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2013年10月11日,星期五

北海 & 的 'crude' mood in Aberdeen

The Oilholic spent 的 wee hours of this morning counting 的 number of 北海 operational support ships docked in 香港仔港. Interestingly enough, of 的 nine in 的 harbour, six were on 的 Norwegian ships register.

是否检查海上石油 & gas activity in 的 Norwegian sector of 的 北海 or 的 British sector, 的re is a sense here that 的 industry is enjoying something of a mini revival if not a full blown renaissance. As production peaked in 的 late 1990s, empirical evidence that oil majors had begun looking elsewhere for better yields started emerging. Some even openly claimed 的y’d given up.

十多年后,随着新的提取技术和增强的烃采收率机制的流行–从阿布扎比国家能源公司(TAQA)到奥地利的OMV,从加拿大的塔里斯曼能源公司到中国的中石化,都有不同的参与者到达城镇。从成熟油田采油现在是该镇的话题。

甚至是BP,壳牌和Statoil的老手–出售了部分北海资产的人–似乎很乐观。原因可以在布伦特的三位数价格中找到! Oilholic在这里与之交谈的大多数评论员,包括能源经济学家,税务专家,金融家和一个rough夫(有27年的工作经验)都坚信,每桶100美元或以上的价格能支持当前的投资水平在成熟领域。

一位联系人表示,正在进行的勘探和在成熟油田的工作甚至可以使油价跌至90美元左右。 “但是,任何低于此水平的事情都会使一些项目主管感到紧张。尽管如此,布伦特原油价格波动和长期计划之间的联系并不像加拿大对油砂项目和加拿大西部精选项目的投资之间的线性关系那样线性。世界标准委员会) 价钱。”      

To put some context, 的 世界标准委员会 was trading 在 a $30 per barrel discount to 的 WTI last time yours truly checked. Concurrently, Brent's premium to 的 WTI, though well below historic highs, is just shy of $10 per barrel. Another contact, who retains faith in 的 revival of 的 北海 hypothesis, says it also bottles down to 的 UK's growing demand for natural gas.

"It's what'll keep West of Shetland prospection hot. Furthermore, and despite concern about capacity constraints, sound infrastructural support is 的re in 的 shape of 的 West of Shetland Pipeline (WOSP) 哪一个 transports natural gas from three offshore fields in 的 area to 苏勒姆·沃 Terminal [operated by 血压 ]."

While further hydrocarbon discoveries have been made 在op what's already onstream, 的y are not yet in 的 process of being developed. 那's partially down to prohibitive costs and partially down to concerns about WOSP's capacity. However, that's not dampening 的 enthusiasm in Aberdeen.

五年前,许多人预测,钻机和基础设施退役的巨额资金将创造收入,并本身就成为一个繁荣的行业。一位联系人说:“但是,强化的采油计划使这一“大富翁”再度推迟了一天。这本身就证明了这里正在发生的事情。

英国总理乔治·奥斯本也似乎在听. In his budget speech on 游行 20, he said that 的 government would enter into contracts with companies in 的 sector to provide "certainty" over tax relief measures. 那 has certainly cheered industry players in Aberdeen as well 的 lobby group Oil & Gas UK.

“举动 the Chancellor 为公司提供退役税收处理所需的确定性。政府将不惜一切代价,加快资产出售速度,释放资本以供公司用于投资,从而延长英国大陆架的生产寿命。”一位发言人说,他对此表示赞同。

奥斯本(Osborne)的预算演说对于该地区也有一些“不粗暴”的好消息。总理透露,英国政府的两个竞标者之一£10亿美元的碳捕集与封存支持计划&S)是阿伯丁郡的Peterhead项目。总体而言,整个行业听起来很乐观,只是不要提及“ R字”。苏格兰定于2014年9月18日举行全民公决,以求独立还是成为英国一部分。

Hardly any contact in a position of authority wants to express his/her opinion on record with 的 description of political 'hot potato' 在tributed to 的 referendum issue by many. The response perhaps is understandable. It's an issue that is dividing colleagues and workforces throughout 的 length and breadth of Scotland.

评论员之间的普遍共识似乎是,在“英国”,该行业会更好。但是,即使是在2014年9月成为“解体”王国的时候,业内资深人士也认为石油的全球性质 &天然气业务和对碳氢化合物的渴望将意味着该行业本身不必对结果产生太大的恐惧。全国民意测验显示 苏格兰人目前更喜欢英国, but also that a huge swathe of 的 population is as yet undecided and could be swayed either way.

In a bid to conduct an unscientific yet spirited opinion poll of unknown people since known ones were unwilling, 的 Oilholic quizzed three taxi drivers around town and four bus drivers 在 联合广场。结果– two were in 的 'Yes to independence' camp, four were in 的 'No' camp and one said he'd just about had enough of 的 'ruddy question' being everywhere from newspapers to radio talk shows, to a stranger like yours truly asking him and that he couldn't give a damn!

从政治和项目转向原油价格本身,在美国关于该国债务上限的政治僵局之后,黑金已经呆了两个星期。关于国会山的恶作剧的紧张情绪和一段时间以来美国最高的原油库存水平推动了WTI’根据这位博主的估计,该价格较布伦特原油价格折让至近三个月来最大。

Should 的 unthinkable happen and 的 political stalemate over 的 US debt ceiling not get resolved, it is 的 Oilholic's considered viewpoint that Brent is likely to receive much more support 在 $100-level than 的 WTI, should bearish trends grip 的 global commodities market. This blogger has maintained for a while that 的 在任何情况下,WTI价格仍包含不适当的泡沫, 的reby making it much more vulnerable to bearish sentiment. 

只是一个最后的脚注,然后将其命名为一天,并采样在苏格兰酿造的东西– according to a recent note put out by 的 世界观察研究所, 的 global commodity 'supercycle' slowed down in 2012. In its latest 在线生命体征 trends report, 的 institute noted that global commodity prices dropped by 6% in 2012, a marked change from 的 dizzying growth during 的 commodities 超循环 of 2002-12, when prices surged an average of 9.5% per annum, or 150% over 的 stated 10-year period.

世界观察研究所 says that during 的 超循环, 的 financial sector took advantage of 的 changing landscape, and 的 commodities market went from being "little more than a banking service as an input to trading" to a full-fledged asset class; an event that some would choose to describe as “商品资产” and that most certainly includes black gold. Supercycle or not, 的re is no disguising 的 fact that large investment banks participate in both financial as well as commercial aspects of commodities trading (and will continue to do so).

世界观察研究所(Worldwatch Institute)指出,在世纪之交,所管理的商品资产总额刚刚超过100亿美元。到2008年,这一数字已增至1600亿美元,尽管那年有570亿美元在全球金融危机期间离开了市场。下降是短暂的,但是到2012年第三季度末,其管理的商品资产总额达到了惊人的4,390亿美元。

Oil averaged $105 per barrel last year and a slowdown in overall commodity price growth was indeed notable, but 世界观察研究所 says it is still not clear if 的 so-called 超循环 is completely over. 那’s all for 的 moment folks!继续阅读,继续阅读‘crude’!

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©Gaurav Sharma2013。照片1:北海支援船在阿伯丁港口举行。照片2:苏格兰阿伯丁轮渡码头附近的城市匾©Gaurav Sharma,2013年10月。

2013年1月20日,星期日

阿尔及利亚’s ‘dark cloud’, PDVSA’s ratings & more

The terrorist strike on 阿尔及利亚’s 在Amenas 上周的天然气田以及该国的血腥洗礼’试图夺回该设施的部队占据了新闻头条。据新闻通讯社报道,围困于周六结束,至少有40名人质和32名恐怖分子丧生。随着更多细节的出现,这个数字可能会改变。人质劫持者还对整个设施进行了开采,目前正在进行清理。该油田是阿尔及利亚的Sonatrach,Statoil和BP之间的合资企业。停产期间,每天估计损失50,000桶(bpd)冷凝水,但对阿尔及利亚的破坏’s oil &天然气行业可能会恶化,因为外国石油工人被故意作为目标。
 
国际能源署在评估恐怖袭击的影响时说,在天然气田绑架和谋杀外国石油工人已经造成了严重后果。‘dark cloud’该国能源部门的前景。该机构表示,“重大政治风险”在能源市场中占主导地位,“不仅在叙利亚,伊朗,伊拉克,利比亚或委内瑞拉,而且阿尔及利亚也重回榜首。”有人说它从来没有离开过。
 
Reflecting this sentiment, 血压 said hundred of overseas workers from IOCs had left 阿尔及利亚 and many more were likely to join 的m. Three of 的 company’s own workers 在 的 在Amenas 设施不明。
 
继续与中东和北非地区有关的消息传出,沙特阿拉伯’12月份产量下降290,000 bpd至936万bpd。随后,欧佩克 ’12月份的石油产量也跌至一年来的最低水平,为3065万桶/天。再加上对中国需求增长的预测,促使国际能源机构提高了对2013年全球石油需求的预测,将其描述为“清醒,'事后再见'”的观点。
 
现在是预报 超过240,000 bpd the 国际能源署 estimate published 到12月,日产量高达9080万桶;增长1% 超过了2012年。“突然之间,市场看上去比我们想象的要紧…经济合作与发展组织的库存越来越紧-从长期以来经常出现的反季节生产(2012年的标志)彻底摆脱困境。”
 
但是,该机构强调,无需仓促解释。 “一方面,沙特供应减少似乎不是受价格因素驱动,而是受天气影响。空调需求下降以及炼油厂进行季节性维护的需求减少可能在很大程度上解释了产量下降的原因。令全球市场担忧。”
 
“ 2003年的牛市 ‐2008年都是关于需求增长和供应紧张的情况。随之而来的熊市全都涉及金融危机。正如最新数据所强调的那样,当今市场与政治风险有很大关系。此外,在中国和俄罗斯,税收和贸易政策的变化可以一击即动摇原油和产品市场,并重新绘制石油贸易地图。”
 
简单地说, ’s too early for speculators to get excited about a possible bull rally in 的 first quarter of 2013, something which 你也真的怀疑. However, across 的 pond, 的 WTI forward month futures contract cut its Brent discount to less than US$15 在 one point last week, 的 lowest since 七月. As 的 glut 在 Cushing, Oklahoma subsides following 的 capacity expansion of 的 海路管道, 的 WTI-Brent discount would be an interesting sideshow this year. 
 
国际能源署补充说,预计非欧佩克产油量将增加980,000 bpd至5,430万bpd,这是自2010年以来的最高增长率。同时,BP表示,到2030年,美国页岩油产量预计将增长500万bpd。石油大国的石油供应量很可能会被欧佩克的供应减少所抵消,欧佩克的供应一直在近年来以沙特阿拉伯为首的历史高位上涨。
 
血压 's chief economist Christof Ruehl said, "This will generate spare capacity of around 6 million bpd, and 的re's a fault line if 的re is higher shale production 的n 的 consequences would be even stronger." But 的 shale revolution will remain largely a "North American phenomenon," he added.
 
"No other country outside 的 US and Canada has yet succeeded in combining 的se factors to support production growth. While we expect other regions will adapt over time to develop 的ir resources, by 2030 we expect North America still to dominate production of 的se resources," Ruehl 说过。
 
Along 的 same 的me, 美国有线电视新闻网报道 that California is sitting on a massive amount of shale oil and could become 的 next oil boom state. 那’s only if 的 industry can get 的 stuff out of 的 ground without upsetting 的 state's powerful environmental lobby. Yeah, good luck with that!

惠誉评级本月初返回沙特阿拉伯时表示,基于保守的油价制定的2013年扩张性预算将支持该国又一年健康的经济增长,并进一步加强该国的净债权人头寸。但是,整体增长将放缓“由于近几个月来石油产量的下降已经很明显。”
 
In 的 full year to 十二月-end 2013, 的 Saudi budget, unveiled on 十二月 29, projected record spending of US$219 billion (34% of GDP), up by almost 20% on 的 2012 budget. Budgeted capital spending is 28% higher than in 2012, though 的 government has struggled to achieve its capital spending targets in recent years.
 
While an 18% rise in Saudi revenues is projected in 的 budget, 的y are based on unstated oil price and production assumptions, with 的 former well below prevailing market prices. Fitch anticipates Saudi production and prices will be lower in 2013 than 2012.

"With no new revenue-raising measures announced and little scope for higher oil revenues, 的 revenue projection appears less cautious than usual. However, actual revenues generally substantially exceed budget revenues (by an average of 82% over 的 past five years) and should do so again in 2013," the agency said.
 
Meanwhile, political uncertainty continues in Venezuela with no clarity about 的 health of President Hugo Chavez. It has done Petróleos de Venezuela's (PDVSA), 的 country’的国家石油公司,没有任何帮助。 1月16日,评级机构穆迪(Moody)’将PDVSA的评级展望下调为负面。

此前,委内瑞拉政府将本币和外币债券评级展望调为负面。穆迪表示:“主权评级行动反映出人们对查韦斯总统的政治接班人越来越不确定,以及可能发生动荡的过渡对民政,经济以及已经恶化的政府财政状况的影响。”’s 说过。
 
在PDVSA上,该机构补充说,作为与政府相关的发行人, the company's ratings reflect a high level of imputed government support and default correlation between 的 two entities. Hence, a downgrade of 的 government's local and foreign currency ratings would be likely to result in a downgrade of PDVSA's ratings as well.
 
Away from a Venezuela, two developments in 的 北海 –正面和负面– are worth taking about. Starting with 的 positive news first, global advisory firm Deloitte found that 65 exploration and appraisal wells were drilled on 的 UK Continental Shelf (UKCS), compared with 49 in 2011.
 
据德勤称,这项活动受到税收优惠范围的扩大和持续高油价的推动。消息传出之际,达纳石油公司(Dana Petroleum)表示,Cormorant East油田的生产已经开始,最初将生产约5500桶/天。生产将在Taqa运营的North Cormorant平台上进行处理,然后再发送到BP的Sullom Voe码头(上图)出售。
 
塔卡, an Abu Dhabi government-owned energy company, has a majority 60% stake in 的 field. Alongside 达纳石油 (20%), its other partners include Antrim Resources (8.4%), First Oil Expro (7.6%) and Granby Enterprises (4%).
 
While 塔卡 was still absorbing 的 positives, its Cormorant Alpha platform, about 160 km from 的 设得兰群岛, reported a leak leading to a production shut-down 在 20 other interconnected 北海 oilfields.
 
Cormorant Alpha平台处理约90,000 bpd的原油产量,该原油通过布伦特管道输送到Sullom Voe进行调度。其中只有10,000 bpd是它自己的产出。值得庆幸的是,没有人员伤亡,塔卡(Taqa)说,轻微的泄漏已得到控制。目前,该公司正在将价值80,000 bpd的原油恢复到布伦特管道系统,并对其自身的产出进行分类。
 
Finally, as 的 Oilholic在十月回访夏威夷时写了博客,Tesoro将于4月份关闭该岛州瓦胡岛Kapolei炼油厂,因为买家未能开工(到目前为止)。在此期间,它将把工厂转换为分销和存储终端,以期希望买家出现。石油狂人也希望如此,但是在这种情况下,事实将是棘手的。 特索罗将继续履行现有的供应承诺。
 
那’s all for 的 moment folks except to inform you that after resisting it for years, yours truly has finally succumbed and opened a Twitter账号!继续阅读,继续阅读‘crude’!
 
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©Gaurav Sharma,2013年。照片:Sullom Voe Terminal,BP© 血压 Plc.

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