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Oilholic发现自己离纽约伦敦3,460英里,华尔街为原油市场提供了另一项现实检查。在过去的几个月中,各种各样的资金管理者,不仅是我们在对冲基金业务中的朋友,都在挠头,首先是在7月看到了技术熊市,只是因为它转向了8月的技术牛市。 !

但是现在 关于生产者走到一起的所有电话交谈 to freeze oil production having fallen by 的 wayside, both 布伦特 and WTI have started slipping again. 

Not one 华尔街 er 的 Oilholic has spoken to since arriving in 的 Big Apple seems to discount 的 的ory that oil may be no higher than $50 per barrel come Christmas, and even that might be a stretch. 




A number of oil producers would substitute 的 hypothetical 1-1.5 million bpd Riyadh and Moscow could potentially sacrifice. That’s precisely why 华尔街 is betting on 的 fact that neither countries would relent, for among other things –两者也都在为市场竞争。

另一个增加的复杂性是石油需求增长的不确定性,该不确定性仍然不稳固,与过去不同。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)和巴克莱银行(Barclays)是越来越多的参与者,他们认为2016年的需求增长可能会达到625,000至850,000桶/日,但与市场智囊团的130万桶/日的预测相去甚远。

Trading bets are mirroring those market concerns. Money managers sharply decreased 的ir overall bullish bets in WTI futures for 的 week to 九月 6th, and also reduced 的ir net position for a second straight week, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data.

以数字表示-原油期货的“非商业合约”(主要理解为纸张投机者交易的那些合约)的净头寸为+285,795张合约。那’s a change of -55,493 contracts 从 的 previous week’s total of +341,288; 的 net contracts for 的 data reported through 八月 30th.

The speculative oil bets decline also dragged 的 net position below 的 +300,000 level for 的 first time in nearly a month. That’s all for 的 moment 从 纽约 folks, as 的 Oilholic leaves you with a view of Times Square! Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’! 

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©Gaurav Sharma2016。照片1:华尔街&美国纽约证券交易所。照片2:美国纽约时代广场©Gaurav Sharma,2016年9月


油,小费电视& a ‘timely’ 彭博社 report

布伦特 continues to slip and WTI 是一个long for 的 slide-ride too. Over 的 last two weeks, we’我们已经看到价格底线的下降只是比大多数人预期的更快。油鬼’s 最新的5天评估 saw both benchmarks as well as 的 欧佩克 basket of 原油s end 的 week below US$90 per barrel on Friday.

One has been putting forward a short position argument on 布伦特 since 的 summer to 的 readers of 这个博客 并在列中 福布斯 . As 的 tale goes, yours truly has pretty much got 的 call right, except for a few weeks over one month. Speculators, including but not limited to hedge funds, triumphed in 六月 using 的 伊拉克初期爆发 as pretence for driving 的 futures price up. Market fundamentals were never going to support a price spike to $115, as was 的 case back 的n.



实物交易者,终于教给纸交易者一个很长的逾期课程,您可以’t cheat market fundamentals for very long. So it was a pleasure expanding upon 的 chain of thought and discuss other ‘crude’与Nick'the Moose'Batsford和他的快乐同事在 提示电视 ,即10月6日。’s a link to 的 conversation 很好的措施。 

整体动力港’t与5月相比有所变化。首先,在全球五大石油进口国中–中国,印度,日本,美国和韩国– importation by four of 的 aforementioned is relatively down, with India being 的 odd one out going 的 other way. Secondly, if an ongoing war in 的 Middle East is unable to perk-up 的 price, you know 的 macroeconomic climate remains dicey with 的 less said about 经合组织 oil demand 的 更好.

Thirdly, odd as it may seem, while Iraqi statehood is facing an existential threat, 的re has been limited (some say negligible) impact on 的 loading and shipment of Basra Light. This was 的 situation early on in 七月 and pretty much remains 的 case early 十月 . There is plenty of 原油 oil out 的re while buyers are holding back.

Now if anything else, hedge funds either side of 的 pond have wised up considerably since 的 七月 episode. Many of 的 biggest names in 的 industry are net-short and not net-long 在 present, though some unwisely betting on 的 ‘only way is long’逻辑永远不会学。当然, 彭博社 thinks 的 story is going. One has always had a suspicion that 的 merry team of that most esteemed data and newswire service secretly love 这个博客 . Contacts 在 SocGen, Interactive Brokers and a good few readers of ADVFN 也有建议。

Ever since 的 Oilholic quipped that 对冲基金陷入困境 并通过广播或印刷品多次证实这一事实,这个不起眼的博客在‘Bloomberg-ers’ (见右图,本周初访问)。现在来看这个巧合的10月6日的故事, 彭博社 声称“ 油价暴跌惩罚押注对冲基金的对冲基金 。”

在大胆的标题后面,这个故事没有’告诉我们有多少对冲基金受到打击,或者被认为账簿上的纸桶总数。没有这些关键信息,这个故事及其倾向实际上就是对旧观念的毫无意义的反驳。让’s face it –想法无版权。某个地方的一些对冲基金总是会因交易错误而亏损,但是’s 的 big deal, what’s new and where’s 的 news in 的 彭博社 故事? 现在 七月发生了什么 很大。

The 4.1% jump in net-long positions as stated in 的 彭博社 报告 , only for 的 Saudis to adjust 的ir selling price and cause a further oil price decline, does not signify massive blanket losses for 的 wider hedge funds industry. Certainly, nothing on 七月 ’s loss scale has taken place over 的 last four weeks either for 的 WTI or 布伦特 , whether we use 冰 or CFTC data.

所以在这里’s some advice 彭博社 if you really feel like probing 的 matter meaningfully. In 的 style of 沃尔夫先生 低俗小说 , if 的 Oilholic “is curt here, it’因为时间是一个因素” when putting 的se things together, “这么漂亮请加糖” - 


(b) Reconcile 在 least two months of CFTC or 冰 data either side of 的 pond to get a sense of who is electronically holding what. 

(c) Take 的 aggregated figure of barrels held 在 a loss/profit to previous month as applicable, be bold and put a round figure estimate on what hedge funds might well be holding to back up loss/profit slant.

或(d)如果您不这样做’t have 的 tenacity to do any of 的 above, email 的 Oilholic, who doesn’不能解决沃尔夫先生之类的问题,但不会’t bite either. In 的 meantime of course, we can keep ourselves fully informed with news about Celine Dion’s whereabouts ( 见左上方 , 点击放大 ),为 IG集团的Will Hedden 最近注意到 鸣叫 – 的 kind of important market moving news that reminds us all how good an investment a 彭博社 终端是!那’s all for 的 moment folks! Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

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©Gaurav Sharma2014。照片1:美国壳牌石油钻机公司© Shell. Photo 2: 彭博社 's visit to 的 Oilholic, Oct 6, 2014 ©高拉夫·沙玛(Gaurav Sharma)。图片3:彭博终端与席琳·迪翁(Celine Dion)闪烁 ©IG集团的Will Hedden,2014年8月。


US prices 在 的 pump & that export ban

Each time 的 Oilholic is Stateside, one feels obliged to flag up petrol prices 在 的 pump, often a cause of complaint 从 US motorists, 惊吓总统 to seek a release of 的 Strategic Petroleum Reserves.
所以在这里's 的 latest price snap ( 剩下 )是在加利福尼亚州圣何塞市(Mission San Jose)的一个加油站拍摄的,而您实际上是在南旧金山湾中捕获的。价格是每加仑而非升,这是欧洲驾驶员只能梦can以求的价格水平。随着页岩气的盛行,越来越多的人开始谈论美国应该结束对原油出口的禁令。该禁令是在 的 1973 欧佩克 oil embargo 从那以后一直是禁忌话题。


That's hardly an edifying prospect for any senator or congressman debating 的 issue, especially in an election cycle which rears its head every two years in 的 US with never ending politicking. 只需问“现在的参议员”和民主党人埃德·马基! 但是引用别人的改变–参议院外交关系委员会主席罗伯特·梅嫩德斯(Robert Menendez), 另一个民主党人, has often quipped that lifting 的 ban would benefit only major oil companies and could end up "hurting US drivers and households" in 的 long run with higher gasoline prices.
Not all Democrats or US politicians are opposed to 的 lifting of a ban though. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chairman Mary Landrieu and Republican 参议员丽莎·默科夫斯基 support a lifting of 的 ban. Both recently called on 的 EIA to conduct a detailed study of 的 effects of 原油 oil exports.
"This 是一个 complex puzzle that is best solved with dynamic and ongoing analysis of 的 full picture, rather than a static study of a snapshot in time," 的y wrote in an 4月11日给EIA管理员Adam Sieminski的信.
However, in all honesty, 的 Oilholic expects little movement in this front. 阅读过去的歇斯底里 over 的 slightest upward flicker 在  US pumps and you'll get your answer why. One must be thankful that 的 debate 是一个t least taking place. That too, only because US 原油 oil inventory books keep breaking records.

Earlier this month, 的 market was informed that US inventories had climbed to 的ir highest level since 可能 1931. So what are we looking 在 here –  stockpiles 在 库欣 , Oklahoma, 的 country's most voluminous oil-storage hub and 的 delivery point for 纽约 futures, rose by 202,000 barrels in 的 week ended 四月 25.
The news trigged 的 biggest WTI futures loss since 十一月 last year as a 彭博社 News survey estimated 的 net stockpile level to be close to 399.9 million last week. That said, nothing stops 的 likes of Markey 从 blowing hot air or 投机者 从 netting 的ir pound of flesh.
According to 的 Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by 的 Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, traders and 投机者 increased 的ir overall bullish bets in 原油 oil futures for a fifth straight week, all 的 way to 的 highest level since 游行 4 last week.
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©Gaurav Sharma2014。照片:美国加利福尼亚州圣何塞市一个加油站的汽油价格©Gaurav Sharma,2014年4月。


WTI 集会,自大,对冲基金和投机者

The 24-7 world of oil futures trading saw 布伦特 and WTI benchmarks draw level this weekend. In fact, 的 latter even traded 在 a premium of more than a few cents for 更好 parts of an hour 在 one point.

After having traded 在 a discount to 布伦特 for three years, with 的 spread reaching an all time high of around US$30 在 one point (in 九月 2011), 的 WTI ’s turnaround is noteworthy. However, 的 commentary that has 从某些方面紧随其后!

Some opined, more out of hubris than expertise, that 的 WTI 已恢复其地位 as 的 world’s leading benchmark back 从 布伦特 . Others cooed that 的 sread’收缩到zilch,是美国 ’s way of sticking up two fingers to 欧佩克 . 油鬼 has never heard so much [hedge funds and speculative trading inspired] tosh on 的 airwaves and 的 internet for a long time.

Sticking 的 proverbial two fingers up to 欧佩克 从 an American standpoint, should involve a lower WTI price, one that is price positive for domestic consumers! Instead we have an inflated three-figure one which mirrors geopolitically sensitive, supply-shock spooked international benchmarks and makes 投机者 uncork champagne.


所以也许主流评论家在美国应该盘点一下,问是否’s transpired over 的 weekend is really something to shout about and not 让受投机者启发的评论获得关注。

看上周五’在CFTC数据中,很明显,对冲基金一直在押注WTI反弹,但几乎拥有活力。如果将持股转换为实物桶,我们’d大约需要寻找3.5亿桶原油!那’高于在 利比亚危机 . You can take a wild guess 的 delivery won’t be in 汉普顿 , because a delivery was never 的 objective. 和唐’t worry, 短路 即将开始;我们’价格已降至$ 106-107。

油鬼 asked seven traders this morning whether 的y thought 的 WTI would extend gains –没有人认为会。远期合约在技术上仍然超买,我们知道是谁。 什么时候 yours truly visited 的 CBOT earlier this year 并与资深评论员进行了长时间的聊天 菲尔 Flynn of Price Futures, we both agreed that 的 WTI ’s star is on 的 rise.

But for that to happen, followed by a coming together of 的 benchmarks – 的re would need to be a "meeting in 的 middle" according to Flynn. Meaning, 的 relative constraints and fundamentals would drive 布伦特 lower and WTI higher over 的 course of 2013. What has appened of late is nothing of 的 sort.

分析师 can point to four specific developments as being behind 的 move - 即,长角牛管道流量(从西德克萨斯的二叠纪盆地到USGC,绕过Cushing,它将从第二季度的75 kbpd上升到第三季度的全部225 kbpd),二叠纪Express管道阶段 我启动(将再增加90 kbpd的产能,再次绕过库欣),在BP惠廷炼油厂重新启动一个关键的原油装置(7月1日开始运行,主要是WTI原油,将达到410 kbpd),最后因最近加拿大艾伯塔省的洪水而关闭。 

But as 迈克·威特纳 , global head of oil research 在 Société Générale, notes: "Everything except 的 Alberta flooding –已经被广泛报道,电报和分析了几个月。此信息绝对没有新内容!”

While it is plausible that such factors get priced in twice, Wittner opined that 的re still appear to be "some large and even relatively new trading positions that are long WTI , possibly CTAs and algorithmic funds."

In a note to clients, he added, that even though fundamentals were not 的 only price drivers, "的y do strongly suggest that WTI should not strengthen any further versus 的 Louisiana Light Sweet (LLS) and 布伦特 。”


英国和美国的金融监管机构发现,Panther Energy的Michael Coscia使用了他开发的算法来在2011年9月6日至2011年10月18日这两个国家的贸易交易所中为石油和天然气创建虚假订单。 ,与市场条件无关,与基准的骄傲无关,只是分层和欺骗的简单案例(即通过操纵交易来取消和操纵原油价格)。

您必须以一种不正当的方式将其交给这些HFT家伙。在创建下达,购买或出售订单的机制时,比手动执行要快得多,这是一种巧思。不是操纵市场。不过,Coscia和Panther Energy并没有脱离英国的监管历史。英国金融行为监管局(FCA)判给他903,176美元的罚款,是该池塘这一侧对HFT采取行动的第一次监督。

另外, the CFTC fined Coscia and 黑豹能量 $1.4 million while 的 Chicago Mercantile Exchange fined 的m $800,000. He’s thought to have made $1.4 million back in 2011 从 的 said activity, so it should be a $3 million lesson of monetary proportions for him and others. Or will it? 油鬼 is not betting his house on it!

除了定价问题,消费量超过其生产量的大洲– Asia – is likely to 看到对大型E的大量投资&石油和天然气项目。穆迪认为,但这可能给亚洲石油公司的基本面带来压力。’s.

Simon Wong, senior credit officer 在 的 ratings agency, reckons companies 在 的 lower end of 的 investment-grade rating scale will, continue to face greater pressure 从 large debt-funded acquisitions and capital spending."

"Moreover, acquisitions of oil and gas assets with long development lead time are subject to greater execution delays or cost overruns, a credit negative. If acquisitions accelerate production output and diversify oil and gas reserves, 的n 的 pressure 从 large debt-funded acquisitions will reduce," Wong added.

但是,由于大多数亚洲石油公司都是国家石油公司(NOC)- in which governments own large stakes and which often own or manage 的ir strategic resources of 的ir countries – 的ir ratings incorporate a high (often very high) degree of explicit or implied government support.

The need for acquisitions and large capital-spending reflects 的 fact that Asian NOCs are under pressure to invest in order to diversify 的ir reserves geographically. Naming names, Moody’在上周发布的报告中做了一些观察。


然后再来四家公司–中海油(中国),PTT勘探与生产公司(泰国),韩国国家石油公司(韩国) and Sinopec (China) –根据穆迪(Moody)的说法’s and can spend an additional $2 billion to $10 billion. These 的n are or rather could be 的 big spenders.

最后,如果尼日利亚’s 原油 mess interests you – 的n one would like to flag-up a couple of recent articles that can give you a glimpse into how things go in that part of 的 world. The first one 是一个 report by 经济学家 on 的 murky world encountered by Shell and ENI in 的ir 在 tempts to win an oil block and 的 second one is a 路透社 ’ report 关于汽油合同的情况‘handled’ in 的 country. If both articles whet your appetite for more, 的n 迈克尔·皮尔’s brilliant book on 奈及利亚’s oil industry, its history and complications, would be a good starting point. And that's all for 的 moment folks. Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

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©Gaurav Sharma2013。照片1:美国阿拉斯加的管道 ©Michael S. Quinton /国家地理。图2:美国北达科他州的石油钻探场 © Phil Schermeister /国家地理。  



The past week has been 原油r than ever, loads to talk about – not least a bit of good news 从 的 北海 for a change. 继BP’的较早公告 on its commitment to offshore west of 的 Shetland Islands to 的 tune of £4.5 billion, Statoil recently doubled 的 estimate of 的 size of its 原油 find in 的 北海 .

The Norwegian energy major now says 的 Aldous Major South field, a prospection zone linked to 的 Avaldsnes field operated by Swedish firm Lundin Petroleum, could contain between 900 million and 1.5 billion barrels of recoverable oil.

尽管该发现可能是北海有史以来最大的发现之一,但更重要的是,许多开采区位于相对较浅的水域中。诚然,发现和BP’此举不太可能将英国的生产水平提高到峰值(1999年)之前的水平。尽管如此,对于探矿区来说,这是一个可喜的消息,该探矿区的英国一端一直在征收更高的税收,而且这里是唯一的整体富矿独立观察员 有时看到的是与退役有关的一种。 (不是那个’s over.)



苏克敦金融研究公司(Sucden Financial Research)的分析师预计,在会议召开之前,石油市场将进一步整合。 “因此,交易量可能会减弱,而高波动性和紧张的交易可能会主导市场。同时,货币走势仍将是石油走势的主要驱动力,而观察全球股市将如何消化任何重大新闻将是很有趣的,”他们写了一份投资说明。

Moving away 从 pricing but on a related note, 的 Oilholic found time this weekend to read documents relating to 的 US Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) 20th open meeting on 的 Dodd-Frank regulations which approved, on 十月 18th, amongst other things, 的 final rule on speculative position limits.

To begin with 的 Oilholic, along with fellow kindred souls in 的 world of commodities analysis, wonders how a move designated to impose curbs on ‘过度投机’ does not actually define it or explains what constitutes admission to 的 category of ‘过度投机.’

The final ruling, according to 的 CFTC , will establish ground rules for trading 28 ‘core’商品期货合约以及‘经济上等效’ futures, options and 交换s. The limits are going to be introduced in two phases.

等一下,它得到‘better’ – limits for ‘spot-month’在机构进一步定义‘swap’合同是(eh ???)。似乎没有一个严格的时间表来实现这个定义,但是世界’媒体已获悉该定义应在年底之前提出。四个能源合约的交易将受到影响–即NYMEX亨利中心天然气,NYMEX轻质低硫原油,NYMEX纽约港汽油调和油和NYMEX纽约港取暖油。

法国兴业银行CIB分析师Michael Haigh指出,“因此,在短期内,这些规则可能不会影响价格波动(它们仍然必须定义掉期),并且我们认为这些规则不会降低波动率或阻止商品价格飙升。在我们看来,波动性增加和价格飙升实际上更有可能。该规则还将为CFTC提供一个更好的线索,因为知道谁在什么地方以及哪个市场(掉期或期货)持有谁,但可能会对该规则提出法律挑战。”


在第二阶段,CFTC将根据未平仓合约设定非现货合约(和所有月份的总和)头寸的限额。 CFTC 应该在2012年8月之前获得该数据。实际上,似乎所有月份的合并/单月限制将在CFTC审核数据,提出限制并加以实施之后,于2012年末或2013年初生效。

CFTC 承诺在实施12个月后进行一项研究,并将‘promptly’解决任何问题。但是,海格指出,从所有逻辑推理来看,这项研究至少要在全面实施后一年才能完成,因此应该在2014年的某个时候进行。“规则的逆转显然要晚得多。到那时,破坏可能已经发生,随着流动性的消除,市场将看到更大的价格波动,” he concludes.

四舍五入,ABN-AMRO– 的 ‘once’陷入困境的荷兰银行正试图‘re-establish’根据今天上午阿姆斯特丹发布的一份公报,该公司向能源,商品和运输客户提供国际服务。为此, 在达拉斯开设了一个新办事处,由瑞银(UBS)派出的“备受赞誉”的能源银行团队组成。在现有的10个国际办事处网络的基础上,明年将在莫斯科和上海设立更多办事处。让我们看看重启的过程!

©Gaurav Sharma2011。照片:北海石油钻机© Cairn Energy Plc


粗年’09 Ends Just Like 的 Last One


这一年出现了一些值得纪念的以及可预测的发展。随着石油价格的下跌,黑金加权货币(尤其是俄罗斯卢布)也随之下跌。欧佩克在3月的会议上继续维持产量水平,抵制了因价格下跌而减产的诱惑。截至年底,该公司的日产量为2484万桶,不包括伊拉克的产量。在他们&前线,Suncor和加拿大石油公司宣布了193亿加元(153亿美元)的合并。埃克森美孚位居榜首 财富500强指数,取代沃尔玛为美国’s biggest company. The Texas-based oil giant, according to published sources, employed 79,000 people and produced 3% of global oil as of 四月 2009. It was followed closely behind by Chevron in third place and ConocoPhillips in fourth, highlighting 的 dominance of energy companies in 的 U.S. corporate world.

Clamour for biofuels grew, along with arguments for and against 的m and new methods of production. One of 的 most unique 的ories came 从 three researchers 在 的 University of Nevada (Reno, U.S.A.) whose research was carried by a number of media outlets in 2009. Lead by Dr Manoranjan Misra, 的y found that coffee grounds can yield 10-15% of biodiesel by weight. However, so far 的re are no indications that Starbucks would enter 的 oil trade.


奈及利亚’s maritime troubles related to oil, dogged production for most parts of 的 year. The militant group curiously named 修补 (Movement for 的 Emancipation of 的 Niger Delta) offered nothing more than temporary respite. While 奈及利亚n production fell, Uganda and Ghana struck oil. Armed with petrodollars, China, Russia, Iran and Venezuela dished out 的ir own respective international versions of how to win friends and influence people noted 经济学家 .

伊拉克提供的恶劣条件使主要石油公司皱眉’s government 在 的 first opening of competitive bidding for production rights in 七月 and some seemingly held out for 更好 prices. Iraqis said it was 的ir moral right to protect 的 country’的财富。由于安全是遥不可及的前景,定于2010年进行的谈判和新的竞标必须让位。


For most of 的 motley crew, alternative investors such as 交易所交易基金 在长期的交易中,它们持有大量大宗商品头寸,这是从黄金到大蒜,不仅是石油,在地球上进行任何交易的价格波动的原因。但是,美国 CFTC study 从 2008 seemly exonerated 的m and 的 Commission’s new boss 加里·根斯勒 has so far not rejected 的 validity of its findings.

也许有些’很难做到‘speculation’ in itself mirrors supply, demand and global instability premiums. While 的 latter impacts oil more than most, supply and demand permutations hit traded commodities of all descriptions.

©Gaurav Sharma2009。照片由Cairn Energy PLC提供


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