十年的“粗俗”博客，非常感谢！

Its a day to say thanks 和 feel a tad nostalgic, as 的 油腻的 woke up this Christmas eve morning to 的 realization that today marks 10 years of this 油and gas market blog's appearance on cyberspace!

男孩做时间飞！当您的博客直播该博客并于2009年12月24日发布他的第一篇文章时，巴拉克·奥巴马（Barack Obama）进入白宫的时间不到一年。戈登·布朗仍在唐宁街上。全球经济正从金融危机中恢复过来；尚未感受到美国页岩革命的影响；欧佩克在安哥拉的罗安达举行了最近的部长会议，而不是在奥地利的维也纳举行了秘书处会议。布伦特原油和西德州中质油（WTI）期货分别收于每桶76.31美元和78.05美元，对后者有利。与欧洲早盘在亚洲的价格相比，布伦特原油下跌了10年，每桶下跌了9.84美元（-12.9％），WTI下跌了17.5美元（-22.42％）。  

Back 的n, all this blog had was a handful of readers comprising of mutual acquaintances in 的 trading community who had been providing tips 和 invaluable feedback since 2007, when yours truly was working on concepts, 和 a trail site/domain. The subsequent blogging journey began on Christmas eve of 2009 when 的 油腻的 registered 的 www.oilholicssynonymous.com domain, 和 it 已经 quite a ride, 和 more, ever since. 

The blog underwent a complete template overhaul in 2011 as 的 readership started gaining traction. Well past its millionth pageview, it currently averages 12,000 reads a month. 

能源行业的发展和事件（例如IPWeek，CERAWeek，OPEC和ADIPEC）经常带来远高于平均水平的读者积分，该博客作者经常在这里发表演讲，导致每月的综合浏览量超过每月100,000次阅读。 

As in previous years, bulk of 的 readers who browse 和 read this blog in 2019 have come from 的 我们 , 英国, Norway, Germany 和 China in that order, with 美国n 和 British readers leading 的 pack by some distance. 

Many have logged in from some 127 countries week in, week out. So a massive thank you to all of you because without your readership, feedback 和 support this blog wouldn't be here. Alongside regular readers who find this blog via established routes, analytics also reveal 的 impact of 谷歌, where many of you find your way to 的 油腻的 alongside 领英, 推特 和 福布斯.

What this blog 已经 about over 的 last 10 years is what it will be about in 的 future, carrying 的 油腻的's analysis, thoughts, rants, musings 和 social media flags, about past events, developments 和 emerging scenarios in 的 sector, 和 的 comments of fellow market experts one is able to interact with. 

It'll also continue to complement 的 油腻的's analysis 和 media career, speaking circuit engagements, serve as a published clippings portfolio hub, broadcast commentary, work undertaken over 的 last 20 years (and counting), some favourite photographs 和 a selection of 书评s.

As 的 years go by, here's hoping this blog is (and will be) as much fun for those reading it as it is for 的 one writing it. So keep reading, keep it 'crude' 和 once again thank you for all your support.

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© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2019. Photo: Screenshot of 油腻的s Synonymous Report's homepage in 2010 © 高拉夫·夏尔马.

夸张的和那些“粗暴”的百分比

The 油腻的 finds himself gazing 在 的 bright lights of 拉斯维加斯, Nevada once again after a gap of five years. This gambling hub's uniqueness is often 的 ostentatious 和 loud way it goes about itself. The 油market had its own fair share of loud 和 exaggerated assumptions last week.

Sample 的se headlines – “布伦特原油飙升至2015年高点”, “页岩油产量下降，亚博备用市场回升 ”, “布伦特原油上涨10％。” There is some truth in all of this, 和 的 last one is technically correct. 布伦特上​​周五确实关闭 up 10.03% relative to 的 Friday before, while WTI rose 8.41% 和 欧佩克's basket of 原油 oil(s) rose 10.02% over a comparable period (见图打击右手角）。

Bullish yes, 公牛奔跑 nope! This blogger believes market fundamentals haven't materially altered. There is still too much 原油 油out 的re. So what's afoot? Well, given that one is in a leading gambling hub of world, once 'the leading one' by revenue until Macau recently pinched 的 accolade, it is best to take a cue from punters of a different variety – some of 的 lot who've been betting on 油markets for decades out of 的 comfort of Nevada, but never ever turn up 在 的 end of a pipeline to collect black gold.

他们的判决– those betting long are clutching 在 的 straws after enduring a torrid first quarter of 的 year. Now who can blame 的 wider trading community for booking a bit of profit? But what's mildly amusing here is how percentages are interpreted by 的 media 'Las Vegas size', 和 fanned by traders "clutching 在 的 straws", to quote one of 的ir lot, 'Las Vegas style'.

For 的 moment, 的 油腻的 is sticking one's 2015年预测 –即年中均衡布伦特原油价格为每桶60美元，随后是 逐渐向上攀升至75美元 towards 的 end of 的 year, if we are lucky 和 media speculation about 的 Chinese government buying more 原油 are borne out in reality. The 油腻的 remains sceptical about 的 latter.

Since one put 的 forecast out 的re, many, especially over 的 last few weeks wrote back wondering if this blogger was being too pessimistic. Far from it, some of 的 oldest hands in 的 business known to 的 油腻的, including our trader friends here in 拉斯维加斯, actually opine that yours truly is being too optimistic!

原因很简单– making assumptions about 的 decline of 美国页岩, as some are doing 在 的 moment is daft! Make no mistake, Bakken is suffering, but Eagle Ford, according to very reliable anecdotal evidence 和 data from 钻井信息, is doing pretty well for itself. Furthermore, in 的 油腻的’s 10+ years of monitoring 的 industry, 美国页岩 explorers have always proved doubters wrong.

超越美国海岸– both Saudi 和 Russian production is still marginally above 10 million bpd. Finally, who, alas who, will tell 的 exaggerators to tackle 的 real elephant in 的 room – 的 actual demand for black gold. While 的 latter has shifted somewhat based on evidence of improved take-up by refiners as 的 so called “US driving season” approaches, emerging markets are not importing as much as 的y did if a quarter-on-quarter annualised conversion is carried out.

Quite frankly, all eyes are now on 欧佩克. Its own production is 在 a record high; it believes that 我们 油production won’t be 在 的 level it is 在 now by 十二月 和 its own clout as a swing producer is diminished (though not as severely as some would claim).

Meanwhile, Russian president Vladimir Putin declared 的 country's financial crisis to be over last week, but it seems Russia’s GDP fell between 2% to 4% over 的 first quarter of this year. The news caused further rumbles for 的 卢布 which fell by around 4.5% last time one checked. The 油腻的 still reckons; Russian production cannot be sustained 在 its current levels.

就是说，在适当的时候给予信用– Russians have defied broader expectations of a decline so far. To a certain extent, 和 in a very different setting, 加拿大 too has defied expectations, going by separate research put out by BMO Capital 和 的 Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. Fewer rigs in 加拿大 have – again inserting 的 words 'so far' –并没有导致加拿大产量的急剧下降。

Finally, here's an interesting report from 的 周末金融时报 (subscription required). It seems 血压's activist shareholders have won a victory by persuading most shareholders to back a resolution obliging 的 油major to set out 的 potential cost of climate change to its business. As if that's going to make a difference - somebody tell 的se activists 的 油majors no longer control bulk of 的 world's 油– most of which is in 的 hands of National Oil Companies unwilling to give an inch!

That's all for 的 moment folks from 拉斯维加斯 folks, as 的 油腻的 turns his 在tention to 的 technology side of 的 energy business, with some fascinating insight coming up over 的 next few days from here. In 的 interim, keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

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© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2015. Photo: Paris Casino on 的 拉斯维加斯 Strip, Nevada, 我们 A ©Gaurav Sharma，2015年4月。图：亚博备用基准价格-最新的周五收盘价©Gaurav Sharma，2015年4月17日。

An ‘Atlas’接触运动的电子学习

The 油腻的 has had 的 pleasure of visiting quite a few E&P facilities over 的 years from offshore rigs to onshore gas fields. Going back roughly a decade, it wasn't uncommon [and still isn't] to see roughnecks in hard hats being given instructions ranging from operational to 健康和安全 by a superior.

The mode of communication usually involved barking verbal instructions in highly colourful language with bulky printed 训练 manuals on-hand containing everything from evacuation routes to rules 和 规s. All of this has changed 和 rather dramatically, if one may add. What started as a slow, but sure, transformation 在 的 turn of 的 millennium came in 的 form of former roughnecks 和 rig engineers imparting 的ir wisdom for 的 benefit of budding on-site professionals via 训练 courses using 的 electronic medium.

 

By 2006-07, 电子学习 provided by specialist providers had gained considerable traction in what is largely a contact sport. Among 的 stalwarts, in this relatively young but highly competitive market, is a part private equity-owned, part employee-owned educator headquartered in 香港仔, Scotland called 阿特拉斯.

 

The firm came on 的 油腻的's radar back in 2011 在 的 第20届世界亚博备用大会在多哈.  A further look into 阿特拉斯, 在 的 suggestion of a banking sector contact, revealed a client portfolio of some of 的 biggest names in 的 business for a company which is less than 20 years old. IOCs aside, strikingly enough, this blogger found that a number of NOC had also availed 阿特拉斯' service to give 的ir workforces – as 的 educator's motto states – 的 "knowledge to perform."

 

For 的 sake of a 原油 analogy, 的 油腻的 quipped to 凯文·肖特, Director of Sales 在 阿特拉斯, if 的y'd in fact become 的 罗塞塔石碑 of 的 油&天然气业务。 “我不’尽管我们的在线学习课程和行业解决方案确实是多语言的，但我们认为这很简单。”他笑着说。

 

简而言之，它更多地是关于创建，营销和销售旨在“提高效率，同时将运营和法律风险降至最低”的虚拟学习解决方案。范围从为空运危险货物的员工提供的电子培训课程到用于撤离E的简单培训解决方案&P facility.

 

"There are industry standard courses available from our library; but more often than not, you'll find clients ordering bespoke solutions or an altered version of an existing 训练 solution to suit 的ir specific needs," Short explains.

 

There is no mystique about what 阿特拉斯 provides 和 的 company continues to record double-digit growth on an annualised basis, much to 的 delight of its PE owners [HG资本]一个假设。点对点的联系和评论无疑对实现这一目标有巨大帮助– both in terms of retaining clients 和 bagging new ones. Over 的 years, 阿特拉斯 has expanded to Dubai, Kuala Lumpur 和 Houston.

 

Understandably, 的 firm keeps abreast of new emerging techniques in 的 E&P部门，非常规勘探活动以及相关的健康和安全问题，为客户提供电子学习选项。

 

However, 的 油腻的 put one caveat to Short – pros from 香港仔 who have gained expertise for better parts of four decades, especially on 的 健康和安全 front in wake of 的 吹笛者阿尔法悲剧（1988）, are also on 的 educating circuit from Dubai to 卡尔加里 和 in great demand. So is 阿特拉斯 toughing it out with 的m too?

 

"In a sense, perhaps yes. But in terms of 的 broader picture no! That's because we also work with some of 的se professionals a lot of 的 time 和 hire 的m as what we call 'Subject Matter Experts' to work on fresh concepts for courses and bespoke solutions for clients. What's good for 的m is good for 阿特拉斯 和 by default good for 的 commissioning client."

 

When it comes to fishing 的se guys out – networking, events, headhunting those with industry reputation 和 project-based demand all play a part. Such expertise has helped 的 company put together its patented 阿特拉斯 Knowledge Centre – a 3,000 page grab of all of 的 company's core content. Akin to a virtual oil &气体知识百科全书，可供订户使用，以作为“复习”或学习者的即时帮助指南。

 

但是如何转换新的  clients around 的 电子学习 viewpoint? Short says competency is key here. "We can help companies by ensuring that 的ir recruits not only just sit 的 course but based on 的 information that's been given to 的m, 的y become competent to handle 的 tasks 在 hand. It is not just about providing reading 和 reference material but rather ensuring that the candidate is learning."

 

阿特拉斯 also has an advisory board to help it test run pilot courses 和 provide constant feedback. Last time 的 油腻的 checked, 的re were around 53 companies on board for such an exercise. Finally, 的 company is also rather careful in being shall we say 'electronic platform neutral'.

 

"If a client wants an 电子学习 solution to work on a BlackBerry we wouldn't urge 的m to adopt an Android OS system, or Apple OS. Ultimately, that's 的ir call. We have a young team here who will tailor a course to 的 clients' IT requirements 和 subsequently licence it to 的m, rather than it being 的 other way around." A wise 行确实！那’s all for 的 moment folks! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

注意：2013年11月1日-阅读此博客对Atlas CFO Graeme Park的CFO世界采访 点击这里.

 

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©Gaurav Sharma2013。照片：阿特拉斯总部，能源公园，阿伯丁，苏格兰©Gaurav Sharma，2013年10月。

艾伯塔省第一个商业油田的故事

一个古朴的小镇叫做 特纳谷 in Alberta, 加拿大 may not mean much to 的 current crop of 油and gas industry observers. However, it has a special place in British history as well as that of 的 industry itself. Back in 1914, 的 town acquired 的 status of Western 加拿大's 油hub 和 had 的 country's first commercial oilfield which, for a while, was 的 largest 油and gas production base in 的 entire 大英帝国 as it stood 的n.

 

地狱’s Half Acre 大卫·芬奇（David Finch） 经过精心研究 and entertaining tale of 的 townsfolk of 特纳谷, 和 those who came from further afield to make it all happen back in 的 day. The author, who 已经 researching 的 social history of Western 加拿大’s 油and gas industry since 的 1980s 和 has no fewer than 15 books about 的 region to his name, recounts where it all began in earnest for 的 province.

 

钻机，加工厂和管道都在那里， 散布一切的工人和工人的轶事也是如此，他们实现了一切，并活着讲述自己的故事。为了进行生动活泼的叙述，芬奇（Finch）整理了档案资料，并进行了数十次采访，表现非常出色。但是这本实用的书只有200多页，不仅讲述了 商业成功的故事，但也包括特纳山谷在（默认情况下）加拿大对黑金的历史性追求中付出了什么代价；在两次世界大战之间夹着一种努力，这是命运的决定。

 

地狱's Half Acre is a very real place in a coulee just outside of 特纳谷, writes Finch. For two decades, companies piped excess natural gas to 的 lip of this gorge 和 burned it – in order to produce valuable gasoline 的y had to also produce 的 natural gas for which 的re were limited markets 在 的 time. In fact, 的 glowing sky could be seen as far south west as 卡尔加里, 的 author tells us.

 

加拿大's national treasure also became a military target for while. At its height, 和 before peaking in 1942, 的 特纳谷 provided 10 million barrels per day towards 的 Allied War Effort. As you would expect, what was 的n (and still is) a cyclical industry saw its own booms 和 busts. The companies 和 的ir cast of characters from 特纳谷 have also been delved into, 和 in some detail, by Finch.

 

The 油腻的 first came across this book on a 参观 卡尔加里 和机会 visit to 德米尔书店 在 的 recommendation of a local legal expert. For that, this blogger is truly grateful to all parties concerned, 和 above all to 的 author for enriching one's knowledge about this fascinating place. Hence, this review was long overdue!

 

Today 特纳谷, a harbinger of 的 success of 加拿大's 油and gas industry, is known for tourism, leisure 和 for being 的 hometown of 劳伦·哈珀（Laureen Harper）, 的 frank 和 vivacious wife of 总理史蒂芬·哈珀。所以芬奇的彩色书 could serve as a timely reminder of 的 importance of a bygone era as 特纳谷 begins the countdown to its centennial celebrations of 的 1914 discovery of oil.

 

The 油腻的 is happy to recommend this book to all those interested in 的 history of 的 油and gas business, origins of 的 Canadian energy industry, Alberta's place in 的 global geopolitical 油and gas equation 和 last, but not 的 least, anyone seeking a riveting book about 的 大阿尔伯塔省油斑.

 

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©Gaurav Sharma2013。照片：封面– 地狱’s Half Acre © 文化遗产出版社

页岩& 的 163rd 欧佩克 ministers’ summit

The 油腻的 has exchanged 的 blustery wind 和 rain in London for 的 blustery wind 和 rain in Vienna ahead of 163rd 欧佩克 meeting of ministers here on 可能 31, which half 的 world’的媒体和能源分析社区已经将其称为‘non-event’. The other half are about to! Industry commentators here 和 beyond think 的 12 member group is going to hold its current production quota 在 just above 30 million barrels per day (bpd).

 

Even before yours truly boarded 的 flight from London Heathrow, a Rotterdam based contact in 的 现货交易 world suggested one needn’t have bothered with 的 market having already factored-in an “as you were” stance by 欧佩克. This is borne out in further anecdotal evidence; 的 futures market on leading benchmarks has been bearish in 的 past 48 hours (not solely down to 欧佩克).

 

Accompanying overtones describing 的 meeting as a 非事件 is 的 sentiment that 欧佩克 is being haunted by North 美国’s shale revolution. As if with perfect timing, 的 我们 EIA announced on Thursday that 的 country's 原油-oil supplies rose 3 million barrels for 的 week ended 可能 24, to 397.6 million barrels; 的 highest level on record since it began collecting data in 1978.

 

上个星期， 的 International Energy Agency (IEA) added its take on North 美国n production scenarios by suggesting that demand for 欧佩克's 油is expected to plummet as production from 的 我们 (and 加拿大) increases by a fifth to 11.9 million bpd by 2018, compared with this year.

 

Additionally, Iraqi production is returning to health. So to put things into context, by 2020 的 IEA expects Iraq's 油output to more than double to 6.1 million bpd 和 were this to happen, 欧佩克’s unofficial production could rise well above 36 million bpd. As a knee-jerk reaction, 的 cartel – according to 的 agency – would have to withhold up to 2.3 million bpd from 的 market by 2015 (with its spare capacity rising well above 7 million bpd).

 

Given all of this, you might be excused for thinking 的 global 原油 market was facing a supply glut 和 everything was gloomy from 欧佩克’s standpoint. Yet, 的 price of 油– Brent or 欧佩克’自己的一篮子原油–仍高于每桶100美元。那’正是OPEC中大多数人希望达到的目标。

 

Arriving a day (or two) ahead of 的 meeting, 7 out of 12 欧佩克 ministers have told various media outlets that a 我们 $100 price was acceptable, where it needs to be 和 “necessary” for investment.  These include senior government officials from Angola, Ecuador, Iraq, Kuwait, 沙特阿拉伯, 阿联酋 和 Venezuela. A 我们 $100 floor price is a uniting 的me it seems 和 most have sounded intent on holding 的 current official production quota!

 

推测是只要维持地板，卡特尔 ’将减少产量。实际上，欧佩克的主力军和沙特阿拉伯’自5月28日以来一直在维也纳的亚博备用部长纳利（Ali al-Naimi）说，现有条件 代表着面对经济逆风的市场的最佳环境，并且“demand is great.”尽管文士，博客作者，电讯员和分析师集体做出了最大的努力，但伊朗和委内瑞拉都一直在努力削减价格以提振价格，但在过去的24小时中他们都没有发表太多意见。

 

In contrast, 阿卜杜勒·卡里姆·路易比, 油minister for Iraq, 欧佩克’第二大生产商说，“There is balance between demand 和 supply, 和 this is reflected on prices, 的y are stable. We don’t want any shock to 的 market, 的 stability of prices is important for 的 global economy.”

 

The 油腻的 thinks 的 cartel will maintain status quo until 的 floor dips to 我们 $80 per barrel, if it does. However, 的 unity will disappear 的 moment 的 油price dips below 我们 $99 with Venezuela 和 Iran being among 的 first to start clamouring for another production quota cut.

 

This brings us back to 的 hullabaloo about North 美国n shale (and unconventional E&P) versus 欧佩克! The right wing commentators 和 的 我们 media plus politicians of all stripes –有些人会轻易忘记加拿大’s part in 的 North 美国n energy spectrum – make it sound as if 欧佩克, which still accounts for just over 40% of 的 world’s 原油 油market, would suddenly become irrelevant overnight.

 

IEA， as 的 油腻的 noted a few weeks ago, described it as nothing short of a paradigm shift in 的 context of 的 油market, although in not 的se exact words. Then 的re is 的 dilemma of 欧佩克 ministers – who are damned if 的y do 和 damned if 的y don’t. If an 欧佩克 minister acknowledges 的 impact of North 美国n shale, he is described in 的 media as one who is resigned to 的 cartel’s decline. Conversely, if an 欧佩克 minister dismisses it, 的 rebuttal is that he’之所以这样做，是因为他’s scared!

 

他说，这是今天下午的一个例子，当时伊拉克部长阿尔·路易比被要求发表评论，“The 美国页岩 油production increase – although it has some impact, it's not a significant impact on 油production or exports, 和 as you all might notice 欧佩克 countries are all producing more 油than 的 agreed quota ceiling.”

现在，您可以自己进行有关如何在美国国内报道报价的研究，而不是像Oilholic那样做？它将证明前一段中表达的观点。您的确不是在轻视页岩气革命的国度–但是，如何在中期以上维持目前的增产水平仍是常识。因此，值得对此感到兴奋但又不要太兴奋！此外，在这场辩论中需要一点实用主义– one which the Oilholic saw in a brilliant article in 的 FT by Ajay Makan.

 

In 的 column, Makan notes how within 欧佩克 的re is divide between 的 relatively comfortable Gulf producers (for e.g. 沙特阿拉伯) 和 的 rest (most notably Iran, Venezuela 和 African members). The Saudis have welcomed 的 impact of shale as 的y can afford 的 price falling below US$100 level but some of 的ir peers in 欧佩克 can’t. For some more than 的 others, “估算是不可避免的，尤其是在需求增长放缓的情况下，” writes Makan.

 

Then again, beyond supply scenarios, it is worth asking whose shale bonanza is it anyway? First 和 foremost it is, 和 as 的 油腻的 was discussing with 菲尔·弗林 of Price Futures a couple of months ago, price positive for 美国n consumers, followed by 液化天然气 importing Asian jurisdictions. While Indian 和 Chinese policymakers are hardly jumping for joy 和 will for 的 foreseeable future continue to rely on 欧佩克 members (and Russia) for majority of 的ir 原油 cravings, some in 的 我们 are already fretting about what 我们 exports would mean for domestic prices!

 

一群– 美国’s Energy Advantage – backed by several prominent 我们 industrial brands including Alcoa, Huntsman chemicals 和 Dow Chemical, has claimed that "exporting proceeds of shale (to be read 液化天然气) carries with it 的 potential threat of damaging jobs 和 investment in 的 我们 manufacturing sector as rising exports will drive up 的 price of gas to 的 detriment of domestic industries."

 

布恩·皮肯斯，在光彩夺目的riposte中， asked can 的 我们 do what it 已经 criticising 欧佩克 for since 的 cartel's inception 和 限制出口? The inimitable industry veteran has a point! That's all for 的 moment from Vienna folks! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

 

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