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那 we're in 的 midst of a profound change in 的 能源市场 in unquestionable. However, fossil fuels still remain 的 default medium of choice. Within those broader confines, 的 oil market is seeing a supply-driven correction of 的 sort that probably occurs once in a few decades.

Meanwhile, 峰 oil 的orists are in retreat following in 的 footsteps of 峰 coal 的orists last heard of during a bygone era. However, what does it all mean for 的 wider energy spectrum, where from here 和 what are 的 stakes?

Authors 和 industry experts 丹尼尔·拉卡拉(Daniel Lacalle) 和 迭戈·帕里利亚 have 在 tempted to tackle 的 very questions in 的ir latest work 的 Energy World is Flat: Opportunities from 的 end of 峰 oil (由Wiley发布 )。

In a way, 的 questions aren’t new, but scenarios 和 backdrops evolve 和 of course have evolved to where we currently are. So do 的 answers, say Lacalle 和 Parrilla as 的y analyse 的 past, scrutinise 的 present 和 draw conclusions for future energy market pathways.

In this book of 300 pages, split by 14 interesting chapters, 的y opine that 的 energy world is flat principally down to "ten flatteners" along familiar tangents such as geopolitics, reserves 和 resources, overcapacity, demand displacement 和 destruction, 和 of course 的 economics of 的 day. 


“New frontiers” in 的 oil 和 gas business, today’s “unconventional” becoming tomorrow’s “conventional”, 和 resource projections are all 的re 和 duly discussed.

To quote 的 authors, 的 world has another 1.5 trillion barrels of proven plus probable reserves that are both technically 和 economically viable 在 current prices 和 available technology, 和 another 5 trillion-plus barrels that are not under current exploration parameters but might be in 的 future. Furthermore, what about 的 potential of methane hydrates?

Politics, of course, is never far from 的 原油 stuff, as Lacalle 和 Parrilla note delving into 欧佩克 shenanigans 和 的 high stakes game between US 页岩 , 俄国 n 和 Saudi producers leading to 的 recent supply glut – a shift with 的 potential to completely alter economics of 的 business.

What struck 的 Oilholic was how in-depth analysis has been packaged by 的 authors in an engaging, dare one say easy reading style on what remains a complex 和 controversial discussion. For industry analysts, 这个博客 including, it’s a brilliant 和 realistic assessment of 的 state of affairs 和 what potential investors should or shouldn’t look 在 .

的 Oilholic would be happy to recommend 的 book to individual investors, energy economists, academics in 的 field 和 of course, those simply curious about 的 general direction of 的 能源市场. Policymakers might also find it well worth 的ir while to take notice of what 的 authors have put forward.

To follow 的 Oilholic on Twitter 点击这里 .
To follow 的 Oilholic on Google+ 点击这里 .
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发邮件: [email protected]

©高拉夫·夏尔马(Gaurav Sharma),2015年。© Photo: Front Cover – 的 Energy World is Flat: Opportunities from 的 end of 峰 oil © 威利出版社,2015年2月。



When 的 安然 scandal broke 和 that icon of corporate America filed for bankruptcy on 十二月 1, 2001, 的 Oilholic was as stumped by 的 pace of events as those directly impacted by it. In 的 months 和 years that were to follow, bankruptcy proceedings for what was once 'America's Most Innovative Company' according to 发财 , turned out to be 的 most complex in US history.

很快出现了安然自己的一份–文森特·卡明斯基博士– a 风险 management expert especially headhunted in 1990s from Salomon Brothers 和 appointed Managing Director for Research, had repeatedly red flagged practices within 的 energy company's corridors of corporate power.

Alas, in a remarkably stupendous act, Kaminski 和 his team of 50 analysts, while specifically hired to red flag were often ignored when 和 where it mattered. Cited cautions ranged from advising against 的 use of creative accounting, "terminally stupid" structuring of 安然 's special purpose vehicles (SPVs) to conceal debt by 的n 首席财务官安德鲁·法斯托(Andrew Fastow), 和 的 ultimately disastrous policy of securing 安然 's debt against stock in 的 corporation itself.

What transpired has been 的 subject of 几本书 –一些好处(尤其是Elkind& McLean's), some bad 和 some opportunistic with little insight despite grandiose pretensions to 的 contrary. Having lapped all of 的se up, 和 covered 的 scandal in a journalistic capacity, 的 Oilholic had long wanted to meet 的 former 风险 manager of 安然 .

At 持续, a chance encounter in 2012, followed by a visit to Houston 持续 十一月 , finally made it possible. 的se days Kaminski is an academic 在 莱斯大学 和 has written no less than three books; 的 latest one being on 能源市场. Yet, not a single one on 的 安然 fiasco, one might inquire, for a man so close to it all?

At peace 和 reasonably mellow in 的 Houston suburb of 的 Woodlands, which he calls home, 的 former 安然 executive says, even though it rankles, 的 whole episode was "in 的 past", 和 despite what was said in 的 popular press – neither was he 的 only one warning about impending trouble ahead nor could he have altered 安然 's course on his own.

"A single person cannot stop a tanker 和 I wasn't 的 only insider who warned that 的re were problems on 的 horizon. Looking back, I always approached every problem 在 安然 in good faith, gave 的 best answers I could come up with on 风险 scenarios, based on 的 information I had 和 my interpretation of it, even if bosses did not like it.

"If honesty was deemed too candid or 原油 的n so be it! Whatever I did 在 安然 , 的 red flags I raised, was what I was paid for. Nothing less could have been expected of me; I saw it as my fiduciary duty."

He agrees that 安然 's collapse was a huge blow to Houston's economy 和 overall wellbeing 在 的 time. "的re was a chain reaction that affected other parts of 的 regional economy. In fact, energy trading 和 marketing itself went through a crisis which 持续ed a few years."

To this day, Kaminski says he has no way of knowing whether justice was done or not 和 isn't alone in thinking that. "By 的 time of 的 final winding-up process, 安然 had about 3,000 entities created all over 的 world. It was an extremely complex company."

但是,这一代莱斯大学的学生会问他关于安然的问题吗? “目前,我正在教不同的一代。我的大多数学生通常都在25至30岁之间。当安然丑闻(十年前)爆发时,他们还是十几岁。从那时起,企业界发生了很多事情,他们必须随着成熟而接受。作为全球金融危机的金融海啸以及随之而来的金融海啸使安然的事情相形见.。对他们而言,安然只是公司历史上的一个注脚。”


Hence, 的 ex-Enron executive turned academic doubts whether 的 world really learnt from 的 scandal. " 安然 was a warning from history, from 的 energy business to other sectors. I describe my former employer as a canary in a coal mine demonstrating 的 dangers of excessive 杠杆作用 , of having a non-transparent accounting system 和 all those sliced 和 diced SPV ."

"Pre-crisis, 的 financial sector was guilty of formally removing 'potentially' bad assets from 的 parent company to SPV . However, in real financial terms that wasn't 的 case. When things took a turn for 的 worse, all 的 assets 和 liabilities put on to SPV came back to be reabsorbed into 的 balance sheets."

Formally 的y were separate 和 'special', Kaminski notes, but for all practical reasons 的re was no effective transfer of 风险 .

"Rewind 的 clock back 和 的re was no effective transfer of 风险 in 的 case of 安然 either when its horror story of SPV 和 creative accounting came out in all its unsavoury detail. So if lessons were learnt, where is 的 evidence? Now, let's forget scruples for a moment 和 simply take it as a basic mistake. Even so, 的re is no evidence lessons were learned from 的 安然 fiasco."

He adds that those who don't have an open mind will never learn. "This is not exclusive to 的 energy business or financial services. It's perhaps true of everything in life. Arrogance 和 greed also play a part, especially in 的 minds of those who think 的y can somehow extricate 的mselves when 的 tide turns."

As early as 2004-05, 的 莱斯大学 academic says he was debating with colleagues that a financial crisis could be on 的 horizon as 的 US property market bubbled up.

"Some people branded me as crazy, some called me pessimistic. 的y said 的 world is mature enough to manage 的 situation 和 progress in economic 和 financial sciences had created tools for effective management of market 和 credit 风险 s. Some even agreed that we'll have a train wreck of a global economy, but to my amazement remarked that 的y knew how to "get out in time."

Kaminski says while it can be true of individuals who can perhaps get out in time, it cannot be true of large corporations 和 的 entire financial system. "的y would invariably take a hit, which in some cases – as 的 financial crisis showed – was a fatal hit. Furthermore, 的 financial system itself was scarred on a global scale."

Over 的 years, 这个博客 has often heard Kaminski compare chief 风险 officers (CROs) to food tasters in medieval royal courts.

"Indeed, being a 风险 manager is a job with limited upside. You cannot slow 'acting poison' 和 的 cooks don’t like you as you always complain that 的 food tastes funny. So if 的y catch you in a dark place, 的y will rough you up!" he laughs.

“我一次又一次地表示,风险管理人员应该真正独立。在最近的专栏中, 能源风险, I gave 的 example of 的 CRO 在 雷曼兄弟, who was asked to leave 的 room when senior executives were talking business. It is both weird 和 outrageous in equal measure that a CRO would be treated in this way. I would resign on 的 spot if this happened to me as a matter of principle."

He also thinks CROs should be reporting directly to 的 board rather than 的 CEO because 的y need true independence. "Furthermore, 的 board should not have excessive or blind confidence in any C-suite executive just because 的 media has given him or her rock-star status."

A switch from 的 corporate world to academia has certainly not diminished Kaminski’坦诚的幽默感和技巧。

" 可能 be having your CEO on 的 cover of 工作周 [Cue: 安然 's 的n CEO 杰夫·斯基林] could be 的 first warning sign of trouble! 的 second signal could be a 新闪亮的塔 [见左上方-曾经是安然的’s现在由一家名为“恐龙”或传统石油公司的技能公司负责– 雪佛龙 ] 和 的 third could be your company's name on a stadium! Our local baseball team – Houston Astros – called a stadium that was 'Enron Field' 的ir home, 的n 'Enron Failed'. Thankfully, it's now shaken it off 和 is simply 分钟女仆公园 [可口可乐的投资组合中的饮料品牌 ]。”

"But jokes apart, excessive reliance or confidence in any single individual should be a red flag. I feel it's prudent to mention that I am not suggesting companies should not reward success, that's different. What I am saying is that 的 future of a company should not rely on one single individual."

Switching to 'crude' matters, Kaminski says trading remains an expensive thing for energy companies 和 is likely to get even costlier in light of higher capital requirements for registering as a swap dealer 和 added compliance costs. "So 的 industry will go through a slowdown 和 witness consolidation as we are already seeing."

On a more macro footing, he agrees that 的 黑金资产化 will continue as investors seek diversity in uncertain times. As for 的 US 页岩 bonanza versus 的 natural gas exports paradigm, should exports materialise in incremental volumes, 的 [domestic] price of natural gas will eventually have to go up stateside, he adds.

"Right now, 的 price [of US natural gas] is low because it is abundant. However, to a large extent that abundance is down to it being cross-subsidised by 的 oil industry [and natural gas liquids]. I believe in one economic law –没有什么可以永远持续下去。

"As far as 的 LNG business is concerned, it will still be a reasonably good business, but not with 的 level of profitability that most people expect, once you add 的 cost of liquefaction, transportation, etc."

的 Oilholic 和 的 ex-Enron pragmatist also agreed that 的re will be a lot of additional capacity coming onstream beyond American shores. "We could be looking 在 的 price of natural gas in 的 US going up 和 global LNG prices going down. 的re will still be a decent profit margin but it's not going to be fantastic," he concludes.

And that's your lot for 的 moment! It was an absolute pleasure speaking to Dr Kaminski! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

To follow 的 Oilholic on Twitter 点击这里 .

发邮件: [email protected]

© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2014. Photo 1:文森特·卡明斯基博士at El Paso Trading Room, 莱斯大学, Houston. Photo 2: 雪佛龙 Houston, formerly 的 安然 Towers. Photo 3: Dr Kaminski & 的 Oilholic, in 的 Woodlands, 德州 , 美国 ©Gaurav Sharma,2013年11月22日。


放置n’ calls, 俄国 ‘peaking’ & Peking’s 页岩

Oil market volatility continues unabated indicative of 的 barmy nature of 的 world we live in. On 一月 25, 的 Brent forward month futures contract spiked above US$113. If 的 day's intraday price of US$113.46 is used as a cut-off point, 的n it has risen by 4.3% since Christmas Eve. If you ask what has changed in a month? Well not much! 的 阿尔及利亚恐怖袭击, despite 的 tragic nature of events, does not fundamentally alter 的 geopolitical 风险溢价 for 2013.

In fact, many commentators think 的 风险溢价大致保持中性 和 hinged on 的 question whether or not 伊朗 flares-up. So is a US$113-plus Brent price merited? Not one jot! If you took such a price-level 在 face value, 的n yours would be a hugely optimistic view of 的 global economy, one that it does not merit on 的 basis of economic survey data.
In an interesting note, 奥莱汉森 , Head of Commodity Strategy 在 盛宝银行 , gently nudges observers in 的 direction of examining 的 put/call ratio. For those who don’t know, in layman terms 的 ratio measures mass psychology amongst market participants. It is 的 trading volume of put options divided by 的 trading volume of call options. (见上图礼貌 盛宝银行点击图片放大)
When 的 ratio is relatively high, this means 的 trading community or shall we say 的 majority in 的 trading community expect bearish trends. When 的 ratio is relatively low, 的y’重新走向多头道路。
汉森观察到: “The most popular traded strikes over 的 five trading days (to 一月 23) are evenly split between puts 和 calls. 的 most traded has been 的 六月 13 Call strike 115 (last US$ 3.13 per barrel), 四月 13 Call 120 (US$0.61), 四月 13 Put 100 (US$0.56) 和 六月 13 Put 95 (US$1.32). 的 hedging of a potential geopolitical spike has been seen through 的 buying of 六月 13 Call 130, 持续 traded 在 US$0.54/barrel.”
的 Oilholic认为应该谨慎地指出,跟踪每周市场看跌期权和看涨期权的数量是一种衡量大多数交易者情绪的方法。总体而言,市场可以在正确的情况下证明大多数交易者是错误的。所以让’看事物如何发展。同时,芝商所集团在1月24日表示,NYMEX 3月布伦特原油期货曾升至下一个目标价112.90 / 113.29美元,并突破该水平,但本月未能突破’高的“未来几天信号弱点”。
的  group also announced a record in daily trading volume for its 纽约商品交易所 Brent futures contract as trading volumes, using 一月 18 as a cut-off point, jumped to 30,250 contracts; a 38% increase over 的 previous record of 21,997 set on 八月 8, 2012.
惠誉国际评级(Fitch Ratings)表示,从宏观角度出发,俄罗斯的石油产量可能会在未来几年达到顶峰,因为新油田的收益被棕地的产量下降所抵消。评级机构在1月22日的一份声明中表示,过去十年来俄罗斯取得的产量增长主要是由于新技术的密集应用,特别是水平钻井和水力压裂大规模应用于西西伯利亚棕地。
"This allowed oil companies to tap previously unreachable reservoirs 和 dramatically reverse declining 生产 rates 在 的se fields, some of which have been producing oil for several decades. In addition, 俄国 saw successful launches of several new 生产 areas, including Rosneft's large Eastern Siberian Vankor field in 2009," Fitch notes.
However, Fitch says 的 biggest potential gains from new technology have now been mostly achieved. 的 latest 生产 figures from 的 俄国 n Ministry of Energy show that total 原油 oil 生产 in 的 country increased by 1.3% in 2012 to 518 million tons. 俄国 n refinery volumes increased by 4.5% to 266 million tons while exports dropped by 1% to 239 million tons. 俄国 n oil 生产 has increased rapidly from a low of 303 million tons in 1996.
"Greenfields are located in inhospitable 和 remote places 和 projects 的refore require large amounts of capital. We believe oil prices would need to remain above US$100 per barrel 和 的 俄国 n government would need to provide tax incentives for oil companies to invest in additional Eastern Siberian 生产 ," Fitch says.
一个显着的例外是里海架子,俄罗斯卢克石油’s second largest oil company, is progressing with its exploration 和 生产 programme. 的 ratings agency does see potential for more joint ventures between 俄国 n 和 international oil companies in exploring 的 俄国 n continental shelf. No doubt, 的 needs must paradigm, which is very visible elsewhere in 的 ‘crude’世界,也适用于俄罗斯人。
On 的 very same day as Fitch raised 的 possibility of 俄国 n 生产 达到顶峰, Peking announced a massive capital spending drive towards 页岩 exploration. 路透社报道 that 中国 intends to start its own 页岩 gale as 的 country’s Ministry of Land 和 Resources issued exploration rights for 19 页岩 prospection blocks to 16 firms. Local media suggests most of 的 exploration rights pertain to 页岩 gas exploration with 的 16 firms pledging US$2 billion towards 的 move.

On 的 subject of 页岩 和 before 的 news arrived from 中国 , IHS副主席Daniel Yergin 告诉  the 世界经济论坛  in 达沃斯 that major 非传统的 opportunities are being identified around 的 world. "Our research indicates that 的 页岩 resource base in 中国 may be larger than in 的 美国 , 和 we note prospects elsewhere," he added.
但是,两者 的 Oilholic 和 的 industry veteran 和 founder of IHS CERA agree that 的 circumstances which led to 和 promoted 的 development of 非传统的 sources in 的 美国 differ in important aspects from other parts of 的 world.

“仍处于起步阶段,我们相信还需要几年的时间,其他地区才会开始出现大量的非常规油气,” Yergin said. In fact, 的 US is benefitting in more ways than one if IHS’ new report Energy 和 的 新的全球工业格局:构造转变 可以相信。

In it, IHS forecasts that 的 "direct, indirect 和 induced effects" of 的 surge in nonconventional oil 和 gas extraction have already added 1.7 million jobs to 的 US jobs market with 3 million expected by 2020. Furthermore, 2012年,联邦和州政府的财政收入增加了620亿美元,预计到2020年将达到1,110亿美元。 (请参见上方的条形图 IHS. Click image to enlarge)
IHS还预测,2013年非欧佩克国家的石油供应量将达到每天110万桶–大于全球需求的增长– which has happened only four times since 1986. Leading this non-OPEC growth is indeed 的 surge in 非传统的 oil in 的 美国 . 的 report does warn, however, that increases in non-OPEC supply elsewhere in 的 world could be subject to what has proved to be a recurrent “失望的历史。”
那’s all for 的 moment folks! Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!
To follow 的 Oilholic on Twitter 点击这里 .
©Gaurav Sharma2013。图:Brent Crude– Put/Call ratio ©盛宝银行,照片:俄罗斯杰里泵千斤顶© 卢克 , Bar Chart: US jobs growth projection in 的 非传统的 oil & gas sector © IHS 2013.


论有限资源与中国’s urges

我们不断辩论世界’快速消耗自然资源;从化石燃料到可耕种的土地供不应求。有些人通常认为 the quest for mineral wealth would be a fight to 的 death. Others, like academic 丹比萨·莫约(Dambisa Moyo) take a more pragmatic line on resource scarcity 和 rationally analyse what is 在 stake as she has done in her latest book 获胜者:中国’争夺资源,这对我们意味着什么.

那 的 Chinese are in town for more than just a slice of 的 自然资源 cake is well documented. Yet, instead of crying ‘wolf’, Moyo sequentially dissects 和 offers highly readable conjecture on how 中国 is leading 的 global race for 自然资源 be it via 的ir national oil companies, mergers, asset acquisitions, lobbying or political 杠杆作用 on an international scale.

While cleverly watching out for 的ir interests, 的 author explains, in this book of just over 250 pages split by two parts containing 10 chapters, that 的 Chinese are neck-deep in a global resources rush but not necessarily 的 causative agents of perceived resource scarcity.

However, that 的y are 的 dominant players in a high stakes hunt for commodities from Africa to Latin America is unmistakable. For good measure 和 as to be expected of a book of this nature, 的 author has examined a variety of tangents hurled around in a resource security debate. 的 荷兰病, geopolitics, 风险溢价 in commodities prices, resource curse hypothesis have all been visited versus 的 Chinese quest by Moyo.

的 Oilholic found her arguments on 的 subject 既不危言耸听也不是民粹主义者。相反,她做了值得称赞的事情,它考察了我们如何在资源辩论,商品市场运作和我们所看到的地缘政治转变中达到这一点,而不是使主题产生轰动。作者本人认为中国可能在争夺资源方面处于领先地位,但绝不是该镇唯一的饥饿之马。

总体而言,这是一本非常体面的书,鉴于其在当今的相关性和流行性,它值得一读’s world. 的 Oilholic would be happy recommend it to commodities traders, those interested in international affairs, geopolitics, financial news 和 resource economics. Finally, those who have made a career out of future projections would find it very well worth 的ir while to absorb it from cover to cover.

To follow 的 Oilholic on Twitter 点击这里 . 

©Gaurav Sharma2013。照片:封面-获胜者通吃© 艾伦巷 / 英国企鹅集团.



In 1999, 的 merger of Exxon 和 Mobil created what could be described as an oil & gas industry behemoth 和 , using some financial metrics, perhaps also one of 的 most profitable among 的 international “supermajors”。尽管埃克森美孚是全球实体,但对于许多人来说仍然是一个谜。
Its sheer presence on 的 world stage has its admirers yet critics have labelled it as a polluter, a climate-change denier, a controversial lobbyist, a bully 和 more. For Pulitzer Prize winning author 史蒂夫·柯尔 , 的re is more to it than meets 的 eye when it comes to 埃克森美孚 和 its financial performance which is more durable than others in 的 发财 500 list.
Coll的最新工作是减去一般性推论或进行大规模扑打的线性练习 – 私人帝国: 埃克森美孚 和 American Power – is a pragmatic book about a global brand which, in 的 author’s words, became 的 "most hated"  oil company in America after 的 埃克森·瓦尔迪兹(Exxon Valdez) oil spill off 的 coast of Alaska in 1989.
该事件本身提供了 不到700页的详细叙述的起点,分为两部分– 的 End of Easy Oil的 Risk Cycle –包含28章。 Coll依靠他的新闻事业坚韧和详细的研究工作,包括400多次采访,解密的文件,法律和公司记录等,对他的这一问题进行了详细的描述。“Private Empire”并不会令人失望。
埃克森美孚 has its dogmas, fears, idiosyncrasies, pluses 和 minuses 和 的 author delves into 的se based on anecdotal as well as observed evidence. From an obsession with safety post 埃克森·瓦尔迪兹(Exxon Valdez) to 的 moving of its headquarters to Irving, 德州 , from “the merger”坚持R.O.C.E(使用资本回报率)–Coll解决了所有问题。
作者认为,与流行的猜想会让您相信的是,埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil)并没有引起人们的注意,而是与政客们一起残酷地寻找无情的企业巨头 ’华盛顿特区传奇性的游说活动巧妙而积极地发挥了作用,以发挥最大作用。尽管该公司避免了对其存在和事务的公开政治化,但它从新市场和全球商业中受益,美国军事霸权保护了整个世界。毕竟,埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil)在艰难处决时经常会在国会山(Capitol Hill)上赢得电力经纪人的青睐。
While 的 whole book is a thoroughly good read, for 的 Oilholic, reading Coll’对埃克森美孚的描述’s grapples with "resource nationalism" in developing markets (as its oil output in developed jurisdictions started declining) 和 its management (or otherwise) of operations in inhospitable countries, were 的 two most interesting passages.
From Aceh in 印度尼西亚 to 的 尼日尔三角洲 , from 的 Gulf of 几内亚 to 乍得 , 埃克森美孚 found itself in alien territory 和 conflicts it had not seen before. But it strategized, adopted, called in favours 和 more often than not emerged with a result in its favour; if not immediately, 的n over a period of time, writes Coll.
每个传奇都需要一组角色,这个角色也不例外。一个人及其作者的写照脱颖而出。那’s Lee(“ Iron Ass”)雷蒙德,埃克森美孚’他在1993年至2005年间是一位无与伦比的老板。拥有化学工程博士学位,在朋友中吹嘘Dick Cheney以及否认气候变化的历史,Raymond所有人都是一个令人敬畏的人物,’对他的描述并不令人失望。石油狂人有一个无声的批评 是它的边界闲话部分地出现,但有人认为该闲话在一个重要的叙述中将这些点连接起来。
总而言之, this blogger found 的 book to be a definitive one on 埃克森美孚 和 by default a glimpse into 的 wider ‘crude’ world, it’推销和交易。 The Oilholic would be happy to recommend it to anyone interested in 的 oil business, its history, market dynamics 和 的 geopolitical climate it is inextricably linked with.
Those interested in business, finance 和 economics would also enjoy this book as would 的 mainstream non-fiction reader in search of a riveting real world account. Finally, it would also be well worth 的 while of students of financial journalism to read 和 learn from Coll’s craft.
©Gaurav Sharma2012。照片:Front Cover– 私人帝国: 埃克森美孚 和 American Power © 艾伦巷 / 英国企鹅集团.


In 的 Realm of Crude “What Ifs”

Last time I checked 的 ICE Brent forward month futures contract was trading 在 US$110.46 per barrel up US$4.68 or 4.43% in intraday trading (点击图表放大 )。 It is my considered belief, since fundamentals do not support such a high price 在 this moment in time that 的re is 在 least US$10 worth of 不稳定溢价 factored in to 的 price.

给定数量“what if”当今电视台的分析师都在关注利比亚的局势,值得注意的是,不仅供应担忧抬高了价格,而且该国供应的原油种类也产生了影响。我认为,这是后者,这更多地反映在原油价格中,而不是供应中断。轻质原油是提炼成本效益最高的品种,尽管利比亚原油不及美国轻质原油,但相对于欧佩克同行,其质量仍然很高。

Now, if exporters such as 沙特阿拉伯 talk of making up 的 short supply, not all of 的 利比亚 n export shortfall can be compensated for with a type of 原油 的 country exports. This is what 的 speculators are factoring in, though it is worth stating 的 obvious that 利比亚 is 的 world 12th largest exporter of 原油.

此外,古老的“what if”问题也困扰着交易气氛,即“如果沙特家族倒闭,沙特阿拉伯的供应中断怎么办?” 的 question is not new 和 has been around for decades. Problem is that a lot of 的 “what ifs”最近几周,中东和北非地区的中东地区已成为现实。如果沙特家族倒台,那将是对原油市场的地缘政治影响,这是自阿拉伯石油禁运以来我们从未见过的规模。

在国际石油周的其他地方,咨询公司德勤(Deloitte)公布了其按市值计算的英国上游独立石油公司的第二个全年排名。前三名依次是塔洛(Tullow),凯恩(Cairn)和普里米尔(Premier Oil),其结果与2009年底相似。塔洛’加纳的实力帮助它保持了该行业的头把交椅。它的£110亿美元的市值是其最接近的竞争对手凯恩能源(Cairn Energy)的两倍以上,而凯恩能源的市值则是排名第三的Premier Oil的两倍以上。 (点击下表放大)

在去年同意将其在印度的权益出售给韦丹塔并专注于北极勘探之后,凯恩继续感到兴奋。然而,它在格陵兰岛沿海的钻探尚未产生任何成果‘crudely’ meaningful. Another noteworthy point is 的 entry of Rockhopper Exploration, which is prospecting for 原油 off 的 coast of 的 Falkland Islands, into 的 top ten 在 9th (up from 26th 在 end-2009).

“We have seen a great deal of volatility in 的 ranking showing 的 transformational growth achievable through exploration success. Overall, 2010 was a year of recovery for 的 UK upstream independent oil 和 gas sector, with rising oil prices 和 greater access to capital improving investor sentiment in 的 sector,”德勤能源交易服务的合作伙伴伊恩•斯珀林-泰勒(Ian Sperling-Tyler)说。

“The improved environment was reflected in a 28% increase in 的 market capitalisation of 的 25 biggest companies in 的 sector from £25.3 billion to £32.2 billion. In contrast, 的 FTSE 100 posted a 9% gain,” he adds.

从英国独立的暴发户转变为英国大学生’与印度的庞然大物打交道。在BP /信实工业有限公司(RIL)宣布成立合资公司之后,评级机构穆迪(Moody's)将RIL的Baa2本币发行人的评级展望从稳定改为正面。 里尔 的外币发行人和债务评级在Baa2保持不变,前景稳定,因为这些受到印度主权的Baa2外汇上限的限制。

的 rating action follows 的 company's recent announcement of a transformational partnership agreement with 血压 that will see 的 British major take a 30% stake in 里尔 's 23 Indian oil 和 gas blocks, including 的 substantial KG D6 gas field, for an initial consideration of US$ 7.2 billion plus further performance related payments of up to US$ 1.8 billion.

Philipp Lotter, a Senior Vice President 在 穆迪 's in Singapore believes 的 partnership agreement has generally positive credit implications for 里尔 , both operationally 和 financially. "的 decision to bring on board 血压 in support of India's domestic gas market development will benefit 里尔 from 血压 's deep-water drilling expertise, as well as allow it to share 风险 s 和 costs of future exploration 和 infrastructure projects, thus significantly de-risking its upstream exposure,"他补充说。

However, according to 穆迪 's it is worth noting that 的 outlook could revert back to stable, if 里尔 undertakes transformational debt-funded acquisitions, or allocates material liquidity to finance growth that entails higher business 风险 . A deterioration of retained cash flow to debt below 30% is also likely to reverse any upward rating pressure.

© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2011. Graphics 1: Brent 原油 oil chart ©Digital Look / BBC,2011年2月23日,图片2:英国领先的独立石油公司© Deloitte LLP



Earlier on Monday, oil giant 贝壳 announced its intentions to sell most of its African downstream businesses to Swiss group Vitol 和 Helios Investment Partners for US$1 billion adding that it will create two new joint ventures under 的 proposed deal.

的 first of 的se JVs will own 和 operate 贝壳 's existing oil products, distribution 和 retailing businesses in 14 African countries, most notably in 埃及 , 摩洛哥 , Kenya, Uganda 和 Madagascar.

的 second JV will own 和 operate 贝壳 's existing lubricants blending plants in seven countries. 的 move is in line with 贝壳 ’剥离其非核心资产的政策。它在2010年出售了70亿美元的非核心资产。在壳牌撤资非洲的同时,BP通过战略石油在印度投资&与信实工业的天然气合作伙伴关系。

Both companies will form a 50:50 joint venture for sourcing 和 marketing hydrocarbons in India. 的 agreement will give 血压 a 30% stake in 23 oil 和 gas blocks owned by 依赖 including 19 off 的 east coast of India. Market feedback suggests 的 deal is heavily weighted towards gas rather than 的 原油 stuff.

In return for 的 stake, 血压 will invest US$7.2 billion in 的 venture 和 a further US$1.8 billion in future performance-related investments. 的 combined capital costs are slated to be in 的 region of US$20 billon with local media already branding it as 的 largest 外商直接投资 deal in India by a foreign company.

Switching focus to 的 Middle Eastern unrest, what is happening from 摩洛哥 to 巴林 is having a massive bearing on 的 不稳定溢价 factoring in to 的 price of 原油. However, 的 impact of each country’s regional upheaval on 的 原油 price is not uniform. I summarise it as follows based on 的 perceived oil 赋 (or 的 lack of it) for each country:

• Algeria (marginal)
• 埃及 (marginal)
• 伊朗 (difficult to gauge 在 的 moment)
• 巴林 (marginal)
• 利比亚 (substantial)

Of 的se, it is obvious to 的 wider market that what is happening in 利比亚 is one of concern. More so as 的 unrest has become unruly 和 的 future may well be uncertain as 的 欧佩克 member country accounts for around 2% of 的 daily global 原油 生产 .

与该地区有历史渊源的意大利和法国石油公司属于最脆弱的国家,尽管如此,英国石油公司在那里也拥有大量资产。奥地利’s OMV 和 Norway’Statoil是利比亚其他著名的运营商。更大的担忧可能是,如果伊朗以类似不守规矩的方式爆发。鉴于对伊朗的国际制裁,石油巨头在伊朗的参与不如在利比亚。但是,伊朗问题’原油end赋及其对石油市场的影响是完全不同的问题。

Finally, 的 ICE Brent 原油 forward month futures contract stood 在 US$108.25 per barrel, up 5.6% in intraday trading 持续 time checked. I feel 的re is 在 least US$10 worth of 不稳定溢价 in 的re, although one city source reckons it could be as high as US$15. 的 "What if" side analysts (as I call 的m) are having a field day - having already moved 的ir focus from 伊朗 to 沙特阿拉伯.

©Gaurav Sharma2011。照片:Vintage 贝壳 汽油泵,吉拉德利广场,旧金山,加利福尼亚州,美国©Gaurav Sharma,2010年3月


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