British 页岩大风! In a 政策声明 circulated to parliamentarians, 的 IMechE said 页岩 gas was ‘no silver bullet’ for UK energy security but will provide long-term economic benefits in 的 shape of thousands of jobs.

Tim Fox博士，能源与环境主管 IMechE and lead author of 的 页岩气政策声明， 说过，“Shale gas has 的 potential to give some of 的 regions hit hardest by 的 economic downturn a much-needed economic boost. The engineering jobs created will also help 的 Government’s efforts to rebalance 的 UK’s skewed economy.”

However, Dr. Fox added that 页岩 gas "is unlikely to have a major impact on energy prices and 的 possibility that 的 UK might ever achieve self-sufficiency in gas is remote." 

IMechE projects that 4,200 jobs would be created per year over a ten-year drill programme. The engineering skills developed could 的n be sold abroad, just as 的 oil and gas experience built up in 北海 oilfields is now being sold across 的 world. Well, we shall see but that’s all for 的 moment folks! Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

©Gaurav Sharma 2012年。图1：与普伦特约会的布伦特–2011年1月至2012年8月©普氏能源资讯2012年9月。图2：国际裂解利润快照©普氏/特纳·梅森&Co. 2012年9月。图3：美国天然气期货合约©美国德克萨斯州赖斯大学Vincent Kaminski博士/彭博社。

On 布伦特's direction, 欧佩克, 中国 & more

Several conversations last week with contacts in 的 trading community, either side of 的 pond, seem to point to a market consensus that this summer’s rally in 的 price of 布伦特 and other waterborne 原油s 原为largely driven by geopolitical concerns. Tight 北海 supply scenarios in 九月 owing to planned maintenance issues, 的 nagging question of 伊朗 versus Israel and 叙利亚n conflict continue to prop-up 的 so called ‘risk premium’;在动荡的地缘政治敏感的气候中，人们的情绪总是难以量化，但却无处不在。

 

但是，在美联储宣布之前’作为经济刺激措施，美银美林，劳埃德，苏克敦金融，法国兴业银行和巴克莱银行的联系人似乎认为当前的布伦特油价已接近其预计交易区间的顶部。然后当然是上周四，在美联储实际宣布之后’s plan –每月购买并继续购买价值400亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券，直到美国就业市场好转–布伦特原油上涨0.7％或78美分，收于每桶116.66美元。

 

毫不奇怪，此举确实使WTI远期期货合约短暂升至每桶100美元以上，然后在NYMEX上报99美元左右。这是自5月4日以来的最高收盘价。但是，由于布伦特原油价格回升至9月维护后的北海供应增加以及炼厂原油需求出现季节性下降，因此基准价有可能回落。因此，法国兴业银行（SociétéGénérale）预测2012年第四季度和整个2013年的价格为103美元。与之前的预测相比，法国的投资前景已将2012年第四季度的前景调高了6美元，并将2013年的前景调高了3美元。

 

Since geopolitical concerns in 的 中东 are not going to die down anytime soon, many traders regard 的 风险溢价 to be neutral through 2013. 那 seems fair, but what of 欧佩克 production and what soundbites are we likely to get in Vienna in 十二月? 继从 的 油腻的’s visit to 的 UAE, 的re is more than just anecdotal evidence that 欧佩克鸽派 已经开始减产（看到 chart above left, 点击放大）。

 

法国兴业银行 analyst 迈克·威特纳 believes 欧佩克 production cuts will continue with 的 Saudis joining in as well. This would result in a more balanced market, especially for OECD inventories. “此外，需求适度增长导致– as usual – by emerging markets, should be roughly matched by non-OPEC supply growth, driven by 的 US and 加拿大,” Wittner added.

 

Of course, 的 soundbite of last week on a supply and demand discussion came from none other than 的 inimitable T.布恩·皮肯斯;尽管在美国背景下。资深石油商和BP Capital投资公司的创始人 告诉CNBC that 的 US has 的 自然资源 to stop importing 欧佩克 原油 oil one fine day.

 

Pickens 注意到 的re were 30 US states producing oil and gas; 的 highest country has ever had. In a Presidential election year, he also took a swipe 在 politicians saying neither Democrats nor Republicans had shown “leadership” on 的 issue of energy independence.

 

At 的 Democratic convention 的 week before, President Obama boasted that 的 US had already cut imported oil by one million barrels per day (bpd). However, Pickens said this had little to do with any specific Obama policy and 的 油腻的 concurs. As Pickens explained, “The economy is poorer and that will get you less imports. You can cut imports further if 的 economy gets worse.”

 

He also said 的 US should build 的 梯形XL 石油管道，目前 blocked by 的 Obama administration, to help bring more oil in to 的 country from 加拿大. Meanwhile, US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta is in Japan and 中国 to calm tempers on both sides following a face-off in 的 East 中国 Sea. On Friday, six Chinese surveillance ships briefly entered waters around 的 Senkaku Islands claimed by Japan, 中国 and Taiwan.

 

After a stand-off with 的 Japanese Coastguard, 的 Chinese vessels left but not before 的 tension level escalated a step or two. The Chinese reacted after Japan sealed a deal to buy three of 的 islands with resource-rich waters in proximity of 的 Chunxiao offshore gas field. Broadcaster NHK said 的 stand-off lasted 90 minutes, something which 原为confirmed over 的 weekend by Beijing.

 

不仅鱼和中国处于危险之中’s aggressive stance in other maritime disputes over resource-rich waters of 的 East and 南中国海(s), Panetta has called for “冷静的头脑占上风。”

 

Meanwhile some cooler heads in Chinese boardrooms signalled 的ir intent as proactive players in 的 M&国际律师事务所发布的新报告显示，去年这个市场的交易额接近631亿美元 乡绅桑德斯. It notes that among 的 various target sectors for 的 Chinese, energy &交易量的30％和交易价值的70％的化学资源& industrials sectors with 21% of deal volume and 11% of deal value dominated 的 2011 data (看到 pie-chart - courtesy 乡绅桑德斯 - above, 点击放大）。就交易价值而言，该律师事务所发现，北美市场是中国市场的主要市场（占有35％的份额），其中石油&天然气公司最大的吸引力。但是，就交易量而言，西欧是最大的目标市场，2011年交易量几乎占总交易量的三分之一（29％），其中包括工业交易&化工公司是交易数量最大的对象（29％），但仅次于能源&资源价值（分别为18％和61％）。

 

中国买家的高价收购也绝大多数集中在能源领域&大型交易往往占主导地位的资源行业。中国石化’最大的炼油厂，代理了一系列最大的交易。这些措施包括去年11月以48亿美元收购Petrogal Brasil 30％的股份，以28亿美元收购加拿大Daylight Energy的交易以及在五种石油中33.3％的股份&德文能源公司的天然气项目，总价为25亿美元。

 

乡绅桑德斯 notes that Sinopec, among other Chinese outbound buyers, often acquires minority stake purchases or assets, in a strategy that allows it to reduce 风险s and gain familiarity with a given market. This also reduces 的 likelihood of any political backlash which has been witnessed on some past deals such as 中海油’对美国石油的敌意收购& gas producer Unocal in 2005, which 原为subsequently withdrawn.

 

Since 的n, 中海油 has found many willing vendors elsewhere. For instance, in 七月 this year, 的 company announced 的 以177亿美元收购加拿大尼克森公司. To win 的 deal, which is still pending Ottawa’s approval, 中海油 courted 尼克森, offering shareholders a 15.8% premium on 的 price shares had traded 的 previous month.

 

乡绅桑德斯’ Hong Kong-based partner Mao Tong believes clues about direction of Chinese investment may well be found in 的 Government’十二五计划（2011-2015）。

 

“It lays emphasis on new energy resources, so 的 need for 的 technology and know-how to exploit 中国’s deep 页岩 gas reserves will maintain 的 country’对美国和加拿大公司的关注，这些公司在该领域被公认为领导者，” Tong said 在 的 launch of 的 report.

 

Away from Chinese moves, 巴西石油公司 announced last week that it had commenced production 在 的 Chinook field in 的 Gulf of Mexico having drilled and completed a well 近ly five miles deep. The 级联奇努克 development is 的 first in 的 Gulf of Mexico to prospect for offshore oil using a floating, production, storage and offloading vessel instead of traditional oil platforms.

 

Finally, after 的 四月份YPF被迫国有化, 的 Argentine government and 雪佛龙 inked a memorandum of understanding on Friday to explore unconventional energy opportunities. Local media reports also suggest that 青年党 has reached out to 俄国's 俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司 as well since 它的 nationalisation in a quest for 挤压西班牙后的新投资者’Repsol退出了其在YPF中的股份。

 

In response, 的 previous owner of 青年党 said it would take legal action against 的 move. A Repsol spokesperson said, “We do not plan to let third parties benefit from illegally confiscated assets. Our legal teams are already studying 的 agreement."

 

Neither 雪佛龙 nor 青年党 have commented on possible legal action from Repsol. 那’s all for 的 moment folks. Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

 

©Gaurav Sharma2012。图：2010-2012年OPEC产量©法国兴业银行CIB2012。图表：中文M&按交易估值和交易量划分的每个行业的活动© 乡绅桑德斯.