
Both 的
国际能源署 和
欧佩克 are now more upbeat about 的 global economic recovery over 2011, which could mean only one thing – an upward revision of global crude oil demand. Starting with 的 国际能源署 , 的 agency says it now expects global crude demand to rise by 1.4 million barrels a day in year over year terms over 2011 to 89.1 million barrels per day; a revision of 360,000 barrels per day compared to its last forecast.
欧佩克 also revised its global oil demand forecast putting demand growth 在 1.2 million barrels a day for 的 year; an upward revision of 50,000 barrels per day from its last estimate. In its monthly report, 的 cartel also noted that demand for its own crude is expected to average 29.4 million barrels of oil per day in 2011; an upward revision of 200,000 barrels over 的 previous forecast.
Both 欧佩克 和 国际能源署 expect 的 increase in crude oil demand to be driven entirely by emerging markets, while OECD demand is projected to reverse to its "underlying, structural decline in 2011," according to 的 latter. Their respective response to 的 forecasts is one of understandable contrasts.
国际能源署 负责人田中伸男说,随后油价的“警报”上涨将是有害的。他补充说:“我们担心油价上涨的速度,这可能会损害经济增长。如果当前的油价继续上涨,将会产生负面影响。”然而,由于布伦特原油和WTI原油之间的远期期货价差继续扩大至5美元以上,对后者有利,欧佩克仍然不为所动。两项基准价格都逼近100美元大关。
欧佩克’s position unsurprisingly is that 的 market remains well supplied. Cartel members UAE, Iran, Venezuela 和 Algeria say 的y are not concerned about a 我们 $100 per barrel price. In fact, Venezuela's Energy Minister, Rafael Ramirez, described 的 price of $100 as "fair value" while speaking to 的
路透社. There are no prizes for guessing that an emergency meeting of 的 cartel to raise production is highly unlikely!
Now to 的 血压 -Rosneft tie-up which sent 的 markets into a tizzy. In a nutshell, news of 血压 ’收购9.5%的股份
俄罗斯亚博备用公司 which in turn would bag a 5% stake in 血压 was good, but it did not quite merit 的 response it got. Markets cheered it; environmentalists jeered it (given 的 open invitation to dig in 的 Arctic).
其余的叙述有点野蛮。首先,同意这是一项可靠的交易,但考虑到俄罗斯政府拥有一家公司75%的股份,–我不确定这将对英国有帮助还是不利’的亚博备用安全。当然,陪审团应该仍然参与其中。其次,这绝不意味着英国亚博备用就一些市场评论家认为最近的事件而拒绝了美国市场。
Finally, it is more of a marriage of convenience rather than a historic deal. 俄罗斯亚博备用公司 needed technical expertise 和 does not care much for political rhetoric in western markets about digging deeper 和 deeper for crude. 血压 needs access to resources. Both parties should be happy 和 it is rumoured in 的 Russian press that
TNK-BP would also like a slice of 的 potentially lucrative Arctic ice cake. Away from 的 main event, 的 sideshow was just as engaging.
奇怪的是,城市消息人士透露,BP没有使用其首选经纪人
摩根大通Cazenove, but rather opted to go with London-based Lambert Energy Advisory. It did amuse some in 的 City. All I can say is good luck to Philip Lambert. Finally, talking of 的 little guys in this crude world –您是否听说过AIM上市
马特拉亚博备用?
最后我检查了一下,这个独立的暴发户预计到2011年上半年将每天生产600-700桶适中的亚博备用,其股价约为
3.52p。因此,假设布伦特原油价格在2011年上半年达到100美元以上,Matra– 的 share price could treble in 的ory. I am not making a recommendation – let’称之为观察!
©Gaurav Sharma2011。照片© Adrian R. Gableson