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2012年5月25日,星期五

欧元区危机与100美元/桶的价格下限

在欧元区危机中迅速 evolving into a farcical stalemate 过度 希腊’的前景,5月13日,沙特阿拉伯 Arabia’s 油 minister Ali al-Naimi told a Reuters journalist 在 an event in 阿德莱德认为,每桶100美元“great price” for 原油 油. In 仅仅六天后,这一评论就在世界范围内广为报道 证实沙特的产量已从985.3万增加 barrels  2月至 9.923 bpd in 游行 with the kingdom 过度taking 俄国 as the world's largest 六年来第一次产油。

在上下文中,国际能源论坛说 俄罗斯3月份的产量从94.3万桶/天降至99.2万桶/天。 二月。沙特阿拉伯3月份出口了770.4万桶/天,而748.5万桶/天 2月的bpd,但俄罗斯没有官方数据。什么 al-Naimi说,在最好的情况下,沙特的出口有多重要 情况更是如此,在欧盟于7月1日实施禁令之前 of imports of 伊朗ian 原油 and market theories about how it could strain supplies.

市场消息显示沙特人已经抽水 大约1000万桶/日,在今年的大部分时间里,并声称有2.5 百万桶/天的备用容量。实际上,2011年11月的产量微不足道 将1000万桶/日的上限限制为1004.7万桶/日, 根据官方数据。 al-Naimi那天说他很舒服 with 冰 布伦特 原油 was comfortably above US$110 per barrel. At 10:00 GMT 今天,布伦特原油阻力在106美元,WTI阻力在91美元。欧佩克尽一切努力’s 昨晚和迪拜OQD的购物篮价格为103.49美元’s forward month (7月)今天的结算价为103.65美元。

纽约商品交易所轻质原油除外 石油期货合约,基准价格略高于所述水平 纳伊米(Na-Naimi)撰写的文章远胜于沙特(Saudi)预算的收支平衡价格 阿拉伯以其财政平衡和国内支出为 七月份讨论的Oilholic.

希腊或没有希腊,这座城市中的大多数仍然存在 深信唯一的办法就是向上。法国兴业银行’的短期预测 (相对于远期价格)表明布伦特,迪拜甚至WTI仍将存在 轻松超过100美元大关。苏克敦金融说,当前的问题 analyst 默托·索科, is one of nervousness down to mixed 油 fundamentals, weak 美国经济数据,当然还有关于未来的不确定性 欧元区与希腊仍是主要议题,直到下一次六月选举 17.

“WTI 原油 油 breached the US$90 per barrel 于本周初触及每桶89.28美元的低位,但随后反弹 on Thursday, climbing above US$91 per barrel. 布伦特 油 also retreated sharply 试探低至每桶105美元,但很容易恢复和纠正 升至每桶107美元。我们继续期望特别高 volatile conditions across the 油 market, despite that 油 prices still lingering in 过度sold territory,” she adds.

不仅是油鬼,而且这已经离开了 BP Capital Partners创始人无与伦比的T. Boone Pickens 也是上周在CNBC上发表讲话’的美国Squawk Box,行业资深人士 said, “我看到所有表明价格上涨的基本面。我是 long (a little bit) on 油 but not much…我确实看到一个非常紧张的市场 向上。现在全球的长期需求是9100万桶/日,我不知道’t think it 该行业很容易满足该需求。”

皮肯斯认为供应可能短缺 从长远来看,抑制需求的唯一方法就是价格。远离 定价,在结束语中有一些值得注意的公司故事, 从凯恩能源开始 其董事会对三分之二的报告进行了三分之二的投票。 在年度股东大会上为大多数高级员工设定薪水和奖金的委员会 last week.

今年初,股东们被授予了 暴利地区£继凯恩(Cairn)之后的20亿 成功的印度企业及其后续出售。但是,以下 股东反叛了一项计划,以奖励董事长比尔·加默尔爵士 bonus of 过度 £300万已经撤回。此举不影响奖励 for the past year. 想知道格陵兰岛冒险,收效甚微 到目前为止,导致他们如此受宠若惊,或者这是更广泛的趋势的一部分 股东行动主义?

同时 金融时报那 UK defence contractor Qinetiq将供应荷兰皇家 带有压裂监视器的外壳。四舍五入 BP周三宣布了一项4亿美元的支出计划, 在其污染控制 印第安纳州怀廷炼油厂, 允许它处理 heavy 原油 油 从 加拿大,与美国当局达成协议。

Finally, more than half (58%) of 油 &天然气行业受访者对全球大型公司的新调查– 跨境M&答:对变化中的世界的看法 –由经济学人智库代表克利福德·机会(Clifford Chance)进行的调查表明,他们的M&A strategy is on emerging/high-growth economies as opposed to domestic (14%) and global developed markets (29%). The research surveyed nearly 400 companies with annual revenues in excess of US$1 billion 从 across a range of regions and industry sectors, including the 油 & gas sector. 那’所有人都在眼前!继续阅读,继续阅读‘crude’!

©Gaurav Sharma2012。照片: Oil worker in Oman © Royal Dutch 贝壳.

2012年5月8日,星期二

克林顿在加纳姆的克鲁德兰’s death & Cressier

美国国务卿希拉里·克林顿(Hillary 克林顿)一直在加紧努力,以说服印度和中国从伊朗进口更少的原油。虽然在访问期间,外交问题成为头条新闻,但据了解,克林顿给中国留下了深刻的印象,使他们降低了伊朗的进口。但是,最近 media reports 这表明经济大国不是在寻求从伊朗以外的替代物供应,而是在寻求从美元到德黑兰的替代支付方式。首先,路透社援引伊朗驻阿拉伯联合酋长国大使穆罕默德·雷扎·法亚德(Mohammed Reza Fayyad)承认,伊朗正接受向中国出口石油的人民币实物支付。然后,《金融时报》报道说,中国一直在通过俄罗斯银行而不是其自己的国际银行向伊朗提供人民币。

克林顿到达印度后,也向新德里传达了类似的信息。她“commended”印度降低了对伊朗进口产品的依赖,敦促其做更多。但是,由于 油腻的 noted on 他的non-state visit to 印度 earlier this year - 印度n policymakers openly admit this is easier said than done. Meanwhile conspiracy theories about the death on 四月 29 of former 利比亚n Oil Minister Shokri Ghanem, whose body was found in the River Danube in 维也纳, are unlikely to go away with 他的funeral held four days ago.

In 六月 2011, 他的defection 从 the Gaddafi regime was the epicentre of media gossip – both in the 加速 参加第159次欧佩克会议以及 活动本身 where 他的defection relieved some and riled others. Some doubted 他的intentions while others doubted that he’d even defected.

自从他叛逃以来,他一直与家人一起住在维也纳并担任顾问,这一切都是公共领域。自从加纳姆以来,这似乎是一个自然的选择。’与这座城市的联系可以追溯到几十年前。他曾在维也纳旧的欧佩克总部担任过多个职务,并于1993年升任研究主管,之后他先后担任卡扎菲政府总理和石油部长,这标志着他定期回到维也纳直到去年。

油鬼’s sources in 维也纳 suggest the Austrian authorities have ruled out foul play. All yours truly knows is that a passer-by saw 他的body in the river and called the police who found no other documents on him other than business cards of 他的consultancy. There were no signs of violence on the body and it is thought that he died of natural causes. At the time of 他的death, he was setting up a 与另一位欧佩克资深人士-阿尔及利亚的Chakib Khelil和其他投资者开展业务。

However back home, the new government in Tripoli never trusted him despite 他的defection and was in fact preparing a court case against him for making illegal gains during 他的time in the Gaddafi regime. Regardless of its circumstances, the void left by 他的death would be felt in Viennese diplomatic circles and 在 欧佩克 HQ where he began 他的career in earnest.

追溯到2008年,Oilholic记得他与Ghanem的第一次互动是来自 部长会议,记者争先恐后地用流利的英语接受他的回答。随着他的老板卡扎菲谴责恐怖主义并从寒冷中重返国际社会,他在维也纳的听众越来越多。加纳姆本人是圣人还是罪人,现在将永远不知道。

Away 从 原油 politics, troubled refiner Petroplus’管理人员为其瑞士资产找到了买家–克雷西耶炼油厂–贸易公司Vitol和AltasInvest的合资企业Varo Holding。根据出售协议,Petroplus的现金短缺将把Cressier以及相关的瑞士营销和物流资产-Petroplus Tankstorage,Oleéoducdu JuraNeuchâtelois和SociétéFrançaisedu Pipeline du Jura转移到Varo。

消息人士暗示,瓦罗希望在6月底之前完成交易。 此后计划重新启动每天68,000桶的炼油设施。 Finally, fresh economic headwinds are bringing about a price correction in the 原油 markets as recent elections in 希腊 and 法国 have triggered a Greek Tragedy (Part II) and a Geek Tragedy (a.k.a. Francois Hollande) respectively.

国会议员对政治的僵局充满恐惧 希腊上一次未能实现的救助计划一方面影响了市场情绪。在法国的其他新当选的社会党总统– Francois Hollande –认为他的命令不足以令人信服,是法国公开投票反对‘austerity’ and perhaps uncosted grandiose spending plans. On Tuesday, 油 trading sessions either side of the pond remained volatile in light of the situation.

苏克敦金融分析师Myrto Sokou指出,过去几天发生的事件总结了市场的紧张情绪,“西班牙已确认将提供更多资金,以拯救银行第三大银行Bankia(按资产计算)。在希腊,政治局势仍不确定,因为该国在星期日后仍没有政府’s elections…由于希腊选民拒绝了进一步的紧缩计划,签署欧盟救助备忘录的当事方现在为少数。”

同时,法国兴业银行(SociétéGénérale)的分析师认为,总体看跌情绪和仍然疲弱的基本面应继续合并并占上风,整个能源综合体似乎将继续向下修正。“石油在2012年的表现优于其他欧洲能源商品,但在5月的第一周似乎有所改变。石油价格行为将是避免欧洲能源价格进一步下滑的关键,” they note.

As if that was not 原油 enough, an investment note by Citibank just hitting the wires suggests there is now a 75% possibility that 希腊 would be forced to leave the Eurozone within 12 to 18 months. With no swift Eurozone solution in sight, be prepared to expect further volatility and perceptively bearing trends in the 原油 markets. 那’所有人都在眼前!继续阅读,继续阅读‘crude’!

©Gaurav Sharma2012。照片: Oil Rig © 凯恩能源 Plc.

2012年1月24日,星期二

EU’的伊朗禁令,即将到来的印度冒险之旅和凯恩

Earlier on Monday and in line with market expectations, the European Union agreed to impose an embargo on the import of 伊朗ian 原油 油. The EU, which accounts for 20% of 伊朗’s 原油 exports, now prohibits the import, purchase and transport of 伊朗ian 原油 油 and petroleum products as well as related finance and insurance. All existing contracts will have to be phased out by 七月 1st, 2012.

In response, 伊朗 declared 禁令 as "unfair" and "doomed to fail", said it will not force it to change course on its controversial nuclear programme and renewed threats to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Going into further details, EU Investment in as well as the export of key equipment and technology for 伊朗's petrochemical sector is also banned.

A 措辞强烈的联合声明 英国首相戴维·卡梅伦(David Cameron),法国总统尼古拉·萨科奇(Nicolas Sarkozy)和德国总理安格拉·默克尔(Angela Merkel)说,“在伊朗上台之前,我们将团结起来采取强有力的措施破坏该政权’为其核计划供资的能力,以及证明威胁我们所有人的和平与安全的道路的成本。”

那’一切都很好,是的,它将伤害伊朗,但除非中国,印度和日本等主要的亚洲进口国决定也禁止伊朗进口,否则欧盟’s ban would not have the desired impact. Of these, 中国 alone imports as much 伊朗ian 油 as the EU, Japan accounts for 17% of the country’的出口,其次是印度(16%)和韩国(9%)。

因此,在亚洲主要经济体加入禁运之前,欧盟和伊朗都将最终伤害自己。正如苏克敦(Sucden)财务报告所总结的那样,“Unless a deal can be agreed unilaterally, it is likely that the weak European economies could suffer 从 firmer 原油 prices whilst relatively robust Asian economies might benefit 从 preferential 原油 trade agreements.”

人们认为中国和日本不愿效仿,因为人们认为日本和韩国在做出反应之前正在寻求其他来源的供应保证。印度’在欧盟大爆发前的反应冷淡’的决定。现在已经做出决定,有趣的是要注意到印度政府的反应。石油狂人本周将前往印度(以及下半个月的大部分时间),并将尝试嗅探公众和政府的情绪。

Meanwhile, 惠誉评级 has said the EU embargo will increase geopolitical risk in the Middle East region supporting high 油 prices. 代理商 considers blocking the Strait of Hormuz - the world's most important 油 chokepoint - 这是一个低概率的情况,并且认为,如果确实实现交易障碍,那么对贸易路线的任何阻碍都将持续很短的时间。

惠誉欧洲能源,公用事业和法规小组负责人Arkadiusz Wicik和Oilholic的老联系人’s, feels that the EU ban on 伊朗ian 油 is largely credit neutral for EU integrated 油 and gas companies. "The cash flow impact of 禁令 may be negative for refining operations, but should be positive or neutral for upstream operations," he says.

The most likely scenario is that the EU embargo will result in higher 油 prices. However, prices may not necessarily increase markedly 从 current levels as some of the risks related to the EU ban on 伊朗ian 油 appear factored in already.

新的惠誉报告进一步说明 the ban is likely to have a moderately negative impact on EU refiners as high 油 prices may further erode demand for refined products in Europe. This would worsen the already weak supply-demand balance in European refining. The embargo may also change 油 price spreads in Europe as 伊朗ian 原油 imports would likely be replaced with alternative 原油, which may be priced 在 a lower discount to 布伦特 than 伊朗ian 原油 油.

EU refiners' security of 油 supply is unlikely to be substantially affected by an 伊朗 ban. There are alternative suppliers, such as Saudi 阿拉伯 (which has said it is able and willing to increase 油 production to meet additional demand), 俄国 and Iraq. 利比亚n 油 production is also recovering. 伊朗ian 油 accounted for just 5.7% of total 油 imports to the EU in 2010, and 4.4% in Q111. Furthermore, the sanctions will be implemented gradually by 七月 1st, 2012, which should give companies that use 伊朗ian 原油 油 time to find alternative suppliers, the report notes.

Southern European countries - Italy, Spain and 希腊 - are the largest importers of 伊朗ian 原油 油 in the EU. A rise in 油 prices could be further bad news for these countries, which already face a weak economic outlook in 2012.

“The impact of the new US sanctions signed into law late last year against 伊朗 is difficult to predict 在 this stage. It is not certain whether Asian countries, which are by far the largest importers of 伊朗ian 原油, accounting for about 70% of total 伊朗ian 油 imports, will substantially reduce supplies 从 伊朗 in 2012 and replace them with other 欧佩克 sources as a result of the new US sanctions,”惠誉报告进一步指出。

代理商’的报告确实做了一个非常重要的观察–自禁令的消息首次出现以来,就一直在纽约市进行巡逻– that’s if Asian reduction is substantial, in combination with the EU ban, it could considerably lower 欧佩克's spare production capacity. In such a scenario, the global 油 market would have less flexibility in the event of large unexpected supply interruptions elsewhere, potentially sending 油 prices much higher than current levels.

摆脱伊朗局势,凯恩能源已将其格陵兰岛勘探许可证中的30%股权出售给挪威’Statoil。英国独立新贵花了将近£去年有4亿美元的勘探成本,几乎没有证据表明它没有商业可利用性 oil 或记录了天然气发现。尽管持股比例已经透露,但凯恩和Statoil都没有说要支付多少股份。尽管如此,无论金额多少,它都将帮助凯恩减轻勘探成本和风险 因为它似乎长期在格陵兰。

在其他地方,炼厂方面有正面和负面的消息。从坏消息开始,Petroplus的股票– Europe’最大的独立磨浆机–周一在瑞士第六证券交易所被停牌’的要求。随着人们对Petroplus违约后债务违约的担忧加剧&P上个月降级,又在1月17日降级,看起来像 the refiner 正在为自己的商业生活而战。

上个月,贷款人暂停了近10亿美元的信贷额度,这阻止了 Petroplus从为其五个炼油厂采购原油。然而,它仍然设法使位于科里顿(英国埃塞克斯)和英戈尔施塔特(德国)的炼油厂的产能下降。星期一晚些时候,彭博社报道说,送货卡车没有离开科里顿工厂, 对设施的担忧正在上升 ’拥有1000多名员工。普华永道已被任命为Petroplus英国业务的主管,该公司周二表示,其目标是在不中断的情况下继续运营Coryton工厂。 油腻的希望最好,但最坏的情况则恐惧。

转向炼油业务的利好消息,中国石油天然气集团公司,卡塔尔石油公司和荷兰皇家壳牌石油公司于1月20日商定了在华东投资126亿美元建设一家炼油和石化工厂的计划。显然,由于欧洲产能过剩和利润率低迷,基于消费模式,炼油业务的未来越来越依赖于远东地区。那’目前所有人都是如此。继续阅读,继续阅读‘crude’!

©Gaurav Sharma2012。照片: Oil tanker ©迈克尔·S·昆顿/国家地理.

2012年1月18日,星期三

国际能源署 on demand, 拉夫罗夫 on 伊朗 plus 原油 chatter

在最新的月度报告中,IEA根据纽约市的反馈确认了Oilholic在过去几个月中一直在写博客– that the likelihood of another global recession will inhibit demand for 原油 油 this year, a prevalent high 油 price might in itself hit demand too and seasonally mild weather already is.

尽管伊朗紧张局势和尼日利亚罢工等地缘政治因素支持了近期的看涨趋势,但IEA指出,与2010年同期相比,2011年第四季度的消费量按年度计算下降了。因此,该机构感到倾向于将其对2012年需求增长的预测从上个月的月度报告减少22万桶/日,降至110万桶。

“两个内在的破坏因素相互影响,给人以价格稳定的印象,而不是真实的印象。首先是在2012年,即使不是完全衰退,经济急剧放缓的可能性也在增加。第二个因素是抵消看跌压力,自2009年中以来,特别是自2010年中以来,实物市场的紧缩迹象明显。”

The 国际能源署 also suggests that a one-third downward revision to GDP growth would see this year's 油 consumption unchanged 在 2011 levels. On the 伊朗ian situation and its threat to disrupt flows in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global 油 output passes, the agency notes, “在2012年下半年期间,伊朗250万桶/日的原油出口中至少有一部分可能会拒绝经合组织的炼油厂,尽管似乎不太可能出现持续破坏霍尔木兹海峡过境的更多启示。”

Meanwhile, 俄国n foreign minister Sergei 拉夫罗夫 has weighed in to the 伊朗 debate with 他的own “chaos theory”. 据英国广播公司这位部长警告说,西方对伊朗的军事打击将是一场“灾难”,这将导致来自伊朗的难民“大量涌入”,并“煽动”中东派系紧张局势。以色列国防部长巴拉克(Ehud Barak)早些时候表示,关于以色列袭击伊朗的任何决定都“非常遥远”。

Meanwhile, one of those companies facing troubles of its own when it comes to procuring light sweet 原油 for European refiners is Italy’s 埃尼 which saw its long term corporate credit rating lowered by S&P来自“ A +”中的“ A”。另外,S&P从CreditWatch中删除了该评级,该评级在2011年12月8日被否定。

埃尼’根据S,s的前景为负面&P和降级反映了评级机构’s view that the Italian 油 major’s business risk profile and domestic assets have been impaired by the material exposure of many of its end markets and business units to the deteriorating Italian operating environment. 埃尼 reported consolidated net debt of €截至2011年9月30日为283亿。以前, 穆迪 ’s has also reacted to the Italian economy versus 埃尼 situation 过度 Q4 2011.

在其他地方,有关奥巴马政府的报道相互矛盾’拒绝给予Keystone XL项目许可的决定,油鬼党一直坚持的做法,对美国利益来说是愚蠢的举动,因为加拿大人可以而且会在其他地方寻找。一些报道称总统决定拒绝该项目的许可,而另一些报道则称不太可能在二月下旬之前做出决定。本文来自 蒙特利尔宪报 总结一下 周三的报道相互矛盾。

When the formal rejection by the US state department finally arrived, the President said he had been given insufficient time to review the plans by 他的Republican opponents. At the end of 2011, Republicans forced a final decision on the plan within 60 days during a legislative standoff.

The Republican Speaker of the US House of Representatives, John Boehner, criticised the 奥巴马 administration for its failure 过度 a project that would have created "hundreds of thousands of jobs" while the President responded by starting an online petition so that the general population can express its opposition to the 梯形XL pipeline.

提案的优缺点过后,整个旷日持久的事件代表了美国政治的愚蠢行为。加拿大人现在应该认真研究替代出口市场;他们已经有的东西 暗示. 油鬼's 木材贸易类比 总是使 加拿大人微笑。 (可悲的是,即使德州人也同意,尽管这不是笑话)。

On the 原油 pricing front, the short term geopolitically influenced bullishness continues to provide resistance to the WTI 在 the US$100 per barrel level and 布伦特 在 US$111. 苏克敦金融's 默托·索科 expects some further consolidation in the 油 markets due to the absence of major indicators and mixed signals 从 the global equity markets, while currency movements might provide some short-term direction. “在希腊债务谈判可能发布任何消息之前,投资者应保持谨慎,” Sokou warns.

最后,全球律师事务所贝克&McKenzie继续其最新一轮的《全球能源网络研讨会》 2011-2012年– 国际竞争法 – to follow on 1月25日至26日 which would be well worth listening in to. Antitrust Rules for Joint Ventures, Strategic Alliances and Other Modes of Cooperation with Competitors would also be under discussion. 那目前所有人都是如此。继续阅读,继续阅读'crude'!

©Gaurav Sharma2012。照片: 炼油厂,加拿大魁北克 ©迈克尔·梅尔福德(Michael Melford)/《国家地理》。

2012年1月13日,星期五

对伊朗,尼日利亚和其他一些地方的禁运即将来临

An EU ban on 伊朗ian 原油 imports in response to the country’持续的核计划迫在眉睫,但不是即时的,所以纽约市的分析师和政府消息来源会让您相信。此外,彭博社补充说,由于欧洲各国政府争先恐后寻求替代资源,计划中的禁运可能会推迟最多六个月。

日本和印度两国政府的广播也都在寻求减少对伊朗进口产品的依赖,而欧佩克则表示它不希望参与这一行列。添加尼日利亚的持续威胁打击威胁’s largest 油 workers union, the 彭加桑 以及第二大 牛朋,以及该国对伊朗局势的政治紧张局势,’不需要Oilholic告诉您短期风险溢价会变得温和。

到本周末已接近尾声,两项基准均已反弹,纽约市分析师预测短期看涨。苏克敦金融公司分析师杰克·波拉德指出,在每个人都争相寻找替代资源的情况下,压力已经在本已紧张的供应条件下上升。“考虑到近期的地缘政治风险溢价,布伦特’随着前线价差的不断扩大,倒退看起来相当有把握。由于美元回撤给商品施加了向上的压力,因此意向较好的意大利和西班牙的拍卖无疑支持了风险偏好,” he adds.

当Oilholic周四检查时,布伦特期货月份Futurex合约抵制每桶110美元的水平,而WTI抵制介于看跌的IEA报告和地缘政治足球之间的99美元的水平。接下来的几周肯定会很有趣。

Away 从 原油 pricing, to a few corporate stories, ratings agency 穆迪 ’s已确认在伦敦证券交易所(LSE)上市的印度自然资源公司Vedanta Resources Plc对Ba1的企业家族评级,但已将高级无抵押债券评级从Ba2降至Ba3。在2011年12月8日完成对凯恩印度公司控股权的收购之后,这两种评级的前景都维持在负面。

自2010年8月宣布这一举动以来,Vedanta已成功地谈判了批准,异议和修改后的生产合同安排的过程,现在直接持有Cairn 印度的38.5%的股份,另外Sesa Goa Ltd.持有该公司20%的股份,Vedanta的55.1拥有%的子公司。

穆迪 ’s认为,收购Cairn 印度将大大提高Vedanta的EBITDA,但该机构对母公司的债务负担急剧上升感到担忧。为了将其持股比例从28.5%提高到58.5%,Vedanta从其预先安排的收购工具中提取了27.8亿美元。加上2011年6月发行的16.5亿美元债券,母公司一级的债务目前在备考基础上已超过90亿美元。相比之下,截至2011年3月的报告母公司权益为10亿美元。

继续, Venezuelan 油 minister Rafael Ramírez said earlier this week that his 该国决定在2007年总统查韦斯(HugoChávez)将所有资源国有化之后,向埃克森美孚公司赔偿高达2.5亿美元。本月早些时候,巴黎国际商会表示,该国必须向埃克森美孚公司支付总计9.07亿美元,大量减少后的结果-达2.5亿美元。

在其他地方,律师事务所赫伯特·史密斯(Herbert Smith)一直在为汇丰银行(HSBC Bank Plc)和汇丰银行(埃及)提供5,000万美元的知识产权集团公司融资,为现有设施再融资和融资。 埃及知识产权石油资产的持续开发– one of a limited number of financings in the project finance space in Egypt since the revolution. It follows four other recent financings for 油 and gas assets in Egypt on which Herbert Smith has advised namely –海龙能源,笔克石油,Perenco石油和TransGlobe能源。

麦克德莫特·威尔(McDermott Will)在闭幕式上并坚持与律师事务所合作&埃默里(Emery)开设了新能源商业博客– 能源商法 –根据媒体公报,该报告将提供有关能源法发展的最新信息,以及对影响美国和国际能源市场的不断发展的监管,商业,税收和法律问题以及利益相关者如何应对的见解。 油腻的为MWE进入能源博客圈表示欢迎,并希望法律界的其他人士也能效仿这一辩论。继续阅读,保持“粗俗”!

©Gaurav Sharma2012。照片: Pipeline, South Asia © 凯恩能源.

2011年12月14日,星期三

欧佩克“保持” 3000万桶/天的产量

In line with market expectations and persistent rumours heard 这里 all morning in 维也纳, 欧佩克 has agreed to officially maintain its 原油 production quota 在 30 million 桶 per day (bpd) 在 its 160th meeting, thereby legitimising the increase the Saudis triggered after the 六月的最后一次会议.

欧佩克秘书长阿卜杜拉·萨利姆·埃尔·巴德里(Abdalla Salem 巴德里)表示,2011年价格波动加剧主要是由于地缘政治紧张局势加剧了商品市场投机水平的增加,而不是供需基本面的结果。

Ministers also expressed concern regarding the downside risks facing the global economy including the Euro-zone crisis, persistently high unemployment in the advanced economies, inflation risk in emerging markets and planned 紧缩 measures in OECD economies.

“All these factors are likely to contribute to lower economic growth in the coming year. Although world 油 demand is forecast to increase slightly during the year 2012, this rise is expected to be partially offset by a projected increase in non-OPEC supply,” 巴德里 noted.

因此,欧佩克决定奇怪地维持3000万桶/天的产量水平“包括现在和将来来自利比亚的生产”。该配额将在六个月内进行审核,不包括伊拉克的供应。卡特尔还同意,其成员将在必要时采取措施,包括自愿向下调整产出,以确保市场平衡和合理的价格水平。

The last bit stirred up the scribes especially as 巴德里, himself a 利比亚n, noted that 他的country’产量将恢复到100万桶/日“soon”随后是2012年第一季度末的130万桶/日,以及2010年第二季度末的160万桶/日;最后一个数字是战前水平。

尽管存在持续的质疑,秘书长仍坚持要满足利比亚的生产要求,并且要求所有成员正式坚持每天生产3000万桶石油。他补充说,当利比亚的生产回到战前水平时,个人配额将被重置。

埃尔·巴德里(El-Badri)也称“会议友好,成功, fruitful" and that 欧佩克 was not in the business of defending any sort of 原油 price. “我们一直都会并将其留给市场机制,” he concluded.

伊朗的罗斯特姆·加塞米(Rostem 加塞米)说,目前的欧佩克上限适合消费者和生产商。“我们和沙特人用一种声音说话。 ” He also said 他的country was "cool" on possible 油 export embargoes but neither had any news nor any inclination of embargoes being imposed against 他的country yet. 欧佩克 next meets in 维也纳 on 六月 14th, 2012.

继欧佩克’s move, the 油腻的 turned the floor 过度 to some friends in the analyst community. 杰森·申克(Jason Schenker), President and Chief Economist of Prestige Economics and a veteran 在 these events, believes 欧佩克 is addressing a key question of concern to its members with the stated ceiling.

“这个问题是如何应对全球增长放缓的问题,并使之与供应增加相抵触。欧佩克正在做的是-不仅使生产配额基本保持不变,而且将其保持在该水平上,” Schenker said.

“如果从现在起到2012年第2季度或第3季度之间,利比亚的生产确实确实有意义地投入生产或达到战前水平,那么明智的资金将通过可能从沙特阿拉伯减产的方式抵消,” he concluded.

默托·索科, analyst 在 苏克敦金融研究 , noted that an increase (or rather the acknowledgement of an increase) in the 欧佩克 production limit after three years might add further downward pressure to the 原油 price for the short-term with a potential for some correction lower in 原油 油 prices.

“最重要的是,欧元区的不确定局势继续主导市场,对大部分股票和大宗商品价格构成重压,并限制了风险偏好,”他说。在这一点上,欧佩克总部已告别。继续阅读,继续阅读‘crude’!

©Gaurav Sharma2011。照片:OPEC第160次会议在 奥地利维也纳-坐(R至L)欧佩克 秘书长阿卜杜拉·塞勒姆·埃尔·巴德里和总统罗斯干·加塞米 © 高拉夫·夏尔马 2011.

对欧佩克的&不休和利比亚人至关重要!

可信的 欧佩克部长和成员国抵达维也纳时提供的信息和一些声明’代表建议价格鹰派– chiefly 伊朗 –现在将接受“官方” 沙特阿拉伯及其盟国科威特和卡塔尔提高了生产配额。

那 would mean the cartel would now legitimise and accept a stated production cap of 30 million 桶 per day (bpd) 在6月有关该问题的谈判破裂,欧佩克部长们没有正式概述产出上限的情况下,所有成员国都感到担忧。

Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi has already been flexing 他的‘crude’ muscles。如果如预期的那样,欧佩克协议将所有12个欧佩克成员国的生产上限设定为3,000万桶/日,则将使卡特尔’s production in the region of a 3-year high. The stated volume would meet demand and leave enough surpluses to rebuild lean stocks by 650,000 bpd 过度 the period according to 欧佩克.

苏克敦金融研究 ’s Jack Pollard notes that an 欧佩克 production ceiling could provide some upside support if approved; Saudi opposition could suppress calls 从 伊朗. The return of 利比亚n and Iraqi 原油 油 should alleviate the market’紧张的供应条件。

“到年底时,欧洲和中东地区截然相反的尾巴风险似乎最有可能主导市场情绪。根据IEA的说法,如果对伊朗的制裁增加,可能会使产量减少25%,如果欧洲局势恶化,这可能减轻最严重的损失,” he concludes.

阿尔及利亚,科威特,尼日利亚和欧佩克秘书处的部长级代表团今天(明天)在这里开会时,也在这里寻求保证,以便为利比亚的供应恢复腾出空间,以便使集体生产不超过3000万桶/日。’s proceedings.

Most 欧佩克 producers would be comfortable with an 油 price of US$80 per barrel or above, while the Venezuelan and 伊朗ian position of coveting a US$100-plus price is well known. 科威特 Oil Minister Mohammad al-Busairi told reporters, “The market is balanced, there is no shortage and there is no 过度supply. We hope there will be an agreement that protects global economic growth.”

石油输出国组织(OPEC)在谈论利比亚生产恢复生产的话题时,石油党认为利比亚方面的关键人物可能或将使关键政治人物阿卜杜勒·拉希姆·基布(Rabik Rahim al-Keib)发挥作用。利比亚的’的投资机构)和 Abdurahman Benyezza(石油和天然气部长)。 国际公司 BP,埃尼,西方石油,OMV和Repsol也将在该国开展业务。那’所有人都在眼前!继续阅读,继续阅读‘crude’!

©Gaurav Sharma2011。照片:第160届欧佩克新闻发布会© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2011.

2011年12月5日,星期一

狂热的伊朗人,WPC和原油价格

在第20届世界石油大会上,伊朗人一如既往地热闹,没有迹象显示担心从各个角落遭受核武器袭击!一个人甚至费劲地给了油腻的人– his “Indian brother”具有英国国籍– the benefit of the doubt by explaining how 他的country’的核计划纯粹是为了和平目的。

可悲的是,随着以色列媒体继续每日轰炸可能即将发生的先发制人的空袭,石油狂人既没有被说服,也没有让市场感到动摇!最终结果,最后一次检查–ICE布伦特远期期货价格为每桶110.83美元,而WTI交易价格为102.04美元!那’为您或作为油鬼的价格的不稳定性溢价’新的伊朗兄弟说,“Its courtesy corrupt paper traders who have never seen a real barrel of 油 and OTC miscreants funded by Americans and Zionists”. Sigh!

Assessing the moderately bullish trend, 苏克敦金融研究 ’的分析师Myrto Sokou指出,“关于欧元区的担忧’s debt crisis have been somewhat alleviated while ongoing tensions between 伊朗 and the West continue to dominate the 油 market. Crude 油 prices continued to enjoy a strong rally, supported by the softer US dollar and growing tensions between 伊朗 and the West.”

Sokou further notes that the 伊朗ian foreign minister said during the weekend that a blanket ban on its 油 exports would drive 原油 prices to US$250 a barrel. But hang on a minute; the 油腻的 has been “reliably”知道是那些讨厌的纸贸易商吗?德拉特!

Despite that, neither Sokou nor any other analyst 这里 thinks the US$250 level is viable 在 the moment. Nonetheless the momentum is to the upside. Speaking of real 桶 of 油, the 油腻的 will get to see one again on Thursday thanks to a visit to Dukhan field courtesy of 木塑 and 卡塔尔石油. Meanwhile, a mega petroleum exhibition has kicked-off 这里 today. Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

©Gaurav Sharma2011。照片I:伊朗在第20届世界石油大会上的立场 展览。图二: 木塑展厅& entrance © 高拉夫·夏尔马 2011.

2011年10月27日,星期四

原油并购活动,专业收益和更多

随着我们临近年底,Oilholic坚信2011年将&A activity in the 油 &天然气行业重返甚至超过危机前的交易估值水平。研究 基础设施杂志 by this blogger suggests that while the year still has a little 过度 two months left the deal valuation figure for acquisition of 油 &以9月30日为截止日期的天然气基础设施资产远高于2008年的总估值,2008年是全球信贷紧缩严重限制资本流动的一年。

实际上,早在2008年,《基础设施杂志》就注意到23种石油& gas M&公司融资交易总值达193.3亿美元。然后,交易价值在2009年和2010年分别下降到181.4亿美元和167亿美元,而交易数量首先下降到19个,然后上升到32个。实际上,如果不是2009年,相对而言,2009年将是可悲的一年。涉及Stogit的63亿美元交易& Italgas. Big ticket 2010年基本上没有交易,虽然交易数量增加,但估值却下降了。 IJ分析师迄今已注意到2011年有21笔交易,交易总价值达271.1亿美元(还在增长)。 (点击图表放大©基础设施杂志)

贝克休斯顿合伙人迈克尔·伯德(Michael Byrd)& McKenzie feels that conditions for making an 油 &天然气资产收购非常有利,上游资产则更是如此。“这三个领域都存在机会– Downstream, Midstream and Upstream projects, but in case of the latter, projects in remote offshore and onshore basins have become more economical due to new technologies and more favourable 油 prices (long-term),”他在最近的网络研讨会上说,如果您打算进行资产收购,那么就可以吸引人的聆听,警告和所有注意事项。您可以下载录音 这里.

另外,贝克&McKenzie将于11月16日举行另一场网络研讨会, 全球能源网络研讨会系列。这个会 讨论有关税收筹划和合规性问题的整个周期 大型能源和电力项目的常设机构.

离开IJ’s figures and Baker &McKenzie网络研讨会,恩斯特财务顾问& Young’有关注释的研究表明,M的增加&A of London-based AiM-listed 油 &预计天然气公司的市场估值将大幅下跌。

该公司’s quarterly index shows the value of AiM-listed 油 and gas companies fell 26% in the three months to 九月. The index has been in decline since the start of 2011. Additionally, fundraising by AiM-listed 油 and gas companies totalled £第三季度为1.687亿,比去年同期下降48%。

Jon Clark, 油 &恩斯特的天然气合作伙伴&扬格说:“那些资产负债表较弱的公司,尤其是那些拥有开发项目的公司,将寻求规模更大,资本更充裕的收购者。全球经济复苏放缓以及美国信贷降级和欧元区主权债务等问题造成的市场动荡债务危机将继续使投资者摆脱风险较高的资产。第四季度的情况并不乐观。”

All-in-all, the remainder of 2011 would be a good time to swoop for an asset or even an entire mid-cap company. Concurrently, the 油 majors are queuing up to announce decent profits. The third quarter’壳牌公司当前的供应成本净收入成本为35亿美元,翻了一番,达到72亿美元 一年前同期。埃克森美孚的季度利润增长了41%,达到103亿美元。

本周早些时候,BP表示其业务是“regaining momentum” and that it had “turned a corner”报告第三季度利润为51.4亿美元,几乎是去年同期18.5亿美元重置成本利润的三倍。该公司还将资产出售计划从300亿美元增加到450亿美元。

Meanwhile, the British Energy and Climate Change Select Committee of MPs has criticised the UK Treasury's move earlier this year to increase a levy on the 油 &天然气工业称其为“机会袭击”。 在北海最近的好消息的支持下 –他们在一份报告中说,£宣布的20亿加息可能削弱了投资者的信心。

The report notes: "If the (UK) government is serious about maximising production 从 the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS), it needs to consider the long-term impact of changes to the tax regime on investment. The evidence on the impact of 2006 increase in the supplementary tax charge on 油 and gas production in the North Sea is inconclusive, but there is a clear need to sustain investor confidence by avoiding surprises, such as the further increase announced in the 2011 Budget. It is not sensible to make opportunistic raids on UKCS producers." Powerful stuff – well delivered!

Finally, in Thursday intraday trading the 原油 油 price registered a strong rebound of 过度 2%, accompanied by a rally in the equity markets following the positive vibes 从 the European leaders’ summit 过度night where an agreement to raise the European rescue fund to €最终达到1万亿美元。

苏克敦金融 research expects further gains in 原油 油 prices, as the market seems relieved after the European Summit. The stronger euro provides further support, while most commodity prices enjoying a strong rally. WTI 原油 油 has further upside potential toward US$95/$96 per barrel, while 布伦特 油 might find modest resistance near the US$115 per barrel area, Sucden analysts note further.

©Gaurav Sharma2011。图:公司财务基础架构M&交易2008-2011年(年初至今)©基础设施杂志,2011年10月10日。照片:壳牌加油站 © Royal Dutch 贝壳

2011年10月4日,星期二

Sucden to Soc Gen:两周’s 原油 chatter

The last two weeks have been tumultuous for the 油 market to say the least. This morning, the 冰 布伦特 原油 forward month futures price successfully resisted the US$100 level, while WTI’长期以来,其对80美元的阻力一直在崩溃。 Obviously, the price of 原油 cannot divorce itself 从 the global macroeconomic picture which looks pretty grim as it stands, with equity markets plummeting to fresh new lows.

空头情绪 will persist as long as there is uncertainty or rather the "希腊悲剧" is playing in the Eurozone. Additionally, there is a lack of consensus about 希腊 among EU ministers and their next meeting -预定10月13日-已被取消,即使试图减轻对希腊违约的担忧也已取消’尚未在纸上发生。

苏克敦金融研究 ’s 默托·索科指出,在欧元区疲软的经济状况和全球股市疲软之后,能源市场承受了相当大的压力。

“美元走强进一步给市场带来压力,而投资者仍保持谨慎态度,并被提示进行获利了结以锁定近期涨幅。我们知道,由于欧元区的形势令人生畏,目前市场上存在着太多的不确定性和紧张的交易,“准备爆炸”. So, we expect 原油 油 prices to remain on a downside momentum for the short-term, with WTI 原油 油 retesting the US$70-$75 range, while 布伦特 consolidating around the US$98-$100 per barrel,” Sokou adds.

Many in the City opine that some commodities are currently trading below long term total costs, with 原油 油 being among them. However, in the short-run, operating costs (the short run marginal costs) are more important because they determine when producers might cut supply. Analysts 在 法国兴业银行 believe costs should not restrict prices 从 dropping, complementing their current bearish view on the cyclical commodities.

In a note to clients on Sep 29th, they noted that the highest costs of production are associated with the Canadian 油 sands projects, which remain the most expensive source of significant new supply in the medium to long term (US$90 represents the full-cycle production costs).

“However global 油 supply is also influenced by political factors. It should also be noted that while key Middle East countries have very low long term production costs, social costs also need to be added to these costs. These costs, in total, influence production decisions; consequently, this may cause 欧佩克 countries cutting production first when, in fact textbook economics says they should be the last to do so,” they noted further.

此外,作为 油腻的 observed in 七月 –引用Jadwa投资报告–兴业银行和其他市场普遍接受的观点是,沙特阿拉伯需要90至100美元的价格才能满足其国家预算;现在尤其如此,因为今年早些时候制定了庞大的支出计划,以防止和应对阿拉伯之春的爆发而引起公众的不满。

Therefore, in a declining market, 法国兴业银行 expects long-dated 原油 prices to show resilience around that level but prices are still significantly higher than the short-run marginal costs so their analysts see room for further declines.

Concurrently, in its 九月 monthly 油 market report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its forecast for global 油 demand by 200,000 桶 per day (bpd) to 89.3 million bpd in 2011, and by 400,000 bpd to 90.7 million bpd in 2012. Factoring in the current macroeconomic malaise and its impact on demand as we’从2011年最后一个季度开始,Oilholic不需要一个水晶球就可以确定,IOC在2012年上半年将处于波涛汹涌的水域,其收益增速低于预期。

In fact ratings agency 穆迪 ’s changed its outlook for the integrated 油 &天然气行业在上周宣布从积极转为稳定。弗朗索瓦·劳拉斯(Francois Lauras),副总裁& Senior Credit Officer - Corporate Finance Group 在 穆迪 ’s feels that the weakening global macroeconomic conditions will lead to slower growth in 油 consumption and an easing in current market tightness 过度 the coming quarters, as 利比亚生产 gradually comes back onto the market.

石油狂热者特别想强调劳拉斯先生’后者关于利比亚的断言,并且他并不孤单地认为2012年该行业的收入增长可能会放缓。’s指出,随着原油价格的回落和炼油利润的压力持续存在以及下游活动的放缓,盈余几乎不可避免。这使那些反对集成模型的人的意见可信。毕竟,一般而言,国际奥委会不太可能享受降价的机会,但其中包括整合的和&M个玩家可能会喜欢目前对欧元区的不受欢迎的放映“Greek tragedy” the least.

©Gaurav Sharma2011。照片:阿拉斯加管道,布鲁克斯山脉,美国 ©迈克尔·S·昆顿/国家地理

2011年9月19日,星期一

希腊不是’t hitting 原油 on a standalone basis

现在,最近一段时间我们又来过这里多少次,又有一个星期开始,关于欧元区蔓延和希腊对黑金价格构成压力的市场chat声开始了?坦率地说,现在变得非常痛苦– the chatter that is! The linkage between the abysmal state of affairs in 希腊 and lower 原油 prices is neither simple nor linear and a tad 过度blown 从 a global standpoint.

由于宏观因素的积累,出现了看跌趋势。对美国经济状况的担忧应该导致并实际上导致了看跌的方式,而不是希腊。尽管如此,自希腊以来’一段时间以来,经济困境已成为欧元区广泛问题的典型代表,对欧元区经济的担忧从未抑制周一的盘中交易。

苏克敦金融研究 ’s 默托·索科 notes that 原油 油 prices have started the week on a negative side, as weaker global equity markets and persistent concerns about Greek debt crisis weighed heavily on market sentiment and prompted investors to lock in recent profits. WTI 原油 油 slid lower 1% toward US$87 per barrel, while 布伦特 油 contract retreated to retest the US$111 per barrel area.

简而言之,欧洲领导人’决定将希腊的付款和EFSF扩张决定推迟到10月,这打击了大西洋沿岸的期货交易。此外,在本周缺乏主要经济指标的情况下,Sokou指出,投资者现在将关注可能为能源市场提供一些指导的货币走势。无论如何,在周三结束的为期两天的美国联邦公开市场委员会会议之前,投资者要保持谨慎。

这周是在 法国兴业银行’上周发表的研究 which suggested a meaningful slide in 油 prices should begin in the next 30-45 days. It is worth rewinding to last Christmas when a stunted recovery was taking hold and people were forecasting 油 prices in the circa of US$120 per barrel for 2012. 这里’s 从2010年12月开始向客户提供JP Morgan研究报告的示例。这并不是说120美元的价格无法实现–但最后六个星期‘over’听(或不听)希腊人’问题,美国经济停滞甚至亚洲市场的消费预测下降,大多数分析师将2012年的预测平均下调了近10美元/桶。

欧佩克秘书长阿卜杜拉·塞勒姆·巴德里肯定认为’一个没有其他的经济困境– not just 希腊! Speaking 在 a forum, el-Badri noted that global demand for 油 was seen rising 在 a level which was below expectations. He 在tributed this to fiscal woes in Europe (sigh!), high unemployment in the US and possible Chinese government action to prevent 过度heating of their economy.

巴德里, a 利比亚n himself, also expressed hope that 利比亚生产 would rise by 500,000 to 600,000 桶 per day (bpd) sometime in the near future. Club all bearish sentiments together, and even the 欧佩克 secretary general is surprised that there has not been an even greater price correction in the 原油 markets.

放弃定价,过去几天有两个值得注意的公司故事来自美国和福克兰群岛。 9月12日,法国工程公司Technip宣布有意收购总部位于美国的海底公司Global Industries Ltd. 100%的股份,总交易价值为现金10.73亿美元,其中包括约1.36亿美元的净债务。

The deal is slated for completion 过度 Q1 2012. Elsewhere, British company 石hopper Exploration, which is searching for 原油 stuff off the coast of 福克兰群岛 said on 九月 15 that it has made further significant finds.

It now expects to start pumping 油 by 2016 and would need US$2.1 billion to develop its 海狮 prospect. Company estimates are for 350 million 桶 of recoverable reserves and production peak of 120,000 bpd is expected in 2018. Given the figure, smart money is on 石hopper either partnering with another company or being taken 过度 by a major. While 石hopper continues to surprise, that the Argentines are moaning is hardly a surprise.

The 福克兰群岛 have always be a bone of contention between Argentina and UK who went to war 过度 the Islands in 1982 after the former invaded. UK forces wrested back control of the islands, held by it since 1833, after a week long war that killed 649 Argentine and 255 British service personnel according to UK archives.

The prospect of 油 in the region has renewed diplomatic spats with the Argentines complaining to the UN and launching fresh claims of sovereignty. Since, most Falkland islanders want to retain British sovereignty –英国首相戴维·卡梅伦(David Cameron)宣布了这一问题“non-negotiable”,而阿根廷已宣布他为“arrogant”. It is 在 present, 正如石油狂人去年指出的, nothing more than a bit of diplomatic argy-bargy with an 油y dimension and is highly likely to stay there.

Finally, concluding on a much lighter note, the London Stock Exchange (LSE), a preferred destination for 油holics, energy majors and miners for their listings, has quite literally become a hive of activity. One is 可靠地 informed via its press office that the 伦敦证券交易所 has introduced 60,000 bees to their new home in hives situated on the roof of its City HQ 在 Paternoster Square (见左图).

繁忙的蜜蜂的引入旨在鼓励英国城市蜜蜂的数量增长。该计划是与屡获殊荣的英国社会企业-黄金公司(Golden Company)合作进行的,该公司与年轻人合作​​,发展可行的企业,生产,销售和销售蜂蜜和蜂蜜基天然化妆品。

伦敦证券交易所集团首席执行官Xavier Rolet将这一举动描述为社区和企业合作的完美典范。黄金公司董事Ilka Weissbrod说屋顶上的蜜蜂将由他们照料‘Bee Guardians’与LSE员工一起,每个人都期待着蜜蜂在新家安顿下来。听起来很好玩!

©Gaurav Sharma2011。照片1:Pump Jacks Perryton,德克萨斯州,美国©Joel Sartore /国家地理。图2:伦敦证券交易所上的蜜蜂©LSE新闻办公室,2011年9月。

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