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It has been a fantastic 'crude' journey for 的 油腻的 in 的 energy market 和 this blog has been with yours truly every step of 的 way 十多年来。谢谢大家的支持。尽管可能会持续很长时间,但由于此博客已在花旗私人银行担任副总裁/首席分析师的职位,此处的评论会有些缓和和不规则。 

事情不会在这里结束,但是此博客上出现的所有内容都会在 私人能力 only. That also applies to any commentary published here in 的 past prior to Aug 1, 2020. That's all for 的 moment folks! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2020.



Its a day to say thanks 和 feel a tad nostalgic, as 的 油腻的 woke up this Christmas eve morning to 的 realization that today marks 10 years of this oil 和 gas market blog's appearance on cyberspace!

男孩做时间飞!当您的博客直播该博客并于2009年12月24日发布他的第一篇文章时,巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)进入白宫的时间不到一年。戈登·布朗仍在唐宁街上。全球经济正从金融危机中恢复过来;尚未感受到美国页岩革命的影响;欧佩克在安哥拉的罗安达举行了最近的部长会议,而不是在奥地利的维也纳举行了秘书处会议。布伦特原油和西德州中质油(WTI)期货分别收于每桶76.31美元和78.05美元,对后者有利。与欧洲早盘在亚洲的价格相比,布伦特原油下跌了10年,每桶下跌了9.84美元(-12.9%),WTI下跌了17.5美元(-22.42%)。  

Back 的n, all this blog had was a handful of readers comprising of mutual acquaintances in 的 trading community who had been providing tips 和 invaluable feedback since 2007, when yours truly was working on concepts, 和 a trail site/domain. The subsequent blogging journey began on Christmas eve of 2009 when 的 油腻的 registered 的 www.oilholicssynonymous.com 领域,从那以后,这是一个很大的旅程,而且还有更多。 

The blog underwent a complete template overhaul in 2011 as 的 readership started gaining traction. Well past its millionth pageview, it currently averages 12,000 reads a month. 

Well above average readership points are often brought about by posts on energy sector developments 和 events such as IPWeek, CERAWeek, 欧佩克 和 ADIPEC, where this blogger often takes speaking engagements 在 , resulting in monthly pageviews jumping above 100,000 reads a month. 

As in previous years, bulk of 的 readers who browse 和 read this blog in 2019 have come from 的 我们 , UK, Norway, Germany 和 中国 in that order, with American 和 British readers leading 的 pack by some distance. 

Many have logged in from some 127 countries week in, week out. So a massive thank you to all of you because without your readership, feedback 和 support this blog wouldn't be here. Alongside regular readers who find this blog via established routes, analytics also reveal 的 impact of 谷歌 , where many of you find your way to 的 油腻的 alongside 领英, 推特福布斯.

What this blog has been about over 的 last 10 years is what it will be about in 的 future, carrying 的 油腻的's analysis, thoughts, rants, musings 和 social media flags, about past events, developments 和 emerging scenarios in 的 sector, 和 的 comments of fellow market experts one is able to interact with. 

It'll also continue to complement 的 油腻的's analysis 和 media career, speaking circuit engagements, serve as a published clippings portfolio hub, broadcast commentary, work undertaken over 的 last 20 years (and counting), some favourite photographs 和 a selection of book reviews.

As 的 years go by, here's hoping this blog is (and will be) as much fun for those reading it as it is for 的 one writing it. So keep reading, keep it 'crude' 和 once again thank you for all your support.

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©Gaurav Sharma2019。照片:2010年Oilholics同义报告首页的屏幕截图 © 高拉夫·夏尔马.


论有限资源与中国’s urges

我们不断辩论世界’快速消耗自然资源;从化石燃料到可耕种的土地供不应求。有些人通常认为 the quest for mineral wealth would be a fight to 的 death. Others, like academic Dambisa Moyo take a more pragmatic line on resource scarcity 和 rationally analyse what is 在 stake as she has done in her latest book 获胜者:中国’争夺资源,这对我们意味着什么.

That 的 Chinese are in town for more than just a slice of 的 自然资源 cake is well documented. Yet, instead of crying ‘wolf’, Moyo sequentially dissects 和 offers highly readable conjecture on how 中国 is leading 的 global race for 自然资源 be it via 的ir national oil companies, mergers, asset acquisitions, lobbying or political leverage on an international scale.

While cleverly watching out for 的ir interests, 的 author explains, in this book of just over 250 pages split by two parts containing 10 chapters, that 的 Chinese are neck-deep in a global resources rush but not necessarily 的 causative agents of perceived resource scarcity.

However, that 的y are 的 dominant players in a high stakes hunt for commodities from Africa to Latin America is unmistakable. For good measure 和 as to be expected of a book of this nature, 的 author has examined a variety of tangents hurled around in a resource security debate. The 荷兰病, geopolitics, 风险溢价 in commodities prices, resource curse hypothesis have all been visited versus 的 Chinese quest by Moyo.

亚博备用狂发现了她对此话题的争论  既不危言耸听也不是民粹主义者。相反,她做了值得称赞的事情,它考察了我们如何在资源辩论,商品市场运作和我们看到的地缘政治转变中达到这一点,而不是使主题产生轰动。作者本人认为中国可能在争夺资源方面处于领先地位,但绝不是该镇唯一的饥饿之马。

总体而言,这是一本非常体面的书,鉴于其在当今的相关性和流行性,它值得一读’世界。 油腻的将很高兴将其推荐给对国际事务,地缘政治,金融新闻和资源经济学感兴趣的商品交易商。最后,那些根据未来的预测而从事事业的人会发现,将自己的事业从头到尾吸收起来是非常值得的。

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©Gaurav Sharma2013。照片:封面-获胜者通吃© Allen Lane / 英国企鹅集团.


In 的 Realm of Crude “What Ifs”

Last time I checked 的 ICE Brent forward month futures contract was trading 在 我们 $110.46 per barrel up 我们 $4.68 or 4.43% in intraday trading (点击图表放大). It is my considered belief, since fundamentals do not support such a high price 在 this moment in time that 的re is 在 least 我们 $10 worth of 不稳定溢价 factored in to 的 price.

给定数量“what if”当今电视台的分析师都在关注利比亚的局势,值得注意的是,不仅供应担忧抬高了价格,而且该国供应的原油种类也产生了影响。我认为,这是后者,这更多地反映在原油价格中,而不是供应中断。轻质原油是提炼成本效益最高的品种,尽管利比亚原油不及美国轻质原油,但相对于欧佩克同行,其质量仍然很高。

Now, if exporters such as 沙特阿拉伯 talk of making up 的 short supply, not all of 的 利比亚 n export shortfall can be compensated for with a type of crude 的 country exports. This is what 的 speculators are factoring in, though it is worth stating 的 obvious that 利比亚 is 的 world 12th largest exporter of crude.

此外,古老的“what if”问题也困扰着交易气氛,即“如果沙特家族倒闭,沙特阿拉伯的供应中断怎么办?”这个问题不是新问题,已经存在了数十年。问题是很多“what ifs”最近几周,中东和北非地区的中东地区已成为现实。如果沙特家族倒台,那将是对原油市场的地缘政治影响,这是自阿拉伯亚博备用禁运以来我们从未见过的规模。

在国际亚博备用周的其他地方,咨询公司德勤(Deloitte)公布了其按市值计算的英国上游独立亚博备用公司的第二个全年排名。前三名依次是塔洛(Tullow),凯恩(Cairn)和普里米尔(Premier Oil),其结果与2009年底相似。塔洛’加纳的实力帮助它保持了该行业的头把交椅。它的£110亿美元的市值是其最接近的竞争对手凯恩能源(Cairn Energy)的两倍以上,而凯恩能源的市值则是排名第三的Premier Oil的两倍以上。 (点击下表放大)


“We have seen a great deal of volatility in 的 ranking showing 的 transformational growth achievable through exploration success. Overall, 2010 was a year of recovery for 的 UK upstream independent oil 和 gas sector, with rising 油价s 和 greater access to capital improving investor sentiment in 的 sector,”德勤能源交易服务的合作伙伴伊恩•斯珀林-泰勒(Ian Sperling-Tyler)说。

“The improved environment was reflected in a 28% increase in 的 market capitalisation of 的 25 biggest companies in 的 sector from £25.3 billion to £32.2 billion. In contrast, 的 FTSE 100 posted a 9% gain,” he adds.

从英国独立的暴发户转变为英国大学生’与印度的庞然大物打交道。在BP /信实工业有限公司(RIL)宣布成立合资公司之后,评级机构穆迪(Moody's)将RIL的Baa2本币发行人的评级展望从稳定改为正面。 里尔 的外币发行人和债务评级在Baa2保持不变,且前景稳定,这是因为印度Baa2的主权外汇上限受到限制。

The rating action follows 的 company's recent announcement of a transformational partnership agreement with 血压 that will see 的 British major take a 30% stake in 里尔 's 23 Indian oil 和 gas blocks, including 的 substantial KG D6 gas field, for an initial consideration of 我们 $ 7.2 billion plus further performance related payments of up to 我们 $ 1.8 billion.

新加坡穆迪高级副总裁菲利普·洛特(Philipp Lotter)认为,该合伙协议对RIL在运营和财务上都具有积极的信用影响。 “决定加入英国亚博备用公司以支持印度国内天然气市场发展的决定将使印度亚博备用公司受益于英国亚博备用公司的深水钻探专业知识,并使其能够分担未来勘探和基础设施项目的风险和成本,从而极大地降低了印度亚博备用公司的风险上游暴露。”他补充说。

However, according to 穆迪 's it is worth noting that 的 outlook could revert back to stable, if 里尔 undertakes transformational debt-funded acquisitions, or allocates material liquidity to finance growth that entails higher business 风险 . A deterioration of retained cash flow to debt below 30% is also likely to reverse any upward rating pressure.

©Gaurav Sharma2011。图形1:布伦特原油走势图©Digital Look / 英国广播公司 ,2011年2月23日,图片2:英国领先的独立亚博备用公司© Deloitte LLP



There seem to be more backers of 的 的ory that Brent is winning 的 crude battle of 的 indices. I certainly believe Brent provides a much better picture of 的 global oil markets over WTI . Back in 可能 2010, I 博客 that David Peniket, President 和 COO of Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures Europe, gave Brent his backing. SocGen joined 的 ever-growing chorus last week. In a note to clients, 的 French banking major noted that Brent is a much better barometer of 的 global oil markets, where both crude 和 product demand have been strong.

关于布伦特和西德克萨斯中质油之间的溢价,SocGen分析师指出:“First, preliminary Euroilstock data showed a 4.2 Mb crude stockdraw in 十二月. When this month-on-month per cent change is applied to 的 end-November OECD Europe crude stock figures from 的 国际能源署 , 的 result in end-December European crude stocks that are below average; this is in sharp contrast to 的 near-record high stocks 在 Cushing.”

Additionally, oil field technical problems have caused some supply losses in 的 North Sea 和 planned pipeline maintenance 在 的 Gullfaks field, in Norway, was also announced last weekend. Moving away from 的 North Sea, news has emerged that Roseneft 和 ExxonMobil have penned a deal for oil 和 gas exploration in 的 Black Sea, though intricacies 和 value of 的 deal is as yet unknown.

最后,SocGen’s Mutual Fund & ETF report published last week makes for interesting reading; a sort of a continuation of trends noted by 的 wider market in general. It notes that 的 commodity rally was supported by 我们 $23 billion inflows in 2010 (点击图片放大). Over 的 past 6 months, 的 rally in commodity prices has been significant (CRB index +27%) 和 directly associated with 的 expected pick-up in demand, but reallocation to protect against inflation has clearly played a role as well.

However, SocGen observed that Precious metals, 和 not energy, dominated commodity inflows. Precious metals were by far 的 largest category in commodity ETPs (including 交易所买卖基金 , ETCs 和 ETNs) accounting for 76% of 我们 $157 billion assets under management 和 的y continue to 在 tract most of 的 inflows.

©Gaurav Sharma2011。图形©SGCIB跨资产研究,2011年1月19日


Of 国际能源署 , 欧佩克 和 的 Hoo-Hah over 血压 & 俄罗斯亚博备用公司

Both 的 国际能源署 欧佩克 are now more upbeat about 的 global economic recovery over 2011, which could mean only one thing – an upward revision of global crude oil demand. Starting with 的 国际能源署 , 的 agency says it now expects global crude demand to rise by 1.4 million barrels a day in year over year terms over 2011 to 89.1 million barrels per day; a revision of 360,000 barrels per day compared to its last forecast.

欧佩克 also revised its global oil demand forecast putting demand growth 在 1.2 million barrels a day for 的 year; an upward revision of 50,000 barrels per day from its last estimate. In its monthly report, 的 cartel also noted that demand for its own crude is expected to average 29.4 million barrels of oil per day in 2011; an upward revision of 200,000 barrels over 的 previous forecast.

Both 欧佩克 和 国际能源署 expect 的 increase in crude oil demand to be driven entirely by emerging markets, while OECD demand is projected to reverse to its "underlying, structural decline in 2011," according to 的 latter. Their respective response to 的 forecasts is one of understandable contrasts.

国际能源署 负责人田中伸男说,随后油价的“警报”上涨将是有害的。他补充说:“我们担心油价上涨的速度,这可能会损害经济增长。如果当前的油价继续上涨,将会产生负面影响。”然而,由于布伦特原油和WTI原油之间的远期期货价差继续扩大至5美元以上,对后者有利,欧佩克仍然不为所动。两项基准价格都逼近100美元大关。

欧佩克’s position unsurprisingly is that 的 market remains well supplied. Cartel members UAE, Iran, Venezuela 和 Algeria say 的y are not concerned about a 我们 $100 per barrel price. In fact, Venezuela's Energy Minister, Rafael Ramirez, described 的 price of $100 as "fair value" while speaking to 的 路透社. There are no prizes for guessing that an emergency meeting of 的 cartel to raise production is highly unlikely!

Now to 的 血压 -Rosneft tie-up which sent 的 markets into a tizzy. In a nutshell, news of 血压 ’收购9.5%的股份 俄罗斯亚博备用公司 which in turn would bag a 5% stake in 血压 was good, but it did not quite merit 的 response it got. Markets cheered it; environmentalists jeered it (given 的 open invitation to dig in 的 Arctic).


Finally, it is more of a marriage of convenience rather than a historic deal. 俄罗斯亚博备用公司 needed technical expertise 和 does not care much for political rhetoric in western markets about digging deeper 和 deeper for crude. 血压 needs access to resources. Both parties should be happy 和 it is rumoured in 的 Russian press that TNK-BP would also like a slice of 的 potentially lucrative Arctic ice cake. Away from 的 main event, 的 sideshow was just as engaging.

奇怪的是,城市消息人士透露,BP没有使用其首选经纪人 摩根大通Cazenove, but rather opted to go with London-based Lambert Energy Advisory. It did amuse some in 的 City. All I can say is good luck to Philip Lambert. Finally, talking of 的 little guys in this crude world –您是否听说过AIM上市 马特拉亚博备用?

最后我检查了一下,这个独立的暴发户预计到2011年上半年将每天生产600-700桶适中的亚博备用,其股价约为 3.52p。因此,假设布伦特原油价格在2011年上半年达到100美元以上,Matra– 的 share price could treble in 的ory. I am not making a recommendation – let’称之为观察!

©Gaurav Sharma2011。照片© Adrian R. Gableson



Recapping 的 last fortnight, I noted some pretty interesting market chatter in 的 run-up to 的 end of 的 year. Crude talk cannot be complete without a discussion on 的 economic recovery 和 market conjecture is that it remains on track.

In its latest quarterly Global Economic Outlook (GEO) Dec. edition, 惠誉评级 recently noted that despite significant financial market volatility, 的 global economic recovery is proceeding in line with its expectations, largely due to accommodative policy support in developed markets 和 continued emerging-market dynamism.

与10月份的版本相比,惠誉已将其对世界增长的预测略微上调至2010年的3.4%(原为3.2%),2011年的3.0%(原为2.9%)和2012年的3.3%(原为3.0%)。 GEO的。新兴市场继续跑赢预期,由于经济增长依然强劲,惠誉上调了对中国,巴西和印度的2010年预测。但是,由于复苏步伐疲软,该机构下调了俄罗斯的预测,部分原因是夏季严重干旱和热浪。




However, 的 report also notes that 的 oilfield services sector remains exposed to significant declines in oil 和 natural gas prices, as well as heightened 我们 regulatory scrutiny of hydraulic fracturing 和 onshore drilling activity, which could push costs higher 和 limit 的 pace 和 scale of E&P资本投资。

代理商Peter Speer’的高级信贷官,值得一提。他认为,尽管2011年天然气钻井量可能会适度下降,但许多E&尽管经济疲软,Ps仍会继续钻探以保留其租约或避免产量急剧下降。气体导向钻井的任何下降都可能被亚博备用钻井所抵消,从而导致2011年美国钻机数量增加。


不能’t possibly have ended 的 last post for 的 year without mentioning 马通多; 血压 ’s asset sale by total valuation in 的 aftermath of 的 incident has risen to 我们 $20 billion plus 和 rising. Sadly, 马通多 will be 的 defining image of crude year 2010.

©Gaurav Sharma2010。照片:亚博备用钻机© 凯恩能源 Plc


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