利雅得那些响亮的政治大爆炸

Riyadh, capital of 的 world’s most prolific of 原油 oil producing nation – 沙特阿拉伯 – has been rocked by both physical 和 political bangs this weekend, 的 油腻的 notes. Overnight, state TV confirmed 的 Saudis had intercepted a ballistic missile aimed 在 Riyadh's 哈立德国王机场 fired by 也门’s 胡塞叛军.

Witnesses reported loud bangs 和 parts of 的 destroyed missile were found in 的 airport’s car park. 的 Saudis are leading a campaign to defeat 的 Houthis, as part of an international air coalition that has bombed 的 rebel group since 2015. Who else, but 伊朗, purportedly backs 的 rebels. 

Following 的 physical bang, came 的 political bang later in 的 day in 的 form of surprise dismissals 和 arrests of dozens of Saudi ministers, royals, officials 和 senior military officers by 的 country’的王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼（Mohammed bin Salman）。 

Even by secretive Saudi standards, 的 move is unprecedented. It points to an audacious 在tempt by 的 Prince to consolidate his 功率 base 和 move closer to his ultimate objective of ascending to 的 country’s throne.

His father 萨尔曼国王 has been doing his bit too. Under convention, Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, a seasoned royal, 原为first in line to 的 throne to succeed Salman. But 的 King ousted him from 的 line of succession 和 stripped him of his role as interior minister.

Earlier in his reign, 萨尔曼国王 had removed his half-brother Prince Muqrin from 的 line of succession. By 四月 2015, 的 king had appointed Prince 穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼（Mohammed bin Salman） as second-in-line to 的 throne, giving him 的 title of deputy crown prince, a move that surprised many senior members of 的 ruling 沙特家族.

Now through what on paper appears to be an anti-corruption purge, 的 father-son duo have all but made sure of 穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼（Mohammed bin Salman）’s safe passage to 的 throne. However, in highly tribal 沙特阿拉伯, reports suggest 的 move has not gone down well. 

How it all plays out in terms of geopolitical 风险 和 的 impact all of this could have on 的 oil price remains to be seen. For now 在 least, it’s just a few 原油 bangs, albeit 在 a time 的 oil price is back above 七月 2015 levels. 那’s all for 的 moment folks! Keep reading, keep it 原油!

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© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2017. Photo: Oil extraction facility in 的 中东 © Shell.

对不断变化的能源格局的看法

那 we're in 的 midst of a profound change in 的 energy markets in unquestionable. However, fossil fuels still remain 的 default medium of choice. Within those broader confines, 的 oil market is seeing a supply-driven correction of 的 sort that probably occurs once in a few decades.

Meanwhile, 峰 oil 的orists are in retreat following in 的 footsteps of 峰 coal 的orists last heard of during a bygone era. However, what does it all mean for 的 wider energy spectrum, where from here 和 what are 的 stakes?

Authors 和 industry experts 丹尼尔·拉卡拉（Daniel Lacalle） 和 迭戈·帕里利亚 have 在tempted to tackle 的 very questions in 的ir latest work 的 Energy World is Flat: Opportunities from 的 end of 峰 oil (由Wiley发布）。

In a way, 的 questions aren’t new, but scenarios 和 backdrops evolve 和 of course have evolved to where we currently are. So do 的 answers, say Lacalle 和 Parrilla as 的y analyse 的 past, scrutinise 的 present 和 draw conclusions for future energy market pathways.

In this book of 300 pages, split by 14 interesting chapters, 的y opine that 的 energy world is flat principally down to "ten flatteners" along familiar tangents such as geopolitics, reserves 和 resources, overcapacity, demand displacement 和 destruction, 和 of course 的 economics of 的 day. 

地缘政治始终是当前讨论的切入点，而作者则应尽一切义务。随着叙述的微妙发展，相关讨论触及了哪些技术正在推动当前的市场变化以及它们如何影响投资者。在此过程中，对于能源领域的过去和当前变化，有很多需要讨论的问题。除非您了解过去，否则您将无法从现在获利，成为这里的全面信息。

“New frontiers” in 的 oil 和 gas business, today’s “unconventional” becoming tomorrow’s “conventional”, 和 resource projections are all 的re 和 duly discussed.

To quote 的 authors, 的 world has another 1.5 trillion barrels of proven plus probable reserves that are both technically 和 economically viable 在 current prices 和 available technology, 和 another 5 trillion-plus barrels that are not under current exploration parameters but might be in 的 future. Furthermore, what about 的 potential of methane hydrates?

Politics, of course, is never far from 的 原油 stuff, as Lacalle 和 Parrilla note delving into 欧佩克 shenanigans 和 的 high stakes game between 我们 页岩, 俄语 和 Saudi producers leading to 的 recent supply glut – a shift with 的 potential to completely alter economics of 的 business.

什么 struck 的 油腻的 原为how in-depth 分析 has been packaged by 的 authors in an engaging, dare one say easy reading style on what remains a complex 和 controversial discussion. For industry analysts, 这个博客 including, it’s a brilliant 和 现实主义者ic assessment of 的 state of affairs 和 what potential investors should or shouldn’t look 在.

的 油腻的 would be happy to recommend 的 book to individual investors, energy economists, 学术的s in 的 field 和 of course, those simply curious about 的 general direction of 的 energy markets. Policymakers might also find it well worth 的ir while to take notice of what 的 authors have put forward.

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©高拉夫·夏尔马（Gaurav Sharma），2015年。© Photo: Front Cover – 的 Energy World is Flat: Opportunities from 的 end of 峰 oil © 威利出版社，2015年2月。

‘Yukos Affair’及其对普京的阴影’s 俄国

President 弗拉基米尔普京 和 what colours his vision of modern 俄国 are under 的 spotlight like never before. As Ukraine burns 和 西方制裁 hit 的 Kremlin, 俄国’布什总统仍然不屈不挠地涌现出更多支持者，但民族主义言论更为强烈。许多人会发现普京的内部政治’俄罗斯在同等程度上令人着迷和反感。

Yet, in order to understand 的 present, a past occurrence – 的 downfall of 尤科斯 和 its former chief 米哈伊尔·霍多尔科夫斯基 –将是一个很好的起点。在他的最新著作中 I.B. 金牛座, 学术的 理查德·萨瓦（Richard Sakwa） not only describes 的 episode in some detail but also contextualises 功率 struggles 和 insecurities that shaped one of 的 most controversial episodes in contemporary 俄国.

这本书不是 ’t merely Khodorkovsky's story from an unceremonious arrest in 2003 to a surprising release in 十二月 2013. Rather, 的 author has taken that backdrop to give 的 readers an insight into 的 beginning 和 subsequent evolution of ‘Putinism’ as we know it. 

In just under 300 pages split by 12 chapters, Sakwa, an expert on 俄语 affairs with half a dozen works under his belt, has portrayed 的 event as an extraordinary confrontation between 的 two great forces of modernity – 的 state 和 的 market –与普京和霍多尔科夫斯基作对。 

“It 原为about 的ir associated conceptions of freedom 和 在 的 same time –为俄罗斯而斗争” he writes. 普京’决心剪辑霍多尔科夫斯基’s petrodollar 功率ed wings marked a turning point. 的 oligarch’s controversial trial(s) 在tracted widespread international condemnation 和 ended in one of 的 world's richest 和 most 功率ful men becoming 的 state's prisoner. 

Far-reaching political 和 economic consequences in its wake left an indelible black mark about 的 quality of freedom in 普京's 俄国. It also laid bare 的 complex connection between 的 Kremlin 和 big business during 俄国's troubling transformation from a planned economy during 的 Soviet era to capitalism.

Being an outsider, it is easy to feel sympathetic towards Khodorkovsky 和 castigate 的 俄语 way. However, by not overtly romanticising Khodorkovsky's resistance to 普京’s view of modern 俄国, Sakwa paints a convincing picture of how 的 oligarch turned prisoner himself 原为no stranger to 的 contradictory essence of 的 country's democratic evolution.

As 的 author notes, Khodorkovsky 原为not only 普京’s antagonist, but also 在 的 same time a protagonist of 的 contradictions that 的 president's regime reflected. Ultimately, it all leads on to how subversion of law 和 constitutionality has become commonplace in today’s 俄国.

While 的 said subversion started taking hold in post-Soviet 俄国, 和 Khodorkovsky most certainly used it to his advantage when it suited him; it 原为的 oligarch’s ultimate downfall that made 的 state of affairs manifestly obvious beyond 的 country’的边界。今天与普京共鸣’一贯的根深蒂固的作案手法。 

通过他对俄罗斯关键事件的精妙而均衡的描述’s rise towards becoming an oil 和 gas 功率house, Sakwa has charted a warning from history on what to expect 和 where it might lead. 的 油腻的 would be happy to recommend 普京 和 的 Oligarch to energy analysts, those interested in geopolitics, 俄国, 尤科斯事件 or 的 oil world 在 large.

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©Gaurav Sharma2014。照片：封面– 普京 和 的 Oligarch: 的 Khodorkovsky-Yukos Affair © I.B.金牛座，2014年2月。

地缘政治速成班

Supply side oil 和 gas analysts including 这个博客, as well as traders of (physical not paper) 原油 oil contracts feel like tearing 的ir hair when some speculator or 的 other hits 的 airwaves citing “risk premium”, “instability premium” or more correctly “geopolitical premium” as 的 pretext for going long on oil no matter how much of 的 原油 stuff is in 的 pipeline.

As we are currently witnessing one of those rare moments in 的 oil market's history when surplus supplies 和 stunted demand are pretty much neutering 的 speculators’ geopolitical pretext, you might wonder what 的 fuss is all about.

Make no mistake; while 的 selective deployment of geopolitical sentiments in betting on 的 oil price has always been open to debate, 的 connection between 的 oil industry 和 geopolitics is undeniable. And should you need a crash course, 学术的 克劳斯·多兹 has 的 answer.

在他对地缘政治的贡献中 牛津大学出版社’ 简短介绍 series, Dodds breezes you through 的 subject via a concise book of just under 160 pages, split into six chapters.

When covering a subject this vast for a succinct book concept with case studies aplenty, 的 challenge is often about what to skip, as much as it is about what to include. 的 author has been brilliant in doing so via a crisp 和 engaging narrative.

Having enjoyed this book, which is currently in its second edition, 的 油腻的 would be happy to recommend it to 的 readers of this blog. As Dodds himself notes: “It’对地缘政治至关重要” 和 amen to that!

However, be mindful that it is meant to help you understand geopolitics 和 contextualise geopolitical influences. It is neither a weighty treatise on 的 subject nor 原为intended as such. 的 title itself makes that clear.

Anyone from an analyst to a GCSE student can pick it up 和 appreciate it as much as those in a hurry to get to grips with 的 subject or are of a curious disposition. Should you happen to be in this broad readership profile, one suggests you go for it, 和 better still keep it handy, given 的 times we live in!

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©Gaurav Sharma，2014年10月。照片：封面– 地缘政治：简短介绍 ©牛津大学出版社，2014年6月。

地缘政治爱好：安倍遇到莫迪时

的 油腻的 finds himself roughly 6,000 miles east of London in Tokyo, Japan. While yours truly is here for cultural 和 ‘crude’为了追求目标，另一位游客来到小镇，以巩固关键的战略合作关系。就是印度’总理最近当选的莫迪，谁在弹出看到日本外相安倍晋三。

那里’这是两国元首之间的政治爱好。安倍晋三几乎没有在Twitter上关注任何人。莫迪是他目前关注的仅有的四个人之一！在印度大选后，日本总理对莫迪执行了令人震惊的任务，他是国际上首位祝贺莫迪的总理。如果你认为’没什么大不了的，美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马得到了安倍的热情欢迎。 NHK的莫迪镜头’日本的到来表明‘best pal’安倍·莫迪熊拥抱。朋友之间不需要的协议和形式似乎就是信息。

只是莫迪’自他今年上任以来第二次也是最重要的一次国外访问；对尼泊尔没有任何冒犯，这是他选择的第一个目的地。两位领导人都靠右，尽管印度总理’在严格的国内意义上，右翼的权威更强。日本和印度媒体对这次访问持积极态度，在头条新闻中占据了重要位置。它’除非在幕后有合作的态度，否则所有这一切都与两个国家元首之间的双边会议无先例有关。

任何值得称赞的分析师都会注意到，这实际上是平衡中国的举动，因为中国与印度和日本的关系都不稳定。莫迪（Modi）显然是在强调这一点，他对他所获得的出色接待感动了，他批评了“expansionist”某些州的海事议程。想知道他这么近的南中国海可能指的是谁？

Both countries are wary of 中国, have similar economic problems (cue inflationary concerns) 和 remain major importers of 自然资源. As if for good measure, throw religion into 的 mix as Japan’s primary faith – Buddhism – 原为founded in 的 印度n subcontinent. So finding common ground or 的 pretext of a common ground is not hard for Abe 和 Modi.

现在，安倍晋三峰会有什么大不了的吗？在油鬼中’的意见，答案是肯定的。我们’我会去找自然资源‘crude’很重要，但是请先听见– Japan is to invest 我们 $34 billion spread over 的 next five years in terms of deal valuation. 的 trade between 的 two is insipid 在 的 moment, either side of 1% of 的 total export pile in each case with 的 Japanese exporting marginally more than 的y’从印度重新进口。这使该公告成为非常积极的发展。

Japan, according to both men, could turn to 印度 for its rare earth needs, a market led by 中国. While claims of 印度 becoming a wholesale manufacturing base for Japanese electronics 和 engineering giants are a bit overblown, to quote 的 印度n PM: “我们看到了高端国防技术和装备合作的新时代。”

至于就通货膨胀交换意见-印度’直到最近才失控，只是随着该国经济开始获得发展势头而在某种程度上受到统治。另一方面，日本“Abenomics”还是没有，仍未取得增长势头（上一季度经济年度缩水6.8％）。得益于4月生效的销售税上涨，通货膨胀也不受该国控制’七月份的消费者价格指数（CPI）上涨3.4％。远高于日本银行’s target rate of 2%.

Given both countries are major importers of 原油 oil 和 natural gas, even a minor price rise has a major knock-on effect right from 的 point of importation to further down 的 consumer chain. At 的 moment, both are benefitting from a 油价两个月下跌. Both PMs think 的y can work together towards 的 采购 of liquefied natural gas, according to an 印度n source. 的 idea of two major importers strategising together sounds good, but concrete details are yet to be released.

If 的re 原为one hiccup, 的 two sides did not reach an agreement over 的 transfer of nuclear technology to 印度. Politics aside, Japan for its part is still grappling with 的 福岛的影响 on all fronts - legal, natural 和 physical. 特普科, 的 company which operated 的 plant, is still in courts. 的 latest lawsuit -要求赔偿的工人是一个大问题。

但是，不离题，这些人是如何形容首脑会议的？对于Modi来说，“upgrade”在双边关系中。对于安倍而言“a meeting of minds”. 中国 would, 和 should, view it very differently. 那里 is one not-so-mute point. Abe did not take any direct or indirect swipes 在 中国, Modi (as mentioned above) 原为not so restrained. One wonders if in Modi’为了寻求亚洲地缘政治的平衡，它是否会在印度很好地改善与日本的关系，并使它们与中国的关系恶化？

那’s all 的 contemplation from Tokyo for 的 moment folks. 的 油腻的 is heading to Hong Kong, albeit briefly, after a gap of over a decade. Its a sunny day here 在 Narita Airport as one takes off. More soon, keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

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©Gaurav Sharma2014。照片1：东京湾海滨。照片2：日本成田国际机场©Gaurav Sharma，2014年9月。

并不是那么紧张：石油市场和地缘政治紧张局势

的 month of 八月 has brought along a milestone for 的 油腻的s Synonymous Report，但让’s get going with 原油 matters for starters as 石油市场 continue to resist a 风险溢价 driven spike.

的 unfolding tragedy in 伊拉克, 利比亚’s troubles, Nigerian niggles 和 的 fear of Ebola hitting exploration 和 生产 activity in West Africa, are more than enough to provide many paper traders with 的 pretext to go long 和 spook us all. Yet, 的 plentiful supply 和 stunted OECD demand scenario that’s carried over from 持续 month 使地缘政治紧张局势可以容忍。因此，它不会以任何明显的方式渗入影响市场情绪，带来了迫切需要的价格修正。

那不是’t 的 news of 我们 air strikes on ISIS that drove 布伦特 down to a nine month low this week, rather 的 cautious mood of paper traders that did it. Among that lot were hedge fund guys n’ gals who burnt 的ir fingers recently on long bets (that backfired spectacularly in 七月), 和 resisted going long as soon as news of 的 latest 伊拉克i flare-up surfaced, quite unlike 持续 time.

According to ICE data, hedge funds 和 other money managers reduced net bullish bets on 布伦特 futures to 97,351 contracts in 的 week to 八月 5; 的 lowest on books since 二月 4. Once bitten, twice shy 和 you all know why. 布伦特 price is now comfortably within 的 油腻的’预计价格范围 2014年。

Away from pricing, 的 other big news of course is about 的 大合并 of 金德·摩根（Kinder Morgan） Inc (KMI), 金德·摩根（Kinder Morgan） Energy Partners (KMP) 和 El Paso Pipeline Partners Operating (EPBO), into one entity. 的 $71 billion plus complicated acquisition would create 的 largest oil 和 gas infrastructure company in 的 我们 by some distance 和 的 country’s third-largest corporation in 的 sector after 埃克森美孚 和 Chevron.

穆迪’s, which has suspended its ratings on 的 companies for 的 moment, says generally 的 ratings for KMP 和 its subsidiaries will be reviewed for downgrade, 和 的 ratings for KMI 和 EPBO 和 的ir subsidiaries will be reviewed for 升级.

斯图尔特·米勒, 穆迪's Vice President 和 Senior Credit Officer, notes: "KMI's large portfolio of high-quality assets generates a stable 和 predictable level of cash flow which could support a strong investment grade rating. However, because of 的 high leverage along with a high dividend payout ratio, we expect 的 new 金德·摩根（Kinder Morgan） to be weakly positioned with an investment grade rating."

坚持穆迪’s，紧随阿根廷’s default on paper, 的 agency has unsurprisingly changed its outlook on 的 country’s major companies from stable to negative. Those affected in 的 sector include 青年党. However, Petrobras 阿根廷 和 Pan American Energy 阿根廷 were spared a negative outlook given 的ir subsidiary status 和 disconnect from headline Argentine sovereign 风险.

将大头针从评级说明切换到 路透社 report, a recent one from 的 新闻专线指出 that 的 volume of 我们 原油 exports to Canada now exceeds 的 export level of 欧佩克 lightweight Ecuador. While 的 油腻的 remains unconvinced about 我们 原油 joining 的 global 原油 supply pool anytime soon, 的re’s no harm in a bit of legally permitted neighbourly help. Inflows 和 outflows between 的 countries even things out; though Canadian oil exports going 的 other way are, 和 have always been, higher.

On 的 subject of reports, here’s 的 油腻的’s latest quip on 福布斯 regarding 的 投资银行商品交易的消亡 和 another one on 的 crucial subject of furthering gender diversity in 的 oil 和 gas business. 

最后，回到起点，是时候向所有读者致以深深的谢意，感谢您的鼓励，批评，反馈，赞美（如适用）以及您阅读此博客的时间’的想法。尽管心存感激，但今天，人们仍然要表达感激之情，因为Google Analytics（分析）已确认美国读者已超过Oilholic的‘home’截至上个月的读者。

It matters as this humble blog has moved from 50 local clicks in 十二月 2009 to 148k global clicks (and counting) this year 和 its been one great journey. 的 我们 , 英国 和 Norway are currently 的 top three countries in terms of pageviews in that order (看到正确的), followed by 中国, Germany, 俄国, Canada, France, 印度 和 Turkey completing 的 top ten. Traffic also continues to climb from Australia, Brazil, Benelux, Hong Kong, Japan 和 Ukraine; so onwards 和 upwards to new frontiers with your continuing support. Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

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©Gaurav Sharma2014。照片：美国石油钻机©贝壳。图形：《 油腻的s同义报告》，2014年7月clickstats© Google Analytics

的 2013 G8 summit, 叙利亚 & 原油 prices

那里 is a 在某种程度上肯定的象征意义 being here in Northern Ireland for 的 2013 G8 summit. Who would have imagined when 的 耶稣受难日协议 原为signed in 1998, that 15 years later 的 的n sectarian strife-torn province would host 的 leaders of 的 eight leading industrialised nations for 的ir annual shindig?

那 point 原为not lost on 我们 President 巴拉克奥巴马, among 的 few who didn’t express apprehensions, when 英国 PM 戴维·卡梅伦 announced 的 venue for 的 summit last year. Cameron wanted to send a message out to 的 world that Northern Ireland 原为open for business 和 based on what yours truly has seen 和 heard so far, that's certainly a view many share.

 

向贝尔法斯特的学生讲话， 奥巴马说, "Few years ago holding a summit of world leaders in Northern Ireland would have been unthinkable. 那 we are here today shows 的 progress made in 的 path to peace 和 prosperity [since 1998]."

"If you continue your courageous path towards permanent peace, 和 all 的 social 和 economic benefits that come with it, that won't just be good for you. It will be good for this entire island, for 的 United Kingdom, for Europe; 和 it will be good for 的 world,"他加了。

Here we all are in Belfast heading to a quaint old town called 恩尼斯基林. Of course, 的 油腻的 won’t be making his way 的re in a style befitting a president, a prime minister or a gazillion TV anchors who have descended on Northern Ireland, but get 的re - he most certainly will - to examine 的 'cruder' side of things.

It has barely been a year since 的 G8减去俄罗斯 (of course) griped about rising oil prices 和 called on oil producing nations to up 的ir 生产. "We encourage oil producing countries to increase 的ir output to meet demand. We stand ready to call upon 的 International Energy Agency (IEA) to take appropriate action to ensure that 的 market is fully 和 timely supplied," 的 G7 去年八月在一份声明中说。

Of course since 的n, we’ve had 的 我们 'Shale Gale', 欧佩克的分歧 和 rising consumption of 印度 和 中国 according to 的 最新数据. 的 smart money would be on 的 G7 component of 的 G8 not talking about anything 原油, unless you include 的 geopolitical complications being caused by 叙利亚, which to a certain extent is overshadowing a largely economic summit.

那 wont 感到羞耻，因为这不是让政客摆弄市场机制。 Nonetheless, 的 布伦特 周一，前月期货在触及10周高点后接近每桶107美元。尽管平静，如果没有 a downturn, in OECD economic activity, 的 benchmark remains in three figures.

叙利亚对石油市场的影响可以忽略不计，但那里长期的内战可能会影响中东其他国家，更糟糕的是 drag a few oil producers in. Yet a stalemate between 俄语 President 弗拉基米尔普京 和 的 West has already become apparent here 在 的 G8. 那里 will, as expected, be no agreement on 叙利亚 with 的 俄语s supporting 的 Assad regime 和 的 West warily fretting over whether or not to supply 的 叙利亚n rebels with arms.

Away from geopolitics 和 的 G8, in an investment note to clients, analysts 在 investment bank 摩根士丹利 said 的 spread between WTI 和 布伦特 原油 will likely widen in 的 second half of 2013, with a Gulf Coast "oversupply driving 的 differential".

的 banks notes, 和 的 油腻的 quotes, "WTI-Brent may struggle to narrow below 我们 $6-7 per barrel 和 likely needs to widen in 2H13 (second half 2013)." 那’s all for 的 moment from Belfast folks, as 的 油腻的 heads to 恩尼斯基林! In 的 interim, yours truly leaves you with a view of Belfast's City Hall. Keep reading, keep it 'crude'

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©Gaurav Sharma2013。照片： 北爱尔兰贝尔法斯特市政厅 ©Gaurav Sharma，2013年6月17日

叙利亚的混乱，布伦特的巴克莱等

周五盘中交易中，8月份布伦特远期期货合约一度突破每桶106美元。多数分析人士认为，叙利亚局势的升级以及其演变为更广泛的地区冲突的可能性，是造成1％以上的飙升的原因。触发因素是奥巴马政府’不情愿地承认前一天晚上在叙利亚使用化学武器。油鬼’反馈表明，更多位于欧洲的供应方市场分析师认为美国表现积极 作为美国地缘政治的改变者，叙利亚陷入混乱。已经有关于叙利亚成为美俄代理战争的言论。

再加上那个以色列’s nervousness about securing its border, jumpiness in Jordon 和 behind 的 scenes manipulation of 的 Assad regime 和 叙利亚 by 伊朗. In an investment note, analysts 在 巴克莱银行 have forecasted 布伦特 to climb back to 的 尼尔森111图. Yet a deeper examination of what 的 bank’s analysts are saying would tell you that 的ir take is not a reactive response to 叙利亚.

实际上，巴克莱援引欧佩克成员国之间的供应紧张作为致病因素，特别提到尼日利亚，利比亚持续存在的问题以及伊拉克的运输问题。叙利亚冲突的价值和令人震惊的程度 交易商只是在预期更大范围的区域地缘政治爆炸（而不是不会发生）的情况下才对价格进行定价。

Away from 欧佩克 和 叙利亚, 的 Sudan-South Sudan 争议在本周再次抬头。一种 英国广播公司世界服务 星期四的报告 said Sudan had alleged that rebels based in 南苏丹 在tacked an oil pipeline 和 Diffra oilfield in 的 disputed Abyei region. 的 charge 原为denied by 南苏丹 和 的 rebels.

 

的 news follows Sudan’呼吁封锁南苏丹的石油’s pipelines to export terminals to take effect within 60 days. 的 flow of oil only resumed in 四月. Both Sudan 和 的 South are reliant on oil revenue, which accounted for 98% of 南苏丹's budget. However, 的 two countries cannot agree how to divide 的 oil wealth of 的 former united state. Some 75% of 的 oil lies in 的 South, but all 的 pipelines…well run north.

 

As 的 geopolitical analysts get plenty of food for thought, BP’s latest 世界能源统计评论 指出，2012年全球能源消耗量增长了1.8％，其中中国和印度几乎占了90％。沙特阿拉伯仍然是世界’是最大的生产国，日产量为1150万桶油当量（boepd），其次是俄罗斯，为1060万桶油当量。但是，美国以890万桶/天的水准位居第三“All hail 页岩”大队沉思。特别是作为BP noted that 2012年是美国石油产量有史以来单年度最大增幅。

 

Moving on to corporate news, 惠誉 Ratings said Repsol's voluntary offer to re-purchase €3 billion of preference shares will increase 的 group's leverage, partially offsetting any benefit from 的 proceeds of its recent 液化天然气 assets divestment (三月份透露）。 This reduces 的 potential for an 升级 or Positive Outlook on 的 group's 'BBB-' rating in 的 near term, 的 agency added. Repsol's board voted in 可能 to repurchase 的 preference shares partly with cash 和 partly with new debt.

 

Finally, Tullow Oil has won its legal battle, dating back to 2010, over 税 payable on 的 sale of oilfields in Uganda. On Friday, 的 company said a 英国 court had ruled in favour of its indemnity claim for $313 million in its entirety (when 的 Uganda’s government demanded over $400 million in capital gains 税 after Heritage Oil sold assets in 的 country to Tullow in a $1.45 billion deal).

 

Heritage said it would now evaluate its legal options 和 could launch an appeal. When 的 original deal between Heritage 和 Tullow 原为concluded, Tullow paid 的 Ugandan Revenue Authority $121.5 million – a third of 的 original $405 million 税 demand – 和 put 的 remaining $283.5 million into an escrow account.

 

那’s all for 的 moment folks! 的 油腻的 has arrived in Belfast ahead of 2013 G8 Summit in Northern Ireland under 的 英国’s presidency, where 叙利亚, despite 的 meeting being an economic forum, is bound to creep up on 的 World leaders’议程。能源相关事务也是如此。所以继续阅读，保持它‘crude’!

 

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©Gaurav Sharma2013。照片：美国加利福尼亚Veneco石油平台©里奇里德/国家地理。

沙特石油部长& 的 油腻的’s natter

沙特阿拉伯’s oil minister 阿里·纳奈米 said 的 global oil市场仍然供应充足 , in response to a question from 的 油腻的. Speaking here in Vienna, ahead of 的 closed session of oil ministers 在 的 163rd 欧佩克 meeting, 的 kingpin said, “The supply-demand situation is balanced 和 的 world oil市场仍然供应充足 .”

一位抄写员问他如何解释当前情况。“Satisfactory”是简短的回应。 Al-Naimi也说，“页岩已经足够了。北美页岩的生产增加了供应量。这是一件坏事吗？否。它是否会进入地缘政治方程式和霸权主义？当然是。地缘政治与石油一起发展了几十年 行业，并将继续。什么’s new here?!”亲爱的读者，就是这样。

尽管Na-Naimi多次被要求回答，但他拒绝了 discuss 的 subject of choosing a successor to 欧佩克 Secretary General Abdalla Salem 巴德里.

 

的 Saudis are expected to battle it out with 的 伊朗ians for 的 largely symbolic role, but one that is nonetheless central to shaping 欧佩克 policies 和 carries a lot of prestige. As in 十二月, 的 Saudis are proposing 马吉德·穆尼夫（Majid Munif）, an economist 和 former representative to 欧佩克. Tehran wants its man 戈拉姆·侯赛因·诺扎里, a former 伊朗ian oil minister, installed. Compromise candidate could be 伊拉克’s Thamir Ghadban.

 

的 tussle between 伊朗 和 沙特阿拉伯 about 的 任命已经酝酿了一段时间，并导致了12月的僵局。作为结果， 巴德里’s term 原为extended. Anecdotal evidence suggests 的 伊朗ians, as usual, are being difficult.

沙特石油公司al-Naimi：石油供需形势理想；方程是平衡的&市场仍然供应充足 twitter.com/The_Oilholic/s…
—Gaurav Sharma（@The_Oilholic） 2013年5月31日

More so, Al-Naimi appeared to 的 油腻的 to be fairly relaxed about 的 Shale ruckus, but 的 伊朗ians are worried about perceived oversupply. (Only 的 Nigerians appear to be jumpier than 的m on 的 subject of 页岩). 伊朗's oil exports, it must be noted, are 在 的ir lowest since 2010 in wake sanction over its nuclear programme.

Away from 的 tussle, Abdel Bari Ali Al-Arousi, oil minister of 利比亚 和 alternate President of 的 欧佩克 Conference, said 的 world oil demand growth forecast for 2013 is expected to increase by 0.8 million barrels per day (bpd).

非欧佩克全年总供应量略有上调至100万桶/日。 “当我们进入驾驶季节时，这种情况可能会持续到第三季度到第四季度。我们将继续竭尽所能提供市场稳定。这种稳定将使所有利益攸关方受益，并为世界经济的增长做出贡献。但是，正如我们反复说过的那样，这并不是欧佩克一个人的工作。每个利益相关者都可以在实现这一目标中发挥作用，” he added.

在霸权这个问题上，这个帖子四舍五入，它总是使傻瓜们自嘲，而且多年来这样做的确如此，以至于抄写员被允许进入的那一刻- 他们急切想要的第一位部长（包括您在内）是沙特阿拉伯的人。这说明了欧佩克内部的霸权主义。维也纳人目前仅此而已，全天和整个周末都有更新！继续阅读，保持“粗俗”！

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© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2013. 沙特阿拉伯’s oil minister 阿里·纳奈米 speaking 在 的 163rd 欧佩克 meeting of ministers ©Gaurav Sharma，2013年5月31日。

关于石油和世界大国的历史观点

Throughout his illustrious career, 学术的 Peter Randon Odell enriched 的 available oil 和 gas market commentary 和 分析 of his time, writing close to 20 books 和 numerous research papers. In 1970, Odell wrote arguably one of his most authoritative works on 的 subject – 石油与世界大国. He went on to update 和 revise it no less than eight times with 的 持续 imprint reaching bookshelves in 1986.

After over two decades, 的 old master’您可以通过Routledge重印（位于其下）再次获得洞察力 Routledge复兴计划 which aims to re-print 学术的 works that have long been unavailable. While 的 publisher’s hunt for scholarly reprints is rewinding 的 clock back to 的 持续 120 years, 的 油腻的 is not 的 least bit surprised that Odell’s most popular work is among 的 first to roll off Routledge’s printing presses for 2013 under 的 Revivals Initiative.

It 原为Odell who 原为among 的 first to catalogue 的 oil industry’s commercial clout 和 pragmatically noted in this book that 的 oil 和 gas business 原为one which no country could do without given 的 inextricable link between industrialisation 和 fossil fuels.

最重要的是，这本重印的书为奥德尔’s insight on 的 oil 和 gas business as it had evolved up 和 until 的 1980s, pre-dating 的 corporate birth of 埃克森美孚, 的 collapse of 的 Soviet Union, America’s 页岩 bonanza 和 resource nationalism to 的 extent we see today. This in itself makes 的 reprint of 石油与世界大国 无价。

的 reader gets a glimpse of energy 霸权 as it 原为up 和 until 的 1980s 和 Odell’s insight on issues of 的 day. From 欧佩克 soundbites to 的 anxieties of consuming nations, from 的 decline of 国际石油公司（IOC） to 的 rise of National Oil Companies (NOCs) – it’s all 的re, coupled with changing patterns of oil supply 和 的 dramatic fall in oil prices in 1986.

然而，奥德尔’s conclusions in this book, of just over 300 pages split by 11 chapters, sound eerily similar; a sort of a forerunner to what industry commentators are mulling over in this day 和 age. In fact, 的 deep links, which he refers to in this book, between oil 和 gas extraction, conflict, resource nationalism, global politics 和 economic prowess are as entrenched as ever.

After discussing 的 bigger picture, 的 author goes on to offer a fair bit of forward-thinking conjecture on 的 relationship between 的 oil 和 gas business 和 economic development. 那里 are also subtle hints 在 的 resource curse hypothesis – a discussion which 原为hardly mainstream in 的 1980s but is hotly debated 的se days.

This reprint bears testimony to 的 brilliance of Odell in tacking such issues head on. It would be of immense value to students of energy economics, industrial studies, international development, geopolitics 和 political 霸权. But above all, those looking to probe 的 history of 的 oil 和 gas business must certainly reach out for this engaging volume. 

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©Gaurav Sharma2013。照片： Front Cover –石油与世界大国© Routledge

经过艰苦研究的书‘crude’ 俄国

在查找有关俄罗斯石油和天然气行业的书面材料时，您（常常）会遇到陈词滥调或夸大其词。在苏联解体和寡头崛起之后，有些人会讨论混乱。“Russian”腐败和贪婪的事件–但无法解决导致它的根本原因。其他人会沉迷于一场非常熟悉的俄罗斯打击运动而没有具体的表述。 在中等分析的喧嚣中，学者塔恩·古斯塔夫森（Thane Gustafson）’s splendid work – 命运之轮: 的 Battle for Oil 和 Power in 俄国 – not only breaks 的 mould but smashes it to pieces. This weighty, arduously researched book of just under 700 pages split by 13 chapters does justice to 的 art of scrutiny when it comes to examining this complex oil 和 gas exporting jurisdiction; a rival of 沙特阿拉伯 for 的 position of 的 world’是最大的石油生产商和出口商。

 

这与权力，金钱，政治有关，但翻页，您将意识到古斯塔夫森巧妙地指出，这是一场俄罗斯之战’s ‘crude’ soul. In order to substantiate his arguments, 的 book is full of views of commentators, maps, charts 和 tables 和 over 100 pages of footnotes. 的 narrative switches seamlessly from discussing historical facts to 的 choices 俄国’政治阶级和国家’当今时代的石油行业。

 

的 complex relationship between state 和 industry, from 的 Yeltsin era to 普京’s rise is well documented 和 in some detail along with an 分析 of what it means 和 where it could lead. In a book that 的 油腻的 perceives as 的 complete package on 的 subject, it is hard to pick favourite passages –但是其中两章特别突出。

 

Early on in 的 narrative, Gustafson charts 的 birth of 俄语 oil majors 卢克, Surgutneftegaz 和 尤科斯 (and 的 latter’也要肢解）。在书的最后，作者考察了俄罗斯’s (current) accidental oil champion 俄罗斯石油公司. Both passages not only sum up 的 fortunes of 俄语 companies 和 how 的y have evolved (or in 尤科斯’案面临公司的灭绝），但也总结了克里姆林宫内部的普遍态度。

 

什么’s more, as 原油 oil becomes harder 和 more expensive to extract 和 俄语 生产 dwindles, Gustafson warns that 的 country’当前对石油收入的依赖程度是不可持续的，它必须多样化。

 

Overall, 的 油腻的 is inclined to feel that this book is one of 的 most authoritative work on 俄国 和 its oil industry, a well balanced critique with substantiated arguments 和 one which someone interested in geopolitics would appreciate as much as an 能源经济学的狂热者。

 

该博客很高兴推荐 命运之轮 对俄罗斯，石油和天然气业务，地缘政治，经济学，时事感兴趣的读者，最后但并非最不重要的读者–那些寻求他们感兴趣的主题的非小说类书籍的人’来过至于寻求故事的人，因为它’在俄罗斯，古斯塔夫森（Gustafson）的故事不多，可以叙述一切，但虚构的故事却并非如此。’t。毫无疑问，它们是迷人而辉煌的作品！

 

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©Gaurav Sharma2013。照片：封面- Wheel of Fortune: 的 Battle for Oil 和 Power in 俄国 © Belknap Press of 哈佛大学出版社.

放置n’ calls, 俄国 ‘peaking’ & Peking’s 页岩

Oil market volatility continues unabated indicative of 的 barmy nature of 的 world we live in. On 一月 25, 的 布伦特 forward month futures contract spiked above 我们 $113. If 的 day's intraday price of 我们 $113.46 is used as a cut-off point, 的n it has risen by 4.3% since Christmas Eve. If you ask what has changed in a month? Well not much! 的 阿尔及利亚恐怖袭击, despite 的 tragic nature of events, does not fundamentally alter 的 geopolitical 风险溢价 for 2013.

In fact, many commentators think 的 风险溢价 remains broadly neutral 和 hinged on 的 question whether or not 伊朗 flares-up. So is a 我们 $113-plus 布伦特 price merited? Not one jot! If you took such a price-level 在 face value, 的n yours would be a hugely optimistic view of 的 global economy, one that it does not merit on 的 basis of economic survey data.

 

In an interesting note, 奥莱汉森, Head of Commodity Strategy 在 盛宝银行, gently nudges observers in 的 direction of examining 的 put/call ratio. For those who don’t know, in layman terms 的 ratio measures mass psychology amongst market participants. It is 的 trading volume of put options divided by 的 trading volume of call options. （见上图礼貌 盛宝银行点击图片放大）

 

When 的 ratio is relatively high, this means 的 trading community or shall we say 的 majority in 的 trading community expect bearish trends. When 的 ratio is relatively low, 的y’重新走向多头道路。

 

汉森观察到： “The most popular traded strikes over 的 five trading days (to 一月 23) are evenly split between puts 和 calls. 的 most traded has been 的 六月 13 Call strike 115 (last 我们 $ 3.13 per barrel), 四月 13 Call 120 (US$0.61), 四月 13 Put 100 (US$0.56) 和 六月 13 Put 95 (US$1.32). 的 hedging of a potential geopolitical spike has been seen through 的 buying of 六月 13 Call 130, 持续 traded 在 我们 $0.54/barrel.”

 

的 Oilholic认为应该谨慎地指出，跟踪每周市场看跌期权和看涨期权的数量是一种衡量大多数交易者情绪的方法。总体而言，市场可以在正确的情况下证明大多数交易者是错误的。所以让’看事物如何发展。同时，芝商所集团在1月24日表示，NYMEX 3月布伦特原油期货曾升至下一个目标价112.90 / 113.29美元，并突破该水平，但本月未能突破’高的“未来几天信号弱点”。

 

的  group also announced a record in daily trading volume for its 纽约商品交易所 布伦特 futures contract as trading volumes, using 一月 18 as a cut-off point, jumped to 30,250 contracts; a 38% increase over 的 previous record of 21,997 set on 八月 8, 2012.

 

从原油市场到股票市场，埃克森美孚终于在1月25日重新成为了最有价值的公开交易公司！苹果在2011年从埃克森美孚（ExxonMobil）手中夺得头把交椅，后者自2005年以来一直持有该公司。您的公司确实没有两家公司的股份，而是基于公司业绩的绝对一致性，创造工作岗位的总体价值以及对公司的总体贡献。在全球经济中，有一天人们会投票选举石油巨头为一家电子产品制造商（抱歉，如果您认为Oilholic过于简化了这一论点，则为Apple粉丝）。

 

Switching tack to 的 macro picture, 惠誉 Ratings says 俄语 oil 生产 will probably 峰 in 的 next few years as gains from new oilfields are offset by falling output from brownfield sites. In a statement on 一月 22, 的 ratings agency said 生产 gains that 俄国 achieved over 的 持续 decade were mainly driven by intensive application of new technology, in particular horizontal drilling 和 hydraulic fracturing applied to Western Siberian brownfields on a massive scale.

 

"This allowed oil companies to tap previously unreachable reservoirs 和 dramatically reverse declining 生产 rates 在 的se fields, some of which have been producing oil for several decades. In addition, 俄国 saw successful launches of several new 生产 areas, including 俄罗斯石油公司's large Eastern Siberian Vankor field in 2009," 惠誉 notes.

 

However, 惠誉 says 的 biggest potential gains from new technology have now been mostly achieved. 的 latest 生产 figures from 的 俄语 Ministry of Energy show that total 原油 oil 生产 in 的 country increased by 1.3% in 2012 to 518 million tons. 俄语 refinery volumes increased by 4.5% to 266 million tons while exports dropped by 1% to 239 million tons. 俄语 oil 生产 has increased rapidly from a low of 303 million tons in 1996.

 

"Greenfields are located in inhospitable 和 remote places 和 projects 的refore require large amounts of capital. We believe oil prices would need to remain above 我们 $100 per barrel 和 的 俄语 government would need to provide 税 incentives for oil companies to invest in additional Eastern Siberian 生产," 惠誉 says.

 

一个显着的例外是里海架子，俄罗斯卢克石油’s second largest oil company, is progressing with its exploration 和 生产 programme. 的 ratings agency does see potential for more joint ventures between 俄语 和 international oil companies in exploring 的 俄语 continental shelf. No doubt, 的 needs must paradigm, which is very visible elsewhere in 的 ‘crude’ world, is applicable to 的 俄语s as well.

 

On 的 very same day as 惠誉 raised 的 possibility of 俄语 生产 达到顶峰, Peking announced a massive capital spending drive towards 页岩 exploration. 路透社报道 that 中国 intends to start its own 页岩 gale as 的 country’s Ministry of Land 和 Resources issued exploration rights for 19 页岩 prospection blocks to 16 firms. Local media suggests most of 的 exploration rights pertain to 页岩 gas exploration with 的 16 firms pledging 我们 $2 billion towards 的 move.

On 的 subject of 页岩 和 before 的 news arrived from 中国, IHS副主席Daniel Yergin 告诉 the 世界经济论坛  in 达沃斯 that major 非传统的 opportunities are being identified around 的 world. "Our research indicates that 的 页岩 resource base in 中国 may be larger than in 的 美国, 和 we note prospects elsewhere,"他加了。

 

但是，两者 的 油腻的 和 的 industry veteran 和 founder of IHS CERA agree that 的 circumstances which led to 和 promoted 的 development of 非传统的 sources in 的 美国 differ in important aspects from other parts of 的 world.

“仍处于起步阶段，我们相信还需要几年的时间，其他地区才会开始出现大量的非常规油气，” Yergin said. In fact, 的 我们 is benefitting in more ways than one if IHS’ new report Energy 和 的 新的全球工业格局：构造转变 可以相信。

In it, IHS forecasts that 的 "direct, indirect 和 induced effects" of 的 surge in nonconventional oil 和 gas extraction have already added 1.7 million jobs to 的 我们 jobs market with 3 million expected by 2020. Furthermore, 2012年，联邦和州政府的财政收入增加了620亿美元，预计到2020年将达到1,110亿美元。 （请参见上方的条形图 IHS. Click image to enlarge)

 

IHS还预测，2013年非欧佩克国家的石油供应量将达到每天110万桶–大于全球需求的增长– which has happened only four times since 1986. Leading this non-OPEC growth is indeed 的 surge in 非传统的 oil in 的 美国. 的 report does warn, however, that increases in non-OPEC supply elsewhere in 的 world could be subject to what has proved to be a recurrent “失望的历史。”

 

那’s all for 的 moment folks! Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

 

To follow 的 油腻的 on Twitter 点击这里.

 

©Gaurav Sharma2013。图：Brent Crude– Put/Call ratio © 盛宝银行, Photo: 俄语 jerry pump jacks © 卢克, Bar Chart: 我们 jobs growth projection in 的 非传统的 oil & gas sector © IHS 2013.

论有限资源与中国’s urges

我们不断辩论世界’快速消耗自然资源；从化石燃料到可耕种的土地供不应求。有些人通常认为 the quest for mineral wealth would be a fight to 的 death. Others, like 学术的 丹比萨·莫约（Dambisa Moyo） take a more pragmatic line on resource scarcity 和 rationally analyse what is 在 stake as she has done in her latest book 获胜者：中国’争夺资源，这对我们意味着什么.

那 的 Chinese are in town for more than just a slice of 的 自然资源 cake is well documented. Yet, instead of crying ‘wolf’, Moyo sequentially dissects 和 offers highly readable conjecture on how 中国 is leading 的 global race for 自然资源 be it via 的ir national oil companies, mergers, asset acquisitions, lobbying or political leverage on an international scale.

While cleverly watching out for 的ir interests, 的 author explains, in this book of just over 250 pages split by two parts containing 10 chapters, that 的 Chinese are neck-deep in a global resources rush but not necessarily 的 causative agents of perceived resource scarcity.

However, that 的y are 的 dominant players in a high stakes hunt for commodities from Africa to Latin America is unmistakable. For good measure 和 as to be expected of a book of this nature, 的 author has examined a variety of tangents hurled around in a resource security debate. 的 荷兰病, geopolitics, 风险溢价 in commodities prices, resource curse hypothesis have all been visited versus 的 Chinese quest by Moyo.

的 油腻的 found her arguments on 的 subject 既不危言耸听也不是民粹主义者。相反，她做了值得称赞的事情，它考察了我们如何在资源辩论，商品市场运作和我们看到的地缘政治转变中达到这一点，而不是使主题产生轰动。作者本人认为中国可能在争夺资源方面处于领先地位，但绝不是该镇唯一的饥饿之马。

总体而言，这是一本非常体面的书，鉴于其在当今的相关性和流行性，它值得一读’s world. 的 油腻的 would be happy recommend it to commodities traders, those interested in international affairs, geopolitics, financial news 和 resource economics. Finally, those who have made a career out of future projections would find it very well worth 的ir while to absorb it from cover to cover.

To follow 的 油腻的 on Twitter 点击这里. 

©Gaurav Sharma2013。照片：封面- Winner Take All © 艾伦巷 / 英国企鹅集团.

的 oil market in 2013: thoughts & riddles aplenty

Over a fortnight into 2013 和 a mere day away from 的 布伦特 forward month futures contract for 二月 expiring, 的 price is above 尼尔森 在 我们 $111.88 per barrel. 那’在一天之内在110美元到112美元之间往返之后。

As far as 的 early 一月 market sentiment goes, ICE Future Europe said hedge funds 和 other money managers raised bullish positions on 布伦特 原油 by 10,925 contracts for 的 week ended 一月 8; 的 highest in nine months. Net long positions in futures 和 options combined, outnumbered short positions by 150,036 lots in 的 week ended 一月 8, 的 highest level since 游行 27 和 的 fourth consecutive weekly advance.

On 的 other hand, bearish positions by producers, merchants, processors 和 users of 布伦特 outnumbered bullish positions by 175,478, down from 151,548 持续 week. It’s 的 biggest net-short position among this category of market participants since 八月 14. So where are we now 和 where will we be on 十二月 31, 2013?

Despite many market suggestions to 的 contrary, 巴克莱银行 continues to maintain a 2013 布伦特 forecast of 我们 $125. 的 readers of this blog asked 的 油腻的 why 和 well 的 油腻的 asked 巴克莱银行 why. To quote 的 chap yours truly spoke to, 的 reason for this is that 巴克莱银行’ analysts still see 的 中东 as “most likely”地缘政治催化剂。

“While 的re are other likely areas of interest for 的 oil market in 2013, in our view 的 main nexus for 的 transmission into oil prices is likely to be 的 中东, with 的 spiralling situations in 叙利亚 和 伊拉克 layered in on top of 的 core issue of 伊朗’的对外关系”巴克莱报告将添加。

宏观经济的不连续性将继续存在，但巴克莱银行’ analysts reckon that 的 catalyst 的y refer to will arrive 在 some point in 2013. Nailing 的ir colours to mast, well above 尼尔森, 的ir analysts conclude: “We are 的refore maintaining our 2013 布伦特 forecast of 我们 $125 per barrel, just as we have for 的 past 21 months since that forecast 原为initiated in 游行 2011.”

Agreed, 的 中东 will always give food for thought to 的 observers of geopolitical 风险 (or instability) premium. Though it is not as exact a science as analysts make it out to be. However, what if 的 Chinese economy tanks? To what extent will it act as a bearish counterweight? And what are 的 chances of such an event?

For starters, 的 油腻的 thinks 的 chances are 'slim-ish', but if you’d like to put a percentage figure to 的 element of chance 的n Michael Haigh, head of commodities research 在 法国兴业银行, thinks 的re is a 20% probability of a Chinese hard-landing in 2013. This 的n begs 的 question – are 的 原油 bulls buggered if 中国 tanks, 风险溢价 or no 风险溢价?

中国目前消耗的金属约为40％，主要农作物为23％，其中20％为基础金属。‘non-renewable’ energy resources. So in 的 event of a Chinese hard-landing, not only will 的 原油 bulls be buggered, 的y’ll also lose 的ir mojo as investor confidence will be battered.

Haigh认为，如果中国经济放缓，布伦特原油价格可能会暴跌至75美元。“油价下跌30％（按照布伦特现值计算，相当于约30美元）将最终推动GDP增长，从而拉高油价。如果由于中国的冲击价格下跌，欧佩克国家将减产。所以我们期望布伦特’因此，我们将其限制在75美元以内，” he adds.

Remember 印度, another major consumer, is not exactly in a happy place either. However, it is prudent to point out 的 current market projections suggest that barring an economic upheaval, both 印度n 和 Chinese consumption is expected to rise in 2013. Concurrently, 的 American separation from international 原油 markets will continue, with 我们 原油 oil 生产 tipped to rise by 的 largest amount on record this year, according to 的 EIA.

的 independent statistical arm of 的 我们 Department of Energy, estimates that 的 country’s 原油 oil 生产 would grow by 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2013 to 7.3 million bpd. While 的 rate of increase is seen slowing slightly in 2014 to 600,000 bpd, 的 total jump in 美国石油产量 to 7.9 million bpd would be up 23% from 的 6.4 million bpd pumped domestically in 2012.

的 latest forecast from 的 EIA is 的 first to include 2014 hailing 页岩! If 的 agency’s projections prove to be accurate, 我们 原油 oil 生产 would have jumped 在 a mind-boggling rate of 40% between 2011 和 2014.

的 EIA notes that rising output in North Dakota's 巴肯 formation 和 德州's Eagle Ford fields has made 我们 producers sharper 和 more productive. "的 learning curve in 的 巴肯 和 Eagle Ford fields, which is where 的 biggest part of this increase is coming from, has been pretty steep," a spokesperson said.

So it sees 的 WTI averaging 我们 $89 in 2013 和 我们 $91 a barrel in 2014. Curiously enough, in line with other market forecasts, bar that of 巴克莱银行, 的 EIA, which recently adopted 布伦特 as its new international benchmark, sees it fall marginally to around 我们 $105 in 2013 和 falling further to 我们 $99 a barrel in 2014.

On a related note, 惠誉 Ratings sees supply 和 demand pressures supportive of 布伦特 prices above 我们 $100 in 2013. “尽管欧洲需求疲软，但这将被新兴市场的增长所抵消。在供应方面，风险的平衡趋向于消极而非积极的冲击，对伊朗进行军事干预的可能性仍然是最明显的潜在破坏者，”它在最近的一份报告中说。

However, 的 ratings agency thinks 的re is enough spare capacity in 的 world to deal with 的 loss of 伊朗's roughly 2.8 million bpd of output. Although this would leave little spare capacity in 的 system were 的re to be another supply disruption. Let’s see how it all pans out; 的 油腻的 sees a 我们 $105 to 我们 $115 circa for 布伦特 over 2013.

Meanwhile, 的 spread between 布伦特 和 WTI has narrowed to a 4-month low after 的 restart of 的 Seaway pipeline 持续 week, which has been shut since 一月 2 in order to complete a major expansion. 的 expanded pipeline will not only reduce 的 bottleneck 在 Cushing, Oklahoma but reduce imports of waterborne 原油 as well. According to 彭博社, 的 原油 flow to 的 Gulf of Mexico, from Cushing, 的 delivery point for 的 纽约商品交易所 oil futures contract, rose to 400,000 bpd 持续 Friday from 150,000 bpd 在 的 time of 的 temporary closure.

On a closing note, 和 going back to 惠誉 Ratings, 的 agency believes that cheap 我们 页岩 gas is not a material threat to 的 Europe, 中东 和 Africa’s (EMEA) oil 和 gas sector in 2013. It 注意到 a lack of 我们 export infrastructure, a political desire for 的 我们 to be self-sufficient in gas, 和 的 prevalence of long term oil-based gas supply contracts in Europe all suggest 在 worst modest downward pressure on European gas prices in 的 short to medium term.

惠誉’s overall expectation for oil 和 gas revenues in 欧洲，中东和非洲 in 2013 is one of very modest growth, supported by continued, if weakened, global GDP expansion 和 potential supply shocks. 的 ratings agency anticipates that top line 欧洲，中东和非洲 oil 和 gas revenue growth in 2013 will be in 的 low single digits. 那里 remains a material – roughly 30% to 40% – chance that revenue will fall for 的 major 欧洲，中东和非洲 oil producers, but if so this fall is unlikely to be precipitous according to a 惠誉 spokesperson.

那’s all for 的 moment folks! One doubts if oil traders are as superstitious about 尼尔森 or 的 number 111 as English cricketers 和 Hindu priests are, so here’到2013年原油年度。继续阅读，继续阅读‘crude’!

To follow 的 油腻的 on Twitter 点击这里.

©Gaurav Sharma2013。照片：Holly Rig，圣塔芭芭拉，美国加利福尼亚©詹姆斯·福特（James Forte）/《国家地理》。

一部神秘的“超级少校”上的精彩档案

In 1999, 的 merger of Exxon 和 Mobil created what could be described as an oil & gas industry behemoth 和, using some financial metrics, perhaps also one of 的 most profitable among 的 international “supermajors”。尽管埃克森美孚是全球实体，但对于许多人来说仍然是一个谜。

 

Its sheer presence on 的 world stage has its admirers yet critics have labelled it as a polluter, a climate-change denier, a controversial lobbyist, a bully 和 more. For Pulitzer Prize winning author 史蒂夫·柯尔, 的re is more to it than meets 的 eye when it comes to 埃克森美孚 和 its financial performance which is more durable than others in 的 Fortune 500 list.

 

Coll的最新工作是减去一般性推论或进行大规模扑打的线性练习 – 私人帝国: 埃克森美孚 和 American Power – is a pragmatic book about a global brand which, in 的 author’s words, became 的 "most hated"  oil company in America after 的 埃克森·瓦尔迪兹（Exxon Valdez） oil spill off 的 coast of Alaska in 1989.

 

那 incident itself provides 不到700页的详细叙述的起点，分为两部分– 的 End of Easy Oil 和 的 Risk Cycle –包含28章。 Coll依靠他的新闻事业坚韧和详细的研究工作，包括400多次采访，解密的文件，法律和公司记录等，对他的这一问题进行了详细的描述。“Private Empire”并不会令人失望。

 

埃克森美孚 has its dogmas, fears, idiosyncrasies, pluses 和 minuses 和 的 author delves into 的se based on anecdotal as well as observed evidence. From an obsession with safety post 埃克森·瓦尔迪兹（Exxon Valdez） to 的 moving of its headquarters to Irving, 德州, from “the merger”坚持R.O.C.E（使用资本回报率）–Coll解决了所有问题。

 

作者认为，与流行的猜想会让您相信的是，埃克森美孚（ExxonMobil）并没有引起人们的注意，而是与政客们一起残酷地寻找无情的企业巨头’华盛顿特区传奇性的游说活动巧妙而积极地发挥了作用，以发挥最大作用。尽管该公司避免将其存在和事务公开化，但该公司却从新市场和全球商业中受益，美国军事霸权保护了整个世界。毕竟，埃克森美孚（ExxonMobil）在艰难处决时经常会在国会山（Capitol Hill）上赢得电力经纪人的青睐。

 

While 的 whole book is a thoroughly good read, for 的 油腻的, reading Coll’对埃克森美孚的描述’s grapples with "resource nationalism" in developing markets (as its oil output in developed jurisdictions started declining) 和 its management (or otherwise) of operations in inhospitable countries, were 的 two most interesting passages.

 

From Aceh in 印度尼西亚 to 的 尼日尔三角洲, from 的 Gulf of 几内亚 to 乍得, 埃克森美孚 found itself in alien territory 和 conflicts it had not seen before. But it strategized, adopted, called in favours 和 more often than not emerged with a result in its favour; if not immediately, 的n over a period of time, writes Coll.

 

每个传奇都需要一组角色，这个角色也不例外。一个人及其作者的写照脱颖而出。那 ’s Lee（“ Iron Ass”）雷蒙德，埃克森美孚’他在1993年至2005年间是一位无与伦比的老板。拥有化学工程博士学位，在自己的朋友中吹嘘Dick Cheney以及否认气候变化的历史，Raymond所有人都是一个令人敬畏的人物，’对他的描述并不令人失望。石油狂人有一个无声的批评 是它的边界闲话部分地出现，但有人认为该闲话在一个重要的叙述中将这些点连接起来。

 

总而言之， this blogger found 的 book to be a definitive one on 埃克森美孚 和 by default a glimpse into 的 wider ‘crude’ world, it’推销和交易。 The 油腻的 would be happy to recommend it to anyone interested in 的 oil business, its history, market dynamics 和 的 geopolitical climate it is inextricably linked with.

 

Those interested in business, finance 和 economics would also enjoy this book as would 的 mainstream non-fiction reader in search of a riveting real world account. Finally, it would also be well worth 的 while of students of financial journalism to read 和 learn from Coll’s craft.

 

©Gaurav Sharma2012。照片：Front Cover– 私人帝国: 埃克森美孚 和 American Power © 艾伦巷 / 英国企鹅集团.


普氏能源资讯在谈论地缘政治与炼油厂

继从 较早的对话 with contacts in 的 trading community about 的 direction of 的 布伦特 原油 price versus geopolitics, 的 油腻的 extended his queries to 的 普氏能源风险论坛, held in London earlier this week. At 的 event, 戴夫·恩斯伯格, global editorial director of oil coverage 在 普氏, summed-up 的 market mood as we near 的 final quarter of 2012 (see graphic above, 点击放大）。 “This year has been one of two realities, namely 的 dire economic climate 和 upward geopolitical 风险. H1 2012 saw anxiety about a war in 的 中东 和 H2 sees renewed fears of a demand slowdown,” he 告诉 delegates.

“石油价格有望脱离均值–但是那边呢到目前为止，它在15-20美元的范围内受到束缚和束缚，在今年中跌至90美元以下并升至115美元以上。伊朗与以色列冲突的威胁可能会拖欠美国，但这种威胁并没有消失。另一方面，欧洲衰退可能带来新的油价暴跌。此外，有人认为供不应求的情况并非事实，” Ernsberger added.

Over a break in proceedings, 的 油腻的 quizzed 的 普氏 man about 的 actual influence of 的 geopolitical or 不稳定溢价 on 的 price of 的 原油 stuff 和 market conjecture about it being broadly neutral for 2013.

“I think 的 current geopolitical dynamic is fairly well understood 在 this point. 的 big touching points which are 在 play for instance, but not limited to, 的 我们 -Iran-Israel issue 和 的 中国-Japan 和 Asia Pacific energy politics have been with us for a while. I feel it is hard to see how those geopolitical arenas will evolve significantly in 2013 because we are 在 a stalemate point. In a sense, if you look forward 的y should be neutral,” Ernsberger said.

但是，两者 of us were in agreement that one always needs to be careful about a geopolitical trigger as a single tiny flashpoint could offset 的 placidness. But from where Ernsberger 和 的 油腻的 sit at present – geopolitical influences are in a kind of suspended animation for next year. 的 普氏能源风险论坛 also 注意到 demand forecasts for 2012 have stabilised 和 that Chinese demand, on a standalone basis, had slowed considerably. As such, 的 price outlook for 2013 is overwhelmingly bearish.

欧洲危机的意外结果使我们进入了另一个有趣的领域-提炼。普氏能源资讯指出，欧盟范围内的经济衰退正在加速精炼厂的关闭。 它暗示，每天有3至500万桶的石油精炼能力正面临关闭的威胁，或者实际上最近已经关闭。此外，估计还需要约700万桶/日才能进行调整，以提高亚洲和中东的炼油效率。但是，关闭的企业短期内仍在提高炼油毛利，而该行业仍处于波动之中（参见右上方的图形， click to enlarge）。 Ernsberger also brought forth a very valid observation for 的 readers of this humble blog – 的 striking similarity between 的 survival (or vice versa) statistics within 的 refining 和 civil aviation sectors.

“炼油和航空是两个行业’竞相追逐! 那里 is so much competition in both 的se industries that basically whatever environment you are operating in –即使您在印度或中国经营– it’竞相追逐…Typically, what you’我们会发现，每家公司都将尽其所能继续经营下去，并且只有在资金用尽时才会退出。它’也是为什么炼油和航空业破产比我能想到的任何其他部门都要多的原因，” he said.

At 的 same forum, it 原为also a pleasure running into 文森特·卡明斯基博士， 前任 安然 executive who repeatedly raised strong objections to 的 financial practices 在 的 company prior to its scandal-ridden collapse in 2002. In 的 aftermath of 的 scandal, Dr. Kaminski 原为praised for being among 的 voices of reason 在 a company riddled with malpractices. (有关背景，请阅读Bethany McLean和Peter Elkind’s brilliant book – 的 Smartest Guys in 的 Room)

Dr. Kaminski, who is an 学术的 on 的 faculty of 休斯顿’s Rice University at present, 告诉 的 forum that by 的 time of its collapse 安然 had mutated from an energy company to one which traded practically everything 和 one which 原为not alone in devising trading strategies based on exploiting geographical constraints.

“Energy markets have evolved over 的 持续 20 years into an integrated global system. Markets for different physical commodities form what can be called a tightly coupled system. While market participants learn 和 adjust 的ir behaviour in order to survive 和 prosper in a changing world, 的 system itself evolves 和 remains far removed from a stable equilibrium 在 any point in time,” he added.

Dr. Kaminski also dwelt on 的 页岩气 revolution in 的 我们 which 原为decades in 的 making but transformed 的 country's energy landscape upon fruition leading to 的 availability of natural gas in abundance 和 a dip in gas price-contracts (see graphic on 的 left, 点击放大）。 “As 我们 生产 sky-rocketed, 常规 wisdom about 的 possibility of 液化天然气 shortages barely five years ago 原为turned on its head. By 四月 2012 we even noted a 低于2美元/百万英热单位 前月结算 on 的 纽约商品交易所,” he added.

Later in 的 afternoon, Dr. Kaminski 告诉 的 油腻的 that 我们 液化天然气 import terminals currently being prepped to export gas in wake of 的 页岩 bonanza could one day be sending tanker-loads to Europe in direct competition with Qatar 和 俄国.

“On 的 flipside for 的 我们 consumer, 的 moment a viable gas export market is established for 我们 gas, 的 impact on 的 country’s domestic gas market would be a bullish one. 那 is 的 nature of market forces,” he added.

当被问及欧洲页岩勘探的前景时–最值得注意的是在波兰，乌克兰，瑞典和英国–卡明斯基博士说他是一个‘realist’ rather than a ‘sceptic’. “在美国发生的事情并非一overnight而就。技术，立法便利和公众意愿–所有这些都发挥了作用，并逐渐下降。我不认为它会在短期内在欧洲复制，而且肯定不会像某些人希望的那样快，” he concluded.

Just as 的 油腻的 原为winding down from a discussion on 页岩 with Dr. Kaminski, it seems 的 英国 机械工程师学会 (IMechE) 原为talking up 的 economic benefits of a British 页岩大风! In a 政策声明 circulated to parliamentarians, 的 IMechE said 页岩 gas was ‘no silver bullet’ for 英国 能源安全 but will provide long-term economic benefits in 的 shape of thousands of jobs.

Tim Fox博士，能源与环境主管 IMechE 和 lead author of 的 页岩气政策声明， 说过，“Shale gas has 的 potential to give some of 的 regions hit hardest by 的 economic downturn a much-needed economic boost. 的 engineering jobs created will also help 的 Government’s efforts to rebalance 的 英国’s skewed economy.”

However, Dr. Fox added that 页岩 gas "is unlikely to have a major impact on energy prices 和 的 possibility that 的 英国 might ever achieve self-sufficiency in gas is remote." 

IMechE projects that 4,200 jobs would be created per year over a ten-year drill programme. 的 engineering skills developed could 的n be sold abroad, just as 的 oil 和 gas experience built up in North Sea oilfields is now being sold across 的 world. Well, we shall see but that’s all for 的 moment folks! Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

©Gaurav Sharma 2012年。图1：与普伦特约会的布伦特–2011年1月至2012年8月©普氏能源资讯2012年9月。图2：国际裂解利润快照©普氏/特纳·梅森&Co. 2012年9月。图3：美国天然气期货合约©美国德克萨斯州赖斯大学Vincent Kaminski博士/彭博社。