欧佩克’的剩余容量和一些公司讽刺

Oil benchmarks have by 和 large remained calm in 的 face of escalating tensions in 伊拉克. Market sentiment was helped in no small parts by 的 我们 importing less 原油 和 伊斯兰国 being kept 在 bay from 伊拉克i oilfields. Nonetheless, what does 的 current situation mean for 欧佩克's spare capacity, concerns over which have marginally eased as non-OPEC production is seen rising.

Over 的 first quarter of this year, 欧佩克's spare capacity was in 的 region on 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd), bulk of which – 1.75 million bpd – is in 的 hands of 沙特阿拉伯.

SociétéGénéraleCIB分析师Patrick Legland和Daniel Fermon最近在给客户的说明中提出了一个非常重要的问题– so assuming that within 欧佩克, supply from 伊朗, 伊拉克, 和 利比亚 does not increase 和 Saudi spare capacity is not sufficient to offset a potential 伊拉克i crisis, what 的n? A scary prospect, especially if 伊拉克紧张局势 泄漏到南部油田。

SocGen's veteran analyst 迈克·威特纳 assigns only a 20% probability of 原油 oil exports from southern 伊拉克i oil fields (of 巴士拉) being disrupted. Current output is in 的 region of 2.5-2.6 million bpd or 3% of global production. In line with other city commentators 和 的 油腻的's own conjecture, Wittner says were 巴士拉 to be hit, 布伦特 could move up quickly into 的 我们 $120-125 range.

Let's hope it doesn't get hit, as Legland 和 Fermon note, in 的 past 50 years, 5 out of 7 recessions coincided with an oil shock, with oil prices skyrocketing. "However, to date, no one is expecting 的 oil price to rise to $150 or above; so concerns over an oil-led recession appear exaggerated," 的y add.

除了定价问题之外，还有几家公司从小盘开始说起话来。伦敦AiM报价 北非聚焦E&P firm 循环油 has largely kept 的 market on its side despite niggles it faces in Egypt along with other operators in 的 country. From where this blogger stands, Circe Oil's operations in Morocco 和 Tunisia remain promising 和 its receivables position in Egypt is in line with most (around 的 180 debtor day norm).

天达分析师布莱恩·加拉格尔（Brian Gallagher）重申了该行的买入评级。加拉格尔在给客户的说明中解释了他的决定，观察到Circle Oil“在2013年产生了超过5,000万美元的运营现金流，我们预计2014年将达到或超过该水平。这标志着Circle从许多小型公司E中脱颖而出。&努力为勘探活动提供资金的P个同龄人。 Circle正在进行两个影响操作。摩洛哥的勘探最近（成功地）开始了，而突尼斯EMD-1井的结果即将到来。在后台，埃及继续表现。”

The company is busy prospecting in Oman as well, even though it's early days. So methinks, 和 Gallagher thinks, 的re's a lot to look forward to. Switching tack to a couple of large caps, 惠誉评级 revised BG Energy's outlook to negative 在 A- 和 maintained BP's 在 A+/stable.

Starting with 的 former, 的 agency said BG's negative outlook reflects completion risks associated with its new upstream projects, challenges that 的 company is facing in Egypt, 和 的 potential that funds from operations (FFO) adjusted net leverage may stay above 2.5 times in 的 medium-term should 的re be any delays to project start-ups.

"Presently, we view 的 group's credit metrics as stretched for 的 current ratings because of BG's ambitious investments coinciding with declining production, despite a series of asset disposals intended to strengthen 的 group's balance sheet," Fitch noted, adding that it expects 的 company’s business profile to improve with 的 start-up of its major projects in Australia 和 Brazil.

On BP, Fitch views its operational profile as commensurate with 的 'AA' category. "Presently, BP's rating direction depends largely on 的 outcome of legal proceedings related to 的 2010 Macondo oil spill. At end 的 of 的 first quarter of 14, BP had provisioned $42.7 billion in total for claims 和 other related payments, of which it had paid out $34.9 billion."

Fitch says that total payments below $70 billion, including amounts already paid out 和 的 balance paid over a period of several years, are likely to keep BP in 的 'A' rating category, while payments exceeding this amount may push 的 company's ratings into 的 'BBB' category.

On a broader footing, Fitch has maintained a stable outlook for its rated EMEA oil 和 gas companies. Senior director Jeffrey Woodruff says negative outlooks on certain companies such as BG was mainly due to company specific problems rather than broad based sector weakness. "It is worth highlighting, that more than 80% of issuers in Fitch's EMEA oil 和 gas portfolio have stable outlooks 和 的 number of positive outlooks doubled since 2013 to 5% from 2.5%," he adds.

Finally, rounding 的 last four hectic weeks off, here is 的 油腻的's latest 文章 for 福布斯 touching on 的 recent jumpiness over 的 possibility of 我们 原油 oil exports. Yours truly does see a distinct possibility of it happening 在 some point in 的 future. However, it won’t happen any time soon 和 certainly not in an election year, with a race to 的 White House to follow.

Last month also saw this blogger head to Moscow for 的 第21届世界石油大会 和可预测的 165th 欧佩克 summit prior to that, where 的 organisation maintained its quota 和 阿卜杜拉·塞勒姆·埃尔·巴德里 stayed on as Secretary General. As usual 的re were TV soundbites aplenty - 的 油腻的's including - plus hustle, bustle, bluster 和 differences of opinion that go along with events of this nature. So for a change, one is glad this month's pace would be a shade slower. That's all for 的 moment folks. Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

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©Gaurav Sharma2014。照片1：俄罗斯的机油泵©卢克石油公司。图2：Gaurav Sharma在欧佩克网络广播上的讲话©欧佩克，2014年6月11日。

最后‘crude’来自21 WPC莫斯科的想法

The 第21届世界石油大会 came to a close last evening 在 的 mammoth 番红花博览会 Center in Moscow, 和 its almost sundown here 在 的 Red Square. A hectic five days gave plenty of food for thought 和 'crude' tangents for discussion.

如周二所述, 的 乌克兰 standoff failed to overshadow 的 event, as a veritable who's who of 的 oil & gas industry turned up regardless. Most movers 和 shakers, whether correctly, conveniently or cleverly, cited 的 premise that 的 国会 was a global event being hosted by Russia, 和 not a Russian event. So, in 的 eyes of most, 的re was no place for international politics. But it was certainly 的 place for industry intelligence gathering on an international scale.

If anything, it was 的 伊拉克事件 that cast a shadow over discussions rather than 乌克兰. And with a rather eerie coincidence, just as 的 国会 came to a close 星期四, 的 布伦特 front month futures price spiked to an intraday high of 我们 $115.71 per barrel. That's 的 highest on record since 九月 last year.

Most analysts here for 的 国会 noted that 的 speed with which 的 events are unfolding is most troubling 和 has serious implications for 的 oil price. For 的 present moment, 的 油腻的 is maintaining his price range prediction for 布伦特 in 的 range of $90-105 circa. Instead of rushing to judgement, given that 的 我们 need for Middle Eastern 原油 oil is narrowing, this blogger would like to monitor 的 situation for another few weeks before commenting on his price prediction.

与此同时， 伊朗在莫斯科生效 投放价值一千亿美元的石油& gas projects. Additionally, among 的 many views on where to turn for new hydrocarbon resources, 北极油& gas exploration seems to be all 的 rage here. Here is 的 油腻的's take in a 福布斯 文章.

Elsewhere, executives from 沙特阿美 to Shell stressed 的 need to reduce output costs. Or to cite one senior executive, "We're seeking to either equal or better costs incurred by 我们 unconventional plays." Drilling for oil has various permutations, but if natural gas is 的 objective, 的 target should be around $2 per thousand cubic feet, according to various 我们 commentators here.

油& gas industry as whole is likely to need financing of $1 trillion per annum over 的 next 20 years as unconventional plays become commonplace, 在 least that's 的 macro verdict. Speaking in Moscow, Peter Gaw, managing director of oil, gas 和 chemicals 在 渣打银行, said 的 banking sector could meet 的 demands despite a tough recovery run from 的 global financial crisis.

Anecdotal evidence here 和 wider empirical evidence from recent deals suggest private equity firms will continue to be players in 的 services business. But Gaw also saw hybrid finance deals involving hedge funds 和 pension funds on 的 cards.

安永石油全球负责人安迪·布罗根（Andy Brogan）& gas transactions, said 的 diversity of projects both in region 和 scope is evident. Asia Pacific 和 Latin 美国 should be 的 two regions on 的 radar as some financiers 在tempt to move beyond North 美国. Sounding cautiously optimistic, Brogan added that 的 post-crisis "appetite" is gradually returning.

A senior 我们 industry source also told 的 油腻的 that Bakken capex could top all industry estimates this year 和 might well be in 的 $20-25 billion range. Away from financing, a few other snippets, 的 印度代表团 左翼承诺就新的合理化税收制度，许可政策以及其高度政治化的补贴政策采取进一步行动。世界第四大能源消费国正在寻求刺激外国对其石油的投资&天然气部门。但是，为了促进这一点，印度的新 总理纳伦德拉·莫迪（Narendra Modi） 知道他必须动摇一切。

同时，已经在印度投资的BP签署了一份 与中海油价值200亿美元的液化天然气买卖协议，中国领先的液化天然气项目开发商。

While 的 rest of us were in Moscow, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang 和 British Prime Minister David Cameron were among onlookers as 的 deal for up to 1.5 million tonnes per annum of 液化天然气 starting from 2019 was being inked.

Lastly, it has to be said that over 的 first two days of 的 国会, 的 油腻的 nipped in 和 out of 8 forums, talks 和 presentations 和 one keynote. Not a single one passed without 'shale' being mentioned for better or for worse!

That brings yours truly to 的 final thoughts from Moscow 和 的re's more than one. Firstly, 的 国会 has widely acknowledged 的 我们 shale bonanza is now firmly beyond doubt. Secondly, 的 thought that 北极油& gas exploration is 的 next “最终边界” is getting firmly entrenched in 的 thinking of most here in Moscow.

Finally, Istanbul should be congratulated on being named 的 host city of 的 22nd World Petroleum 国会. By 的 time delegates arrive in town in 2017, 的 '卡纳尔·伊斯坦布尔' project should be well underway 和 的 fate of 的 world's second-busiest oil &输气动脉– 的 Bosphorus –可以成为一个很好的起点。

关于这一点，是时候说了 多斯·韦丹亚 to Russia 和 take 的 big flying bus home to London Heathrow! Here is a selection 的 油腻的's photos from 的 国会, which 已经 a memorable outing. It was an absolute pleasure visiting 的 Russian capital after a gap of 10 years, but sadly that's all from Moscow folks. Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

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© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2014. Photo 1: Red Square, Moscow, Russia. Photo 2: Logo of 的 22nd World Petroleum 国会 scheduled to be held in Istanbul. ©Gaurav Sharma，2014年6月。

21 WPC莫斯科：谁在这里，并说了到目前为止

The 油腻的 finds himself in Moscow for 的 第21届世界石油大会, following on from 的 三年前在多哈的最后一个. However, what's different here is that while 的 国会 is a global event – often dubbed 的 Olympics of 的 oil & gas business – 的 2014 host government Russia is involved in a face-off with 的 West over 乌克兰.

There were whispers on Sunday that some governments 和 corporates alike would boycott 的 国会. However, based on evidence here on 的 ground over 的 first day 和 half, 的 gossip seems to be unfounded.

At 的 mammoth 番红花博览会 Centre, mingling with some 5,000 delegates are IOC 和 NOC bosses of every colour, stripe or nationality. Government representatives from around 的 world seem to be in solid 在tendance too. For instance, India's new Petroleum 和 Natural Gas Minister Dharmendra Pradhan seems to be a popular man with delegates doubtless wishing to gain insights into 总理纳伦德拉·莫迪（Narendra Modi）'s energy policy.

On 的 other hand, 的 我们 government has sent no high level representative 和 while 的 Canadians are here, 的 all important oil producing 艾伯塔省 一位消息人士说，“决定不参加”。此外，通过与多哈进行类似的比较，这位博客作者认为参与程度没有降低。

在座的人们看到了埃克森美孚公司首席执行官雷克斯·蒂勒森（Rex Tillerson）参加（并致辞）他的第四届WPC。蒂勒森呼吁推动包括北极钻探在内的“非常规”环境管理。

"We must recognise 的 global need for energy is projected to grow, 和 grow significantly," he added. Close on Tillerson's heels, 欧佩克 Secretary General 阿卜杜拉·塞勒姆·埃尔·巴德里 told 的 国会: "In a global energy future, 和 with connected markets, no one party can act alone. We need shared solutions for market stability."

Acknowledging his hosts, 巴德里 added that 的re were healthy partnerships between Russian oil companies 和 欧佩克 member NOCs choosing to flag-up 的 卢克石油公司的全球足迹 as an example."Russia a key partner in 的 global energy supply equation as 的 world's second-largest oil exporter," 巴德里 said further.

This morning, BP's boss 鲍勃·杜德利 said 的 我们 shale bonanza had to be taken into context before jumping to global conclusions.

"Not all shale is good from a commercial standpoint," he said sharing 的 stage with 丹尼尔·耶金 （普利策奖获奖作家兼IHS副主席）和Jose Alcides Santoro Martins（能源总监）&石油和巴西国家石油公司董事会成员）。

达德利还说石油& gas sector project investment 的se days was driven by much better capital discipline. The industry had learnt 和 的re was ever greater ROCE (return on capital employed) scrutiny.

Earlier, Dudley's PR boys managed a bit of a coup by timing 的 release of 的 company's latest 世界能源统计评论, one of 的 industry's most recognised annual research reports, on 的 first day of 的 国会. BP's 63rd annual statistical trend update since 1952 noted that last year 中国, 我们 A 和 Russia were 的 three largest consumers of oil 和 gas.

我们 和 中国 collectively accounted for 70% of global 原油 oil demand. More generally, non-OECD demand for 2013 came in below average, while OECD demand, propped up by 的 我们 was above average, according to BP Chief Economist 克里斯托夫·鲁尔, soon to be Abu Dhabi Investment Authority's inaugural global head of research.

Tight oil plays edged 我们 production up by over 1 million barrels per day (bpd) to 10 million bpd; 的 country's highest production rate since 1996. Ruhl opined that this was largely behind relatively stable global oil prices as North 美国n output matched each supply disruption in 的 Middle East 和 North Africa virtually "barrel for barrel."

Finally, general analyst consensus here about 伊拉克 is that 的 trouble itself is not as worrying as 的 speed with which it has unfolded, raising serious questions about 的 territorial integrity of 的 country. Additionally, 的re could be some long term implications for 的 oil price.

Alex Griffiths, head of natural resources 和 commodities 在 惠誉评级, acknowledges that 的 seizure of Mosul 和 在tacks on Tikrit by 伊斯兰国 are not an immediate threat to 伊拉克's oil production, or 的 ratings of Western investment-grade oil companies.

The areas under 在tack are not in 伊拉克's key oil-producing regions in 的 south or 的 additional fields in 的 northeast as discussed 在此博客的前面.

"However, if conflict spreads 和 的 market begins to doubt whether 伊拉克 can increase its output in line with forecasts 的re could be a sharp rise in world oil prices because 伊拉克i oil production expansion is a major contributor to 的 long-term growth in global oil output," Griffiths added. That's all from Moscow for 的 moment folks! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

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© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2014. Photo 1: Logo of 的 第21届世界石油大会, Moscow, Russia. Photo 2: (Left to Right) Jose Alcides Santoro Martins（Petrobras），Daniel Yergin（IHS）和Bob Dudley（BP）©Gaurav Sharma，2014年6月。

欧佩克's politics is 的 main show, not 的 quota

The 油腻的 finds himself in a decidedly chilly 维也纳 ahead of 的 164th meeting of 欧佩克 ministers. This blogger's correspondence on all 原油 matters from 的 lovely capital of 奥地利 goes back a good few years 和 to 的 old 欧佩克 HQ.

However, in all 的se years of journeying here from London, 的re 已经 one constant - nearly every leading financial newspaper one could pick up 在 Heathrow Airport carried a report about expectations from 的 ministers' meeting ahead of 的 actual event taking place. Yet this morning, most either didn't flag up 的 meeting or had a perfunctory brief on it. The FT not only omitted a report, but with eerie symmetry had a special report on 的 future of 北美自由贸易协定 containing an 文章 on shale transforming North 美国n fortunes!

There is clear sense of anti-climax here as far as 的 decision on 的 production quota goes. Analysts think 欧佩克 will hold its quota 在 每天3000万桶（桶/日）, traders think so too, as do "informed sources", "sources close to sources", "sources of sources", etc, etc. Making it even more 官方, Algerian oil minister 尤塞夫·尤斯菲 今天在这里很坦率地告诉了一位抄写员，配额调整不太可能发生。

So why are we all here? Why for 的 sideshow of course! Silly you, for thinking it was anything but! Only thing is, cometh 的 meeting tomorrow - it's going to be one hell of a sideshow. Weaved into it is 的 油腻的's own agenda of probing 的 hypothesis of 的 incremental barrel 再远一点。

For not only are additional barrels available globally owing to a decline in 我们 imports courtesy shale, 伊拉克 - which hasn't had an 欧佩克 quota since 1998 - is seeing a massive uptick in production. Additionally 伊朗, apart from being miffed with 伊拉克 for pumping so much of 的 原油 stuff, could itself be welcomed back to market meaningfully over 的 coming months, adding its barrels to that 'crude' global pool.

While that is likely to take another six months 在 的 very least - 的 伊拉克is are pumping on regardless. You wouldn't expect anything else, but it has made 伊朗's new oil minister 比扬·赞甘（Bijan Zanganeh） come up with 的 原油 quote of 的 month (ok, last month) when he noted: “Iraq has replaced 伊朗's oil with its own. This is not friendly 在 all." Yup, tsk, tsk not nice 和 so it goes with 的 Saudis, who pumped in overdrive mode when 的 伊朗ians were first hit by sanctions in 2012.

To put things into context, without even going on a tangent about Shia-Sunni Muslim politics in 的 Middle East, 伊拉克i production has risen to 3 million bpd on 的 back of increasing inward investment. On 的 other hand, 伊朗 has seen stunted investment following 我们 和 EU sanctions with 产量从370万桶/日降至270万桶/日 as 的 move hit it hard in 2012. Even if 的 伊朗ians go into overdrive, reliable sources suggest 的y'd be hard pressed to cap 3.5 million bpd over 的 next 12 months.

As for 的 Saudis, 的y have always been in a 与俄罗斯竞争的不同联赛 (and now 的 我们 ) for 的 merit badge of being 的 world's largest producer of 的 原油 stuff. 与此同时， 的 price of 布伦特 stays 在 three figures around 我们 $111-plus - not a problem for 的 doves such as 沙特阿拉伯, but not high enough for 的 hawks such as 委内瑞拉.

The 油腻的 seriously doubts if political problems will be ironed out 在 this meeting. But what's crucial here is that it could mark a start. Can 欧佩克 unite to effectively manage 的 issue of both its 和 的 global pool's incremental barrels in wake of shale 和 all that? Appointing a new secretary general to replace 利比亚's Abdalla Salem el-Badri would be a start.

埃尔·巴德里很久才下台 but has carried on as 的 伊朗ians 和 Saudis have tussled over whose preferred candidate should be his successor. The quota decision is not 的 main talking point here, this 欧佩克 sideshow most certainly is, especially for supply-side analysts 和 students of geopolitics. That's all from 欧佩克 HQ for 的 moment folks, more from 维也纳 later! K继续阅读，保持原样 ‘crude’! 

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© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2013. Photo: 欧佩克 flag © 高拉夫·夏尔马 2013.

欧佩克 & 的 向下偏见 in 黑金’s value

The 欧佩克 ministers have packed-up 和 left with no real surprises as 的 cartel maintained its daily output 在 每天3000万桶（桶/日）. But in 的 absence of any real surprises from 欧佩克, 的 向下偏见 in 的 direction of leading oil futures benchmarks is getting stronger, given 的 perceived oversupply 和 a flat, if not dicey, macroeconomic climate. The 布伦特 forward month futures contract plummeted to nearly 我们 $100, seeing a near 2.5% dip from last week (点击图放大). Given that 的 trading community had already factored in 的 outcome of 的 163rd 欧佩克 meeting even before it concluded, most appear to be waiting to see whether 的 我们 Federal Reserve continues with its monetary stimulus programme. Even if it does so, given 的 macroeconomic permutations, it is not worth holding your breath for a ‘crude’ bounceback.

 

Far from cutting production, 的re seem to be murmurs 和 concern in 的 hawkish camps of 伊朗 和 委内瑞拉 about constantly improving production levels in 伊拉克. 阿卜杜勒·卡里姆·路易比, 伊拉克’s oil minister, confirmed 在 a media scrum in 维也纳 that 的 country plans to start production 在 two of its largest oilfields within “a matter of weeks.”

 

据al-Luaibi称，Majnoon（即将到来）和Gharraf（将于7月到期）开始生产，随后在West Qurna-2的第三个设施（如果不是更早的话将于12月到期）将使伊拉克的产能提高40万桶/天。国家’s current output is about 3.125 million bpd. The additional capacity would bolster its second position, behind 沙特阿拉伯, in 的 欧佩克 output league table.

 

The 伊拉克is have a monetary incentive to produce more of 的 原油 stuff. Sadly for 欧佩克, it will come 在 a time 的 cartel does not need it. Instead of adherence, 的re will be further flouting of 的 recently agreed upon quota by some members. 伊拉克 is not yet even included in 的 quota (and may not be until late into 2014).

 

Non-OPEC supply is seeing 的 ranks of 的 usual suspects Russia 和 Norway, joined ever more meaningfully by Brazil, Kazakhstan, Canada 和 not to mention (and how can you not mention) – 的 我们 , courtesy of its shale supplies 和 more efficient extraction techniques 在 Texan conventional plays. So a 向下偏见 will prevail – for now.

 

In fact, 摩根士丹利 did not even wait for 的 欧佩克 meeting to end before downgrading oil services firms, mostly European ones, based on 的 conjecture that IOCs as well as NOC（其中一些来自OPEC辖区）将向E分配相对较低的资本支出&P.

 

Robert Pulleyn, analyst 在 摩根士丹利, wrote 和 的 油腻的 quotes: “With oil prices 的 key determinant of industry operating cash flow, 和 given our expectation for an increasingly range bound price environment, we expect industry-operating-cash-flow growth to fall from 14% compound annual growth rate (since 2003) to about 3% in 的 future. We expect capex growth to fall to around 5% a year to 2020, compared to 18% compound annual growth rate since 2003.”

 

Of 的 five it downgraded 星期四 – 即。 Vallourec，SBM Offshore，CGG Veritas，TGS-NOPEC和Subsea 7– only 的 latter avoided a dip in share price following 的 news. However, 摩根士丹利 upgraded John Wood Group, saying it is better positioned to withstand a lower growth outlook for industry spending.

 

至于原油本身的价格，许多分析师没有’不要等待欧佩克与德国商业银行，法国兴业银行以及美国银行美林证券（BoAML）一起对布伦特原油的看空。 BoAML削减了 由于全球石油需求下降，供应增加和库存增加，布伦特原油价格预期从2013年下半年的每桶111美元升至103美元。该银行预计明年总体疲软将持续，并将其2014年布伦特平均油价预期从每桶112美元下调至105美元。所以你有它’都是维也纳人的！

 

由于它’s time to say 奥夫·维德森, 的 油腻的 leaves you with a view of 的 city’s Irrgarten 和 迷宫 在 的 美泉宫 理由（看到正确的). Once intended for 的 amusement of Austro-Hungarian royalty 和 的ir guests, this amazing maze is now for 的 public’s amusement.

 

当这个奇妙的地方的游客迷路了 a maze for fun, 欧佩克 ministers going round in circles over a key appointment to 的 post of Secretary General is hardly entertaining. At such a challenging time for it, 的 12-member oil exporters’ club could do with a bit of unity. Yet it cannot even unite behind a single candidate for 的 post –拖了一年的东西– as 竞争对手伊朗和沙特阿拉伯 continue to hold out for 的ir chosen candidate for 的 post. Furthermore, it’沿什叶派和逊尼派路线采取了丑陋的宗派语调。

 

Worryingly, this time around, neither 的 Saudis nor 的 伊拉克is are in any mood for a compromise as 的 rest of 的 10 members wander around in a maze feeling dazed about shale, internal rivalries, self interest 和 plain old fashioned market anxieties. The 油腻的 maintains it’认为非常规生产的增加正在使之为时尚早 欧佩克 irrelevant，但它的成员正在不知不觉地努力做到这一点！继续阅读，继续阅读‘crude’!

 

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© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2013. Graph: World 原油 oil futures benchmarks to 可能 25, 2013 ©法国兴业银行。照片：Irrgarten&迷宫，美泉宫，维也纳，奥地利© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2013.

页岩& 的 163rd 欧佩克 ministers’ summit

The 油腻的 has exchanged 的 blustery wind 和 rain in London for 的 blustery wind 和 rain in 维也纳 ahead of 163rd 欧佩克 meeting of ministers here on 可能 31, which half 的 world’的媒体和能源分析社区已经将其称为‘non-event’. The other half are about to! Industry commentators here 和 beyond think 的 12 member group is going to hold its current production quota 在 just above 每天3000万桶（桶/日）.

 

Even before yours truly boarded 的 flight from London Heathrow, a Rotterdam based contact in 的 现货交易 world suggested one needn’t have bothered with 的 market having already factored-in an “as you were” stance by 欧佩克. This is borne out in further anecdotal evidence; 的 futures market on leading benchmarks has been bearish in 的 past 48 hours (not solely down to 欧佩克).

 

Accompanying overtones describing 的 meeting as a 非事件 is 的 sentiment that 欧佩克 is being haunted by North 美国’s shale revolution. As if with perfect timing, 的 我们 EIA announced 星期四 that 的 country's 原油-oil supplies rose 3 million barrels for 的 week ended 可能 24, to 397.6 million barrels; 的 highest level on record since it began collecting data in 1978.

 

上个星期， 的 International Energy Agency (IEA) added its take on North 美国n production scenarios by suggesting that demand for 欧佩克's oil is expected to plummet as production from 的 我们 (and Canada) increases by a fifth to 11.9 million bpd by 2018, compared with this year.

 

Additionally, 伊拉克i production is returning to health. So to put things into context, by 2020 的 IEA expects 伊拉克's oil output to more than double to 6.1 million bpd 和 were this to happen, 欧佩克’s unofficial production could rise well above 36 million bpd. As a knee-jerk reaction, 的 cartel – according to 的 agency – would have to withhold up to 2.3 million bpd from 的 market by 2015 (with its spare capacity rising well above 7 million bpd).

 

Given all of this, you might be excused for thinking 的 global 原油 market was facing a supply glut 和 everything was gloomy from 欧佩克’s standpoint. Yet, 的 price of oil – 布伦特 or 欧佩克’s own basket of 原油(s) –仍高于每桶100美元。那’正是OPEC中大多数人希望达到的目标。

 

Arriving a day (or two) ahead of 的 meeting, 7 out of 12 欧佩克 ministers have told various media outlets that a 我们 $100 price was acceptable, where it needs to be 和 “necessary” for investment.  These include senior government 官方s from Angola, Ecuador, 伊拉克, 科威特, 沙特阿拉伯, UAE 和 委内瑞拉. A 我们 $100 floor price is a uniting 的me it seems 和 most have sounded intent on holding 的 current 官方 production quota!

 

推测是只要维持地板，卡特尔’将减少产量。实际上，欧佩克的主力军和沙特阿拉伯’自5月28日以来一直在维也纳的石油部长纳利（Ali al-Naimi）说，现有条件  代表着面对经济逆风的市场的最佳环境，并且“demand is great.”尽管文士，博客作者，电讯员和分析师集体做出了最大的努力，但伊朗和委内瑞拉都一直在努力削减价格以提振价格，但在过去的24小时中他们都没有发表太多意见。

 

相比之下，欧佩克伊拉克石油部长阿卜杜勒·卡里姆·路易比’第二大生产商说，“There is balance between demand 和 supply, 和 this is reflected on prices, 的y are stable. We don’t want any shock to 的 market, 的 stability of prices is important for 的 global economy.”

 

The 油腻的 thinks 的 cartel will maintain status quo until 的 floor dips to 我们 $80 per barrel, if it does. However, 的 unity will disappear 的 moment 的 oil price dips below 我们 $99 with 委内瑞拉 和 伊朗 being among 的 first to start clamouring for another production quota cut.

 

This brings us back to 的 hullabaloo about North 美国n shale (and unconventional E&P) versus 欧佩克! The right wing commentators 和 的 我们 media plus politicians of all stripes –有些人会轻易忘记加拿大’s part in 的 North 美国n energy spectrum – make it sound as if 欧佩克, which still accounts for just over 40% of 的 world’s 原油 oil market, would suddenly become irrelevant overnight.

 

IEA， as 的 油腻的 noted a few weeks ago, described it as nothing short of a paradigm shift in 的 context of 的 oil market, although in not 的se exact words. Then 的re is 的 dilemma of 欧佩克 ministers – who are damned if 的y do 和 damned if 的y don’t. If an 欧佩克 minister acknowledges 的 impact of North 美国n shale, he is described in 的 media as one who is resigned to 的 cartel’s decline. Conversely, if an 欧佩克 minister dismisses it, 的 rebuttal is that he’之所以这样做，是因为他’s scared!

 

他说，这是今天下午的一个例子，当时伊拉克部长阿尔·路易比被要求发表评论，“美国页岩油产量增加– although it has some impact, it's not a significant impact on oil production or exports, 和 as you all might notice 欧佩克 countries are all producing more oil than 的 agreed quota ceiling.”

现在，您可以自己进行有关如何在美国国内报道报价的研究，而不是像Oilholic那样做？它将证明前一段中表达的观点。您的确不是在轻视页岩气革命的国度–但是，如何在中期以上维持目前的增产水平仍是常识。因此，值得对此感到兴奋但又不要太兴奋！此外，在这场辩论中需要一点实用主义– one which the Oilholic saw in a brilliant article in 的 FT by Ajay Makan.

 

In 的 column, Makan notes how within 欧佩克 的re is divide between 的 relatively comfortable Gulf producers (for e.g. 沙特阿拉伯) 和 的 rest (most notably 伊朗, 委内瑞拉 和 African members). The Saudis have welcomed 的 impact of shale as 的y can afford 的 price falling below US$100 level but some of 的ir peers in 欧佩克 can’t. For some more than 的 others, “估算是不可避免的，尤其是在需求增长放缓的情况下，” writes Makan.

 

Then again, beyond supply scenarios, it is worth asking whose shale bonanza is it anyway? First 和 foremost it is, 和 as 的 油腻的 was discussing with 菲尔·弗林 of Price Futures a couple of months ago, price positive for 美国n consumers, followed by 液化天然气 importing Asian jurisdictions. While Indian 和 Chinese policymakers are hardly jumping for joy 和 will for 的 foreseeable future continue to rely on 欧佩克 members (and Russia) for majority of 的ir 原油 cravings, some in 的 我们 are already fretting about what 我们 exports would mean for domestic prices!

 

一群– 美国’s Energy Advantage – backed by several prominent 我们 industrial brands including Alcoa, Huntsman chemicals 和 Dow Chemical, has claimed that "exporting proceeds of shale (to be read 液化天然气) carries with it 的 potential threat of damaging jobs 和 investment in 的 我们 manufacturing sector as rising exports will drive up 的 price of gas to 的 detriment of domestic industries."

 

布恩·皮肯斯，在光彩夺目的riposte中， asked can 的 我们 do what it 已经 criticising 欧佩克 for since 的 cartel's inception 和 限制出口? The inimitable industry veteran has a point! That's all for 的 moment from 维也纳 folks! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

 

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© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2013. OPEC 奥地利维也纳总部外部的徽标 © 高拉夫·夏尔马.

欧佩克 'maintains' production quota @ 30mbpd

欧佩克 has maintained its production quota 在 每天3000万桶（桶/日） following 的 conclusion of its 162nd meeting in 维也纳, 奥地利. Member 伊拉克 is yet to be included in 的 current daily production figure, while 利比亚 would be shortly, it said.

油producers group also announced that 现任秘书长阿卜杜拉·塞勒姆·巴德里的任期将延长 for one more year with effect from 一月 1, 2013 but did not assign any reason for 的 extension. Under existing norms, an 欧佩克 秘书长通常在任期两届后卸任。

Sources say, 的 unexpected move was down to the inability of 欧佩克 members to unite behind a common candidate for 的 office of Secretary General. The issue 已经 in 的 背景 已经有一段时间了。

欧佩克 said it had reviewed 的 oil market outlook 和 the existing supply/demand projections for 2013 in particular. It added that ministers had noted 的 price volatility witnessed throughout 2012, which in its opinion "remained mostly a reflection of increased levels of speculation in 的 commodities markets, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions 和, latterly, exceptional weather conditions."

它也是 observed mounting pessimism over 的 global economic outlook, with downside risks continuing to be presented by 的 sovereign debt crisis in 的 Eurozone, high unemployment in 的 advanced economies 和 inflation risk in 的 emerging economies.

因此， OPEC delegates 指出，尽管预计世界石油需求将增加 marginally during 的 year 2013, this is likely to be more than "offset by 的 projected increase in non-OPEC supply" 和 that projected demand for 欧佩克 原油 in 2013 is expected to contract to 29.7 million bpd. This, it said, was "largely behind" its decision to maintain 的 current production level.

欧佩克 added that "member countries would, if 必要, take steps to ensure market balance 和 reasonable price levels for producers 和 consumers." In taking this decision, member countries confirmed that 的y will swiftly respond to developments that might have a detrimental impact on an orderly oil market.

除了el-Badri的扩展’任期内，欧佩克任命 Yasser M. Mufti, 沙特阿拉伯n Governor for 欧佩克, as Chairman of 的 Board of Governors for 2013, 和 Ali Obaid Al Yabhouni, UAE Governor for 欧佩克, as Alternate Chairman for 的 same period, also with effect from 一月 1, 2013. 欧佩克 said its next 会议将于2013年5月31日在奥地利维也纳召开。

Despite persistent questioning by 的 assembled scribes about details on individual members' quotas, 欧佩克 did not divulge 的m or how 的y will be enforced. That's all from 的 欧佩克 HQ! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

©Gaurav Sharma2012。照片：  欧佩克 Secretary General Abdalla Salem el-Badri 在 的 conclusion of162nd 欧佩克 meeting on 十二月 12, 2012, 维也纳, 奥地利 ©Gaurav Sharma，2012年12月。

欧佩克 hawks are back in town (too)!

So 的 原油 games have begun, 摄制组已经开始到达 and 的 Saudis have begun throwing down 的 gauntlet by first suggesting that 欧佩克 actually raise its output 和 的n indicating that 的y might well be happy with 的 current production cap 在 30 million bpd. However, hawks demanding a cut in production are also in 维也纳 in full flow.

With benchmark 原油 futures dipping below 我们 $100, 的 委内瑞拉ns say 的y are “concerned” about fellow members violating 的 agreed production ceiling. In fact, 委内瑞拉n President Hugo Chavez expressed his sentiments directly over 的 air-waves rather than leave it to his trusted minister 在 的 欧佩克 table - 拉斐尔·拉米雷斯（Rafael Ramirez） .

拉米雷斯说，抵达维也纳时，“We are going to make a very strong call in 的 meeting that 的 countries that are over-producing cut. We think we need to keep 的 ceiling on production of 30 million that was agreed 在 our last meeting in 十二月."

伊拉克的阿卜杜勒·卡里姆·卢阿比（Abdul Kareem Luaibi）对媒体表示，“欧佩克供应过剩”存在导致“在很短的时间内价格的严重下降。”抱怨也似乎是 coming from 的 Algerian camp, while 的 科威特is described 的 market conditions as “strange.”

科威特星期一对记者讲话’石油部长哈尼·侯赛因（Hani Hussein）说，“Some of 欧佩克 members are 关心 about 的 prices 和 what’s happening…关于价格走势和生产的方向。”

However, Hussein refused to be drawn into a discussion over a proposed 欧佩克 production cut by 的 hawks.

与此同时， one cartel member with most to fear from a dip in 的 原油 price – 伊朗 – has also unsurprisingly called for an adherence to 的 欧佩克 production quota. Stunted by 我们 和 EU sanctions, it has seen its production drop to 3 million bpd - 的 lowest in eight quarters. Much to its chagrin, regional geopolitical rival 沙特阿拉伯 has lifted its global supply to make-up 的 absence of 伊朗ian 原油 in certain global markets.

At 的 cartel’在12月的最后一次会议上，欧佩克成员国同意举行‘official’ output 在 30 million bpd. Yet, extra unofficial production came from 沙特阿拉伯, 伊拉克 和 科威特. Say what you will, 的 油腻的 is firmly in 的 camp that a reintroduction of individual 欧佩克 quotas to help 的 cartel control its members’生产极不可能。那’s all for 的 moment folks! Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

©Gaurav Sharma2012。照片： 奥地利维也纳OPEC总部外的广播媒体集合点 © 高拉夫·夏尔马 2011.

Economic malaise & ratings agencies' 原油 talk

Not 的 time to say 的 油腻的 told you so – but 的 bears never left Crude town. They were merely taking a breather after mauling 的 oil futures market in the first week of 八月. It is a no brainer that existing conditions, i.e. fears of recessionary trends in 的 我们 , a slowdown in 中国 和 Eurozone’s debt fears, 吓坏了（再次！）。

周一格林尼治标准时间14：30，ICE布伦特原油远期期货合约 盘中下跌1.5％或1.63美元，至110.70美元。同时，WTI期货合约受美国经济不景气的影响更大， was down 2.8% or 我们 $2.58 trading 在 我们 $84.27. Feedback from 的 city suggests reports of sluggish Chinese service sector growth are as much of a concern as a quarter or two of negativity in 的 我们 .

In fact, analysts 在 Commerzbank believe were it not for market sentiment factoring in possible measures by 的 我们 Federal Reserve to stimulate 的 economy, 的 WTI could have dipped even further. Additionally, 的 利比亚n instability premium is fast on 的 verge of being factored out too even though its supply dynamic is far from returning to normalcy.

法国兴业银行 analyst Jesper Dannesboe believes that 布伦特 prices are exposed to a sharp drop down to 我们 $100, or lower, before year-end as oil demand weakens 和 的 market starts pricing in weak 2012 economic 和 oil demand growth.

“The recent sharp drop in leading indicators in Europe 和 的 我们 suggest that demand destruction is likely to escalate, 的reby resulting in significant drop in global oil demand growth. It is worth remembering that while Chinese demand growth is likely to remain solid, 中国 still only account for about 11-12% of global oil consumption in absolute terms. In other words, 的 demand outlook in 我们 和 Europe remains a key driver of oil consumption, 和 的refore oil prices,”他在最近的一份投资报告中写道。

所有迹象表明，法国兴业银行’s Global head of oil research 迈克·威特纳 will review his oil price forecast 和 will be publishing new lower oil demand 和 oil price forecast in 的 investment bank’s Commodity Review slated for publication on Sept 12. However, it is also worth moving away from pricing analysis to discuss what 的 perceived malaise means for 的 energy business; both 惠誉评级 和 穆迪’s have been 在 it.

In a report published on 八月 30, Fitch calculates that average oil 和 gas sector revenue growth will be 6%-7% in 2012, but considers that 的re is a 20% chance that sector revenue growth may actually be less than zero next year due to slower developed market macroeconomic growth that may also adversely impact oil prices. （点击图片放大）。 惠誉（Fitch）能源和公用事业团队的伦敦高级主管Jeffrey Woodruff指出，“如果2012年美国实际GDP增长率约为1.8％，布伦特平均油价为每桶90美元，那么明年石油和天然气行业的平均收入是否会增长或收缩，就可能有50/50的机会。 ”

惠誉认为，2011年行业收入平均增长20％左右，但此后很可能会放缓至低两位数甚至高个位数的增长率。 EBITDA增长倾向于大致遵循收入增长趋势，但波动性更大。如果2012年行业平均收入增长放缓至零，则EBITDA平均增长可能为负。此类事件对现金流量的影响对于投资级别名称而言可能不大，但对于投机级别较低且更容易受到收益波动影响的公司，则更为严重。

A slowing global economy 和 particularly weak 我们 economic growth could negatively impact demand for oil for 的 remainder of 2011 和 potentially into 2012. Fitch anticipates 的 overall rating impact of a slowdown in average sector revenue growth in 2012 will be minimal for investment grade names. However, for non-investment grade companies, it would be an entirely different matter. Fitch believes 的y would be more affected 和 的 agency could revise rating Outlooks to Negative.

In a report also published on 的 same day by 穆迪’s, specifically on downstream, 的 agency notes that refining 和 marketing (R&M) sector has reached a peak in its business cycle, with limited prospects for improving from current levels over 的 next 12-18 months as capacity overtakes demand.

As result, 的 agency changed its outlook on 的 R&M sector to stable from positive, because of 的 considerable risk generated by upcoming capacity additions worldwide. The stable outlook means 穆迪's expects business conditions in 的 R&M sector neither to improve nor deteriorate significantly over 的 next 12-18 months. It last changed 的 R&M部门的前景，从今年3月31日的稳定转为乐观。

Gretchen French, 穆迪's Vice President 和 Senior Analyst, expects global demand for gasoline 和 distillate to grow modestly through 2012, based on 的 agency’s central scenario of a sluggish global recovery. "However, a capacity glut could suppress margins across 的 R&如果需求或产能合理化未能抵消预期的供应增长，则最早可在2012年实现M部门的发展。”

毕竟，计划在2012年每天将有近240万桶的新产能投入全球使用。目前，估计2012年的全球需求仅为160万桶。’s reckons 的se concerns, coupled with elevated prices, continued high unemployment in 的 OECD, softer 我们 or Eurozone economies, 和 inflation-stemming efforts in 中国 could all dampen demand for refined products. Blimey! Did we leave anything out? The 油腻的 bets 的 bears didn’t either.

On a related note, 的 latest 伊拉克i oil exports figures, released by country’s Oil Ministry, make for interesting reading. Data for 七月 suggests total exports came in 在 67.2 billion barrels down marginally from 68.2 billion in 六月. However, as oil prices rose over 的 corresponding period, revenue actually rose 2% netting 的 government 我们 $7.31 billion with output currently pegged 在 around 2.17 bpd.

The total revenue to end-July came in 在 我们 $48.6 billion which does suggest that 的 country is on track to meet its revenue target of 我们 $82.5 billion as stated in its 二月 2011 budget statement. However, given what is going on in 的 market 在 的 moment, future 原油 price could be a concern. It seems 的 伊拉克i budget is predicated 在 a price of 我们 $76.50 a barrel. So 的re is nothing to worry about for 的m, for now!

最后，这是一个有趣的 CNBC板块 on 的 town of Williston (North Dakota, 我们 A) brought to 的 油腻的’s 在tention, by a colleague who is from around those parts. He calls it Boomtown 我们 A 和 it may not be that far from 的 truth!

©Gaurav Sharma2011。照片：炼油厂-加拿大魁北克©迈克尔·梅尔福德（Michael Melford）/国家地理。图：油&天然气行业平均收入增长率©惠誉国际评级，伦敦，2011年。