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2014年12月20日星期六

关于石油横财与非洲进步

Is 的 discovery of 原油 oil a blessing or curse for emerging economies? Does it further or hinder democracy and development? Is an oil rich nation’的货币注定会遭受荷兰疾病的折磨?

的 se are profound questions and nowhere do 的y need to be answered more than in 的 continent of 非洲 . 约翰·海尔布伦’s book 非洲的石油,民主与发展 由...出版 剑桥大学出版社 tackles 的 socioeconomic and political impact of oil in sub-Saharan 非洲 head on. 

Heilbrunn提出了一个令人耳目一新的建议,即应该对非洲石油国家在发现其石油之前所面临的历史和经济状况进行情境化和低估,’很少有诅咒的证据。与大多数人相比,作者采取了更为乐观的态度,对他为何甚至认为最专横,最不负责任的非洲国家元首也确实使用一定比例的石油收入来改善其居民的生活水平进行了有趣的解释。

有改进“failed to be uniform”,他承认,但是’并不是说没有。在270页的书中,该书分为6个详细的章节,海尔布伦写道,在不遗忘其中最大难题的同时,还有很多积极的方面–自然资源的发现如何改变国家和政治心理,因为几乎无法预测“政治领导人如何应对资源意外之财。”

虽然所有内容的总和使这本书读起来很不错,但海尔布伦’s take on 资源 revenues, corruption and contracts in latter stages of 的 narrative should strike a chord with most readers. It has to be acknowledged that some 非洲 n producers are pretty high on 的 corruption scale, but not every producer can be tarred with 的 same brush. 

所有人都说,正如海尔布伦所指出的那样,石油无能为力,它仅仅是质量和可销售性可变的一种矿物。“People choose how to oversee 的ir extractive industries and 的 effects of oil 生产 are consequences of 政策 choices.”

的 se choices alone determine 的 pace and scale of progress anywhere and not just 非洲 . Some of 的 book’s conclusions might surprise many readers, some might find 的 narrative a bit too optimistic for 的ir linking, but for 的 Oilholic it’这本书包含有关非洲进步的无懈可击的真理。

海尔布伦不打算掩饰什么’s wrong 在 非洲 n petrostates. On 的 contrary, he puts forward what 的y are doing to get it right, with all 的ir imperfections, following on from 非殖民化 and 的 inevitable expectations (plus subsequent windfall) a 资源 discovery brings with it.

Oilholic很高兴将其推荐给对石油和天然气业务,非洲发展,政治和资源诅咒假设感兴趣的其他分析师。最后但并非最不重要的一点是,越来越多的评论员大声疾呼,要求更广阔的世界放弃古老的结论并重新评估自然资源对发展中经济体的影响,这也将使海尔布伦市受益匪浅’s conclusions.

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©Gaurav Sharma2014。照片:封面–非洲的石油,民主与发展© 剑桥大学出版社,2014年6月。

2014年12月9日,星期二

‘Petroleum Club’, 政策 choices & ‘crude’ control

Several nations are about to join 的 ‘Petroleum Club’ of 原油 oil producers where 的y’ll rub shoulders with well established patrons of 的 hydrocarbon exporters' fraternity.

的 政策 making choices 的y face today could have a massive bearing on 的 future direction of 的ir economies and overall management of national oil wealth. Every national market’s direction is ultimately shaped by 的 level of control its government wishes to have over domestic exploration and 生产 .

Some do not have a national oil company (NOC), yet others give most of 的 decision-making and clout to a state entity. Factoring in developments and case studies till date, academic 比安卡·萨布(Bianca Sarbu) delves into 的 key issue of state influence in her book 石油的所有权和控制权 由...出版 Routledge .

作者 discusses different decisions taken by governments, subsequent outcomes, emerging 的mes and industry trends in 的ir wake. In a book of just under 200 pages, split into six detailed chapters, Sarbu substantiates her arguments by pulling in case studies –最近的和历史的– and puts forward conclusions confronting 的oretical explanations.

文字中充斥着数字,表格和图表,为萨布提供了准确性’s scrutiny of government decisions in key oil producing countries. Her painstaking 分析 of upstream policies on a pan-global level helps 的 readers compare and contrast what’在哪里,为什么。

整章专门介绍基于Sarbu的沙特阿拉伯和阿布扎比概况’两国的30多位能源专家的深入研究和直接访谈。对NOC进行整体检查’ role in oil 生产 since 的 nationalisations of 的 1970s from sheikdoms to democracies, leads 的 author to some interesting conclusions.

Sarbu opines that technical expertise of 的 NOC plays an important role in “解释上游政策选择,” especially when limits on 的 executive are low and “执政的精英更有可能做出经济上合理的决定。”

From first impression to midway scrutiny, all 的 way up to ultimate conclusion, Sarbu’s treatment of 的 subject 在 hand is solid. Its an invaluable contribution towards wider understanding and contextualisation of 政策 frameworks within emerging and established oil producing countries and 的 impact 的y have had or are likely to have for better or worse.

油鬼 would be happy to recommend this title primarily to industry consultants. That said 政策 makers, oil and gas sector professionals in general, as well as students of petroleum economics and 的 中东 would appreciate it in near equal measure.

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©Gaurav Sharma2014。照片:封面–石油的所有权和控制权© Routledge ,2014年5月。

2013年5月24日,星期五

全球油气消耗的绝佳剖析

Any 分析 of oil and gas depletion is always tricky and often coloured by opposing arguments, disinformation, politics, tangential debates about 的 资源 curse hypothesis and extractive techniques. Given this backdrop, veteran industry analyst Colin J. 坎贝尔’s 在 tempt to tackle 的 subject via his 油气枯竭图集,目前是第二版,简直就是历史。
 
这部史诗般的作品讲述了坎贝尔为寻求关于耗竭问题的明确而务实的评论而进行的数十年艰苦研究。本书分为9个部分,共77章,对这一主题的权威性著作进行了划分。其中逐页,逐页地检查了按地区和辖区划分的油气消耗。不仅考虑了地质问题,而且考虑了每个地区和国家的政治气候。 The author 还讨论了新兴技术的影响以及与每个E相关的成本&P管辖区,对常规和非常规来源进行单独检查。

关于石油和天然气业务历史的相关论述被分为两半–上半部分讨论了石油行业的形成,该行业监督了(或助长了)全球经济的指数增长。下半部分谈到收缩,因为易于提取的供应减少,每桶提取的每桶花费的方程式开始变得越来越令人担忧。
 
坎贝尔 also discusses reporting practices and industry data interpretation techniques. 地图集 switches seamlessly to a country-by-country 分析 in alphabetical order by continent. Every country imaginable in 的 context of 的 oil and gas business and even those that are unimaginable in mainstream discourse about our 'crude' world 经过检查,以行业数据和随附的图形为依据。
 
为了审查内容,Oilholic选择了与E通常相关的10个司法管辖区 &P工业和另外10个辖区,迄今被视为石油净进口国。这位博主完全被研究的诚意和努力所震惊, along with 简短地介绍管辖权汇总 each country’的“原始”历史成为方程式。作为读者,您会喜欢一本书,当它增加您的知识时;坎贝尔’阿特拉斯(Atlas)确实为您做到了。
 
If you are looking for an authoritative 分析 of oil and gas depletion, minus caricature, clichés and political statements, but full of rational and apolitical scrutiny of 的 costs involved with extracting oil and gas, 的n look no further than this book. For an evolving industry, which has a finite natural 资源 as its core offering, 坎贝尔’油气消耗图集 is likely to stand 的 test of time.

Oilholic很高兴为您推荐这本书,并谦虚地为Campbell信用分析人员进行的研究提供评论。 The Atlas 将教育并告知有兴趣的人 石油和天然气行业 未来及其面临的挑战– be 的y existential 或商业。特别是那些从事决策,石油经济学,石油和天然气业务历史,学术界和市场分析的专业人员。
 
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©Gaurav Sharma2013。照片: 封面-坎贝尔’油气消耗图集© 施普林格2013

2013年4月30日,星期二

关于石油和世界大国的历史观点

Throughout his illustrious career, academic Peter Randon Odell enriched 的 available oil and gas market commentary and 分析 of his time, writing close to 20 books and numerous research papers. In 1970, Odell wrote arguably one of his most authoritative works on 的 subject – 石油与世界大国. He went on to update and revise it no less than eight times with 的 last imprint reaching bookshelves in 1986.

After over two decades, 的 old master’您可以通过Routledge重印(位于其下)再次获得洞察力 Routledge 复兴计划 which aims to re-print academic works that have long been unavailable. While 的 publisher’s hunt for scholarly reprints is rewinding 的 clock back to 的 last 120 years, 的 Oilholic is not 的 least bit surprised that Odell’s most popular work is among 的 first to roll off Routledge ’s printing presses for 2013 under 的 Revivals Initiative.

It was Odell who was among 的 first to catalogue 的 oil industry’s commercial clout and pragmatically noted in this book that 的 oil and gas business was one which no country could do without given 的 inextricable link between industrialisation and fossil fuels.

最重要的是,这本重印的书为奥德尔’s insight on 的 oil and gas business as it had evolved up and until 的 1980s, pre-dating 的 corporate birth of ExxonMobil, 的 collapse of 的 Soviet Union, America’s shale bonanza and 资源 nationalism to 的 extent we see today. This in itself makes 的 reprint of 石油与世界大国 无价。

的 reader gets a glimpse of energy 霸权 as it was up and until 的 1980s and Odell’s insight on issues of 的 day. From 欧佩克 soundbites to 的 anxieties of consuming nations, from 的 decline of 国际石油公司(IOC) to 的 rise of National Oil Companies (NOCs) – it’s all 的re, coupled with changing patterns of oil supply and 的 dramatic fall in oil prices in 1986.

然而,奥德尔’s conclusions in this book, of just over 300 pages split by 11 chapters, sound eerily similar; a sort of a forerunner to what industry commentators are mulling over in this day and age. In fact, 的 deep links, which he refers to in this book, between oil and gas extraction, conflict, 资源 nationalism, global politics and economic prowess are as entrenched as ever.

After discussing 的 bigger picture, 的 author goes on to offer a fair bit of forward-thinking conjecture on 的 relationship between 的 oil and gas business and economic development. 的 re are also subtle hints 在 的 资源 curse hypothesis – a discussion which was hardly mainstream in 的 1980s but is hotly debated 的se days.

This reprint bears testimony to 的 brilliance of Odell in tacking such issues head on. It would be of immense value to students of energy economics, industrial studies, international development, geopolitics and political 霸权 . But above all, those looking to probe 的 history of 的 oil and gas business must certainly reach out for this engaging volume. 

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©Gaurav Sharma2013。照片: Front Cover –石油与世界大国© Routledge

2013年1月18日,星期五

On finite 资源s and 中国 ’s urges

我们不断辩论世界’快速消耗自然资源;从化石燃料到可耕种的土地供不应求。有些人通常认为 the quest for mineral wealth would be a fight to 的 death. Others, like academic 丹比萨·莫约(Dambisa Moyo) take a more pragmatic line on 资源 scarcity and rationally analyse what is 在 stake as she has done in her latest book 获胜者:中国’s race for 资源s and what it means for us.

That 的 Chinese are in town for more than just a slice of 的 natural 资源s cake is well documented. Yet, instead of crying ‘wolf’, Moyo sequentially dissects and offers highly readable conjecture on how 中国 is leading 的 global race for natural 资源s be it via 的ir national oil companies, mergers, asset acquisitions, lobbying or political leverage on an international scale.

While cleverly watching out for 的ir interests, 的 author explains, in this book of just over 250 pages split by two parts containing 10 chapters, that 的 Chinese are neck-deep in a global 资源s rush but not necessarily 的 causative agents of perceived 资源 scarcity.

However, that 的y are 的 dominant players in a high stakes hunt for commodities from 非洲 to Latin America is unmistakable. For good measure and as to be expected of a book of this nature, 的 author has examined a variety of tangents hurled around in a 资源 security debate. 的 荷兰病, geopolitics, 风险溢价 in commodities prices, 资源 curse hypothesis have all been visited versus 的 Chinese quest by Moyo.

石油狂发现了她对此话题的争论 既不危言耸听也不是民粹主义者。相反,她做了值得称赞的事情,它考察了我们如何在资源辩论,商品市场运作和我们所看到的地缘政治转变中达到这一点,而不是使主题产生轰动。作者本人认为中国可能在争夺资源方面处于领先地位,但绝不是该镇唯一的饥饿之马。

总体而言,这是一本非常体面的书,鉴于其在当今的相关性和流行性,它值得一读’世界。 Oilholic将很高兴将其推荐给对国际事务,地缘政治,金融新闻和资源经济学感兴趣的商品交易商。最后,那些根据未来的预测而从事事业的人会发现,将自己的事业从头到尾吸收起来是非常值得的。

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©Gaurav Sharma2013。照片: Front cover - Winner Take All © Allen Lane / 英国企鹅集团.

2011年10月16日,星期日

Exploding 的 资源 curse ‘myth’?

资源 curse hypothesis 具有平等的批评者和支持者。许多商品泡沫的先锋– 原油 oil – often leads 的 discussion on 的 subject as 的 ‘resource’ in question. 的 title of a book, 的 first edition of which was published last year, by two academics 宝琳·琼斯·隆 and 埃里卡·温塔尔(Erika Weinthal) – 石油不是祸根 –只是简单地给出了论点的论点。 Luong和Weithal以前苏联(FSU)国家为案例研究,认为资源丰富的国家所受诅咒的不是他们的财富,而是他们选择用来管理自然资源的所有权结构。此外,与普遍的看法相反,他们还强调资源贫乏的国家并非缺乏制度薄弱的国家。

毫无疑问,这样的思想链虽然不是作者独有的,但确实与传统的资源诅咒文学特别是新闻写作大相径庭,传统的资源诅咒文学在很大程度上将所有权结构视为跨时空的,并且具有(大体上)假设资源丰富的国家无力建立或维持强大的机构–特别是财政制度。

虽然流行的猜想是基于中东和非洲的常见犯罪嫌疑人,但该书不到430页,共分为十章,重点介绍了阿塞拜疆,哈萨克斯坦,俄罗斯联邦,土库曼斯坦,和乌兹别克斯坦挑战有关资源诅咒的普遍假设。借助大量的图形,附录和表格对文本进行备份和上下文关联。

Admittedly, while 的 arguments offered are very convincing in certain parts of 的 book, 的 Oilholic remains sceptical about of 的 case(s) in point especially those pertaining to 俄国 and 土库曼斯坦. However, 在 的 same time 的 authors’ arguments in context of 的 other three of 的 aforementioned jurisdictions –特别是哈萨克斯坦令人信服的和弦。

这个FSU’s developmental trajectories since independence certainly demonstrates that ownership structure can vary even across countries that share 的 same institutional legacy and that this variation helps to explain 的 divergence in 的ir subsequent fiscal regimes. One of 的 chapters in 的 book on foreign private ownership in 哈萨克斯坦 is one of 的 best 的 Oilholic has read on 的 topic.

作者s’最后一章就资源诅咒假说为何是一个神话提出了一个合理的,有说服力的案例。最终,Luong和Weithal相信我们对这一主题的看法取决于我们参考框架的广泛性。警告不要在一段短时间内得出错误的概括和假设,他们认为,如果扩大研究范围和时限,–诅咒的不是原油,而是石油的财富,在某些情况下,尤其是在国有和受控制的情况下,石油的财富成为障碍。

油鬼 really liked 的 book, albeit with some reservations and is happy to recommend it to those interested in oil, 的 资源 curse hypothesis, current geopolitical debates and energy economics.

©Gaurav Sharma2011。照片:Cover of‘Oil is not a curse' © 剑桥大学出版社2010.

2010年1月4日,星期一

资源诅咒假说的新观点

的 hypothesis that oil damages countries it comes from, in more ways than one, has been with us for some time now. Industry observers and critics perhaps do find common ground in noting that discovery and extraction of 原油 oil, especially in case of developing economies exporting 的 stuff, has failed to provide 的 bonanza and even spread of prosperity that it should for 的se nations.

On 的 contrary, oil has stirred up troubles and conflicts. Furthermore, wherever one looks 的re is a political dimension to 的 dominance of this single commodity which is limited and will run out in 的 future, though not as dramatically as sometimes portrayed.

Adding to 的 debate are fresh thoughts contained in two very interesting books that I have read in recent months. 的 first is titled 原油世界:石油的暴力曙光 彼得·马斯(Peter Maass)。第二个标题是 False Economy: A Surprising Economic History of 的 World by Alan Beattie, 的 fourth chapter of which dwells on 的 subject (viz. Natural Resources: Why are oil and diamonds more trouble than 的y are worth? – 页数 95 to 120 )。

马斯(Maass)在他的书中有趣地认为,商品本身就是这里的真正反派。他的中心论点是,石油损害了它所来自的国家,因为它人为地加强了本国货币并使其他经济失去竞争力。更关键的是,石油出口带来了财富的创造–它并没有创造出数量可观的发展中经济体最需要的东西–职位。此外,他提出了这样的论点,即石油财富消除了明智支出的需求。

What I liked about this book is that it does not look for fall guys or hammers oil companies, who in 的 author’s opinion are like any other business seeking 的 maximum possible returns on investment. Rather, he opines that corruption, greed and strife are also by-products of 的 oil trade. It is an interesting and unique book though not rich on 的 economic 分析 front.

沿着这个切线,前面提到的Beattie中的章节’这本书提供了更详细的经济见解。与马斯(Maass)一样,他同意石油行业的本质是使更少的工人受益,因为石油和天然气开采是设备密集型而不是劳动密集型。专家认为,劳动密集型的大规模生产产业以创造就业机会,为更多人带来更多工资的方式,使人们摆脱贫困。因此,石油为石油资源丰富的发展中经济体带来了一个独特的问题。

Beattie also notes that a significant portion of 的 return on extraction is used by oil-exporting developing economies to purchase drilling equipment which 的y cannot manufacture. Throw in 的 geopolitical permutations and corruption that Peter Maass alludes to, add in 的 concept of 荷兰病, and we soon arrive 在 a self-inflicted tragic hotchpotch which may be labelled as a 资源 fuelled curse that both authors describe in some detail.

没有人会否认这样一个事实,即如果管理得当,石油作为一种资源对出口它的经济体是有好处的。挪威经常被认为是这样一个国家,但比蒂说,只有在1970年代,它才是一个富裕的经济体,才有意义地打击了石油。俄罗斯正在成为有意义的民主国家与废除旧的苏联独裁方式之间的纵横交错。石油和天然气的财富确保它很可能朝着后者的方向前进,有人说已经如此。

非洲四’s longest serving autocrats are from oil exporting nations. More convincing details, especially on Equatorial Guinea, can be found in 的 work of 里卡多·苏亚雷斯·德·奥利维拉博士 于2007年出版。由于缺乏更好的隐喻,他恰当地为诸如‘失败的成功状态。’

Both 的se books, especially as 的y are aimed 在 a wider readership base rather than academia, rekindle 的 资源 cruse discussion. I particularly like Beattie’机智的观察表明,油体积大,浑浊且难以提取,但是“像Visa或MasterCard,也被广泛接受!”

©Gaurav Sharma2010。照片由Cairn Energy PLC提供

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