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2014年11月27日,星期四

Internal wrangles see 欧佩克 quota left 在 30mbpd

一些人希望削减生产配额;其他人没有’t and in 的 end it all bottled down to what 的 Saudis wanted – a rollover of 的 level set 在 30 million barrels per day (bpd) since 十二月 2011. So as 的 166th meeting of 欧佩克 ministers 结束后,Al-Naimi离开了Helferstorferstrasse 17-欧佩克在奥地利维也纳的总部如愿以偿。

Had a cut been enforced and 的 Saudis not respected 的 agreement, it would have been meaningless. So 的 announcement did not come as much of surprise to many analysts, yours truly including.

For a spot report, you are welcome to read 的 油腻的’s take on 福布斯 and 的 ‘长久的’秘书长阿卜杜拉·塞勒姆·巴德里 ’s jovial press conference explaining why 的 cartel acted as it did in 的 interests of “市场均衡与全球福祉”.

欧佩克相当平静地建议,它将像往常一样在六月举行下一次会议,并延长巴德里’s term until 十二月 2015. But 的 油腻的 suspects a US$60 per barrel floor would be tested sooner than most expect. Will an extraordinary meeting be called 的n? Will 欧佩克 let things be until it meets again 六月? What about Venezuela, Iran and Nigeria who will leave 维也纳 thoroughly dissatisfied?

It is indeed credible to assume that 欧佩克 will grin and bear 的 石油价格下跌 in 的 interest of holding on to its 30% share of 的 global 原油 markets for 的 moment. But for how long as not all are in agreement of 的 decision taken today?

Barely minutes after El-Badri stopped speaking, Brent shed a dollar. Within 的 hour it was trading below $73 a barrel while 的 WTI slid below $70. We’re now formally in 的 territory where it becomes a game of nerves. For 的 moment, none of 的 major oil producing nations, both within and outside 欧佩克, are willing to cut production even when demand for oil isn’t that great.

Should bearish trends continue, will someone blink first? Will finances dictate a production decline for someone? Will some or more of 的 producers come together and take coordinated action with 欧佩克?
These are 的 million barrel questions!

The latter option was 在 tempted in 维也纳 bringing 的 Russians and Mexicans to 的 table, but 的 沙特人确保它没有成功. The next four months ought to be interesting. On that note, it's good night from 欧佩克 HQ. Analysis and a post mortem to follow over 的 coming days, but that’s all for 的 moment folks! Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’! 

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© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2014. Photo: Abdalla Salem El-Badri speaks 在 的 166th 欧佩克 Ministers’在奥地利维也纳开会©Gaurav Sharma,2014年11月27日

2013年5月30日,星期四

页岩& 的 163rd 欧佩克 ministers’ summit

The 油腻的 has exchanged 的 blustery wind and rain in London for 的 blustery wind and rain in 维也纳 ahead of 163rd 欧佩克 meeting of ministers here on 可能 31, which half 的 world’的媒体和能源分析社区已经将其称为‘non-event’. The other half are about to! Industry commentators here and beyond think 的 12 member group is going to hold its current production quota 在 just above 30 million barrels per day (bpd).
 
Even before yours truly boarded 的 flight from London Heathrow, a Rotterdam based contact in 的 现货交易 world suggested one needn’t have bothered with 的 market having already factored-in an “as you were” stance by 欧佩克. This is borne out in further anecdotal evidence; 的 futures market on leading benchmarks has been bearish in 的 past 48 hours (not solely down to 欧佩克).
 
Accompanying overtones describing 的 meeting as a 非事件 is 的 sentiment that 欧佩克 is being haunted by North 美国’s shale revolution. As if with perfect timing, 的 US EIA announced on Thursday that 的 country's 原油-oil supplies rose 3 million barrels for 的 week ended 可能 24, to 397.6 million barrels; 的 highest level on record since it began collecting data in 1978.
 
上个星期, 的 International Energy Agency (IEA) added its take on North 美国n production scenarios by suggesting that demand for 欧佩克's oil is expected to plummet as production from 的 US (and Canada) increases by a fifth to 11.9 million bpd by 2018, compared with this year.
 
Additionally, Iraqi production is returning to health. So to put things into context, by 2020 的 IEA expects Iraq's oil output to more than double to 6.1 million bpd and were this to happen, 欧佩克’s unofficial production could rise well above 36 million bpd. As a knee-jerk reaction, 的 cartel – according to 的 agency – would have to withhold up to 2.3 million bpd from 的 market by 2015 (with its spare capacity rising well above 7 million bpd).
 
Given all of this, you might be excused for thinking 的 global 原油 market was facing a supply glut and everything was gloomy from 欧佩克’s standpoint. Yet, 的 price of oil – Brent or 欧佩克’自己的一篮子原油–仍高于每桶100美元。那’正是OPEC中大多数人希望达到的目标。
 
Arriving a day (or two) ahead of 的 meeting, 7 out of 12 欧佩克 ministers have told various media outlets that a US$100 price was acceptable, where it needs to be and “necessary” for investment.  These include senior government officials from Angola, Ecuador, Iraq, Kuwait, 沙特阿拉伯, UAE and Venezuela. A US$100 floor price is a uniting 的me it seems and most have sounded intent on holding 的 current official production quota!
 
推测是只要维持地板,卡特尔’将减少产量。实际上,欧佩克的主力军和沙特阿拉伯’自5月28日以来一直在维也纳的石油部长纳利(Ali al-Naimi)说,现有条件 代表着面对经济逆风的市场的最佳环境,并且“demand is great.”尽管文士,博客作者,电讯员和分析师集体做出了最大的努力,但伊朗和委内瑞拉都一直在努力削减价格以提振价格,但在过去的24小时中他们都没有发表太多意见。
 
相比之下,欧佩克伊拉克石油部长阿卜杜勒·卡里姆·路易比’第二大生产商说,“There is balance between demand and supply, and this is reflected on prices, 的y are stable. We don’t want any shock to 的 market, 的 stability of prices is important for 的 global economy.”
 
The 油腻的 thinks 的 cartel will maintain status quo until 的 floor dips to US$80 per barrel, if it does. However, 的 unity will disappear 的 moment 的 oil price dips below US$99 with Venezuela and Iran being among 的 first to start clamouring for another production quota cut.
 
This brings us back to 的 hullabaloo about North 美国n shale (and unconventional E&P) versus 欧佩克! The right wing commentators and 的 US media plus politicians of all stripes –有些人会轻易忘记加拿大’s part in 的 North 美国n energy spectrum – make it sound as if 欧佩克, which still accounts for just over 40% of 的 world’的原油市场,将在一夜之间变得无关紧要。
 
IEA, as 的 油腻的 noted a few weeks ago, described it as nothing short of a paradigm shift in 的 context of 的 oil market, although in not 的se exact words. Then 的re is 的 dilemma of 欧佩克 ministers – who are damned if 的y do and damned if 的y don’t. If an 欧佩克 minister acknowledges 的 impact of North 美国n shale, he is described in 的 media as one who is resigned to 的 cartel’s decline. Conversely, if an 欧佩克 minister dismisses it, 的 rebuttal is that he’之所以这样做,是因为他’s scared!
 
他说,这是今天下午的一个例子,当时伊拉克部长阿尔·路易比被要求发表评论,“美国页岩油产量增加– although it has some impact, it's not a significant impact on oil production or exports, and as you all might notice 欧佩克 countries are all producing more oil than 的 agreed quota ceiling.”

现在,您可以自己进行有关如何在美国国内报道报价的研究,而不是像Oilholic那样做?它将证明前一段中表达的观点。您的确不是在轻视页岩气革命的国度–但是,如何在中期以上维持目前的增产水平仍是常识。因此,值得对此感到兴奋但又不要太兴奋!此外,在这场辩论中需要一点实用主义– one which the Oilholic saw in a brilliant article in 的 FT by Ajay Makan.
 
In 的 column, Makan notes how within 欧佩克 的re is divide between 的 relatively comfortable Gulf producers (for e.g. 沙特阿拉伯) and 的 rest (most notably Iran, Venezuela and African members). The Saudis have welcomed 的 impact of shale as 的y can afford 的 price falling below US$100 level but some of 的ir peers in 欧佩克 can’t. For some more than 的 others, “估算是不可避免的,尤其是在需求增长放缓的情况下, ” writes Makan.
 
Then again, beyond supply scenarios, it is worth asking whose shale bonanza is it anyway? First and foremost it is, and as 的 油腻的 was discussing with 菲尔·弗林 of Price Futures a couple of months ago, price positive for 美国n consumers, followed by 液化天然气 importing Asian jurisdictions. While Indian and Chinese policymakers are hardly jumping for joy and will for 的 foreseeable future continue to rely on 欧佩克 members (and Russia) for majority of 的ir 原油 cravings, some in 的 US are already fretting about what US exports would mean for domestic prices!
 
一群– 美国’s Energy Advantage – backed by several prominent US industrial brands including Alcoa, Huntsman chemicals and Dow Chemical, has claimed that "exporting proceeds of shale (to be read 液化天然气) carries with it 的 potential threat of damaging jobs and investment in 的 US manufacturing sector as rising exports will drive up 的 price of gas to 的 detriment of domestic industries."
 
布恩·皮肯斯,在光彩夺目的riposte中, asked can 的 US do what it 已经 criticising 欧佩克 for since 的 cartel's inception and 限制出口? The inimitable industry veteran has a point! That's all for 的 moment from 维也纳 folks! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!
 
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© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2013. OPEC 奥地利维也纳总部外部的徽标 © 高拉夫·夏尔马.

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