油腻的’的照片在第二十一届WPC主办城市点击

油腻的绝不是摄影记者，而是类似于 上届多哈大会，假装在莫斯科假装配备一台全自动Olympus FE-4020数码相机并没有什么坏处！

The 21st 世界石油大会 also marked this blogger's return to 俄国 和 its wonderful capital city after a gap of 10 years.

大型番红花博览会国际中心（左上方) happens to be the 俄语 venue for 大会于6月15日至6月19日举行，在 克里姆林宫。希望您喜欢场地的虚拟景观以及 莫斯科，就像石油狂人在这里享受他们的生活一样。 （点击图片放大)

21WPC展厅的人群

石油巨头在21WPC展览会上大放异彩

壳牌的FLNG模型

番红花博览中心内的豪华车就在家里

雷普索尔 本田在21WPC展厅展出   

借助埃克森美孚公司的虚拟赛车体验

作者丹尼尔·耶金（左）& BP Boss Bob Dudley

突出萨哈林地区的潜力

俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司的庞然大物站在21WPC

俄语 Hammer &镰刀在莫斯科地铁站

莫斯科地铁站的宏伟内部

在红场附近的高速公路高峰

圣罗勒大教堂, 莫斯科

© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2014. Photos from the 21st 世界石油大会, 俄罗斯莫斯科©Gaurav Sharma，2014年6月。

伊拉克i situation likely to unleash 原油 bull runs

就像欧佩克会议在维也纳分散开来一样，伊拉克局势恶化的速度令市场感到惊讶。甚至不能怪13号星期五；恶化是在几天前开始的。

There was not an 伊拉克i official commentator in sight when the trickle of news turned into a flood announcing the rapid advance of Sunni militants (or the Islamic State in 伊拉克 和 the Levant, an al-Qaeda breakaway) across vast swathes of the country to within touching distance of Baghdad.

市场目前保持相当平静。但是，两者 布伦特 spot 和 futures prices did spike above US$113 per barrel 在 one point or another over the last 72 hours. We're already 在 the highest levels this far into 2014. The 油腻的 has always been critical when paper traders jump to 在 tach instant risk premium to the 原油 price 在 the slightest ripple say in Nigeria or Libya. However, this alas is something else 和 it matters.

首先，伊拉克的生产恢复缓慢而痛苦。外来投资的细流已经开始，库尔德人控制的地区却没有了。’唯一看到复兴的人。现在受到威胁。其次，明显恶化的局势可能使伊朗陷入混乱，并且已经有一些迹象。第三，它鼓舞了库尔德安全部队不加掩饰地接管基尔库克。这可能会削弱该国该地区的种族平静。

第四，尽管有麻烦，伊拉克仍然是欧佩克的重要成员。最后，如果你看 伊拉克油田的地图, the areas now held by the insurgents would trouble most geopolitical commentators as they cover quite a few hydrocarbon prospection zones. Add it all together 和 what's happening in 伊拉克, should it continue to deteriorate, has the potential of adding 在 least $10 per barrel to the current price levels, 和 that’只是一个保守的估计。

如果伊拉克沿着种族界限分裂，所有的预测都将落在窗外，而您可能将溢价提高近一倍，达到20美元，而且牛市难以预测。众所周知，紧张情绪很高，巴格达将以这种戏剧性的方式失去控制权，这应该引起最多的恐惧。许多分析师都存在一个令人烦恼的问题’ minds –这是伊拉克统一的终结吗？ 油腻的担心它可能会成为现实。 

除了令人沮丧的传奇之外，评级机构还发布了几封说明。穆迪表示全球独立电子的前景&P板块仍然保持乐观。预计未来12到18个月将继续增长，没有放缓的“明显催化剂”。

Analyst 斯图尔特·米勒 reckons unless the price of 原油 drops below $80 per barrel, investment is unlikely to fall materially for oil 和 liquids-oriented companies such as Marathon Oil, Whiting Petroleum 和 Kodiak Oil & Gas.

"The positive outlook reflects our view that industry EBITDA will grow in the mid- to high-single digits year over the next one to two years. Stable oil 和 natural gas prices will enable E&P companies to continue to invest with confidence, driving production 和 cash flow higher," Miller added.

但是，缺乏收集，加工和运输基础设施将继续困扰该行业，尽管程度要比过去几年要小。穆迪表示，完成基础设施的改善将使Bakken页岩的美国大陆资源公司和Oasis石油公司以及Marcellus页岩的Range资源公司和Antero资源公司的生产增长率得到控制。

Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings said 压裂 could help the European Union cut its reliance on 俄语 Gas. Germany's reported plan to lift a ban on 压裂 highlights one of several ways that European countries could reduce their reliance on 俄语 gas, it says.

Out of the major European oil 和 gas companies, Fitch reckons 总 could have a head start over rivals if European shale gas production ramps up, because of the experience it has gained from investment in UK shale.

The group became the first Western oil major to invest in UK shale after agreeing to take a 40% stake in two licenses earlier this year. 总 would also be well positioned if France followed Germany 和 decided to ease restrictions on shale gas production, as its home market is thought to have some of the largest shale gas reserves in Europe.

惠誉国际评级（Fitch Ratings）高级总监Jeffrey Woodruff说，“If European countries want to cut reliance on 俄语 gas, other potential routes include greater use of LNG. BG will be one of the first European companies to export LNG from the US, due to its participation in three of the six projects that have been approved by the US Department of Energy to export LNG.”

All of this is well 和 good, but as the 油腻的 noted in a 福布斯 post earlier this month, Europeans need to be both patient 和 pragmatic. The US shale bonanza took 30 years to materialise meaningfully, Europe's is likely to take longer. Speaking of shale, 这是为什么美国页岩不会伤害欧佩克的原因 all that much, as legislative impediments prevent the US from exporting 原油 oil 和 by default do not give it the feel of a global bonanza. That's all from Vienna folks. Next stop 莫斯科, for the 21st 世界石油大会. Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

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©Gaurav Sharma2014。照片：库尔德斯坦的勘探地点© Genel Energy

经过艰苦研究的书‘crude’ 俄国

在查找有关俄罗斯石油和天然气行业的书面材料时，您（常常）会遇到陈词滥调或夸大其词。在苏联解体和寡头崛起之后，有些人会讨论混乱。“Russian”腐败和贪婪的事件–但无法解决导致它的根本原因。其他人会沉迷于一场非常熟悉的俄罗斯打击运动而没有具体的表述。 在中等分析的喧嚣中，学者塔恩·古斯塔夫森（Thane Gustafson）’s splendid work – 命运之轮: The Battle for Oil 和 Power in 俄国 –不仅会破坏模具，还会将其粉碎成碎片。这本重磅，艰苦研究的书共700页，分13章，在审查时确实符合审查的艺术 this complex oil 和 gas exporting jurisdiction; a rival of 沙特阿拉伯 for the position of the world’s largest producer 和 exporter of oil.

 

这与权力，金钱，政治有关，但翻页，您将意识到古斯塔夫森巧妙地指出，这是一场俄罗斯之战’s ‘crude’灵魂。为了证实他的论点，本书充满了评论员，地图，图表和表格的观点以及100多页的脚注。叙事从讨论历史事实无缝切换到俄罗斯的选择’政治阶级和国家’当今时代的石油行业。

 

The complex relationship between state 和 industry, from the Yeltsin era to 普京’s rise is well documented 和 in some detail along with an analysis of what it means 和 where it could lead. In a book that the 油腻的 perceives as the complete package on the subject, it is hard to pick favourite passages –但是其中两章特别突出。

 

Early on in the narrative, Gustafson charts the birth of 俄语 oil majors 卢克, Surgutneftegaz 和 尤科斯 (and the latter’也要肢解）。在书的最后，作者考察了俄罗斯’s (current) accidental oil champion 俄罗斯石油公司. Both passages not only sum up the fortunes of 俄语 companies 和 how they have evolved (or in 尤科斯’案面临公司的灭绝），但也总结了克里姆林宫内部的普遍态度。

 

什么’s more, as 原油 oil becomes harder 和 more expensive to extract 和 俄语 production dwindles, Gustafson warns that the country’s current level of dependence on revenue from oil is unsustainable 和 that it simply must diversify.

 

Overall, the 油腻的 is inclined to feel that this book is one of the most authoritative work on 俄国 和 its oil industry, a well balanced critique with substantiated arguments 和 one which someone interested in geopolitics would appreciate as much as an 能源经济学的狂热者。

 

该博客很高兴推荐 命运之轮 对俄罗斯，石油和天然气业务，地缘政治，经济学，时事感兴趣的读者，最后但并非最不重要的读者–那些寻求他们感兴趣的主题的非小说类书籍的人’来过至于寻求故事的人，因为它’在俄罗斯，古斯塔夫森（Gustafson）的故事不多，可以叙述一切，但虚构的故事却并非如此。’t。毫无疑问，它们是迷人而辉煌的作品！

 

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发邮件： [email protected]

©Gaurav Sharma2013。照片：封面- Wheel of Fortune: The Battle for Oil 和 Power in 俄国 © Belknap Press of 哈佛大学出版社.

Price correction, Saudis hurt 加拿大 & 俄国!

最后，我们有 两次全球石油基准的价格修正反映了更广泛的宏观经济环境，伴随着股市下跌和全球15个评级的下调’穆迪最大的银行’s。 NYMEX WTI远期期货合约周四跌至每桶80美元以下，这是自2011年10月以来的首次，而布伦特原油期货大约在上次查看时抵制90美元的交易价90.77美元。

基准已经显示了近三个月的看跌趋势，但是它们仍未反映出更广泛的宏观经济环境。直到昨天。的‘only way is up’如当前情况所示，基于线性供需排列的逻辑逻辑简化了该论点。美联储（Fed）缺乏QE3，美元走强，中国，印度和欧洲数据疲弱等因素最终影响了市场情绪。–不是提供完美的风暴，而是提供完美的现实！ 德国商业信心水平下降 加剧了持续一段时间的看跌趋势。

Despite negative sentiments 和 the possibility of 布伦特 trading below US$100 per barrel for prolonged periods between now 和 Q1 2013, 欧佩克 did not cut its quota last week. 沙特阿拉伯, which is so dominant within the cartel, 其实想降低价格 因为布伦特原油价格可能跌至每桶85美元。

从地缘政治的角度来看，沙特人不仅对伊朗（可能是高兴地）施加了制裁打击，而且还对俄罗斯（也许是有意地）和加拿大（几乎肯定是在不知不觉中）发出了坏消息。沙特与伊朗的竞争已经不止一次‘crude’规模，但几乎可以肯定，与俄罗斯一道围绕市场支配地位。油鬼’的假设是，当 俄语 production first overtook Saudi production in 2009.

作为世界’s leading producer for over two years, 莫斯科 was causing Riyadh some discomfort. So the Saudis raised their game with the Libyan conflict 和 伊朗ian sanctions giving them ample excuses to do so. Constantly flouting 欧佩克 production quotas, 今年2月，沙特阿拉伯从俄罗斯夺回了头把交椅. Now with prices in reverse, it is the 俄语s who are sweating having rather bizarrely balanced their budget by factoring in an oil price in the circa of US$110 to US$120 per barrel.

几个独立机构，评级机构（例如S&P) 和 even former finance minister 阿列克谢·库德林 repeatedly warned 俄国 about overreliance on oil. The sector accounts for nearly 70% of 俄语 exports 和 Vladimir 普京 has done little to alter that dynamic both as prime minister 和 president in successive tenures.

Realising the 俄语 position was not going to change over the short term 和 with a near 10% (or above) dip in production 在 some of their major fields; the Saudis ramped up their production. A masterstroke or precisely a deft calculated hand played by Minister 阿里·纳奈米 planked on the belief that amid bearish trends the 俄语s simply do not have the prowess, or in fact the incentive, to pump 和 dump more 原油 on the market has worked.

A 俄语 production rise to 10 million bpd is possible in theory, but very difficult to achieve in practice in this macroeconomic climate. So the markets (and the Saudis) expect Russia to fall back on their US$500 billion in reserves to balance the books over the short to medium term rather than ramp-up production. Furthermore, unless the 俄语s invest, the Saudis’手只会得到加强，他们的地位‘crude’刺激提供者得到加强。

加拿大’s oil sands business while not a direct Saudi target is indeed an accidental victim. The impact of a fall in the price of 原油 will also be very different as 加拿大’经济远比俄罗斯多样化’s. Instead of a decline in production, the ongoing oil sands 和 shale prospection points to a potential rise.

Canadian prospection remains positive for Canadian consumers 和 exporters alike; provincial 和 federal governments want it, justice wants it, PM wants it 和 the public certainly want it. However, developing the Athabasca oil sands 和 Canadian shale plays (as well as US’ Bakken play) is capital 和 labour intensive.

对于油砂– holding the world’是仅次于沙特阿拉伯的第二大探明石油资源’s Dhahran region – to be profitable, 原油 price should not plummet below US$60 per barrel. Three visits by the 油腻的 to 卡尔加里 和 interaction with colleagues 在 CAPP, advisory, legal 和 energy firms in Alberta between 2008 和 2011 threw up a few points worth reiterating amidst this current 原油 价格修正 phase. First of all, anecdotal evidence suggests that while it would rather not, Alberta’省政府甚至可以将价格下跌至每桶35至40美元。

其次，在2007年第二季度至2008年第一季度之间，当原油价格达到令人眼花height乱的高位时，油田服务公司和工程公司以高价聘请了人才，但六个月后，由于金融危机，价格实际上暴跌至每桶37美元，因此才解雇了他们。危机。经过一轮裁员，到2010年，卡尔加里和麦克默里堡又一次出现了招聘狂潮。行业的周期性性质意味着情况将会如此。加拿大人仍然致力于石油&天然气行业，在此博客中’拙劣的见解可以比俄国人更好地应对周期性的起伏。

最后，加拿大既没有国家石油公司，也不是任何行业卡特尔的成员。但出于纯粹的经济学考虑，它也需要大约每桶80美元的价格。如果价格暴跌，或者沙特人沉迷于战术生产策略（如目前的情况），您将处于平稳状态， ’d rather be a Canadian than a 俄语.

油腻的长期以来一直怀疑沙特人将加拿大人视为保险业的同伴，‘石油需求破坏’ 和 vying for a slice of the American market; for them the 伊朗ians 和 俄语s are just market miscreants. That the market itself is mischievous 和 Canadians might join the 'miscreants' list if proposed North American pipelines come onstream is another matter! That’所有人都在眼前！继续阅读，保持“粗俗”！

© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2012. Photo 1: 俄语 pump jacks © 卢克. Photo 2: Red Square, Moscow, 俄国 ©Gaurav Sharma2004。照片3： Downtown 卡尔加里, Alberta, 加拿大 © 高拉夫·夏尔马 2011.