缺少‘crude’中国股票的结论

再过一个星期 布伦特 and WTI futures trading lower，对中国的担忧’t new, continue to be brandished about. 什么 的 油腻的 does not understand is 的 overt obsession in certain quarters with 的 direction of Chinese equities.

的 country’的工厂大门价格和采购经理’ indices haven’t exactly impressed over 的 last few months. Yet, somehow a stock market decline spooks most despite both 的 mechanism as well as 的 market itself lacking maturity. It is also constantly prone to government interference and crackdowns on trading firms.

On one level 的 anxiety is understandable; 的 上证综合 Index – lurking just around 3,080-level 在 的 time of writing this blog post – has lost nearly 39.5% since its 峰 in mid-June. However, it does not tell 的 full story of 中国’s economy and 的 correction it is currently undergoing, let alone its ambiguous connect with 的 country’s oil imports.

的 sign of any mature stock market –例如伦敦或法兰克福– is that 的 total tradable value of equities listed is 100% (or above) of 的 country’国内生产总值。在上海’s case, 的 figure is more in 的 region of 34%, suggesting it still has some way to go.

A mere 2.1% of Chinese equities are under foreign ownership 在 的 moment. Many of 的 country’包括石油和天然气公司在内的主要公司都在香港或纽约进行了双重上市，这虽然不表示缺乏国内信心，但更多地表明了影响，使二次上市不在国内。

资本经济学的首席亚洲经济学家马克·威廉姆斯（Mark Williams）感到，对中国的恐慌已经过头了。“The debacle in 中国’股市直接告诉我们关于中国正在发生的事情’经济。一年前开始的价格上涨是投机行为，而不是基本面的任何改善。糟糕的数据加上中国的政策无所作为可能会触发近期的股市下跌，但更大的前景是，我们正在目睹股市泡沫不可避免地内爆，” he said.

Furthermore, current turmoil does not provide any direction whatsoever on what 的 needs of 的 economy would be in terms of oil imports. Apart from a blip in 可能, 中国 has continued to import oil 在 的 rate of 7 million barrels per day for much of this year. 那’更不用说，所有这些都是国内消费。 

Some of it also goes towards strategic storage, data on which is rarely published and a substantial chunk goes towards 的 country’专注于出口的精炼厂。中国仍然是主要 成品的区域出口商.

Admittedly, much of 的 commodities market should be worried if not panicking. Over 的 years, 中国 consumed approximately half of 的 world’铁矿石，48％的铝，46％的锌和45％的铜。这样的消费水平不可能永远维持下去，而且似乎正在瓦解。 

威廉姆斯指出：“在某种程度上，中国’s 最近 pattern of weakness in property construction and heavy industry set against strength in services is a positive sign that rebalancing towards a more sustainable growth model is underway. Policymakers in 中国, unlike 的ir counterparts in many developed economies, still have room to loosen policy substantially further.”

而中国’需求下降令人担忧， 长期供过于求 in 的 case of a whole host of commodities – including oil – cannot be ignored either. 的 current commodities market downturn in general, and 的 石油价格下跌 in particular, remains a story of oversupply not necessarily a lack of demand.

Another more important worry, as 的 油腻的 noted 通过上的一列 福布斯, is 的 possibility of a 美国加息. 的 Federal Reserve will raise interest rates; it might not be soon (i.e. this month) but a move is on 的 horizon. This will not only weigh on commodities priced in dollars, but has other implications for emerging markets with dollar denominated debt 在 state, individual and institutional levels; something 的y haven’他们考虑了一段时间。

In summation, 的re is a lot to worry about for 石油市场s, rather than fret about where 的 上证综合 is 要么 isn’t going. 那’所有人都在眼前！继续阅读，继续阅读‘crude’!

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©Gaurav Sharma2015。照片：上海证券交易所，中国上海©Gaurav Sharma，2014年8月。

Grappling with volatility in a barmy 原油 market

的 石油市场 is not making a whole lot of sense 在 present to a whole lot of people; 的 油腻的 is admittedly one of 的m. However, wherever you apportion 的 blame for 的 current market volatility, do not take 的 convenient route of laying it all 在 中国’的家门口。那太简单了！

可以肯定地说，这个博客天堂’t seen anything quite as barmy over 的 last decade, not even during 的 post Lehman Brothers kerfuffle as a 我们 financial crisis morphed into a global one. 那 was in 的 main a crisis of demand, what’首先，首先是供过于求。 

正如一个 最近 福布斯 柱, 的 oversupply situation –不仅用于石油，还用于大量商品– merits a deeper examination. 的 week before we saw oil benchmarks plummet after 的 so-called ‘Black Monday’ (August 24) only for it recover by Friday and end higher on a week-over-week basis compared to 的 previous week’s close (见上图, 点击放大)

This was followed on Monday, 八月 31 by some hefty gains of over 8% for both 布伦特 and WTI. Yet 在 的 time of writing this blog post some 48 hours later, 布伦特 had shed over 10% and 的 WTI over 7% on Tuesday but again gained 1.72% and 1.39% respectively on Wednesday.

的 reasons for driving prices down were about as fickle as 的y were for driving 的m up and subsequently pulling 的m down again, and so it goes. When 的 我们 Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Monday that 的 country’石油产量在4月份达到了每天960万桶/日的峰值，然后在接下来的两个月里下降了300,000桶/日。赞成短呼的人看到了一个真正去做的窗口。

的y also drew in some vague 欧佩克 comment （关于 wanting to support 的 price in tandem with other producers), knowing full well that 的 phoney rally would correct. 的 very next day, as 的 官方 purchasing managers’ index for Chinese manufacturing activity fell to 49.7 in 八月, from 的 previous month’阅读50，开始一些严重的获利了结。

低于50的数字表示收缩，而高于50的水平则表示扩张，贸易商找到了压低价格的完美借口。根据美国的滞后数据，在严重供过于求的市场中降低产量，将价格调高与将价格推低至基于中国的价格一样有效。’s manufacturing PMI data indicative of a minor contraction in activity. 的 油腻的 reckons it wasn’关于紧张的市场和赤裸裸的机会主义；市场供过于求的代名词。

So 在 的 风险 of sounding like a broken record, this blogger again points out – oversupply to 的 tune of 1.1-1.3 million bpd has not altered. 中国’s import level has largely averaged 7 million bpd for much of 的 year so far, except 可能. 

Yours truly is still sticking to 的 line of an end of year 布伦特 price of $60 per barrel with a gradual supply correction on 的 cards over 的 remaining months of 2015 with an upside 风险. Chances of 伊朗 imminently flooding 的 market are about as likely as 我们 页岩 oil witnessing a dramatic decline to an extent some in 欧佩克 continue to dream off.

But to get an outside perspective, analysts 在 HSBC also agree it may take some time for 的 market to rebalance fully. “The current price levels look completely unsustainable to us and a combination of 欧佩克 economics and marginal costs of 生产 point to longer-term prices being significantly higher,” 的y wrote in a note to clients.

的 bank is now assuming a 布伦特 average of $55.4 per barrel in 2015, rising to $60 in 2016 and $70-80 for 2017/18. 巴克莱银行 and 德意志银行 analysts also have broadly similar forecasts, as does 穆迪’出于评分目的。

的 ratings agency sees a target price of $75 achieved by 的 turn of 的 decade, but for yours truly that moment is bound to arrive sooner. In 的 meantime, make daily calls based on 的 newsflow in this barmy market. 那’所有人都在眼前！继续阅读，继续阅读crude!

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©Gaurav Sharma2015。图表：石油基准2015年1月2日至8月28日收盘©Gaurav Sharma，2015年8月。

那 need for speed: Meet 上海’s Maglev

After years of wanting to, months of planning, waiting, visa applications and what have you, 的 油腻的 has finally made it to 中国, via 上海’庞大的浦东国际机场。

甚至在进入市区之前，您都会有一个广阔，发展，进步的感觉，而且一个国家处于超速行驶状态，尽管中国的经济数据最近并没有令人欣喜。它’所有人都渴望完成工作，这是’特别是一个项目–被誉为世界的上海磁悬浮列车’的第一条商业化磁悬浮线。

的 Americans, Brits, Germans, Swiss and 日本ese, have all flirted with 磁悬浮. Birmingham and Berlin even had low-speed pilot maglev trains before being abandoned owing to costs and other permutations. 那’中国不同的地方– 的y wanted it done, wanted to spend towards that need for speed and 的 end result is splendid.

的 油腻的 got from Pudong International to 龙阳路 Metro Station, close to 上海’s financial district some 30.5km from 的 airport, in 8 minutes and 10 seconds 在 a speed of 301km/hr (看到正确的), according to 的 speed indicator in one’s carriage.

Had yours truly travelled earlier in 的 afternoon, when 的 Maglev does 431 km/hr, it would have taken 7 minutes, a 吉尼斯世界纪录 land speed for public transit carriage. A non-commercial scientifically monitored journey on 十一月 12, 2003 saw 的 maglev hit 501km/hr. Now beat that!

的 need for this speed does not require 的 ‘crude’ stuff, but it doesn’也不便宜。它’s almost certainly why 的 Brits and Germans abandoned projects after initial efforts. 那 sort of thing however doesn’t hold 的 Chinese back. This high-speed thrill ride cost 我们$1.33 billion to build entering commercial service in 一月 2004.

While yours truly was indeed enjoying 的 thrill ride, one got an acute sense that 的re were more thrill seekers onboard than regular commuters. 的re’s a reason for that; unlike 的 油腻的, not everyone likes to get off an airplane head straight to 的 financial district!

因此，您仍然必须在龙阳路的上海地铁上行驶才能走得更远，在任何情况下都可以这样做，因为地铁实际上是到达浦东国际机场的。根据当地标准，门票价格昂贵，为人民币85元（约合13.80美元，£8.50）往返票和一日通行证，往返80元人民币，单程50元人民币。尽管这位博主觉得值得为他的经历服务，但大约30％的平均马车占用率表明，上海普通居民并不愿意’t in 的 main.

尽管如此，’没什么能把磁悬浮推倒的。您’如果您比较希思罗特快列车和乘坐伦敦地铁的更便宜选择，将得到类似的入住动态’从机场的皮卡迪利线。除了上海磁悬浮列车，’s not an express – it’一个超酷的超表达。在使用了67个机场（并正在计数）和许多铁路/海港枢纽的公共交通和公共交通系统后，Oilholic可以放心地说，这种经历无可匹敌。甚至没有 TGV 要么 新干线.

的 initial train set was built by a joint venture of 西门子 and 蒂森克虏伯. Since 的n, under a limited technology transfer deal, 的 first Chinese built four-car train has also gone into service. 

尽管如此，上海磁悬浮列车仍是一个示范项目。成本和其他因素推迟了向上海以外地区的扩张。多数分析家和当地媒体评论员认为，在可预见的未来，浦东-龙阳路磁悬浮线将是永久的。如果中国人认为磁悬浮列车在可行性和可负担性方面变得困难，那肯定不会’对于我们其他人来说，机会不多。

如果说’s 的 case, this blogger is privileged to have ridden on 的 “fastest ground transport toll in 的 present world” to quote 的 Guinness Book. And whatever 的 economics, it’到镇上很漂亮的火车。

正确，足以凝视和欣赏一个公共交通系统，’s unlikely to take-off in Europe and time to get down to 的 dynamics of 的 oil & gas market. 那's all for 的 moment from 上海 folks! Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

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©Gaurav Sharma2014。照片1（点击放大）：上海磁悬浮列车。图2：车厢内部以301 km / hr的速度行驶。图3：上海磁悬浮列车的吉尼斯纪录证书。图4：上海磁悬浮列车到达龙阳路地铁站。图5：中国上海SMT博物馆的磁悬浮技术插图©Gaurav Sharma，2014年9月。

原油价格：叙利亚难题和看跌趋势

As 的 immediate threat of a 我们-led campaign against 叙利亚 recedes, some semblance of decidedly bearish calm has returned to 的 石油市场s. 的 last two weeks have seen steady declines in benchmark prices as 的 阿萨德 regime agreed to a 俄国n-led initiative aimed 在 opening up 的 叙利亚n chemical weapons arsenal to international inspection. Jury is still out on whether it will work, but that’足以使石油市场多头受到抑制。

 

Supply-side analysts also took comfort from 的 improving situation in terms of Libyan 生产. However, an appreciable caveat needs to be taken into account here. Libya’s oil 生产 has recovered, but only to about 40% of its pre-war rate of 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd), and is currently averaging no more than 620,000 bpd, according to 的 government.

 

A further lull in violence in Egypt has helped calm markets as well. Much of 的 market fear in this context, as 的 油腻的 noted from Oman a few weeks ago, was invariably linked to 的 potential for disruption to tanker traffic through 的 Suez Canal which sees 800,000 barrels of 原油 and 1.5 million barrels of petroleum distillate products pass each day through its narrow confines.

 

而且，当时’只是在一定程度上仍然是人们关注的一个领域，这是通过运河之间的红海和地中海之间的交通。干扰也可能影响苏伊士至地中海的输油管道，该输油管道将再输送170万桶/日。除了叙利亚，利比亚和埃及，伊朗在与西方的核对峙中多年来首次向美国发送和解票据。

 

Factoring in all of this, 的 风险溢价 has retreated. Hence, we are seeing are near six-week lows as far as 的 11月布伦特远期期货合约到期. 的re is room for further correction even though winter is around 的 corner. 在相关说明中， 的 WTI’与布伦特原油的折价目前平均约为每桶5美元，但仍’t, and perhaps never will be, sufficiently disconnected from 的 global geopolitical equation.

 

Shame really, for in what could be construed further price positive news for American consumers, 的 我们 domestic 原油 生产 rose 1.1% to 7.83 million bpd for 的 week that ended 九月 13. 那’根据EIA，这是1989年以来的最高水平。至少是为了什么’的价值，这导致路易斯安那轻质甜油（LLS）相对于WTI的溢价下跌；目前接近2010年3月以来的最低水平（每桶约1.15美元）。

 

Moving away from pricing matters, 的 油腻的 最近ly had 的 chance to browse through a 惠誉 Ratings report published last month which seemed to indicate that increasing state control of 俄国n oil 生产 will make it harder for private companies to compete with State-controlled 俄罗斯石油公司. Many commentators already suspect that.

 

俄罗斯石油公司今年初收购TNK-BP has given 的 company a dominant 37% share of total 俄国n 原油 生产. It implies that 的 state now controls almost half of 的 country's 原油 output and 45% of domestic oil refining.

 

惠誉 analyst 德米特里·马林申科（Dmitri Marinchenko） feels rising state control is positive for 俄罗斯石油公司's credit profile but moderately negative for independent oil producers. “后者将发现很难竞争新的E&牌照，州立银行的资金和其他支持，” he adds.

 

In fact, 的 favouring of state companies for new licences is already evident on 的 Arctic shelf, where non-state companies are excluded by law. However, most 俄国n private oil producers have a rather high reserve life, and Marinchenko expects 的m to remain strong operationally and financially even if 的ir activities are limited to onshore 常规 fields.

 

“We also expect domestic competition in 的 natural gas sector to increase as Novatek and 俄罗斯石油公司 take on Gazprom in 的 market to supply large customers such as utilities and industrial users. 的se emerging gas suppliers are able to supply gas 在 lower prices than 的 fully regulated Gazprom. But this intensified competition should not be a significant blow to Gazprom as it generates most of its profit from exports to Europe, where it has a monopoly.”

 

的re is a possibility that this monopoly could be partly lifted due to political pressure from 俄罗斯石油公司 and Novatek. But even if this happens, Marinchenko thinks it is highly likely that Gazprom would retain 的 monopoly on 管道 exports –这将继续支持其信用评级。

 

Continuing with 的 region, 惠誉 also said in another report that 的 生产 of 的 first batch of 的 原油 stuff from 的 卡沙甘项目 earlier this month is positive for 哈萨克斯坦 and 卡兹·穆奈瓦斯. 的 latter has a 16.8% stake in 的 project.

 

埃尼， 北里海经营公司，正在开发中 卡沙根, has said that in 的 initial 2013-14 phase, output will grow to 180,000 bpd, compared with current output from Kazakh oilfields of 1.6 million bpd. 卡沙根 has estimated reserves of 35 billion barrels, of which 11 billion barrels are considered as recoverable.

 

的 onset of 生产 is one reason 惠誉 expects 哈萨克斯坦's economic growth rate to recover after a slight slowdown in 2012. Meanwhile, 卡兹·穆奈瓦斯 expects 的 卡沙根 field to make a material contribution to its EBITDA and cash flow from next year, 的 agency adds.

 

Increased oil exports from 卡沙根 will also support 哈萨克斯坦's current account surplus, which had been stagnating thanks to lower oil prices. However, 惠誉 reckons foreign direct investment may decline as 的 first round of capital investment into 的 field slows.

 

什么's more, 中国石油天然气公司 成为的股东 卡沙根 本月早些时候拥有8.3％的股份。现在，这无疑将帮助哈萨克斯坦增加对中国的石油供应，而目前中国的石油供应受到管道能力的限制。关注此空间！那’所有人都在眼前！继续阅读，继续阅读‘crude’!

 

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©Gaurav Sharma2013。照片： 俄罗斯石油生产基地 © 卢克

布伦特’s ‘nine-month high’, Aubrey, 血压 & more

Oh boy, what one round of positive data, especially from 中国, does to 的 石油市场! 的 布伦特 forward month futures contract for 游行 is within touching distance of a 我们$120 per barrel price and 的 bulls are out in force. Last Friday’s intraday price of 我们$119.17 was a 九个月高; a 布伦特 price level last seen in 可能 2012. 的 cause –而且你之前听说过这种组合–来自中国的健康经济数据，加上叙利亚动荡和伊朗核僵局。

 

的 油腻的 has said so before，然后再说一遍– 的 last two factors touted by market commentators have been broadly neutral in terms of 的ir impact for 的 last six months. It is 的 relatively good macroeconomic news from 中国 which is principally behind 的 rally that nearly saw 的 布伦特 price breach 的 我们$120 level.

 

的 bull-chatter is already in full force. In a note to clients, 高盛 advised 的m last week to maintain a net long position in 的 S&P GSCI 布伦特 Crude Total Return Index. 的 investment bank believes this rally is "less driven by supply shocks and instead by improving demand."

 

"Global 石油需求 has surprised to 的 upside in 最近 months, consistent with 的 pick-up in economic activity," 的 bank adds in an investment note. Really? This soon – on one set of data? One thing is for sure, with many Asian markets shut for 的 Chinese New Year, 在 least trading volumes will be lighter this week.

 

Nonetheless, 的 ‘nine-month high’ also crept into 的 headline inflation debate in 的 UK where 的 CPI rate has been flat 在 2.7% since 十月, but commentators reckon 的 oil spike may nudge it higher. Additionally, 的 布伦特-WTI spread is seen widening yet again towards 的 我们$25 per barrel mark. On a related note, Enterprise Product Partners said that capacity on its 海路管道 to 的 我们 Gulf of Mexico coast from Cushing, Oklahoma 它将保持有限，直到今年晚些时候。

 

Moving away from pricing, news arrived end-January that 的 inimitable 奥布里·麦克伦登（Aubrey McClendon） will soon vacate 的 office of 的 CEO of 切萨皮克 Energy. It followed intense scrutiny over 的 last nine months 关于五月份浮出水面的启示， 关于他为公司井中的个人股份提供资金的借款。

 

当麦克莱登于1月29日宣布离职时，该公司’董事会重申，迄今为止，尚未发现首席执行官有不当行为的证据。 McClendon将继续任职 直到找到一个继任者，应在4月1日之前 – 的 day he is set to retire. 的 announcement marks a sad and unspectacular exit for 的 great pioneer who co-founded and led 切萨皮克 Energy from its 1989 inception in Oklahoma City and has been a colourful character in 的 oil and gas business ever since.

 

什么ever 的 circumstances of his exit may be, let us not forget that before 的 so called ‘shale gale’在吹，是麦克伦登和他的同僚首先提出 their faith in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. 的 rest, and 我们’天然气供应几乎自给自足是历史。

Meanwhile, 血压 has been in 的 原油 news for a number of reasons. First off, an additional 我们$34 billion in claims filed against 血压 by four 我们 states earlier this month have provided yet another hurdle for 的 oil giant to overcome as it continues to address 的 aftermath of 的 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill.

 

However, 惠誉 Ratings not believe that 的 new round of claims is a game changer. In fact 的 agency does not think that any final settlement is likely to be enough to interfere with 血压 's positive medium term credit trajectory. 的 latest claims come on top of 的 我们$58 billion maximum liability calculated by 惠誉. If realised, 的 cost of 的 spill could rise up to as much as 我们$92 billion.

 

的 agency said 的 new claims should be put in 的 context of an asset sale programme that has raised 我们$38 billion. “这不包括今年出售TNK-BP的额外120亿美元现金–我们的分析有上行空间，因为我们没有给予BP TNK-BP股份任何收益。截至2012年12月31日，BP的资产负债表上有190亿美元的现金。在此之前，BP已经支付了380亿美元的和解金或代管金，” it added.

 

Away from 的 spill, 的 company announced that it had started 生产 from new facilities 在 its Valhall field in 的 Norwegian sector of 的 北海 on 一月 26 with an aim of producing up to 65,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 的 second half of 2013. Valhall's previous output averaged about 42,000 barrels per day (bpd), feeding 原油 into 的 Ekofisk oil stream.

 

Earlier this month, 血压 also said that both consortiums vying to link Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz gas field in 的 Caspian Sea, into Western European markets have an equal chance of success. 血压 operates 的 field which was developed in a consortium partnership with Statoil, Total, Azerbaijan’的Socar，LukAgip（埃尼，LUKoil的合资企业）等。

 

A decision, whether to pipe gas from 的 field into Austria via 的 proposed Nabucco (West) 管道 要么 into 意大利 through 的 rival Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) project, is expected to be made by mid-2013. Speaking in 维也纳, Al Cook, head of 血压 's Azeri operations, said, “I genuinely believe both 管道s 在 的 moment have an equal chance. 的re's certainly no clear-cut answer 在 的 moment.”

 

血压 is aiming for 的 first gas from Shah Deniz II to be delivered to existing customer 火鸡 in 2018. Early 2019 is 的 more likely date for 的 first Azeri gas to reach Western Europe via this major development often touted as one which would reduce European dependence on 俄国 for its energy supplies.

 

的 Shah Deniz consortium owns equity options in both 的 管道 projects and Cook did not rule out that both Nabucco (West) and TAP could be built in 的 long term. Specifically, 血压 's own equity options, which are part of 的 Shah Deniz stakes, are pegged 在 20% in TAP and 14% in Nabucco. Cook said 血压 was not “actively seeking”增加在任何一个项目中的股份–确实是一个明智的选择。

 

2月4日， 血压 表示其2012年第四季度净利润, adjusted for non-operating items, currency and accounting effects, fell to 我们$3.98 billion from 我们$4.98 billion recorded over 的 corresponding quarter last year. Moving away from 血压 , 荷兰皇家壳牌 posted a 6% dip in 2012 profits to 我们$27 billion on 的 back of weak oil and gas prices and lower exploration and 生产 (E&P) margins.

 

的 Anglo-Dutch oil major reported Q4 earnings of 我们$7.3 billion, a rise of 13%. However, on an adjusted current cost of supply basis and one-off asset sales, 的 profit came in 在 我们$5.58 billion. In particular, 贝壳’s E&P business saw profits dip 14% to 我们$4.4 billion, notwithstanding an actual 3% increase in oil and gas 生产 levels. However, 的 company did record stronger refining margins.

 

Ironically, while acknowledging stronger refining margins, 贝壳 confirmed its decision to close most of its Harburg refinery units in Hamburg, Germany. 的 permanent shutdown of much of its 100,000 bpd refinery is expected next month in line with completing a deal made with Swedish refiner Nynas in 2011.

 

最后，在典型的意大利混乱中，该国几名石油高管正在接受调查， a probe 涉嫌与向阿尔及利亚塞佩姆授予石油服务合同有关的贿赂罪。 埃尼拥有欧洲Saipem 43％的股份’最大的石油服务提供商。尽管公司本身否认有不法行为，但上周五扩大了调查范围，将埃尼首席执行​​官保罗·斯卡罗尼（Paolo Scaroni）包括在内。

 

的 CEO’s home and office 被作为探针的一部分进行搜索。然而，埃尼站在他们的男人身边，并表示将与检察官充分合作’在米兰的办公室。到目前为止，Pietro Franco Tali（Saipem的首席执行官）和Eni’的首席财务官亚历山德罗·贝尼尼（曾任塞班’直到2008年担任首席财务官）一直是最引人注目的高管人员，他们因调查而辞职。观看这个原始空间！那’所有人都在眼前！继续阅读，继续阅读‘crude’!

 

To follow 的 油腻的 on Twitter 点击这里.

 

©Gaurav Sharma2013。照片1：亚洲石油钻井平台©凯恩能源。照片2： Gas extraction site © 切萨皮克 Energy.

放置n’ calls, 俄国 ‘peaking’ & Peking’s 页岩

Oil market volatility continues unabated indicative of 的 barmy nature of 的 world we live in. On 一月 25, 的 布伦特 forward month futures contract spiked above 我们$113. If 的 day's intraday price of 我们$113.46 is used as a cut-off point, 的n it has risen by 4.3% since Christmas Eve. If you ask what has changed in a month? Well not much! 的 阿尔及利亚恐怖袭击, despite 的 tragic nature of events, does not fundamentally alter 的 geopolitical 风险溢价 for 2013.

In fact, many commentators think 的 风险溢价 remains broadly neutral and hinged on 的 question whether 要么 not 伊朗 flares-up. So is a 我们$113-plus 布伦特 price merited? Not one jot! If you took such a price-level 在 face value, 的n yours would be a hugely 乐观的 view of 的 global economy, one that it does not merit on 的 basis of economic survey data.

 

In an interesting note, 奥莱汉森, Head of Commodity Strategy 在 盛宝银行, gently nudges observers in 的 direction of examining 的 put/call ratio. For those who don’t know, in layman terms 的 ratio measures mass psychology amongst market participants. It is 的 trading volume of put options divided by 的 trading volume of call options. （见上图礼貌 盛宝银行点击图片放大）

 

When 的 ratio is relatively high, this means 的 trading community 要么 shall we say 的 majority in 的 trading community expect bearish trends. When 的 ratio is relatively low, 的y’重新走向多头道路。

 

汉森观察到： “The most popular traded strikes over 的 five trading days (to 一月 23) are evenly split between puts and calls. 的 most traded has been 的 六月 13 Call strike 115 (last 我们$ 3.13 per barrel), 四月 13 Call 120 (US$0.61), 四月 13 Put 100 (US$0.56) and 六月 13 Put 95 (US$1.32). 的 hedging of a potential geopolitical spike has been seen through 的 buying of 六月 13 Call 130, last traded 在 我们$0.54/barrel.”

 

的 Oilholic认为应该谨慎地指出，跟踪每周市场看跌期权和看涨期权的数量是一种衡量大多数交易者情绪的方法。总体而言，市场可以在正确的情况下证明大多数交易者是错误的。所以让’看事物如何发展。同时，芝商所集团在1月24日表示，NYMEX 3月布伦特原油期货曾升至下一个目标价112.90 / 113.29美元，并突破该水平，但本月未能突破’高的“未来几天信号弱点”。

 

的  group also announced a record in daily trading volume for its 纽约商品交易所 布伦特 futures contract as trading volumes, using 一月 18 as a cut-off point, jumped to 30,250 contracts; a 38% increase over 的 previous record of 21,997 set on 八月 8, 2012.

 

从原油市场到股票市场，埃克森美孚终于在1月25日重新成为了最有价值的公开交易公司！苹果在2011年从埃克森美孚（ExxonMobil）手中夺得头把交椅，后者自2005年以来一直持有该公司。您的公司确实没有两家公司的股份，而是基于公司业绩的绝对一致性，创造工作岗位的总体价值以及对公司的总体贡献。在全球经济中，有一天人们会投票选举石油巨头为一家电子产品制造商（抱歉，如果您认为Oilholic过于简化了这一论点，则为Apple粉丝）。

 

Switching tack to 的 macro picture, 惠誉 Ratings says 俄国n oil 生产 will probably 峰 in 的 next few years as gains from new oilfields are offset by falling output from brownfield sites. In a statement on 一月 22, 的 ratings agency said 生产 gains that 俄国 achieved over 的 last decade were mainly driven by intensive application of new technology, in particular horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing applied to Western Siberian brownfields on a massive scale.

 

"This allowed oil companies to tap previously unreachable reservoirs and dramatically reverse declining 生产 rates 在 的se fields, some of which have been producing oil for several decades. In addition, 俄国 saw successful launches of several new 生产 areas, including 俄罗斯石油公司's large Eastern Siberian Vankor field in 2009," 惠誉 notes.

 

However, 惠誉 says 的 biggest potential gains from new technology have now been mostly achieved. 的 latest 生产 figures from 的 俄国n Ministry of Energy show that total 原油 oil 生产 in 的 country increased by 1.3% in 2012 to 518 million tons. 俄国n refinery volumes increased by 4.5% to 266 million tons while exports dropped by 1% to 239 million tons. 俄国n oil 生产 has increased rapidly from a low of 303 million tons in 1996.

 

"Greenfields are located in inhospitable and remote places and projects 的refore require large amounts of capital. We believe oil prices would need to remain above 我们$100 per barrel and 的 俄国n government would need to provide tax incentives for oil companies to invest in additional Eastern Siberian 生产," 惠誉 says.

 

一个显着的例外是里海架子，俄罗斯卢克石油’s second largest oil company, is progressing with its exploration and 生产 programme. 的 ratings agency does see potential for more joint ventures between 俄国n and international oil companies in exploring 的 俄国n continental shelf. No doubt, 的 needs must paradigm, which is very visible elsewhere in 的 ‘crude’世界，也适用于俄罗斯人。

 

On 的 very same day as 惠誉 raised 的 possibility of 俄国n 生产 达到顶峰, Peking announced a massive capital spending drive towards 页岩 exploration. 路透社报道 that 中国 intends to start its own 页岩大风 as 的 country’s Ministry of Land and Resources issued exploration rights for 19 页岩 prospection blocks to 16 firms. Local media suggests most of 的 exploration rights pertain to 页岩 gas exploration with 的 16 firms pledging 我们$2 billion towards 的 move.

On 的 subject of 页岩 and before 的 news arrived from 中国, IHS副主席Daniel Yergin 告诉 the 世界经济论坛  in 达沃斯 that major unconventional opportunities are being identified around 的 world. "Our research indicates that 的 页岩 resource base in 中国 may be larger than in 的 我们A, and we note prospects elsewhere," he added.

 

但是，两者 的 油腻的 and 的 industry veteran and founder of IHS CERA agree that 的 circumstances which led to and promoted 的 development of unconventional sources in 的 我们A differ in important aspects from other parts of 的 world.

“仍处于起步阶段，我们相信还需要几年的时间，其他地区才会开始出现大量的非常规油气，” Yergin said. In fact, 的 我们 is benefitting in more ways than one if IHS’ new report Energy and 的 新的全球工业格局：构造转变 可以相信。

In it, IHS forecasts that 的 "direct, indirect and induced effects" of 的 surge in nonconventional oil and gas extraction have already added 1.7 million jobs to 的 我们 jobs market with 3 million expected by 2020. Furthermore, 2012年，联邦和州政府的财政收入增加了620亿美元，预计到2020年将达到1,110亿美元。 （请参见上方的条形图 IHS. Click image to enlarge)

 

IHS还预测，2013年非欧佩克国家的石油供应量将达到每天110万桶–大于全球需求的增长– which has happened only four times since 1986. Leading this non-OPEC growth is indeed 的 surge in unconventional oil in 的 我们A. 的 report does warn, however, that increases in non-OPEC supply elsewhere in 的 world could be subject to what has proved to be a recurrent “失望的历史。”

 

那’所有人都在眼前！继续阅读，继续阅读‘crude’!

 

To follow 的 油腻的 on Twitter 点击这里.

 

©Gaurav Sharma2013。图：Brent Crude– Put/Call ratio ©盛宝银行，照片：俄罗斯杰里泵千斤顶© 卢克, Bar Chart: 我们 jobs growth projection in 的 unconventional oil & gas sector © IHS 2013.

论有限资源与中国’s urges

我们不断辩论世界’快速消耗自然资源；从化石燃料到可耕种的土地供不应求。有些人通常认为 the quest for mineral wealth would be a fight to 的 death. Others, like academic 丹比萨·莫约（Dambisa Moyo） take a more pragmatic line on resource scarcity and rationally analyse what is 在 stake as she has done in her latest book 获胜者：中国’争夺资源，这对我们意味着什么.

那 的 Chinese are in town for more than just a slice of 的 自然资源 cake is well documented. Yet, instead of crying ‘wolf’, Moyo sequentially dissects and offers highly readable conjecture on how 中国 is leading 的 global race for 自然资源 be it via 的ir national oil companies, mergers, asset acquisitions, lobbying 要么 political leverage on an international scale.

While cleverly watching out for 的ir interests, 的 author explains, in this book of just over 250 pages split by two parts containing 10 chapters, that 的 Chinese are neck-deep in a global resources rush but not necessarily 的 causative agents of perceived resource scarcity.

However, that 的y are 的 dominant players in a high stakes hunt for commodities from Africa to Latin America is unmistakable. For good measure and as to be expected of a book of this nature, 的 author has examined a variety of tangents hurled around in a resource security debate. 的 荷兰病, geopolitics, 风险溢价 in commodities prices, resource curse hypothesis have all been visited versus 的 Chinese quest by Moyo.

的 油腻的 found her arguments on 的 subject 既不危言耸听也不是民粹主义者。相反，她做了值得称赞的事情，它考察了我们如何在资源辩论，商品市场运作和我们看到的地缘政治转变中达到这一点，而不是使主题产生轰动。作者本人认为中国可能在争夺资源方面处于领先地位，但绝不是该镇唯一的饥饿之马。

总体而言，这是一本非常体面的书，鉴于其在当今的相关性和流行性，它值得一读’s world. 的 油腻的 would be happy recommend it to commodities traders, those interested in international affairs, geopolitics, financial news and resource economics. Finally, those who have made a career out of future projections would find it very well worth 的ir while to absorb it from cover to cover.

To follow 的 油腻的 on Twitter 点击这里. 

©Gaurav Sharma2013。照片：封面-获胜者通吃© Allen Lane / 英国企鹅集团.

的 石油市场 in 2013: thoughts & riddles aplenty

Over a fortnight into 2013 and a mere day away from 的 布伦特 forward month futures contract for 二月 expiring, 的 price is above 尼尔森 每桶111.88美元。那’在一天之内在110美元到112美元之间往返之后。

As far as 的 early 一月 market sentiment goes, ICE Future Europe said hedge funds and other money managers raised bullish positions on 布伦特 原油 by 10,925 contracts for 的 week ended 一月 8; 的 highest in nine months. Net long positions in futures and options combined, outnumbered short positions by 150,036 lots in 的 week ended 一月 8, 的 highest level since 游行 27 and 的 fourth consecutive weekly advance.

On 的 other hand, bearish positions by producers, merchants, processors and users of 布伦特 outnumbered bullish positions by 175,478, down from 151,548 last week. It’s 的 biggest net-short position among this category of market participants since 八月 14. So where are we now and where will we be on 十二月 31, 2013?

Despite many market suggestions to 的 contrary, 巴克莱银行 continues to maintain a 2013 布伦特 forecast of 我们$125. 的 readers of this blog asked 的 油腻的 why and well 的 油腻的 asked 巴克莱银行 why. To quote 的 chap yours truly spoke to, 的 reason for this is that 巴克莱银行’ analysts still see 的 Middle East as “most likely”地缘政治催化剂。

“While 的re are other likely areas of interest for 的 石油市场 in 2013, in our view 的 main nexus for 的 transmission into oil prices is likely to be 的 Middle East, with 的 spiralling situations in 叙利亚 and 伊拉克 layered in on top of 的 core issue of 伊朗’的对外关系”巴克莱报告将添加。

宏观经济的不连续性将继续存在，但巴克莱银行’ analysts reckon that 的 catalyst 的y refer to will arrive 在 some point in 2013. Nailing 的ir colours to mast, well above 尼尔森, 的ir analysts conclude: “We are 的refore maintaining our 2013 布伦特 forecast of 我们$125 per barrel, just as we have for 的 past 21 months since that forecast was initiated in 游行 2011.”

Agreed, 的 Middle East will always give food for thought to 的 observers of geopolitical 风险 (or instability) premium. Though it is not as exact a science as analysts make it out to be. However, what if 的 Chinese economy tanks? To what extent will it act as a bearish counterweight? And what are 的 chances of such an event?

For starters, 的 油腻的 thinks 的 chances are 'slim-ish', but if you’d like to put a percentage figure to 的 element of chance 的n Michael Haigh, head of commodities research 在 法国兴业银行, thinks 的re is a 20% probability of a Chinese hard-landing in 2013. This 的n begs 的 question – are 的 原油 bulls buggered if 中国 tanks, 风险溢价 要么 no 风险溢价?

中国目前消耗的金属约为40％，主要农作物为23％，其中20％为基础金属。‘non-renewable’ energy resources. So in 的 event of a Chinese hard-landing, not only will 的 原油 bulls be buggered, 的y’ll also lose 的ir mojo as investor confidence will be battered.

Haigh认为，如果中国经济放缓，布伦特原油价格可能会暴跌至75美元。“油价下跌30％（按照布伦特现值计算，相当于约30美元）将最终推动GDP增长，从而拉高油价。如果由于中国的冲击价格下跌，欧佩克国家将减产。所以我们期望布伦特’因此，我们将其限制在75美元以内，” he adds.

Remember 印度, another major consumer, is not exactly in a happy place either. However, it is prudent to point out 的 current market projections suggest that barring an economic upheaval, both 印度n and Chinese consumption is expected to rise in 2013. Concurrently, 的 American separation from international 原油 markets will continue, with 我们 原油 oil 生产 tipped to rise by 的 largest amount on record this year, according to 的 EIA.

的 independent statistical arm of 的 我们 Department of Energy, estimates that 的 country’s 原油 oil 生产 would grow by 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2013 to 7.3 million bpd. While 的 rate of increase is seen slowing slightly in 2014 to 600,000 bpd, 的 total jump in 我们 oil 生产 to 7.9 million bpd would be up 23% from 的 6.4 million bpd pumped domestically in 2012.

的 latest forecast from 的 EIA is 的 first to include 2014 hailing 页岩! If 的 agency’s projections prove to be accurate, 我们 原油 oil 生产 would have jumped 在 a mind-boggling rate of 40% between 2011 and 2014.

的 EIA notes that rising output in North Dakota's 巴肯 formation and Texas's Eagle Ford fields has made 我们 producers sharper and more productive. "的 learning curve in 的 巴肯 and Eagle Ford fields, which is where 的 biggest part of this increase is coming from, has been pretty steep," a spokesperson said.

So it sees 的 WTI averaging 我们$89 in 2013 and 我们$91 a barrel in 2014. Curiously enough, in line with other market forecasts, bar that of 巴克莱银行, 的 EIA, which 最近ly adopted 布伦特 as its new international benchmark, sees it fall marginally to around 我们$105 in 2013 and falling further to 我们$99 a barrel in 2014.

在相关说明中， 惠誉 Ratings sees supply and demand pressures supportive of 布伦特 prices above 我们$100 in 2013. “尽管欧洲需求疲软，但这将被新兴市场的增长所抵消。在供应方面，风险的平衡趋向于消极而非积极的冲击，对伊朗进行军事干预的可能性仍然是最明显的潜在破坏者，”它在最近的一份报告中说。

However, 的 ratings agency thinks 的re is enough spare capacity in 的 world to deal with 的 loss of 伊朗's roughly 2.8 million bpd of output. Although this would leave little spare capacity in 的 system were 的re to be another supply disruption. Let’s see how it all pans out; 的 油腻的 sees a 我们$105 to 我们$115 circa for 布伦特 over 2013.

Meanwhile, 的 spread between 布伦特 and WTI has narrowed to a 4-month low after 的 restart of 的 海路管道 last week, which has been shut since 一月 2 in 要么der to complete a major expansion. 的 expanded 管道 will not only reduce 的 bottleneck 在 Cushing, Oklahoma but reduce imports of waterborne 原油 as well. According to 彭博社, 的 原油 flow to 的 Gulf of Mexico, from Cushing, 的 delivery point for 的 纽约商品交易所 oil futures contract, rose to 400,000 bpd last Friday from 150,000 bpd 在 的 time of 的 temporary closure.

On a closing note, and going back to 惠誉 Ratings, 的 agency believes that cheap 我们 页岩 gas is not a material threat to 的 Europe, Middle East and Africa’（EMEA）的石油和天然气部门在2013年的发展。它指出，美国缺乏出口基础设施，政治上要求美国实现天然气自给自足，并且在欧洲普遍存在基于石油的长期天然气供应合同暗示在短期至中期，欧洲天然气价格将承受适度的下行压力。

惠誉’s overall expectation for oil and gas revenues in 欧洲，中东和非洲 in 2013 is one of very 谦虚 growth, supported by continued, if weakened, global GDP expansion and potential supply shocks. 的 ratings agency anticipates that top line 欧洲，中东和非洲 oil and gas revenue growth in 2013 will be in 的 low single digits. 的re remains a material – roughly 30% to 40% – chance that revenue will fall for 的 major 欧洲，中东和非洲 oil producers, but if so this fall is unlikely to be precipitous according to a 惠誉 spokesperson.

那’s all for 的 moment folks! One doubts if oil traders are as superstitious about 尼尔森 要么 的 number 111 as English cricketers and Hindu priests are, so here’到2013年原油年度。继续阅读，继续阅读‘crude’!

To follow 的 油腻的 on Twitter 点击这里.

©Gaurav Sharma2013。照片：Holly Rig，圣塔芭芭拉，美国加利福尼亚©詹姆斯·福特（James Forte）/《国家地理》。

Why 伊朗 is miffed 在 (some in) 欧佩克?

的 talking is over, 的 ministers have left 的 building and 的 欧佩克 quota ‘stays’ where it is. However, one 欧佩克 member – 伊朗 –离开维也纳比以往任何时候都更加沮丧和忧虑。为什么？

Well, if you subscribe to 的 school of thought that 欧佩克 is a cartel, 的n it ought to come to 的 aid of a fellow member being clobbered from all directions by international sanctions over its nuclear ambitions. Sadly for 伊朗, 欧佩克 no longer does, as 的 country has become a taboo subject in 维也纳.

Even 的 Islamic Republic’委内瑞拉唐等同情者’t offer overt vocal support in front of 的 world’s press. Compounding 的 伊朗ians’ sense of frustration about 的ir 原油 exports being embargoed is a belief, not entirely without basis, that 的 Saudis have enthusiastically (or rather "gleefully" according to one delegate) stepped in to fill 的 void 要么 perceived void in 的 global 原油 石油市场.

伊朗的问题越来越严重，在某些情况下非常明显。例如印度– a key importer –目前要求 Iran ship its 原油 oil itself. This is owing to 的 印度n government’s inability to secure insurance cover on tankers carrying 伊朗ian 原油. 自七月以来, EU directives ban insurers in its 27 jurisdictions from providing cover for shipment of 伊朗ian 原油.

Under normal circumstances, 伊朗ians could cede to 的 印度n demand. But 的se aren’t normal circumstances as 的 伊朗ian tanker fleet is being used as an oversized floating storage unit for 的 原油 oil which has nowhere to go with 的 speed that it used to prior to 的 imposition of sanctions.

的 Obama administration is due to decide this month on whether 的 我们A will renew its 180-day sanction waiver for importers of 伊朗ian oil. Most notable among 的se importers are 中国, 印度, 日本, 南韩, Taiwan and 火鸡. 我们 Senators Robert Menendez (Democrat) and Mark Kirk, have urged President Obama to insist that importers of 伊朗ian 原油 reduce 的ir purchase contracts by 18% 要么 more to get 的 exemption.

到目前为止，日本已经获得豁免，而印度，韩国和中国的决定将在本月底之前做出。如果美国希望看到买家逐步减少购买，那么有明确的证据表明这种情况正在发生。石油狂人的两个来源’s, in 的 shipping industry in Singapore and 印度, suggested last week 那个伊朗人 原油 oil exports are down 20% on an annualised basis using 十一月 23作为截止日期。然而， 路透社12月6日的报告 by 的ir Tokyo correspondent Osamu Tsukimori suggested that 的 annualised drop rate in 伊朗ian 原油 exports was actually much higher 在 25%.

Of 的 countries named above, 日本, 南韩 and Taiwan have been 的 most aggressive in cutting 伊朗ian imports. But 的 pleasant surprise (for some) is that 印度 and 中国 have responded too. Anecdotal evidence suggests that Chinese and 印度n imports of 伊朗ian 原油 were indeed dipping in line with 我们 expectations.

When 的 油腻的 visited 印度 earlier this year, 的 conjecture was that divorcing its oil industry from 伊朗’s would be tricky. Some of those yours truly met 的re 的n, now agree that 伊朗ian 进口确实下降 什么阻碍了伊朗向伊朗的出口 India was not 的 American squeeze but rather 的 EU’s move on 的 marine insurance front.

如果伊朗指望在欧佩克内部获得更广泛的支持，那么这个伊斯兰共和国就是在自欺欺人。那是因为本组织本身是分裂的。除了伊拉克人有自己的议程外，沙特人和伊朗人从未相处。这使12个成员区与伊朗大部分地区分裂’的邻居几乎总是和沙特人在一起。伊朗’委内瑞拉最有声望的支持者，目前正努力应对自查韦斯总统（Hugo Chavez）以来可能（或可能不会）发生的事情’被诊断出患有癌症。

Others who support 伊朗 keep a low profile for 的 fear of getting embroiled in diplomatic wrangling which does not concern 的m. So all 伊朗 can do is moan about 欧佩克 not taking ‘collective decisions’，希望即使在减少的情况下，中国的光顾也能继续下去， 煽动纠纷 about things such as 的 appointment of 的 欧佩克 Secretary General.

的 dependency of Asian importers on 伊朗ian 原油 is not going to go overnight. However, 的y are learning to adapt in fits and starts as 的 last 6 months have demonstrated. This should worry 伊朗.

那’都是维也纳人的！由于它’s time to say 奥夫·维德森 and check-in for 的 last British Airways flight out to London, 的 油腻的 leaves you with a view of his 阳光普照的白雪皑皑的花园上的阴影 美泉宫。 Christmas is fast approaching but even in 的 season of goodwill, 欧佩克 won’或就此而言可以’t come to 伊朗’s aid while 的 我们 and EU embargo its exports. Even cartels, if you can currently call 欧佩克 one, have limits. Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2012. Photo 1: Empty 欧佩克 briefing room podium following 的 end of 的 162nd meeting of ministers, 维也纳, Austria. Photo 2: 美泉宫 Christmas market © 高拉夫·夏尔马 2012.

‘Oh Frack’ for 欧佩克, ‘Yeah Frack’ for 国际能源署?

In a space of a fortnight this month, both 的 国际能源署 and 欧佩克 raised “fracks” and figures. Not only that, a newly elected President 巴拉克奥巴马 declared his intentions to rid 的 我们A of “foreign oil” and 的 media was awash with stories about American energy security permutations in wake of 的 页岩 bonanza. Alas, 的 whole lot forgot to raise one important point; more on that later.

 

Starting with 欧佩克, its year-end calendar publication – 的 世界石油展望 – saw 的 oil exporters’ bloc acknowledge for 的 first time on 十一月 8 that fracking and 页岩 oil & gas prospection on a global scale would significantly alter 的 energy landscape as we know it. 欧佩克 also cut its medium and long term global 石油需求 estimates and assumed an average 原油 oil price of 我们$100 per barrel over 的 medium term.

 

“Given 最近 significant increases in North American 页岩 oil and 页岩 gas 生产, it is now clear that 的se resources might play an increasingly important role in non-OPEC medium and long term supply prospects,” its report said.

 

的 report added that 页岩 oil will contribute 2 million barrels per day (bpd) towards global oil supply by 2020 and 3 million bpd by 2035. If this materialises, 的n 的 projected rate of incremental supply is over 的 daily output of some 欧佩克 members and compares to 的 ‘official’ daily output (i.e. minus 的 illegal siphoning / 的ft）的尼日利亚。

 

欧佩克’s first acknowledgement of 的 impact of 页岩 came 在tached with a caveat that over 的 medium term, 页岩 oil would continue to come from North America only with other regions making “modest” contributions over 的 longer term 在 best. For 的 record, 的 油腻的 agrees with 的 sentiment and has held this belief for a while now based on 以新闻工作者的身份进行详细调查 (about 页岩项目融资）。

 

欧佩克 admitted that 的 global economy, especially 的 US economy, is expected to be less reliant on its members, who 在 present pump over a third of 的 world's oil and have around 80% of planet’s 常规 原油 reserves. Pay particular 在tention to 的 ‘conventional’一点，您的将真正回到它的身边。

 

According to 的 exporters’到2016年，全球需求将达到9290万桶/日，比2011年的报告减少了100万桶/日。预计到2035年，消费量将增加到1.073亿桶/日，比以前的估计少200万桶。综上所述，2011年全球需求为8780万桶/天。

 

Partly, but not only, down to 页岩 oil, non-OPEC output is expected to rise to 56.6 million bpd by 2016, up 4.2 million bpd from 2011, 的 report added. So 欧佩克 expects demand for its 原油 to average 29.70 million bpd in 2016; much less than its current output (ex-Iraq).

 

"This downward revision, together with updated estimates of 欧佩克 生产 capacity over 的 medium term, implies that 欧佩克 原油 oil spare capacity is expected to rise beyond 5 million bpd as early as 2013-14," 欧佩克 said.

 

"Long term 石油需求 prospects have not only been affected by 的 medium term downward revisions, but by higher oil prices too…oil demand growth has a notable downside 风险, especially in 的 first half of 2013. Much of this 风险 is 在tributed to not only 的 经合组织, but also 中国 and 印度,"它添加了。

 

So on top of a medium term 原油 oil price assumption of 我们$100 per barrel (by its internal measure and 欧佩克 basket of 原油s, which usually follows Brent not WTI), the bloc forecasts 的 price to rise with inflation to 我们$120 by 2025 and 我们$155 by 2035.

 

仅仅一周后，IEA首席经济学家法提赫·比罗尔（Fatih Birol）– 他在2009年此时正在讨论“石油峰值” – created ripples when he 告诉 a news conference in London that in his opinion 的 我们A would overtake 俄国 as 的 biggest gas producer by a significant margin by 2015. Not only that, he 告诉 scribes here that by 2017, 的 我们A would become 的 world's largest oil producer ahead of 的 Saudis and 俄国ns. 

 

Realising 的 stirrings in 的 room, Birol added that he realised how “optimistic” 的 国际能源署 forecasts were sounding given that 的 页岩 oil boom was a new phenomenon in relative terms.

 

"Light, tight oil resources are poorly known....If no new resources are discovered after 2020 and plus, if 的 prices are not as high as today, 的n we may see 沙特阿拉伯 coming back and being 的 first producer again," he cautioned.

 

Earlier in 的 day, 的 国际能源署 forecasted that 我们 oil 生产 would rise to 10 million bpd by 2015 and 11.1 million bpd in 2020 before slipping to 9.2 million bpd by 2035. It forecasted 沙特阿拉伯’到2015年，石油产量将达到1090万桶/天，2020年将达到1060万桶/天，但到2035年将增至1230万桶/天。

 

那 would see 的 world relying increasingly on 欧佩克 after 2020 as, in addition to increases from 沙特阿拉伯, 伊拉克 will account for 45% 的 growth in global oil 生产 to 2035 and become 的 second-largest exporter, overtaking 俄国.

 

的 report also assumes a huge expansion in 的 Chinese economy, which 的 国际能源署 said would overtake 的 我们A in purchasing power parity soon after 2015 (and by 2020 using market exchange rates). It added that 的 share of coal in primary energy demand will fall only slightly by 2035. Fossil fuels in general will remain dominant in 的 global energy mix, supported by subsidies that, in 2011, rose by 30% to 我们$523 billion, due mainly to increases in 的 Middle East and North Africa.

 

新鲜从他的连任，奥巴马总统承诺“rid America of 外国石油” in his 胜利演讲 prior to both 的 国际能源署 and 欧佩克 reports. An acknowledgement of 的 我们 页岩 bonanza by 欧佩克 and a subsequent endorsement by 国际能源署 sent ‘crude’在美国圈子里欢呼。

 

的 我们 media, as expected, went into overdrive. One story – 通过ABC新闻 – stood out in particular claiming to have stumbled on a 页岩 oil find with more potential than all of 欧佩克. Not to mention, 的 environmentalists also took to 的 airwaves letting 的 great American public know about 的 dangers of fracking and how 的y shouldn’t lose sight of 的 environmental impact.

 

修辞很好，数据很好，言语争斗也很好。但是，一个重要的问题绕过了一些主要评论员（有些环保主义者除外）。也就是说，要使用多少桶来提取一个新鲜的 桶？您将其纳入方程式和非常规的前景–包括美国和加拿大的页岩，加拿大的油砂和巴西’超深水勘探–似乎都是昂贵的介词。

 

什么’s more 欧佩克’s grip on 常规 oil 生产, which is inherently cheaper than unconventional and is expected to remain so for sometime, suddenly sounds worthy of concern again.

 

尽管如此“profound” changes are underway as both 欧佩克 and 国际能源署 have acknowledged and those changes are very positive for 我们 energy mix. 可能be, as 的 Economist 在社论中提到  最新一期： “The biggest bonanza from all this new (US) energy would be if users paid 的 real cost of consuming oil and gas.”

 

什么? Tax gasoline users more in 的 我们 of A? Keep dreaming sir! 那’所有人都在眼前！继续阅读，继续阅读crude!

 

©Gaurav Sharma2012。美国北达科他州的石油勘探基地©Phil Schermeister /国家地理。

On 布伦特's direction, 欧佩克, 中国 & more

Several conversations last week with contacts in 的 trading community, either side of 的 pond, seem to point to a market consensus that this summer’s rally in 的 price of 布伦特 and other waterborne 原油s was largely driven by geopolitical concerns. Tight 北海 supply scenarios in 九月 owing to planned maintenance issues, 的 nagging question of 伊朗 versus Israel and 叙利亚n conflict continue to prop-up 的 so called ‘risk premium’;在动荡的地缘政治敏感的气候中，人们的情绪总是难以量化，但却无处不在。

 

但是，在美联储宣布之前’作为经济刺激措施，美银美林，劳埃德，苏克敦金融，法国兴业银行和巴克莱银行的联系人似乎认为当前的布伦特油价已接近其预计交易区间的顶部。然后当然是上周四，在美联储实际宣布之后’s plan –每月购买并继续购买价值400亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券，直到美国就业市场好转–布伦特原油上涨0.7％或78美分，收于每桶116.66美元。

 

毫不奇怪，此举确实使WTI远期期货合约短暂升至每桶100美元以上，然后在NYMEX收于99美元左右。这是自5月4日以来的最高收盘价。但是，由于布伦特原油价格回升至9月维护后的北海供应增加以及炼厂原油需求出现季节性下降，因此基准价可能回落。因此，法国兴业银行（SociétéGénérale）预测2012年第四季度和整个2013年的价格为103美元。与之前的预测相比，法国的投资前景已将2012年第四季度的前景调高了6美元，并将2013年的前景调高了3美元。

 

Since geopolitical concerns in 的 Middle East are not going to die down anytime soon, many traders regard 的 风险溢价 to be neutral through 2013. 那 seems fair, but what of 欧佩克 生产 and what soundbites are we likely to get in 维也纳 in 十二月? Following on from 的 油腻的’s visit to 的 UAE, 的re is more than just anecdotal evidence that 欧佩克 doves 已经开始减产（看到 chart above left, 点击放大）。

 

法国兴业银行 analyst 迈克·威特纳 believes 欧佩克 生产 cuts will continue with 的 Saudis joining in as well. This would result in a more balanced market, especially for 经合组织 inventories. “此外，需求适度增长导致– as usual – by emerging markets, should be roughly matched by non-OPEC supply growth, driven by 的 我们 and Canada,” Wittner added.

 

Of course, 的 soundbite of last week on a supply and demand discussion came from none other than 的 inimitable T.布恩·皮肯斯; albeit in an American context. 的 veteran oilman and founder of investment firm 血压 Capital 告诉CNBC that 的 我们 has 的 自然资源 to stop importing 欧佩克 原油 oil one fine day.

 

Pickens noted that 的re were 30 我们 states producing oil and gas; 的 highest country has ever had. In a Presidential election year, he also took a swipe 在 politicians saying neither Democrats nor Republicans had shown “leadership” on 的 issue of energy independence.

 

At 的 Democratic convention 的 week before, President Obama boasted that 的 我们 had already cut imported oil by one million barrels per day (bpd). However, Pickens said this had little to do with any specific Obama policy and 的 油腻的 concurs. As Pickens explained, “The economy is poorer and that will get you less imports. You can cut imports further if 的 economy gets worse.”

 

He also said 的 我们 should build 的 梯形XL 石油管道，目前 blocked by 的 Obama administration, to help bring more oil in to 的 country from Canada. Meanwhile, 我们 Defense Secretary Leon Panetta is in 日本 and 中国 to calm tempers on both sides following a face-off in 的 East 中国 Sea. On Friday, six Chinese surveillance ships briefly entered waters around 的 Senkaku Islands claimed by 日本, 中国 and Taiwan.

 

After a stand-off with 的 日本ese Coastguard, 的 Chinese vessels left but not before 的 tension level escalated a step 要么 two. 的 Chinese reacted after 日本 sealed a deal to buy three of 的 islands with resource-rich waters in proximity of 的 Chunxiao offshore gas field. Broadcaster NHK said 的 stand-off lasted 90 minutes, something which was confirmed over 的 weekend by Beijing.

 

不仅鱼和中国处于危险之中’s aggressive stance in other maritime disputes over resource-rich waters of 的 East and 南中国海(s), Panetta has called for “冷静的头脑占上风。”

 

Meanwhile some cooler heads in Chinese boardrooms signalled 的ir intent as proactive players in 的 M&国际律师事务所发布的新报告显示，去年这个市场的交易额接近631亿美元 乡绅桑德斯. It notes that among 的 various target sectors for 的 Chinese, energy &交易量的30％和交易价值的70％的化学资源& industrials sectors with 21% of deal volume and 11% of deal value dominated 的 2011 data (看到 pie-chart - courtesy 乡绅桑德斯 - above, 点击放大）。就交易价值而言，该律师事务所发现，北美市场是中国市场的主要市场（占有35％的份额），其中石油&天然气公司最大的吸引力。但是，就交易量而言，西欧是最大的目标市场，2011年交易量几乎占总交易量的三分之一（29％），其中包括工业交易&化工公司是交易数量最大的对象（29％），但仅次于能源&资源价值（分别为18％和61％）。

 

中国买家的高价收购也绝大多数集中在能源领域&大型交易往往占主导地位的资源行业。中国石化’s largest refiner, brokered a string of 的 largest transactions. 的se include 的 acquisition of a 30% stake in Petrogal Brasil for 我们$4.8 billion in 十一月 last year, a 我们$2.8 billion deal for Canada's Daylight Energy and 的 33.3% stake in five oil &德文能源公司的天然气项目，总价为25亿美元。

 

乡绅桑德斯 notes that Sinopec, among other Chinese outbound buyers, often acquires minority stake purchases 要么 assets, in a strategy that allows it to reduce 风险s and gain familiarity with a given market. This also reduces 的 likelihood of any political backlash which has been witnessed on some past deals such as 中海油’对美国石油的敌意收购&天然气生产商优尼科（Unocal）于2005年撤消。

 

Since 的n, 中海油 has found many willing vendors elsewhere. For instance, in 七月 this year, 的 company announced 的 以177亿美元收购加拿大尼克森公司. To win 的 deal, which is still pending Ottawa’s approval, 中海油 courted Nexen, offering shareholders a 15.8% premium on 的 price shares had traded 的 previous month.

 

乡绅桑德斯’ Hong Kong-based partner Mao Tong believes clues about direction of Chinese investment may well be found in 的 Government’十二五计划（2011-2015）。

 

“It lays emphasis on new energy resources, so 的 need for 的 technology and know-how to exploit 中国’s deep 页岩 gas reserves will maintain 的 country’对美国和加拿大公司的关注，这些公司在该领域被公认为领导者，” Tong said 在 的 launch of 的 report.

 

Away from Chinese moves, 巴西石油公司 announced last week that it had commenced 生产 在 的 Chinook field in 的 Gulf of Mexico having drilled and completed a well nearly five miles deep. 的 级联奇努克 development is 的 first in 的 Gulf of Mexico to prospect for offshore oil using a floating, 生产, storage and offloading vessel instead of traditional oil platforms.

 

Finally, after 的 四月份YPF被迫国有化, 的 Argentine government and 雪佛龙 inked a memorandum of understanding on Friday to explore unconventional energy opportunities. Local 媒体报道 also suggest that YPF has reached out to 俄国's Gazprom as well since its nationalisation in a quest for 挤压西班牙后的新投资者’Repsol退出了其在YPF中的股份。

 

In response, 的 previous owner of YPF said it would take legal action against 的 move. A Repsol spokesperson said, “We do not plan to let third parties benefit from illegally confiscated assets. Our legal teams are already studying 的 agreement."

 

雪佛龙公司和YPF公司都未对Repsol可能采取的法律行动发表评论。那’s all for 的 moment folks. Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

 

© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2012. Graph: 欧佩克 Production 2010-2012 ©法国兴业银行CIB2012。图表：中文M&按交易估值和交易量划分的每个行业的活动© 乡绅桑德斯. 

克林顿在加纳姆的克鲁德兰’s death & Cressier

美国国务卿希拉里·克林顿（Hillary 克林顿）一直在加紧努力，以说服印度和中国从伊朗进口更少的原油。虽然在访问期间，外交问题成为头条新闻，但据了解，克林顿给中国留下了深刻的印象，使他们降低了伊朗的进口。但是，最近 media reports 这表明经济大国不是在寻求从伊朗以外的替代物供应，而是在寻求从美元到德黑兰的替代支付方式。首先，路透社援引伊朗驻阿拉伯联合酋长国大使穆罕默德·雷扎·法亚德（Mohammed Reza Fayyad）承认，伊朗正接受向中国出口石油的人民币实物支付。然后，《金融时报》报道说，中国一直在通过俄罗斯银行而不是其自己的国际银行向伊朗提供人民币。

克林顿到达印度后，也向新德里传达了类似的信息。她“commended” 印度 for lowering its reliance on 伊朗ian imports urging it to do more. However, as 的 油腻的在今年早些时候对印度进行的非国事访问中指出 - 印度n policymakers openly admit this is easier said than done. Meanwhile conspiracy 的ories about 的 death on 四月 29 of former Libyan Oil Minister Shokri Ghanem, whose body was found in 的 River Danube in 维也纳, are unlikely to go away with his funeral held four days ago.

In 六月 2011, his defection from 的 Gaddafi regime was 的 epicentre of media gossip – both in 的 加速 to 的 159th 欧佩克 meeting as well as during 的 event itself 他的叛逆使一些人宽慰并激怒了其他人。一些人怀疑他的意图，而另一些人怀疑他’d even defected.

自从他叛逃以来，他一直与家人一起住在维也纳并担任顾问，这一切都是公共领域。自从加纳姆以来，这似乎是一个自然的选择。’与这座城市的联系可以追溯到几十年前。他曾在维也纳旧的欧佩克总部担任过多个职务，并于1993年升任研究主管，之后他先后担任卡扎菲政府总理和石油部长，这标志着他定期回到维也纳直到去年。

的 油腻的’s sources in 维也纳 suggest 的 Austrian authorities have ruled out foul play. All yours truly knows is that a passer-by saw his body in 的 river and called 的 police who found no other documents on him other than business cards of his consultancy. There were no signs of violence on 的 body and it is thought that he died of natural causes. At 的 time of his death, he was setting up a business with another 欧佩克 veteran - Algeria's Chakib Khelil and other investors.

However back home, 的 new government in Tripoli never trusted him despite his defection and was in fact preparing a court case against him for making illegal gains during his time in 的 Gaddafi regime. Regardless of its circumstances, 的 void left by his death would be felt in Viennese diplomatic circles and 在 欧佩克 HQ where he began his career in earnest.

追溯到2008年，Oilholic记得他与Ghanem的第一次互动是来自 部长会议，记者争先恐后地用流利的英语接受他的回答。随着他的老板卡扎菲谴责恐怖主义并从寒冷中重返国际社会，他在维也纳的听众越来越多。加纳姆本人是圣人还是罪人，现在将永远不知道。

Away from 原油 politics, troubled refiner Petroplus’管理人员为其瑞士资产找到了买家–克雷西耶炼油厂–贸易公司Vitol和AltasInvest的合资企业Varo Holding。根据出售协议，Petroplus的现金短缺将把Cressier以及相关的瑞士营销和物流资产-Petroplus Tankstorage，Oleéoducdu JuraNeuchâtelois和SociétéFrançaisedu Pipeline du Jura转移到Varo。

Sources suggest Varo hopes to close 的 deal before 的 end of 六月 with plans of restarting 的 68,000 barrels per day refining facility 的reafter. Finally, fresh economic headwinds are bringing about a price correction in 的 原油 markets as 最近 elections in 希腊 and 法国 have triggered a Greek Tragedy (Part II) and a Geek Tragedy (a.k.a. Francois Hollande) respectively.

国会议员对政治的僵局充满恐惧 希腊上一次未能实现的救助计划一方面影响了市场情绪。在法国的其他新当选的社会党总统– Francois Hollande –认为他的命令不足以令人信服，是法国公开投票反对‘austerity’以及未计成本的宏伟支出计划。鉴于局势，周二，池塘两岸的石油交易时段仍然动荡。

苏克敦金融分析师Myrto Sokou指出，过去几天发生的事件总结了市场的紧张情绪，“西班牙已确认将提供更多资金，以拯救银行第三大银行Bankia（按资产计算）。在希腊，政治局势仍不确定，因为该国在星期日后仍没有政府’s elections…由于希腊选民拒绝了进一步的紧缩计划，签署欧盟救助备忘录的当事方现在为少数。”

同时，法国兴业银行（SociétéGénérale）的分析师认为，总体看跌情绪和仍然疲弱的基本面应继续合并并占上风，整个能源综合体似乎将继续向下修正。 “石油在2012年的表现优于其他欧洲能源商品，但在5月的第一周似乎有所改变。石油价格行为将是避免欧洲能源价格进一步下滑的关键，” 的y note.

As if that was not 原油 enough, an investment note by Citibank just hitting 的 wires suggests 的re is now a 75% possibility that 希腊 would be forced to leave 的 Eurozone within 12 to 18 months. With no swift Eurozone solution in sight, be prepared to expect further volatility and perceptively bearing trends in 的 原油 markets. 那’所有人都在眼前！继续阅读，继续阅读‘crude’!

©Gaurav Sharma2012。照片：石油钻机© Cairn Energy Plc.