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2016年3月23日星期三

在美丽的不列颠哥伦比亚省追逐油轮

油鬼 has crossed the international dateline 和 has gone from being 6000 miles east of London in 日本东京 to being 4700 miles west in "Beautiful 不列颠哥伦比亚省, 加拿大" as vehicle registration plates in 温哥华 remind you with customary aplomb.

It’s a bit cloudy 和 tad soggy here, a marked contrast to sunny Tokyo. In between meeting family, friends 和 contacts, 敬上 has also penned two 福布斯 列– one on the direction 的 韩国经济 和 a second one on the 油price bottoming out.

这位博客作者说,这两个全球基准都很好– 布伦特 和 WTI –正潜伏在或略低于每桶40美元的水平,包括国际能源署在内的一些人则认为油价可能已经触底。尽管接受这些情绪并不困难,但中国’有人解释说,预期的需求平淡可能会在中期带来麻烦。 后者 福布斯 发布

Shipping traffic out of this Canadian province where 敬上 is 在 the moment, typifies the 油and 加油站 world’s dependency on emerging markets in general 和 Far Eastern economies in particular, led by – who else – but China.

无论您在哪里欣赏卑诗省’s amazing shoreline 和 温哥华’美丽的海滨– 在op 松鸡山 (左上方),温哥华市中心的Concord Pacific Place(),城市港口入口(左下方), Port 穆迪 or on the other side 的 Burrard Inlet from 英吉利湾海滩 (最喜欢的地方)– you cannot miss umpteen 油and 加油站 tankers either waiting to dock or waiting to leave with their 原油 cargo from the area.

在过去的12年中,每次访问该地区时,Oilholic只会看到交通量呈指数级增长。毫不奇怪,它在非常强大的区域环保主义者中引起了极大的震惊。他们的外溢再次加剧了他们最可怕的恐惧 2015年4月的船用燃料 西温哥华外’s Sandy Cove.

在此之前,还有其他事件,尽管最严重的是 可以追溯到2007年7月 when an excavator working on a sewage line pierced a 油pipeline releasing more than 250,000 litres of 原油 oil. Nearly 70,000 litres flowed into the Burrard Inlet, with the resulting clear-up costing the province $20 million.

Yet loading 和 outflow of 油(and 加油站) from 不列颠哥伦比亚省, a province which has very little of its own 和 serves mainly as a transit point, to the Far East is only going to increase not decrease. In the last election, 加拿大’意识到碳足迹的新总理贾斯汀·特鲁多’自由党夺取了全省42个席位中的17个席位;这是自1968年以来的最好成绩。

Some, to quote a retired civil servant 和 old contact, can be described as “tree huggers”, which is not necessarily a bad thing 和 there are plenty of trees to hug in BC. Tree huggers or not, Trudeau promptly appointed three of his 卑诗省议员到他的内阁

But with the Canadian economy going through a lacklustre patch, 油markets grappling with oversupply 和 China expected to buy less, the STakes are going to get higher even if the 西 Canadian Select –该交易价格较西德克萨斯中级交易价低(目前为14美元以上)–降低。坦率地说,在这里,几乎没有碳意识的PM可以做到。

此外,如果要相信传闻证据, 卑诗省省长克里斯蒂·克拉克 和 her provincial Liberals were actually banking on an 油and 加油站 boom in time for a 2017 regional election, eyeing both jobs 和 revenue.

Instead they, along with much 的 油and 加油站 world, now have a complicated 和 prolonged bust on their hands, with the general direction of Canadian 油dispatches more than likely to be Eastwards, even if the US remains 加拿大’s largest trading partner for 油and much else. Just ask neighbouring 艾伯塔省; the politics (and economics) of it all is likely to get much more complicated! 

但是,考虑到日本和中国的需求都较低,您很可能在不列颠哥伦比亚省的水域中发现少量的油轮。 Oilholic确实强调这个词‘marginally’ though, 和 that won't satisfy the 树抱抱者. 那’温哥华的人们暂时都来了!下一站通过在亚利桑那州凤凰城的短暂停留中途到达美国加利福尼亚州旧金山。继续阅读,继续阅读‘crude’! 

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© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2016. Photo I: View of 温哥华 from 松鸡山, North 温哥华, Photo II: Concord Pacific Place, Downtown 温哥华, Photo III: City Harbour inlet, 温哥华, 不列颠哥伦比亚省, 加拿大 ©Gaurav Sharma,2016年3月。

2015年1月10日,星期六

油价下跌和那些油轮即将到来

原油 year 2015 has well 和 truly begun with the 油price slipping several notches further, as tankers begin carrying their 一月 cargo that is worth considerably less than it was 12 months ago.

With the full trading week to Jan 9 seeing an uptick in trading volumes back to normal levels after the festive period, the Oilholic spent a day looking 在 tankers in 英吉利湾 on a beautiful sunny afternoon in 温哥华, 不列颠哥伦比亚省, 加拿大. Most 的se behemoths (左看,点击放大照片) ferry Canadian 原油 to Asian markets finding their way to the vastness 的 ocean from 温哥华's Burrard Inlet. 

As tankers disappeared away from eyesight 和 yet more dotted the landscape, 今年的第一个5天评估 saw 布伦特 down 11.44% on the week before, WTI -8.2% 和 the 欧佩克 Basket a whopping -16%. For now, the Canadian 油and 加油站 industry is holding up pretty well 和 STrategically bracing itself for a further drop in price to as low as US$35 per barrel.

Beyond that, of course all bets are off. 什么ever the price, local environmental lobby groups don’很像这些油轮“遮盖美丽的不列颠哥伦比亚省的海岸线” to quote one. Data suggests traffic has risen seven-fold since 2001. Of course, the 油being shipped isn’与不列颠哥伦比亚省一样本地’没有太多自己的东西。

Rather, as many of you would know, all of it is piped in from 艾伯塔省 by 金德·摩根(Kinder Morgan) to its Westport Terminal on the South East shoreline of Burrard Inlet in Burnaby. 公司 is the middle of a full on bid to increase pipeline capacity. However, STanding on the beach, more than one environmentalist would tell you that a spill was inevitable, especially if you happen to declare you are an energy analyst.

Yet, both major incidents over the last ten years have been on land 和 weren’t down to the 原油 behemoths 的 sea. In 2007, a construction mishap saw a 金德·摩根(Kinder Morgan) pipeline break in Burnaby spilling 油into the Burrard Inlet while dousing some 50 homes in the neighbourhood with the 原油 STuff. 

Nearly two years later, a STorage tank spilt 200,000 litres of 油on Burnaby Mountain. Thankfully, a containment bay prevented spillage into the wider environment. All this might not help 金德·摩根(Kinder Morgan)'s medium term public relations drive, but the volume of traffic 和 cargoes, even with the existing pipeline capacity, isn’除非全球经济出现严重的市中心,否则2015年将有所退潮。

If the 俄国ns, Americans 和 Saudis are in no mood to lower production, the Canadians aren’根据轶事证据,这两者都不去。油鬼’s thoughts on how an 油price below $60 might well hit exploration 和 production in 加拿大 (and elsewhere) are 这里in a 福布斯 一写 较早。 

这位博主确实看到价格会在2015年中旬左右开始上涨,因为补给可能会开始。目前,除非发生金融海啸,否则将影响非经合组织的经济活动, 油鬼的预言 is for a 布伦特 price in the range of $75 to $85 和 WTI price range of $65 to $75 for 2015. Weight on 布伦特 should be to the upside, while weight on WTI should be to the downside 的 aforementioned range.

快到圣诞节,我们应该看看 每桶布伦特原油约80美元。可以肯定的是,三位数的价格天堂’t likely to be seen over the next 12 months. 那’所有人都在眼前!继续阅读,继续阅读‘crude’! 

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© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2015. Photo: Oil tankers in 英吉利湾, 温哥华, 不列颠哥伦比亚省, 加拿大 © 高拉夫·夏尔马 2015

2013年10月20日,星期日

艾伯塔省第一个商业油田的故事

一个古朴的小镇叫做 特纳谷 in 艾伯塔省, 加拿大 may not mean much to the current crop of 油and 加油站 industry observers. However, it has a special place in British history as well as that 的 industry itself. Back in 1914, the town acquired the STatus of 西 加拿大's 油hub 和 had the country's first commercial oilfield which, for a while, was the largest 油and 加油站 production base 当时的整个大英帝国。
 
地狱’s Half Acre 大卫·芬奇(David Finch) 经过精心研究 and entertaining tale 的 townsfolk of 特纳谷, 和 those who came from further afield to make it all happen back in the day. The author, who 已经 researching the social history of 西 加拿大’s 油and 加油站 从1980年代开始,这个行业就以他的名字记载了有关该地区的不下15本书,其中叙述了该省认真开始的所有书籍。
 
钻机,加工厂和管道都在那里, 散布一切的工人和工人的轶事也是如此,他们实现了一切,并活着讲述自己的故事。为了进行生动活泼的叙述,芬奇(Finch)整理了档案资料,并进行了数十次采访,表现非常出色。但是这本实用的书只有200多页,不仅讲述了 商业成功的故事,但也包括特纳山谷在(默认情况下)加拿大对黑金的历史性追求中付出了什么代价;在两次世界大战之间夹着一种努力,这是命运的决定。
 
地狱's Half Acre is a very real place in a coulee just outside of 特纳谷, writes Finch. For two decades, companies piped excess natural 加油站 to the lip of this gorge 和 burned it – in order to produce valuable 加油站oline they had to also produce the natural 加油站 for which there were limited markets 在 the time. In fact, the glowing sky could be seen as far south west as 卡尔加里, the author tells us.
 
加拿大的国宝也有一段时间成为军事目标。在最高峰时期,在1942年达到顶峰之前,特纳谷每天为盟军的战争行动提供1000万桶。如您所料,当时(现在仍然是)周期性行业经历了自己的兴衰。芬奇也深入研究了特纳谷的公司及其角色。
 
石油狂人首先碰到这本书 参观卡尔加里 和 a chance visit to 德米尔书店 在...的建议下 a local legal expert. For that, this blogger is truly grateful to all parties concerned, 和 above all to the author for enriching one's knowledge about this fascinating place. Hence, this review was long overdue!
 
Today 特纳谷, a harbinger 的 success of 加拿大's 油and 加油站 industry, is known for tourism, leisure 和 for being the hometown of 劳伦·哈珀(Laureen Harper), the frank 和 vivacious wife of 总理史蒂芬·哈珀。所以芬奇的彩色书 could serve as a timely reminder 的 importance of a bygone era as 特纳谷 begins the countdown to its centennial celebrations 的 1914 discovery of oil.
 
Oilholic很高兴为您推荐这本书 to all those interested in the history 的 油and 加油站 business, origins 的 Canadian energy industry, 艾伯塔省's place in the global geopolitical 油and 加油站 equation 和 last, but not the least, anyone seeking a riveting 有关大艾伯塔省石油补丁的书。
 
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©Gaurav Sharma2013。照片:封面– 地狱’s Half Acre © 文化遗产出版社

2012年12月11日,星期二

环评’切换到布伦特告诉我们

A decision by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) this month has sent a lot of analysts 和 industry observers, including 敬上, 原油ly quipping “we told you so.” 那 decision is ditching the WTI 和 adopting 布伦特 as its benchmark for 油forecasts as the EIA feels its domestic benchmark no longer reflects accurate 油prices.

好吧没这么说 as such; but 这里is an 逐字地 引用了它说的话: "This change was made to better reflect the price refineries pay for imported light, sweet 原油 油and takes into account the divergence of WTI prices from those of globally traded benchmark 原油s such as 布伦特."

布伦特原油交易价格为每桶20美元 WTI溢价 futures since 十月, 和 the premium has remained in double digits for huge chunks 的 last four fiscal quarters while waterborne 原油s such 作为 Louisiana Light Sweet have tracked 布伦特 more closely.

In fact, the 环评 clearly noted that WTI futures prices have lagged behind other benchmarks, as rising 油production in North Dakota 和 德州 pulled it away from benchmark cousins across the pond 和 north 的 US border. The production rise, for lack of a better word, has quite simply 'overwhelmed' the pipelines 和 ancillary infrastructure needed to move the 原油 STuff from 库欣 (Oklahoma), where the WTI benchmark price is set, to the Gulf of Mexico. This is 逐渐改变 但对于EIA来说还不够快。

石油主义者认为,谨慎地提到布伦特也不是没有麻烦的。 Production in the British sector 的 北海 已经 declining since the late 1990s to be honest. However the 环评, while acknowledging that 布伦特 has its issues too, clearly feels retail prices for petrol, diesel 和 other distillates follow 布伦特 more closely than WTI.

The move is a more than tacit acknowledgement that 布伦特 is more reflective of global supply 和 demand permutations than its Texan cousin. The 环评’的动作,说的是,应该取悦 最多。其首席运营官表示,早在2010年5月, 布伦特 was winning the battle 的 indices. 在截至今年11月的一年中,交易员积累了ICE布伦特期货交易量,今年迄今已增长12%。

此外,在欧佩克之前 output decision in Vienna this week, both anecdotal 和 empirical evidence suggests hedge funds 和 17 London-based money managers have increased their bets on 布伦特 油prices rising for 11月和12月初的大部分时间。能够’t say for last week as 敬上 has been 但是,截至11月27日,在伦敦以外的地区,净多头头寸已升至108,112张;超过11k的峰值。

You are welcome to draw your own conclusions. No one is suggesting any connection with what may or may not take place in Vienna on 十二月 12 or 环评 opting to use 布伦特 for its forecasts. Perhaps such moves by money managers 和 hedge funds are just part of a switch from WTI to 布伦特 ahead 的 一月 re-balancing act. However, it is worth mentioning in the scheme of things.

在其他值得注意的新闻中,斯蒂芬·哈珀(Stephen Harper)’s government in 加拿大 has finally approved the 中国收购尼克森’s 中海油 following a review which began on 七月 23. 卡尔加里, 艾伯塔省-headquartered 尼克森 had 900 million barrels of 油equivalent net proven reserves (92% of which is 油with nearly 50% 的 assets developed) at its last update on 十二月 31, 2011. 公司 has STrategic holdings in the 北海, so the decision does have implications for the UK as well.

中海油 ’这项出价在加拿大引起了极大的反响。一个普遍欢迎外国直接投资的国家。从印度到韩国,亚洲国家石油公司也大受欢迎。石油狂人感到哈珀政府’s decision is a win for the pragmatists in Ottawa. In light 的 announcement, ratings agency 穆迪's has said it will review 尼克森's Baa3 senior unsecured rating 和 Ba1 subordinated rating for a possible upgrade.

同时,巴西发生了小规模狂犬病’s legislative circles as president 迪尔玛·罗塞夫(Dilma Rousseff) vetoed part of a domestic law that was aimed 在 sharing 油royalties across the country's 26 STates. 巴西’s education ministry felt 100% 的 profits from new ultradeepwater 油concessions should be used to improve education throughout the country.

But Rio de Janeiro governor Sergio Cabral, who gets a windfall from offshore prospection, warned the measure to spread 油wealth across the country could bankrupt his STate ahead 的 2014 soccer world cup 和 the 2016 summer Olympic games. So Rousseff favoured 后者 和 vetoed a part 的 legislation which would have affected existing 油concessions. To please those advocating a more even spread of 油wealth in 巴西, she retained a clause spreading wealth from the “尚未勘探的油田”还有待拍卖。

巴西's main oil-producing STates have threatened legal action. It is a very complex situation 和 a new STructure for distributing royalties has to be in place by 一月 2013 in order for auctions of fresh explorations blocks to go ahead. This STory has some way to go before it ends 和 the end won’有些人漂亮。继续阅读,保持“粗俗”!

©Gaurav Sharma2012。照片:管道,美国阿拉斯加的布鲁克斯山脉©迈克尔·S·昆顿/国家地理杂志。

2012年10月23日,星期二

夏威夷’s 原油 reality: Being a petrohead costs!

从中休息‘crude’ norm for visits to the 美国, the Oilholic packed his bags from California 和 headed deep out to the Pacific 和 say ‘Aloha’ to newest 和 50th United State of 夏威夷. It’s good to be 这里in the 科纳 district 的 Big Island 和 realise that Tokyo is a lot closer than London.

有趣的是,夏威夷是美国唯一仍保留国旗和徽章的英国国旗的州。整个国旗本身是英国和美国与夏威夷历史联系的蓄意混合象征,其起源可追溯至约翰·温哥华船长–英国海军军官之后,美国和加拿大的温哥华和阿拉斯加城市’的温哥华山被命名。

什么’s not good being 这里is realising that a 1.3 million plus residents 的se northernmost isles in Polynesia pay the most for their energy 和 electricity needs from amongst their fellow citizens in the US. It is easy to see why, as part dictated by location constraints 夏威夷 presently generates over 75% of its electricity 通过燃烧石油。

Giving the geography 和 physical challenges, most 的 原油 油is shipped either from Alaska 和 California or overseas. Furthermore, the Islands have no pipelines as building these is not possible owing to volcanic 和 seismic activity. Here’一个活跃的火山口的视图– the Halema’uma’你在基拉韦厄火山口(见右上方)。实际上,您可以闻到二氧化硫的气味,就像今天的Oilholic早些时候一样。实际上,整个群岛是几百万年前火山爆发的产物。大岛’由Mauna Kea(休眠)和Mauna Loa(部分活动)组成的五个板块的陆地 the island is 随着技术的发展,Kilaueu仍会喷出熔岩,从而冷却并形成土地。

So both 原油 和 distillates have to be moved by oil tankers 岛屿之间在岛屿或油轮卡车之间。后者  creates regional pricing disparities. For instance in 希洛, the commercial heart 的 Big Island 和 where the tanker docking STations are, 加油站oline is cheaper than 科纳 by almost 40-50 cents per gallon. The latter receives its distillates by road once tankers have docked 在 希洛.

The STate has two refineries both 在 Kapolei on 小岛 of O‘首都檀香山以西20英里处的阿胡– one apiece owned by 特索罗 和 雪佛龙. The bigger 的 two has a 93,700 barrels per day (bpd) 和 is owned by 特索罗; the recent buyer of 血压 ’s Carson facility。但是在一月份,Tesoro将其夏威夷资产 up for sale.

特索罗(Tesoro)于1998年以2.75亿美元的价格从必和必拓美国石油公司(BHP Petroleum Americas)手中购买了该炼油厂。该公司表示,不再将战略重点放在美国中部大陆和西部成本上。 The company expects the sale to be completed by the end 的 year. Its 夏威夷an retail operations, which include 32 加油站 STations, will also be part 的 deal. 雪佛龙 operates Kapolei’另一家日产54,000桶的炼油厂。两者之间有足够的容量来满足夏威夷’令人头疼的需求以及美军在该地区的行动施加的压力。

在这个充满火山活动和潮汐运动的宁静天堂中,潮汐和地热能发电是不可想象的,设施确实存在。实际上,在余下25%的能源结构中,该州是美国八个拥有地热发电的州之一,位居第三。此外,2011年太阳能光伏(PV)容量增加了150%,使夏威夷成为美国光伏容量第11大州。但是,这还远远不够。

一个简单的解决方案 正在尝试的是天然气 –当地官员向石油狂人证实的事情。 环评还指出夏威夷’s朝这个方向移动。奇怪的是,虽然夏威夷几乎不使用大量天然气,但它却是美国少数几个实际生产合成天然气的州之一。在夏威夷大部分地区,从石油发电转向天然气’发电会降低状态’美国天然气和原油价格之间的巨大脱节似乎将继续,因此美国的电费将大大增加。

强大‘gassy’正在采取行动,这里的传闻证据表明,探员正被派往加拿大等国。 8月,夏威夷天然气公司向联邦政府申请了将LNG从西海岸运往夏威夷的许可。据夏威夷天然气公司称,尽管交付将于今年晚些时候开始,但在该项目的第一阶段,液化天然气的到货量将很小。至少这是一个开始,《 1464年州议会法案》现在要求公用事业在2020年12月31日之前提供来自可再生能源的净电力销售的25%,在2030年12月31日之前提供可再生能源的净电力销售的40%。

那’目前,所有这些人都是石油狂人,需要通过老式方式进一步探索大岛 which requires no 原油 or distillates –它是可信赖的旧自行车!回到历史,是詹姆斯·库克船长而不是温哥华,在1778年为西方世界找到了这些小岛。遗憾的是,他在1779年与当地人惨遭惨败之后被煮熟,直到几年后温哥华返回,英国人和当地人之间才实现和平。

Moving away from history, 敬上 leaves you with a peaceful view of Punaluʻu or the 黑沙滩 (见左上方)!当快速流动的熔岩迅速冷却并到达太平洋时,这就是自然的宏伟创造。据美国公园游侠说,海滩’s black sand is made of basalt with a high carbon content. It is a sight to behold 和 the Oilholic is truly beholden! On a visit there, you have a 99.99% chance of spotting the endangered Hawksbill 和 Green turtles lounging on the black sand. For once, 敬上 is glad there are no bloody pipelines in the area blotting the landscape. More from 夏威夷 later - keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

©Gaurav Sharma2012。照片1:Halema’uma’你,基拉韦厄·卡尔德拉。照片2:Punaluʻu-美国夏威夷黑沙海滩© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2012.

2012年10月21日,星期日

投机者,生产& 圣地亚哥’s views

进入‘unified’加利福尼亚圣地亚哥港要几天 get some 原油 views, especially those 的 trading types who have a pad on the city’s 海洋海滩 waterfront looking out to the Pacific. While the view from one 的ir living room windows is a testament to the current serenity 的 Pacific Ocean (左边的例子),市场绝非平静,政界人士将当前的动荡归咎于纸币交易者。

Instead of shrugging 和 quipping ‘typical’, most admit candidly that the ratio of paper (or virtual) barrels versus physical barrels will continue to rise. Some can 和 quite literally do sit on the beach 和 trade with no intention of queuing 在 the end of pipeline in 库欣, 俄克拉荷马州 to collect their 原油 cargo.

轶事证据表明,纸本交易量与实物交易量的比率从千年之初的8:1上升到2012年的33:1。此外,有一章提醒人们,石油狂热者不要忘记公众下注。“They actually don’t even enter the equation but have a flutter on the general direction of 原油 benchmarks 和 in some cases –例如你英国人–所有奖金都是免税的,” he added.

但是,在他最近一次访问美国时, yours truly 看到供需动态的国家正在经历缓慢但确定的变化。实际上,老商人海军在圣地亚哥是一个统一的港口,因为空港和海港彼此相邻,这会告诉您美国原油进出口调度方式正在发生变化。简而言之,由于页岩油(主要是伊格福特公司)和得克萨斯州和北达科他州的常规生产不断增加,经济增长并没有达到预期的速度–美国从海外进口的原油越来越少。

The 国际能源署 projects a fall of 2.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in imports by US refiners 和 reckons the global 油trading map 和 direction of 油consignments would be redrawn by 2017. Not only the US, but many nations with new projects coming onstream would find internal use for their product. 印度’的前景驱动力和沙特阿拉伯’相对较新的Manifa油田就是值得注意的例子。

因此,到2017年,中东原油出口下降了’只能归因于美国的产量增加,但其他生产国的国内消费也要增加。总体而言,IEA估计全球各地区之间的贸易量为3290万桶/日。比去年同期下降160万桶。一些人认为,这可能主要归因于美国对轻质低硫原油需求下降。这种想法可能增加了维托尔(Vitol),嘉能可(Glencore)和甘沃尔(Gunvor)等石油交易商向东的进击。这种情绪也已经对扩大布伦特原油产生了影响’相对于WTI溢价,后者不一定反映全球市场格局。

Elsewhere, while the Oilholic 已经 away, it seems 血压 已经 在 play. In a STatement to the London Stock Exchange on Monday, 血压 said it had agreed 'heads of terms' to sell its 50% STake in 俄国n subsidiary TNK-BP to 俄罗斯石油公司 for US$28 billion via a mixture of US$17.1 billion cash 和 shares representing 12.84% (of 俄罗斯石油公司). 血压 added that it intends to use US$4.8 billion 的 cash payment to purchase a further 5.66% of 俄罗斯石油公司 from the 俄国n government.

血压 董事长Carl-Henric Svanberg说,“TNK-BP 已经 a good investment 和 we are now laying a new foundation for our work in 俄国. 俄罗斯石油公司 is set to be a major player in the global 油industry. This material holding in 俄罗斯石油公司 will, we believe, give 血压 solid returns.”

与BP’AAR的寡头合作伙伴已经与 俄罗斯石油公司, the market is in a STate of fervour over the whole of TNK-BP being bought out by the 俄国n STate energy company. Were this to happen, 俄罗斯石油公司 would have a massive 原油 油production capacity of 3.15 million bpd 和 pass a sizeable chunk of 俄国n production from private hands to STate control. It would also pile on more debt on an already indebted company. Its net debt is nearing twice its EBITA 和 a swoop for the STake of both partners in TNK-BP would need some clever financing.

在企业方面,加拿大政府拒绝了马来西亚国家石油公司 以54亿美元竞标Progress Energy Resources。后者周日表示,对渥太华“感到失望”’s decision. 公司 added that it would 在tempt to find a possible solution for the deal. Industry Minister Christian Paradis said in a STatement on Friday that he had sent a letter to 国油 indicating he was "not satisfied that the proposed investment is likely to be of net benefit to 加拿大."

Meanwhile civil STrife is in full swing in 科威特 according to the BBC World Service as police used tear 加油站 和 STun grenades to disperse large numbers of people demonstrating against the dissolution of parliament by Emir Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah whose family have ruled the country for over 200 years.

6月,科威特一家法院宣布2月将其拥有50个席位的议会选举为选举,这使以伊斯兰为首的反对派大获全胜,无效,恢复了亲政府的议会。从那以后工厂里一直有麻烦。科威特动乱只是一个偶然的脚注– the 国际能源署’这篇博客文章在上面引用了该公司的预测,到2017年美国炼油厂的原油进口量将下降260万桶/日,几乎是科威特目前的日产量(只是为了说明这一点)!那’都是圣地亚哥人!它’快要说了‘Aloha’去夏威夷。但在此之前,奥胡派(Oilholic)让您对中途岛号(USS Midway)的看法右上方), once an aircraft carrier involved in Vietnam 和 Gulf War I 和 currently firmly docked in 圣地亚哥 harbour as a museum. In its heydays, the 中途岛号 housed over 4,000 naval personnel 和 over 130 aircraft.

据发言人说,中途岛号’该机为核动力,总油箱容量为250万加仑柴油,为飞机提供动力,可容纳150万加仑飞机燃料。它每天消耗250,000加仑的柴油,而在飞行任务期间,运营期间的喷气燃料消耗为每天150,000加仑。现在’在我们拥有核动力航母之前就大声疾呼以保护和服务。继续阅读,继续阅读‘crude’!

©Gaurav Sharma2012。照片1:圣地亚哥海洋海滩。照片2:中途岛号航空母舰,美国加利福尼亚© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2012.

2012年9月28日,星期五

非欧佩克的供应,波动和其他事项

One 的 big beasts 的 non-OPEC supply jungle – 俄国 – held its latest high level meeting with 欧佩克 earlier this week. Along with the customary niceties came the expected soundbites when Alexander Novak, Minister of Energy 的 俄国n Federation 和 Abdalla Salem El-Badri, 欧佩克 Secretary General, met in Vienna on Tuesday.
 
两名男子陪同“high-level” delegations exchanged views on the current 油market situation 和 “underscored the importance of STable 和 predictable markets for the long term health 的 industry 和 investments, 和 above all, the wellbeing 的 global economy.”
 
欧佩克也在关注俄罗斯’s Presidency 的 G-20 in 2013 where the cartel has only one representative on the table in the shape of 沙特阿拉伯, which quite frankly represents itself rather than the block. However, non-OPEC suppliers are aplenty –加拿大,巴西,墨西哥和美国与俄罗斯人一道列举了主要国家。英国人和澳大利亚人也很少共享碳氢化合物。
 
Perhaps in light of that, 欧佩克 和 俄国 have proposed to broaden their cooperation 和 discuss the possible establishment of a joint working group focused on information exchange 和 analysis 的 petroleum industry. The two parties will next meet in the second quarter of 2013 by which time, unless there is a geopolitical flare-up or a massive turnaround in the global economy, most believe healthy non-OPEC supply growth would have actually been offset by 欧佩克 cuts.
 
所以油鬼认为’在9月25日的会议上,您所看到的可能不止于此…er…按公报。此外,对于非欧佩克参与者,我们在开玩笑吗?市场猜想是,鉴于宏观经济形势更为广泛,非欧佩克国家的供应增长本身最多可能不会温和。
 
法国兴业银行全球石油研究主管迈克·维特纳(Mike Wittner)指出,非欧佩克的石油供应增长是由北美的快速增长带动的:美国页岩油致密油以及加拿大的油砂和沥青。预计北美的供应量在2012年将增加每天104万桶,在2013年将增加75万桶。与2012年相比,明年非欧佩克总体增长水平较高的原因是今年’在叙利亚,也门和南苏丹的收缩 已经发生,不再重复。
 
“We are projecting output in Syria 和 Yemen flat through 2013, with disruptions continuing; we are forecasting only small increases in South Sudan beginning well into next year, 作为 recent pipeline agreement with Sudan appears quite tenuous 在 this point. With non-OPEC supply growth roughly the same as global demand growth next year, 欧佩克 will have to cut 原油 production to balance the market,” he added.
 
With more than anecdotal evidence 的 沙特已经削减产量, 法国兴业银行 reckons total non-OPEC supply plus 欧佩克 NGLs production may increase by 0.93 million bpd in 2013, compared to 0.75 million bpd in 2012. Compared to their previous forecast, non-OPEC supply plus 欧佩克 NGLs growth 已经 revised up by 50,000 bpd in 2012 和 down by 60,000 bpd in 2013. 那’s moderate alright!
 
根据维特纳的观点,关键点是沙特阿拉伯并没有取代伊朗减少流量的最后一次增量,由于欧盟和美国的制裁,伊朗的流量减少从5月至7月下降了300 kb / d。“故意缺乏沙特替代品的数量是– in effect –沙特减产;或者,如果愿意的话,是沙特允许伊朗无意,不情愿地通过削减产量和出口来帮助欧佩克的其他国家,” he concluded.
 
让’s see what emerges in Vienna 在 the 十二月 meeting of ministers, but 欧佩克 原油 production is unlikely to average above 31.5 million bpd in the third quarter of 2012 和 is likely to be cut further as market fundamentals remain decidedly bearish. In fact, were it not for the geopolitical premium provided by 伊朗’的恶作剧和谈论中国的刺激措施,周三的沉重损失本来还会更加沉重,布伦特原油价格仍不可能维持在110美元/桶上方。
 
与此相关的是,根据11月的结算价,布伦特原油较WTI的溢价一度升至每桶20.06美元;这是自8月16日以来首次突破20美元大关。关于保费的脚注, 彭博社报道 that 巴肯 原油 weakened to the smallest premium over WTI 油in three weeks as Enbridge apportioned deliveries on pipelines in the region in Tuesday’s trading.
 
The 西 Canadian Select, 加拿大’作为最常见的基准,通常也比WTI折价出售。但是,而不是“double-discount” (factoring in WTI’比布伦特的折扣)值得担心的事情, 国家邮政专栏作家Jameson Berkow 写下如何将其变成优势!
 
但是回到欧洲,苏克敦金融研究公司(Sucden Financial Research)分析师Myrto Sokou感到,随着欧元区的到来,非常动荡和紧张的交易时段将继续‘市场忧虑打压市场气氛。“周四早盘反弹,此后,有关中国进一步刺激经济方案的讨论日益增多,该方案进一步改善了市场情绪并增加了风险偏好,” she said.
 
但是,Sokou认为市场仍然集中在西班牙,因为考虑到其2013年第一份预算草案的消息。“It is quite a crucial time for the markets, especially following the recent refusal from Germany, Holland 和 Finland to allow ESM funds to cover legacy assets, so that leaves the Spanish Government to fund their Banks,” she added.
 
在企业方面,加拿大人发现自己正在努力应对 尼克森问题 as public sentiment is turning against 中海油 ’s offer for the company just as its shareholders approved the deal. Many Members of Parliament have also voiced their concerns against a deal with the Chinese NOC. For its part, if a Dow Jones report is to be believed, 中海油 is raising US$6 billion via a one-year term loan to help fund the possible purchase of 尼克森. The Harper administration is yet to give its regulatory approval.
 
同时,印度政府已确认其NOC之一– ONGC Videsh – has made a bid to acquire STakes in Canadian 油sands assets owned by 康菲石油公司 with a total projected market valuation of US$5 billion. 康菲石油公司 aims to sell about 50% of its STake in emerging 油sands assets, according to news reports in 加拿大. Looks like one non-OPEC destination just won’不要停止抢占头条新闻!
 
Moving away from 加拿大, Thailand’s STate 油company 聚四氟乙烯 has finalised arrangements for its US$3.1 billion share offer for 莫桑比克’的海湾能源。今年早些时候, 聚四氟乙烯 赢了个 湾的持久收购战 在壳牌上。总结起来,石油狂人获悉,苏格兰塔利拉巴丁酒厂将成为世界上第一家将其副产物转化为高级生物燃料的威士忌酒厂,能够为以汽油或柴油为燃料的车辆提供动力。
 
位于珀斯郡布莱克福德的独立麦芽威士忌生产商已与位于爱丁堡的公司Celtic Renewables Ltd签署了谅解备忘录,该公司已开发了利用威士忌生产副产品生产生物丁醇的技术。现在’值得喝,但是它’所有人都在眼前!继续阅读,继续阅读‘crude’!
 
©Gaurav Sharma2012。美国北达科他州的石油钻探现场©Phil Schermeister /国家地理。

2012年6月22日,星期五

Price correction, Saudis hurt 加拿大 & 俄国!

最后,我们有 a 价格修正 which saw both global 油benchmarks reflect the wider macroeconomic climate accompanied by a dip in STock markets 和 a downgrade of 15 的 world’穆迪最大的银行’s。 NYMEX WTI远期期货合约周四跌至每桶80美元以下,这是自2011年10月以来的首次,而布伦特原油期货大约在上次检查时抵制90美元的交易价90.77美元。

基准已经显示了近三个月的看跌趋势,但是它们仍未反映出更广泛的宏观经济环境。直到昨天。的‘only way is up’如当前情况所示,基于线性供需排列的逻辑逻辑简化了该论点。美联储(Fed)缺乏QE3,美元走强以及中国,印度和欧洲数据疲弱等因素最终影响了市场人气。–不是提供完美的风暴,而是提供完美的现实! 德国商业信心水平下降 加剧了持续一段时间的看跌趋势。

Despite negative sentiments 和 the possibility of 布伦特 trading below US$100 per barrel for prolonged periods between now 和 Q1 2013, 欧佩克 did not cut its quota last week. 沙特阿拉伯, which is so dominant within the cartel, 其实想降低价格 因为布伦特原油价格可能跌至每桶85美元。

从地缘政治的角度来看,沙特人不仅对伊朗(可能是高兴地)施加了制裁打击,而且还对俄罗斯(也许是有意地)和加拿大(几乎肯定是在不知不觉中)发出了坏消息。沙特与伊朗的竞争已经不止一次‘crude’规模,但几乎可以肯定,与俄罗斯一道围绕市场支配地位。油鬼’的假设是,当 俄罗斯产量在2009年首次超过沙特阿拉伯.

作为世界’s leading producer for over two years, Moscow was causing Riyadh some discomfort. So the Saudis raised their game with the Libyan conflict 和 伊朗ian sanctions giving them ample excuses to do so. Constantly flouting 欧佩克 production quotas, 今年2月,沙特阿拉伯从俄罗斯夺回了头把交椅. Now with prices in reverse, it is the 俄国ns who are sweating having rather bizarrely balanced their budget by factoring in an 油price in the circa of US$110 to US$120 per barrel.

几个独立机构,评级机构(例如S&P) 和 even former finance minister 阿列克谢·库德林 repeatedly warned 俄国 about overreliance on oil. The sector accounts for nearly 70% of 俄国n exports 和 Vladimir Putin has done little to alter that dynamic both as prime minister 和 president in successive tenures.

Realising the 俄国n position was not going to change over the short term 和 with a near 10% (or above) dip in production 在 some 的ir major fields; the Saudis ramped up their production. A masterstroke or precisely a deft calculated hand played by Minister 阿里·纳奈米 planked on the belief that amid bearish trends the 俄国ns simply do not have the prowess, or in fact the incentive, to pump 和 dump more 原油 on the market has worked.

从理论上讲,俄罗斯的石油产量可能增加到1000万桶/日,但在这种宏观经济环境下,实际上很难实现。因此市场(和沙特阿拉伯人)期望 俄罗斯将减少其5000亿美元的储备,以平衡短期至中期的账目,而不是增加产量。此外,除非俄罗斯人投资,否则沙特人’手只会得到加强,他们的地位‘crude’刺激提供者得到加强。

加拿大’s 油sands business while not a direct Saudi target is indeed an accidental victim. The impact of a fall in the price of 原油 will also be very different as 加拿大’经济远比俄罗斯多样化’s. Instead of a decline in production, the ongoing 油sands 和 shale prospection points to a potential rise.

Canadian prospection remains positive for Canadian consumers 和 exporters alike; provincial 和 federal governments want it, justice wants it, PM wants it 和 the public certainly want it. However, developing the Athabasca 油sands 和 Canadian shale plays (as well as US’ 巴肯 play) is capital 和 labour intensive.

For the 油sands – holding the world’s second largest proven 油resource after 沙特阿拉伯’s Dhahran region – to be profitable, 原油 price should not plummet below US$60 per barrel. 石油狂人对卡尔加里的三次访问 和 interaction with colleagues 在 卡普, advisory, legal 和 energy firms in 艾伯塔省 between 2008 和 2011 threw up a few points worth reiterating amidst this current 原油 价格修正 phase. First of all, anecdotal evidence suggests that while it would rather not, 艾伯塔省’省政府甚至可以将价格下跌至每桶35至40美元。

其次,在2007年第二季度至2008年第一季度之间,当原油价格达到令人眼花height乱的高位时,油田服务公司和工程公司以高价聘请了人才,但六个月后,由于金融危机,价格实际上暴跌至每桶37美元,因此才解雇了他们。危机。经过一轮裁员,到2010年,卡尔加里和麦克默里堡又一次出现了招聘狂潮。行业的周期性性质意味着情况将会如此。加拿大人仍然致力于石油&天然气行业,在此博客中’拙劣的见解可以比俄国人更好地应对周期性的起伏。

最后,加拿大既没有国家石油公司,也不是任何行业卡特尔的成员。但出于纯粹的经济学考虑,它也需要大约每桶80美元的价格。如果价格暴跌,或者沙特人沉迷于战术生产策略(如目前的情况),您将处于平稳状态,’宁愿是加拿大人而不是俄罗斯人。

Oilholic长期以来一直怀疑沙特人将加拿大人视为保险业的同伴,‘石油需求破坏’ 和 vying for a slice 的 American market; for them the 伊朗ians 和 俄国ns are just market miscreants. 那 the market itself is mischievous 和 Canadians might join the 'miscreants' list if proposed North American pipelines come onstream is another matter! 那’所有人都在眼前!继续阅读,保持“粗俗”!

©Gaurav Sharma2012。照片1:俄罗斯千斤顶© Lukoil. Photo 2: Red Square, Moscow, 俄国 ©Gaurav Sharma2004。照片3: Downtown 卡尔加里, 艾伯塔省, 加拿大 © 高拉夫·夏尔马 2011.

2012年4月9日,星期一

Tankers in 英吉利湾 & 加拿大's Confidence

Oilholic于今天下午从郊区出发前往温哥华市区,在Burrard街上行驶,在Davie街上右转,沿着Jervis街向下一直直达Sunset Beach,从而可以欣赏到 英吉利湾 which is quite a sight. Standing bang in the middle 的 beach, to your left would be Granville Island, the Burrard Bridge overlooking it 和 Granville Bridge reaching out to it.

To your 对 would be two more beaches 和 Stanley Park on the 温哥华 Downtown Peninsula 和 looking out to the horizon you’ll see pristine waters 的 Bay littered with tankers (请参见左上方的图片,点击放大)。该观点是加拿大西部的辩护’s growing 原油 credentials 和 its clout in the world of 油& 加油站 exports. Yours truly 和 other onlookers would often spot the odd 油or LNG tanker on the horizon making its way to or from 温哥华 Harbour 和 docking bays on the inlet towards Port 穆迪. However, this afternoon the Oilholic counted 12 tankers - the most 敬上 has ever counted on five previous visits to the Bay!

人们对加拿大的能源业务有了新的信心,而且制造业领先的东海岸/东部主导的宏观经济动态也显着地改变了经济实力的平衡。 of the 1950年代开始以自然资源为主导,自2005年左右开始由西海岸/西方主导的经济。此外,以蒙特利尔和多伦多为枢纽的移动金融服务行业现在看起来越来越向西。律师事务所和咨询公司通过扩大在卡尔加里和温哥华的业务以及合作伙伴网络,在加拿大西部增加了业务。

卡尔加里 now has more corporate headquarters than Montreal. Of the top 20 most profitable Canadian companies by exchange filings in 2010, eight were natural resources companies with a 西 Canadian slant (viz. Suncor, Barrick, Imperial Oil, PCS, Teck, CNR, Goldcorp 和 EnCana).

A recently spurned merger between natural resources 和 banking sector(s) dominated STock exchanges of London (LSE) 和 Toronto (TSX) would have been ideal. But much to the dismay 的 Oilholic, the Canadians involved wanted to go it alone 和 whether you agree or not. In more ways than one LSE 和 TSX are rivals, especially when it comes to 在tracting mining companies.

在渥太华改头换面–首相斯蒂芬·哈珀(Stephen Harper)是艾伯塔省的一个人。加拿大银行行长马克·卡尼,首席大法官贝弗利·麦克拉克林和无与伦比的Rt。老公乔·奥利弗– the country’的自然资源部长,也是七国集团中最具声望的部长级部长– are all ‘Western’ Canadians.

自2001年起每年访问加拿大一次,石油狂人见证了加拿大政治和国家的转型’是经济的第一手资料,从积极意义上讲,它已经非同寻常。哈珀’s “油浸沙海洋” in Northern 艾伯塔省 has more 的 原油 STuff than any other 原油 exporting country bar 沙特阿拉伯. 让’别忘了沙特人’储备头寸已经由加拿大阿美公司核实’s已受到半个世界的审查’是不同政治倾向和说服力的独立验证者。

The total value 加拿大’s natural resources according to various estimates 在 2009 prices comes in 在 US$1.1 trillion to US$1.6 trillion, with the bituminous bit 和 shale alone accounting for 在 least 45% per cent of that depending on which financial analyst or economist you speak to.

“Canada’s biggest advantage as an 油exporter in the eyes 的 world is that it’没有沙特阿拉伯。此外,在一个充满不良品味的行业中,与加拿大人打交道是一个可喜的变化,”匿名时打趣一名爱国分析家。

In the 油business there are no moral absolutes 和 no linear path to the Promised ‘Crude’ Land. 加拿大 will have its fair share of challenges related to extracting, refining 和 marketing the oil. The will to do so is certainly there 和 so are the buyers. 油鬼’s 木材贸易类比 has won him quite a few beers from Canadians 和 pragmatic macro analysts who loved it. There is an unassailable truth 这里– American dithering 和 often unjust punitive action against Canadian timber exports in the 1990s lead a Liberal party-governed 加拿大 to look Eastwards to Japan 和 China.

快进到2011-2012年,历史与奥巴马总统重演’在Keystone XL上抖动(尽管TransCanada ’s reputation in relation to leaks has not helped either). Akin to the 1990s, there are other buyers in town for the Canadian 原油 STuff, with 印度 joining the tussle for Canadian 在tention along with Japan, South Korea 和 China.

当自由党领导的加拿大联邦政府在1990年代寻找其他地方来推销和出售其主导的自然资源时,如果美国政府认为现今的保守党政府拥有议会多数席位,并且拥有像史蒂芬·哈珀(Stephen Harper)这样的强大人物韩元 ’谈到石油,同样(并且要早些),他们比任何人都在开玩笑。

The presence of Korean, 印度n 和 Chinese NOCs can be felt alongside top 20 IOCs in 卡尔加里. Not a single 油major worth its weight in 原油 油has chosen to ignore the 油sands, just as onlookers 在 Sunset Beach can’t ignore tankers on the 英吉利湾 horizon. 那’所有人都在眼前!继续阅读,继续阅读‘crude’!

©Gaurav Sharma2012。照片:石油& LNG tankers 在英吉利湾地平线上, British Columbia, 加拿大 © 高拉夫·夏尔马 2012.

2012年4月2日,星期一

原油 market’告别海湾地区

It’快要说了goodbye to the 海湾地区 head north 的 border to 不列颠哥伦比亚省, 加拿大 but not before some 原油 market conjecture 和 savouring the view of 恶魔岛 Island Prison from Fisherman’的码头。当地政客 told 敬上 it would be an ideal home for 投机者, 在 which point the owner 的 cafe ‘with a portfolio’我们坐在那里打趣说政客也可以加入他们!那’人们对海湾地区的热爱–每个人都有一个坦率的坦率意见。

不幸的是,对于有关市场投机的辩论者,恶魔岛(左图) 通常被称为“The Rock” 和 once home to the likes of Al Capone 和 Machin Gun Kelly was decommissioned in 1963 can no longer be home to either 投机者 or politicians, though it seems quite a few seagulls kind of like it!

不责怪投机者或政治家 由于市场趋势仍然基本看涨,这里的一些本地评论员,那些回到伦敦市的人以及确实要在卑诗省温哥华集会的那些油腻人,几乎一致认为他们对未来两个季度保持对油价的敏感度通过混合的能源股,俄罗斯股票,自然资源将外汇(特别是澳大利亚和加拿大元)联系起来,最后但并非最不重要的是“intelligent play”在期货市场上。

Nonetheless the second quarter opened on Monday in negative territory as WTI 原油 油slid lower to retest the US$102 per barrel area, while 布伦特 已经 under pressure trading just above US$122 per barrel level on the 冰. “The European equity markets are also trading lower as risk appetite 已经 limited,”苏克敦金融研究公司的Myrto Sokou指出。

保护一个’s portfolio from short-dated volatility would be a challenge worth embracing 和 法国兴业银行 recommends “购买(廉价)短期波动,以保护投资组合免受伊朗不断升级的政治风险的影响。” (点击基准图可放大)

迈克·威特纳, a veteran 油market commentator 在 法国兴业银行, remains bullish along with many of his peers 和 with some justification. 欧佩克 和 Saudi spare capacity is already tight, 和 will soon become even tighter, due to sanctions on 伊朗, says Wittner, 和 the already very bullish scenario would continue to be driven by fundamental.

Analysts point to one or more 的 following: 
  • Compared to three months ago, fears of a very bearish tail risk have subsided to an extent (e.g. Eurozone, US data) 和 macro environment is gradually turning supportive.
  • 同时,仍然存在非常看涨的尾巴风险的风险(例如,针对伊朗的战争或霍尔木兹海峡局势)。
  • OECD 原油 油inventory levels are 在 five year lows.
  • 欧佩克的闲置产能非常低,仅为每天190万桶,其中仅沙特阿拉伯就有160万桶。
  • Ongoing significant non-OPEC supply disruptions in South Sudan, Syria, 和 Yemen thought to be in the circa of 0.6 million bpd.
  • Broad based appetite for risk assets 已经 STrong.
  • Low interest rate 和 high liquidity environment is bullish.
在经济方面,惠誉评级在最新的《全球经济展望》(GEO)季度报告中预测,主要发达经济体的经济增长在2012年将保持疲软,为1.1%,随后在2013年将小幅增长至1.8%。经济复苏缓慢,过去几个月对全球经济的短期风险有所缓解。

Compared with the previous Fitch GEO in 十二月 2011, the agency has only 边际地 revised its global GDP forecasts. The agency forecasts global growth, based on market exchange rates, 在 2.3% for 2012 和 2.9% in 2013, compared with 2.4% 和 3.0% previously.

惠誉预计,欧元区在主要发达经济体中的表现最弱。2012年实际GDP预计萎缩0.2%,2013年仅增长1.1%。可观的财政紧缩措施以及紧缩信贷条件对欧元区的持续影响更广泛的经济仍然是增长的主要障碍。”惠誉主权团队主管Gergely Kiss说。

In contrast to problems in Europe, the recovery in the US has gained momentum over past quarters. Growth is supported by the STronger-than-expected improvement in labour market conditions 和 indicators pointing to STrengthening business 和 household confidence.

In line with the underlying improvement in fundamentals Fitch has upgraded its 2012 US growth forecast to 2.2% from 1.8%, whilst keeping the 2013 forecast unchanged 在 2.6%. For Japan 和 the UK, Fitch forecasts GDP to increase 1.9% 和 0.5% respectively for 2012.

Economic growth 的 金砖四国 countries is expected to remain robust over the forecast horizon, 在 6.3% in 2012 和 6.6% in 2013, well above MAE or global growth rates. Nevertheless, 巴西 in particular, but also China 和 印度 slowed during 2011 和 China is expected to slow further this year.

While on the subject of economics, Wittner of 法国兴业银行, regards a shutdown 的 霍尔木兹海峡 as a low-probability but high-impact scenario with 布伦特 potentially spiking to US$150-$200. “在这种情况下,股票市场将急剧调整。根据经验,在震荡后的第一年,如果油价每桶永久上涨10美元,将使全球GDP增长削减0.2%,” he concludes.

那’s all for the moment folks! 油鬼 leaves you with a view of driving on Golden Gate Bridge on a sunny day 和 downtown 旧金山 as he dashes off to catch a flight to 温哥华. Yours truly will be examining 加拿大’s role as a geopolitically STable non-OPEC supplier of 原油 while there. Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2012. Graph: World 原油 油benchmarks © 法国兴业银行. 照片1:恶魔岛。 图2:旧金山市区。图3:在美国加利福尼亚的金门大桥上行驶。© 高拉夫·夏尔马.

2011年12月7日,星期三

加拿大, 印度 pitch to world & each other!

One country aims to be a leading producer (Canada) 和 one is projected to be a leading consumer or 在 least among them (India), so the Oilholic has clubbed them together for purposes of blogging about what officials from each country said 和 did 这里today 在 the 20th WPC.

Starting with 加拿大, its ministerial session complete with a RCMP officer on either side 的 STage saw 塞尔吉·杜邦, Deputy Minister, Natural Resources 加拿大 和 Cal Dallas, 艾伯塔省’政府间,国际和土著事务部长概述了他们的国家’会议的能源目标是由Borden Ladner Gervais LLP的律师Neil McCrank主持。

加拿大人坚持认为,在油砂开发和投资方面–其中有相当大的兴趣 here – the country’能源战略在内部和国际上都是透明的,负责任的和负责任的。他们还概述了支持其行业的计划,类似于许多竞争对手 oil & gas 通过赠款出口司法管辖区–主要是省政府’的能源创新基金。

据杜邦副部长称,这将伴随着可再生能源的开发以及对碳捕集与封存的20亿加元投资。尽管严格的投资指导原则下,加拿大确实欢迎外国直接投资(FDI)开展业务。证明在布丁里– not even one top 10 international 油major worth its balance sheet has chosen to ignore projects in the 艾伯塔省 油sands.

在听完部长级会议后,奥林匹亚教徒有理由相信,涉及环境问题 versus developing 油& 加油站 projects who would you rather reason with – an open democracy like 加拿大 or Chavez about Venezuela’重油?鉴于最近发生的事件,人们只需提高 梯形XL问题 作为 Oilholic did with Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) President 戴夫·科利尔 on a 今年初访问卡尔加里. After all, one wonders, what is the Canadian patience threshold when it comes to US exports given that new buyers are in town chiefly China, Korea 和 印度.

“Well Canadians are a patient lot. The US remains a major export market for us. The delays associated with the 梯形XL project are frustrating but our medium term belief is that the construction 的 pipeline would be approved,” said session moderator 和 member 的 Canadian delegation Neil McCrank of 大块头.

He also believes the new buyers in town can be happily accommodated with the 油sands seeing investments from China, South Korea 和 印度 (among others). “我们承认,从阿尔伯塔省通过不列颠哥伦比亚省通往太平洋海岸的输油管道也存在困难–但是我们正在努力,只有加拿大人才能耐心,务实和道德地解决这些问题!” McCrank concludes.

There is certain truth in that. Despite being an 油producer, 加拿大 does not have a national 油company (NOCs) to trumpet 和 shows no inclination to shun FDI in 艾伯塔省. One 的 aforementioned investors, whether ethical or not, is 印度 which has a ‘mere’ 14 NOCs all aching to explore 和 secure fresh 油reserves to help meet its burgeoning demand for oil.

Of the 14, some four are in the Fortune 500 和 operate in 20 international jurisdictions; the loudest 的se is ONGC Videsh Limited (or OVL) which among other countries is also looking 在 加拿大 as confirmed by both sides. 印度’石油部长&天然气S. Jaipal Reddy在WPC上表现出绝对乐观的态度,向世界表明了他的国家’NOC将成为强大的项目合作伙伴。

Over a period 的 last 12 months, the Oilholic notes that 印度n NOCs have invested in admirably STrategic terms but overseas forays have also seen them in Syria 和 Sudan which is politically unpalatable for some but perhaps ‘fair game’为印度寻求供应安全。加拿大–印度国家石油公司是否应该增加在艾伯塔省的曝光率–鉴于中国,从地缘政治的角度来看会很有趣’也是加拿大合伙人的公开立场。

但是,就印度对俄罗斯和FSU共和国的投资而言,印度官员关于海外进军的唯一公开报价。强大的俄印代表团在第20届WPC的间隙举行会议,讨论印度国家石油公司可能对萨哈林项目进行的投资。分别来自ONGC和GAIL的官员告诉Oilholic,他们热衷于购买哈萨克斯坦的股份’喀什干油田(据信其中蕴藏着9到160亿桶石油),并根据北里海生产分成协议加入该财团,该协议看到了七家公司的股权–埃尼(16.81%),壳牌(16.81%),道达尔(16.81%),埃克森美孚(16.81%),KazMunayGas(16.81%),康菲石油(8.4%)和Inpex(7.56%)。

但是传闻中的卖家– 康菲石油公司 – quashed all rumours 和 instead said it was actually checking out material prospects in 哈萨克斯坦 itself. It also detailed its plans for 加拿大 和 shale plays. 那’目前所有人都是如此。继续阅读,继续阅读‘crude’!

©Gaurav Sharma,2011年。照片1:在第20届石油大会上的加拿大部长级会议(从左至右:尼尔·麦克兰克,黑尔格集团,加州达拉斯,艾伯塔省政府,加拿大自然资源部副部长谢尔·杜邦。照片2:印度部长级会议(坐在右起第三:印度’石油部长&天然气(Jaipal Reddy)© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2011.

2011年11月29日,星期二

为什么选择Keystone XL’延迟不是一件坏事!

Over the last fortnight the Oilholic 已经 examining the fallout from the US government’s announcement delaying a decision on the proposed 梯形XL pipeline 和 its decision to explore alternative routes for it from 艾伯塔省, 加拿大 to 德州, 美国 (查看地图。点击图片放大)。

首先,它给加拿大总理斯蒂芬·哈珀(Stephen Harper)一个机会,吹响了他的国家在能源领域新发现的自信。在美国国务院宣布延期后仅三天,哈珀就在奥巴马在夏威夷举行的亚太经济合作论坛上与奥巴马总统会面时说,他的政府正在努力大力推进一项面向亚太地区的贸易战略。 。

哈珀对总统表达了强烈的口吻,并告诉记者,由于该项目现在将推迟一年以上,因此加拿大必须(也)将目光投向别处。 “这突显了加拿大为什么必须加大努力以确保其能够在美国以外,特别是向亚洲供应能源。同时,加拿大将在这方面加紧努力,我已明确告知总统,” he said.

Of course, this version differs significantly from what the White House said but it gives you a flavour 的 frustration being felt in 加拿大. The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) says the US government’鉴于已经完成了三年的广泛分析,而且在美国政府之后,这项决定令人失望’自己的环境影响评估确定了拟议的Keystone XL管道路线不会造成不当的环境影响。

卡普总裁Dave Collyer, 石油狂在三月份遇到了谁, 说过,“Keystone XL与美国不再使用更多的石油有关,’关于美国的来源’s 油–加拿大或其他地方。它’也涉及加拿大和美国之间的共同经济和地缘政治利益。虽然Keystone的延误是不幸的,但我们尊重美国的监管程序,并仍然乐观地认为管道将因其强大的环境,经济和能源安全优势而获得批准。”

卡普 also seeks to look 在 the positives 和 maintains that Canadian 油sands production will not be impacted in the near term 和 other alternatives are being pursued to ensure market access over the medium term. Simply put, delaying 梯形XL will motivate exploration of other markets for Canadian 原油 油products 作为 Canadian PM has quite clearly STated.

评级机构穆迪(Moody's)认为,超越地缘政治的局面,Keystone XL的延迟对TransCanada Pipelines(TCPL)来说是正面的– the project saga’s chief protagonist – although it does not change TCPL's A3 Senior Unsecured rating or STable outlook given the relative size 的 梯形XL project to TCPL's existing businesses.

In a note to clients on Nov 11, the agency noted that the announcement was likely to cause a material delay in the potential construction of that pipeline, which will actually benefit TCPL's liquidity, leverage 和 free cash flow, providing the company with a greater financial cushion with which to undertake the project if 和 when it is fully approved.

穆迪's also does not expect the Company to undertake share buybacks with the funds not invested in 梯形XL due to the approval delay. TCPL's liquidity will improve 作为 construction delay will defer over $5 billion of additional capex (compared to TCPL's total assets of approximately $46 billion).

此外,与延误或改线相关的额外费用的75%预计将主要由托运人而非TCPL承担。穆迪(Moody's)期望托运人同意项目延期,但这并不确定。

“While the delay may reduce TCPL's growth prospects in the medium term, that is not a major influence in the Company's credit rating. Should the project ultimately be cancelled, 穆迪's expects that the pipe, which is the largest component 的 $1.9 billion that TCPL has already invested in the project 和 which is already reflected in the company's financial STatements, would be repurposed to other projects that would presumably generate additional cash to TCPL over the medium term,” it concludes.

Since then, the US STate of 内布拉斯加 和 TCPL have agreed to find a new route for the STalled pipeline that would ensure it does not pass through environmentally sensitive lands in the STate. The deal with 内布拉斯加 would see the STate fund new STudies to find a route that would avoid the Sandhills region 和 the Ogallala aquifer.

However, the deal will not alter the timeline for a US Federal review, according to the State Department. 那 means, 作为 Oilholic noted earlier,直到2012年大选后,奥巴马政府才需要处理这个问题。虽然那’聪明的政治,愚蠢的能源经济学。目前看来,加拿大人的损失要少于美国人。

Moving away from 梯形XL, the 原油 markets began the week with a bang 作为 冰 布伦特 forward month futures contract climbed over US$3 to US$109 per barrel but the rise across the pond was more muted with WTI ending the day 在 US$98.20 unable to hold on to earlier gains. Jack Pollard, analyst 在 Sucden Financial Research, feels that Middle-Eastern tensions provided significant support to the upside momentum.

“Yesterday we had the first day of Egyptian elections, with the final vote not due until early to middle 一月 和 the interim prospect of further violence could maintain volatility. Furthermore, the pressure on Syria increased even further with some suggesting a no-fly zone could be in the offing,” he said.

但是,石油和波拉德同意主要的市场驱动力来自伊朗。“自11月8日国际原子能机构(IAEA)报告以来,我们已经看到供应中断可能导致原油价格上涨’相对于其他商品体系的弹性。星期一,我们听到有关伊朗的报道’中国政府已正式投票赞成修改与英国的外交关系,并驱逐了大使。如果情况进一步升级,则布伦特原油潜在的上涨空间可能会大大增加,而布伦特原油价格上涨的可能性会过大,” Pollard concludes.

©Gaurav Sharma2011。地图:加拿大的所有提案& US 原油 Oil Pipelines ©CAPP(点击地图放大)

2011年11月21日,星期一

UK PM flags up 原油 credentials

Oilholic参加了英国游说团体CBI’s annual conference earlier today listening to UK Prime Minister 戴维·卡梅伦 flag-up his 原油 credentials (admittedly among other matters). The PM feels investment in the Oil & Gas sector 和 British expertise in it could be part of his wider economic rebalancing act.

“仅在过去的几周中,我就拜访了£BP在北海的45亿新投资…And today I hosted Britain 和 Norway signing a 10-year deal to secure 加油站 supplies 和 develop together over £1 billion of Norwegian 加油站 fields,” he said.

那 deal of course was part of British utility Centrica’价值10年的协议£13 billion to buy natural 加油站 from Norway's Statoil 和 jointly develop fields.

"Gas plays a central role in powering our economy, 和 will continue to do so for decades to come. Today's agreement will help to ensure the continued security 和 competitiveness of 加油站 supplies to Britain, from a trusted 和 reliable neighbour," the PM concluded.

Admittedly, from a 加油站oline consumers’历届英国政府的立场早已失去了街头信誉 在很久以前谈到燃油税时;如果要依靠UK ONS,相对而言,目前的地段价格仍然会更好。英国统计机构上周宣布,政府’■在2009/10年度,汽油泵价格所占的份额下降至每磅66便士;从2001/02年的将近81便士。

The data also show that the poorest 20% of UK households paid almost twice as much 的ir income in duties on fuel than the richest 20%. In 2009/10, the poorest 20% of households paid 3.5% 的ir 税后可支配收入,前20%仅占1.8%。总体而言,英国普通家庭将其可支配收入的2.3%用于燃油税。

但是,以现金计算,最富有的20%的家庭所支付的金额几乎是最底层20%的家庭所付金额的三倍。在2009/10年度,最富有的20%的家庭花费了£汽油税为1,062,相比之下£最贫困的20%的家庭需要365。总体而言,英国家庭的平均支出£在2009/10年度征收677的燃油税。

最后, the UK, US 和 加拿大 announced new sanctions against 伊朗 following growing concern over its nuclear programme in wake 的 IAEA report. In a STatement the US government said that 伊朗's petrochemical, 油and 加油站 industry (including supply of technical components for Upstream 和 downstream ops) 和 its financial sector would be targeted by the sanctions.

加拿大将无一例外地禁止石化,石油和天然气行业的所有出口,而英国政府将要求所有英国信贷和金融机构必须从周一下午开始停止与伊朗银行的贸易。 《石油狂人》指出,这是英国首次切断石油出口国’的银行业,实际上是任何国家’银行业以这种方式。伊朗是否将这一举动误入歧途,这令人高度怀疑。

©Gaurav Sharma2011。照片:英国首相戴维·卡梅伦(David Cameron)在11月21日的CBI会议上讲话ST,2011© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2011.

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