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的 169th 欧佩克部长会议 has concluded in Vienna, Austria with 的 producers' collective yet again failing to reveal its 'official production quota'. 

But analysts took heart from 的 fact that 欧佩克 finally appointed a new Secretary General - Nigeria's Mohammed Sanusi Barkindo - to succeed 阿卜杜拉·塞勒姆·埃尔·巴德里.

的re might well be discord with respect to Iran's bid to ramp production up to 4 million barrels per day, but 的 appointment of a compromise candidate as Secretary General is definitely a step in 的 right direction for us lot in 的 analyst community.

欧佩克还指出,自2015年12月上次会议以来, 原油价格已上涨80%以上,供求关系 converging and oil and product stock levels in 的 OECD have recently 显示为相对适度。

另外, 加蓬 will be readmitted to 的 欧佩克 fold with effect from 1 七月, taking 欧佩克's membershp up to 14, having already readmitted net oil importer 印度尼西亚 last year.

最后, 的 next 欧佩克 meeting is on 30th 十一月. That’s all for 的 moment from Vienna folks! Keep reading, keep it 原油!

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© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2016. Photo: Press conference 在 的 conclusion of 欧佩克's 169th Ministerial Meeting in Vienna, Austria ©Gaurav Sharma,2016年6月2日。


科威特i strikers propping up 原油 prices

的 ongoing 科威特i oil strike has cut 的 country’石油连续第四个交易日产出,隔夜美国库存数据支持价格,伊拉克正在煽动另一家石油生产国的讲话’ meeting in 可能. 

End result is that 布伦特 是一个bove $45 per barrel but remains vulnerable to a correction. 非欧佩克的供应下降已经开始加剧,但风险溢价得以赢得’t kick in until excess oil falls below 1 million barrels per day (bpd). Even with ongoing refinery maintenance in certain corners of 的 world and 的 科威特i oil strike - which has seen its output plummet to 1.5 million bpd from 2.8 million bpd - 的re is still plenty of 的 原油 stuff on 的 market.

Whichever way both 布伦特 and WTI futures go, 的 $40-50 per barrel range is likely to be maintained, and a 跌至每桶35美元 remains a distinct possibility. 同时,n uptick in 原油 oil futures (and 铁矿) is driving 外汇交易 market trends too with beleaguered commodities linked currencies getting some respite.

Mexican peso, Aussie and Canadian dollars are all up versus 的 greenback. 杰特·杰克斯, head of 外汇交易 在 Societe Generale, said, "With BHP warning of a near-term correction (downwards) and with output of 铁矿 soaring, 的 rally should be treated with a bit of caution, but it's going to go on supporting 的 Australian dollar for now.


Reverting back to 的 oil glut story - it has some way to run yet, but for 的 moment Iran ought to thank 科威特i strikers for neutralising 的 多哈会谈 farce。那’所有人都在眼前!继续阅读,继续阅读原油!

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©Gaurav Sharma2016。照片:石油管道© Cairn Energy Plc


Get used to 原油 swings & volatility

Oil markets are likely to face further bouts of volatility. 什么时候 沙特阿拉伯 and Russia, together with Venezuela and Qatar, offered 的 所谓的生产冻结的错误希望 packaged in 的 shape of market support last week, 的 油腻的 wasn't 的 only one who did not buy it.

Predictably, oil futures rose by over 7% towards 的 middle of last week, but rapidly slipped into negative territory as Iran, while welcoming 的 move, did not say whether it would participate. In any case, 的 move itself was a farce of international proportions.


Unless a clear pattern of production declines appears on 的 horizon, market volatility will persist. That sort of clarity won’t至少在6月之前到达,价格可能会继续在25-40美元之间波动,是的 仍然有可能降到20美元.

欧佩克 will need to announce a real terms production cut of 1.5 million barrels per day to make any meaningful short-term difference to 的 oil price by $7-10 per barrel, and even that may not be sustainable with non-OPEC producers likely to be 的 primary beneficiaries 这样的举动。

Expect more of 的 same, and more downgrades of oil and gas companies by ratings agencies of 的 sort 的 market has gotten used to in recent months。在惠誉国际评级上周将壳牌评级下调之后,穆迪’s moved to place another 29 of its rated US exploration and production firms on review for downgrade over 的 weekend.

同时,后者还表示,持续的低油价可能对整个海湾合作委员会(GCC)的银行产生越来越多的负面影响。这既可以直接发生-通过削弱政府的能力和支持国内银行的意愿-也可以通过削弱银行的运营条件来间接发生,穆迪’s added.

Khalid Howladar, senior credit officer 在 穆迪's, said, "Despite low oil prices and a high dependency on oil revenues across 的 GCC countries, banks' ratings in 的 region continue to benefit from 的ir governments' willingness to tap accumulated wealth to support counter-cyclical spending."

But continued 石油价格下跌s signal "increasing challenges" to 的 sustainability of this dynamic, he added.

最后, some news from 的 北海 to end with – Genscape has flagged up 的 shutdown and restart of BP’s 1.15mn bpd Forties Pipeline System in a note to clients. It caused 的 四月 ICE 布伦特 futures contract price to 穗 before falling slightly on 二月 12, but 没有 to be overtly concerned about.

的 system was shut due to an issue 在 的 Kinneil fractionaction terminal, located where 的 flow from 的 北海 on 的 Forties pipeline system is stabilised for consumption. Elsewhere, 北海 E&P firm 第一油 is 报告edly filing for involuntary administration, according to 的 英国广播公司.

Enquest and Cairn Energy will takeover its 15% stake in 海妖领域, east of 香港仔 in 的 British sector of 的 北海. That’所有人都在眼前!继续阅读,继续阅读‘crude’!

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© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2016. Photo: Oil rig in 的 北海 © BP



Successive bouts of over 10% week-on-week/five-day price declines have hit 的 oil market for six and made for a wretched start to 2016. 

上周五, 布伦特 ended 12.33% lower to 的 Friday [Jan 8] before, WTI fell 10.37% and 欧佩克’s Basket of 原油 oils was 10.23% lower. (see graph, click 放大)

Closing 布伦特 price of that Friday itself was some 10.54% lower, WTI was down 10.48% lower and 欧佩克 Basket Price down 10.94% versus 的 closing price of 十二月 31. Suddenly, $20 per barrel oil doesn’听起来不那么令人难以置信!


As for 欧佩克, even if 的 decline continues, 的 油腻的 feels 的re is little it can do other than to let 的 market take its own course. An 欧佩克 cut would only keep rivals in 的 current game of survival called 'lower for longer'. That’所有人都在眼前!继续阅读,继续阅读‘crude’!

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©Gaurav Sharma2016。图:石油基准价格(周五收盘)©Gaurav Sharma / 油腻的s同义报告,2016年。


布伦特- WTI parity (again) before 的 year-end!

Before 的 year is out, we’ve got parity yet again between both benchmarks. Right 在 的 start of 的 year, 的 西德克萨斯中质油(WTI)短暂交易价高于布伦特(Brent) 达到了每桶48.05美元的均价 一月15

Come 的 end of 的 year and we are here again! Parity between both benchmarks was achieved once more 在 a lower level of $36.40 per barrel on 十二月 22 (see above, click 放大), exactly $11.65 lower with WTI in 的 ascendancy. In fact, 美国 marker's premium appears to holding.

欧佩克僵局, peak winter demand and lifting of US exports ban are and will remain price positives for 的 WTI, 正如一个人写的 福布斯. So is this a reversal of 的 “粗暴”的啄食顺序 of futures contracts we have gotten used to since 2010? 油鬼 feels its early days yet. However, 的 development sure makes for an interesting 12 months in more ways than one.


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©Gaurav Sharma2015。照片:Bloomberg终端屏幕抓图,显示2015年12月22日布伦特-WTI平价的时刻  © Bloomberg.


US oil exports could level 原油 playing field

It has taken 40 years but US politicians finally found 的 timing, inclination and effort required to get rid of a legislative relic dating back to 的 Arab oil embargo of 1975 – a ban on exporting 的 country's 原油 oil that has plagued 的 industry for so long for reasons that no longer seem relevant.

Late on Friday, when news of 的 lifting of 的 ban arrived, 的 油腻的 could scarcely believe it. As recently as 七月 2014, 这个博客 opined in a 福布斯 that movement on this front was highly unlikely until after 美国 Presidential election. However, in this instance, one is both pleasantly surprised as well as glad to have been proved wrong.

US producers, including independent upstarts behind 的 country’s shale bonanza, would now be able to sell 的ir domestically produced barrels out in 的 international market competing with those already having to contend with a global supply glut.


Of course, in keeping with 的 shenanigans long associated with political circles in Washington DC, lifting of 的 ban came as part of a $1.1 trillion spending bill approved by 的 Senate that will fund 的 government until 2016.

的 spending bill also includes tax breaks for US solar and wind power, and a pledge by both errant Republicans and Democrats not to derail a $500 million grant to 的 联合国绿色气候基金.

No matter what 的 political trade-offs were like, 的y are certainly worth it if 的 reward is 的 end of an unnecessary and redundant ban. That’所有人都在眼前!继续阅读,继续阅读‘crude’!

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©Gaurav Sharma2015。照片:美国布鲁克斯山脉阿拉斯加管道©迈克尔·S·昆顿/国家地理


布伦特 & WTI fall by over 3% on 欧佩克 call

石油狂仍然在收集关于 most unusual conclusion to 的 欧佩克 meeting here in Vienna, with 的 formal communiqué issued by 的 member nations making no mention of 的 official production quota but noting that its members had opted to keep production where it was. 

So 的 only thing that's clear - minus an actual figure - is that 欧佩克 will keep on pumping and maintaining its line of holding on to its market share. Having since waited for 美国 close, and done 的 relevant calculations, both 布伦特 and WTI shed over 3% 以一周为期五天的价格为基础,预计两个期货合约的卖空者都是如此。 

Using 2130 GMT on Friday as cut-off point, 布伦特 was down $1.70 or 3.79% to $43.17 per barrel compared to 的 charting point last week, while WTI was $1.35 or 3.23% lower 在 $40.12 per barrel (见左上方图表,点击放大)。为短期空头做准备!

最后, here is how far 的 欧佩克 oil price basket has plummeted since 六月 2014 (见下图,点击放大)不久之后,维也纳会有更多;但是这里有一些 初步反应’s latest 福布斯报告。继续阅读,继续阅读‘crude’! 

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©Gaurav Sharma2015。图1:2015年1月至今的石油基准价格。图2:2014年6月的OPEC油价篮子– 十一月 2014 ©Gaurav Sharma / 油腻的s同义报告,2015年11月。


俄罗斯,每桶40美元& some ‘crude’ ratings

在上周五连续两次连续一周下降6%或以上’s的关闭带来了一些喘息的机会 布伦特 oil futures, although 的 WTI front month contract continued to extend losses. In fact, 美国 benchmark has been ending each Friday since 六月 12 在 a lower level compared to 的 week before (请参见图表,单击以放大)。
是否会发生40美元的违约情况?是。油会留在那里吗?不,那’因为市场基本面已经避险’t发生了重大变化。供过于求和低迷的需求水平大致与6月份的水平相同。市场上每天仍有大约1.1至130万桶(桶/天)的额外石油;范围 ’举行了2015年的大部分时间。伊朗等影响’一段时间以来,人们已经知道全球原油供应量可能增加,而中国的原油购买量却很少。

最新的市场动荡是由情绪驱动的,’s why 的 油腻的 noted in a recent 福布斯 2016-17年期货似乎被低估的专栏. People seem to be making calls on where we might be tomorrow based on 的 kerfuffle we are seeing today!

来自中国的每组可怕数据,能源信息署(EIA)的库存报告,或某个国家或其他国家的轻推,都在欢迎伊朗重返市场(就像瑞士上周所做的那样),在基准点上都有反应性拖船。 油腻的仍然认为,到今年年底,布伦特原油价格将逐渐攀升至60美元以上,今年余下的时间里,石油供应将出现调整。

Away from pricing, 的re is one piece of very interesting backdated data. According to 的 环评, Russia’s oil and gas sector weathered both 的 sanctions as well as 的 原油 price decline rather well.

For 2014, Russia was 的 world's largest producer of 原油 oil, including lease condensate, and 的 second-largest producer of dry natural gas after 美国. Russia exported more than 4.7 million bpd of 原油 oil and lease condensate in 2014, 的 环评 concluded based on customs data. Most of 的 exports, or 98% if you prefer percentages, went to Asian and European importers.

哪里 俄罗斯生产水平 would be 在 的 end of 2015 remains 的 biggest market riddle. Anecdotal and empirical evidence points to conducive internal taxation keeping 的 industry going. However, as takings from oil and gas production and exports, account for 俄罗斯联邦预算收入的一半以上 – it is costing 的 Kremlin.

最后, two ratings notes from Fitch over 的 past fortnight are worth mentioning. 代理商 has revised its outlook on BP's long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘Positive’ from ‘Negative’ and affirmed 的 IDR 在 'A'.

展望修订如下 BP的公告 它已原则上达成解决联邦,州和地方政府的协议 Deepwater Horizo​​n索赔187亿美元,应在18年内支付。“We believe 的 deal has significantly reduced 的 uncertainty around BP's overall payments arising from 的 accident and hence has considerably strengthened 的 company's credit profile,” Fitch said.

代理商 added 的re was a real possibility for an upgrade to 'A+' in 的 next 12至18个月, depending on how things pan out and BP's upstream business profile does not show any significant signs of weakening, such as falling reserves or production.

Elsewhere, and unsurprisingly, Fitch downgraded 的 陷入困境的阿夫伦 to ‘D’ following 的 management's announcement on 七月 31 that it had taken steps to put 的 company into administration. 的 company's senior secured rating has been affirmed 在 'C', and 的 Recovery Rating (RR) revised to 'RR5' from 'RR6'.


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©Gaurav Sharma2015。图表:石油基准2015年1月2日至8月14日收盘©Gaurav Sharma,2015年8月。



It’s definitely a moment worth recording and 的 油腻的 was rather glad he was awake earlier today when it happened. For 在 one point in Asian trading, both 布伦特 and WTI were in perfect sync 在 US$48.05 per barrel as 的 oil markets rout continues (参见下面的屏幕抓取,点击放大). What's more, for a precious few minutes, 的 WTI actually traded 在 a premium of a few cents to 布伦特 marking only 的 third such occurrence since 2010.

当然是布伦特’s premium has been since been restored back to well over a dollar and rising. However, it 是一个 far cry from 2012 when 的 溢价平均约为每桶20美元 above 的 WTI, and did touch $25 在 one point if 这个博客’的记忆对他有益。

这两个全球基准的接近合并不应该’t come as a surprise as it was on 的 horizon. What transpired today was merely for 的 sake of a record which might not be all that unique over 的 coming weeks and months of volatility. That said, once 的 projected 供应校正 kicks in around midway point of this year, 的 油腻的 does see 布伦特’s single digit premium to 的 WTI climb up to around $5.

截至目前 一个人的2015年油价预测 is for a 布伦特 price in 的 range of $75 to $85 and WTI price range of $65 to $75. Weight on 布伦特 should be to 的 upside, while weight on WTI should be to 的 downside of 的 aforementioned range.

同时, 男爵’s article 在暗示 油价可能会跌至20美元, 而行业资深人士 T.布恩·皮肯斯 说他’s seen several slumps in his lifetime and reckons a return to a $100 level within 的 next “12 to 18 months” is inevitable.

另外, 的 油腻的 has called an end to 的 so-called “商品超级周期”在他最新的讽刺中 福布斯。在相关说明中, 高盛 截止到2015年的六个月和十二个月 estimates for 布伦特 to $43 and $70, from $85 and $90, and to $39 and $65, from $75 and $80, for 的 WTI.

最终,随着有关委内瑞拉违约的讨论获得市场关注,穆迪’s已下调PDVSA及其在美国的全资炼油子公司Citgo Petroleum的评级。 PDVSA’该机构的长期发行人评级和高级无抵押票据已从Caa1降级为Caa3。穆迪’将评级前景从负面转为稳定。 

Citgo Petroleum的企业家庭评级从B1降为B3;从B1-PD到B3-PD的违约评级概率;以及其从B1向B3提供的定期贷款,票据和工业收入债券的高级担保评级。

另外, 的 rating on Citgo's senior secured revolving credit facility was downgraded to B2 from B1, reflecting a lower expected loss in case of default vis-à-vis other classes of debt in 的 company's capital structure. 的 rating outlook was also changed to stable from negative.


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©Gaurav Sharma2015。照片:Brent和WTI期货于2015年1月15日达到平价,彭博大秀© Bloomberg



Both 原油 石油基准 are more or less staying within 的ir ranges 最近几周见过。布伦特原油价格为每桶80-85美元,WTI原油价格为每桶76-80美元。‘Short’ is still 的 call. 

While Russia is coping with 的 current 石油价格下跌, 的 country’s treasury is clearly not enjoying it. However, given 的 wider scenario in wake of Western sanctions, 的 Russian 卢布’s decline actually provides momentary respite on 的 ‘crude’ front and its 随后的自由浮动 一些急需的积极性。

货币’随着制裁的开始,今年美元兑美元的下跌激怒了。虽然这增加了进口费用,但俄罗斯的石油生产商(和出口商)实际上从中受益。石油出口国有一个非常重要的国内因素’ favour –当油价下跌时,他们支付的有效税率与价格本身一致,反之亦然。卢布贬值虽然损害了依赖进口的经济其他部分,但部分帮助抵消了生产者疲软的石油价格。

According to calculations by 惠誉评级, if 的 卢布 stabilises near about its current level and 的 oil prices hold steady around $85 per barrel next year, an average Russian producer should 报告 2015 卢布 operating profits broadly in line with 2013, when oil prices averaged $109. 

“在这种情况下,俄罗斯石油公司的财务杠杆可能会上升,特别是对于那些最依赖国际金融的生产商而言,因为它们的硬通货债务将增加价值。鉴于LUKOIL,GazpromNeft和Tatneft等受惠誉评级的石油公司对当前评级的杠杆都相对较低,因此这不会触发评级行动,”评级机构副总监德米特里·马林坚科(Dmitry Marinchenko)说。


“However, 的y may need to reconsider 的ir financing model should access to international debt markets remain blocked for a long time, because of sanctions and overall uncertainty over 的 乌克兰危机. Nevertheless, 的ir fundamentals remain strong, and we expect 的m to maintain flat oil production and generate stable cash flows for 在 least 的 next three to four years, even with lower oil prices,” Marinchenko adds.

有一个警告。所有这方面的市场评论,包括惠誉’的上述计算是基于克里姆林宫获胜的假设’更改现有税收框架,以增加石油收入。轶事证据,油鬼没有’t point to anything of 的 sort. In fact, most Russian analysts 这个博客 knows expect broader taxation parameters to remain 的 same.

If deliberations over 的 summer 在 的 在莫斯科举行的第21届世界石油大会 无论如何,该国实际上正试图使其税收制度更具竞争力。从那以后,发生了很多事情,不仅在石油价格下降方面,而且在制裁力度加大方面。自今年第一季度以来,也许卢布和石油价格都以几乎巧合的对称性下跌了30%,尽管自由浮动的尝试帮助了卢布。

油鬼 feels 的 Kremlin is inclined to leave more cash with oil companies in a bid to prop up production. With none of 的 major producers blinking (as one noted in a recent 福布斯), 的 Russians didn’要么在9月每天抽取超过1000万桶。那’s 的ir highest production level since 的 collapse of 的 Soviet Union.


Meanwhile, 的 Russians aren’t 的 only ones grappling with geopolitics and domestic political impediments. We’re in 的 season of silly politics in wider Europe as well. 的 European Union’俄罗斯在为俄罗斯天然气断奶方面所做的努力,仍然比在这方面的任何实际成就更重要。作为一个较早的博客, a real-terms cut in Russian imports to 的 EU over 的 next decade is not going to be easy.

Furthermore, energy policy in several jurisdictions 是一个ll over 的 place from nuclear energy bans to 页岩勘探 moratoriums, or in 的 UK’如果一个愚蠢的提议 能源价格冻结 by 的 leader of 的 opposition Labour party 埃德·米利班德 to counter his unpopularity. All of this 在 a time when Europe will need to invest US$2.2 trillion in electricity infrastructure alone by 2035, according to 科莱特·莱温纳, an industry veteran and energy sector advisor to 的 Chairman of Capgemini.

“没有国有化,国家将首当其冲的天然气市场动荡,价格冻结将行不通。为了减轻冻结的影响,公司可以削减英国负担不起的基础设施投资,或者’将通过其他方式增加收入,包括在冻结之前提价高于平均水平,” she told 这个博客 in a 福布斯 面试.

No wonder UK Prime Minister 戴维·卡梅伦 is concerned as Miliband's proposal has 的 potential to derail much needed investment. In a speech to 的 2014 CBI年会 (看到正确的) that was heavy on infrastructure investment and 的 country’s ongoing tussle with EU rules, Cameron did take time out to remind 的 audience about keeping 的 climate conducive for inward investment, especially foreign direct investment, in 的 UK’s energy sector.

“为了继续鼓励对内投资,您需要一致性和可预测性。这在能源方面尤其重要,” he 对似乎同意的听众说。


油鬼 feels 的 PM’s pain, but is resigned to acceptance of 的 country’愚蠢的选举季节,但政策思路却比较愚蠢。那’所有人都在眼前!继续阅读,继续阅读‘crude’!

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© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2014. Photo 1: Red Square, Moscow, Russia. Photo 2: UK Prime Minister 戴维·卡梅伦 addresses 的 2014 CBI Annual Conference, 十一月 2014 © 高拉夫·夏尔马.



Recent correction in 的 price of 原油 oil should come as no surprise. 的 布伦特 front month futures contract fell to a 上周26个月最低 lurking around 美国$98 per barrel level.

石油狂人曾这样说过,他’ll say it again – 的re is plenty of 的 原油 stuff around 缓解地缘政治高峰。当这种情况发生时,并且在过去几年中非常罕见,泡沫消散了。在布伦特原油价格跌破三位数之后,许多评论家纷纷将其归因于以下原因:归因于经济合作与发展组织的需求下降(没有新变化),中国经济活动不振(一段时间以来),供应过剩(也没有新出现),炼油厂维护(每年的那个时候),苏格兰公投(是什么?)– take your pick.

然而 没有’在风险方面发生了变化,因为地缘政治灾难– Libya, Sudan, 伊拉克 和埃博拉病毒袭击西非勘探– are all still in 的 background. What has actually gotten rid of 的 froth 是一个 realisation by those trading paper or virtual contracts that 的 only way is not long!

It’s prudent to mention that 的 油腻的 doesn’t always advocate going short. But one has consistently being doing so since late 可能 predicated on 的 belief of industry contacts, who use solver models to a tee, to actually buy physical 原油 oil, rather than 在屏幕上下注. Most of 的ir comparisons factor in 在 least three sellers, if not more.

Nothing 的y've indicated in 的 last (nearly) five months has suggested that buyers are tense about procuring 原油 oil within what most physical traders consider to be a "fair 值" spot trade, reflecting market conditions. For what it’s worth, with 美国 buying less, 原油 oil exporters have had to rework 的ir selling strategies and find other clients in Asia, as one explained in a 福布斯 本月初发布.

它仍然是买家 ’ market where you have two major importers, 美国 and China who are buying less, albeit for 不同的原因。简而言之,原油短缺,’瞬息万变的现象反映了实物市场的现实,纸交易员在今年第二季度的大部分时间里推迟了实盘交易。此外,由于供过于求已超过布伦特’为了提高风险溢价,WTI因美国国内炼油厂较高运转的动态以及俄克拉荷马州库欣供应过剩的减少而获得支持。最终结果意味着布伦特原油溢价比WTI低。 

然而,务实,布伦特’s current slump won’t be sustained until 的 end of 的 year. For starters, 欧佩克 is coming to 的 realisation that it may have to cut production. Secretary General 阿达拉·塞勒姆·巴德里 最近暗示了这一点。

而欧佩克的重量级 沙特阿拉伯在$ 85的最低价位上还是比较舒服的,伊朗和委内瑞拉的鹰派’t. Secondly, economic activity is likely to pick up both within and outside 的 OECD in fits and starts. While Chinese economic data continues to give mixed signals, 印度 is seeing a mini-bounce. 

另外, as analysts 在 德意志银行 noted, “With refineries likely to run hard after 的 maintenance period, this will support 原油 oil demand and eventually prompt 原油 prices, in our view. This may be one of 的 factors that could help to 消除contango in 的 布伦特 原油 oil term structure.”

While 的 general mood in 的 wider commodities market remains bearish, it should improve over 的 remainder of 的 year unless China, 印度 and 美国 collectively post dire economic activity, something that’在这一点上很难看到。 油腻的坚持他的第一季度预测 of a 布伦特 price in 的 range of $90 to $105 for 2014, and for its premium to WTI coming down to $5.

Meanwhile, 穆迪's has lowered 的 布伦特 原油 price assumptions it uses for ratings purposes to $90 per barrel through 2015, a $5 drop from 的 ratings agency's previous assumptions for 2015. It also reduced price assumptions for WTI 原油 to $85 per barrel from $90 through 2015.

代理商’s price assumptions for 2016 and 的reafter are $90 per barrel for 布伦特 原油 and $85 for WTI 原油, unchanged from previous assumptions. 穆迪’s continue to view 布伦特 as a common proxy for oil prices on 的 world market, and WTI for North American 原油.

最后,这里’s 的 油腻的’s second take for 福布斯 on 的 中国作为炼油大国的作用. Recent events have meant that 的ir refining party is taking a breather, but it’绝不结束。那’所有人都在眼前!继续阅读,继续阅读‘crude’!

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©Gaurav Sharma2014。照片:俄罗斯采油设施©卢克石油公司。图:布伦特曲线结构,2014年9月19日© 德意志银行


那年是& ‘crude’2014年的预测

As 原油 year 2013 came to a close, 的 油腻的 found himself in 鹿特丹 gazing 在 的 Cascade sculpture made by Van Lieshout工作室,一家跨学科的当代艺术和设计公司。

这座高八米的雕塑位于一个曾经是世界上最繁忙的港口(在2004年上海取代上海之前)的城市中,由18个堆叠的油桶组成,看上去像是从天而降。它们结合在一起形成了纪念柱,真人大小的鼓从该柱上滴下粘性物质,以获取人物的形状[see left, click 放大]。

Perhaps 的se figures and barrels symbolise us and our sticky relationship with 的 原油 oil markets. For all 的 huffing and puffing, bears and bulls, predictions and forecasts, dips influenced by macroeconomics and 穗s triggered by geopolitics – 的 year-end 布伦特 原油 oil price level came in near where it was 在 的 end of 2012; in fact it was 0.3% lower! On 的 other hand, 的 WTI reversed its 7 percent annualised reversal recorded 在 的 end of 2012, to finish round about 8 percent higher in year-over-year terms on 的 last day of trading in 2013.

关于去年价格水平的好坏预测中是否有确切的科学依据–不!在目前的宏观经济背景下,Oholholic是否认为两个基准价格都与供应方动态相反?–对!纸桶是否塞满了末期等待的实际商人  pipelines to collect 的ir 原油 cargo – you bet!

观看 彭博电视台 1月2日,有消息传出,在截至12月24日的一周内,资金经理将WTI的净多头头寸提高了4.4%。这家广播公司表示,这是自7月以来的连续第四次增长,而且是最长的连胜纪录。根据ICE Futures Europe,资金管理者在池塘的另一侧跟随他们的朋友,将布伦特原油的净看涨押注提高至十周以来的最高水平。

根据ICE的每周交易者承诺报告,在截至12月31日的一周中,价格将上涨的投机性押注(包括期货和期权在内)比空头多136,611手。增加了7,670张合约(即6%),使净多头头寸达到10月22日以来的最高水平。对于某些人来说,唯一的办法似乎是上升,因为实际交易和赌博之间的细线早已不复存在。 。

油鬼预言 a 布伦特 price in 的 range of US$105 to $115 in 去年一月. As 布伦特 came in flat 在 year-end, yours truly was on 的 money. 的 heart said 的n, as it does now, even that range –尽管被证明是正确的–实际上,在这个令人生厌的纸桶驱动的市场中,它公开地看涨,但可行。

For 2014, hoping that some of 的 supply-side positivity would be factored in to 的 mindset of traders, 的 油腻的's prediction is for a 布伦特 price in 的 range of $90 to $105 and WTI price range of $85 to $105. 布伦特's premium to 的 WTI should in all likelihood come down and average around $5 barrel.

油腻的的观点与一些乐观的城市预测是同步的,但也与之相反。那是为了他们维持– 这个博客 is quietly confident that more 伊拉克i and Iranian 原油 will come on 的 market 在 some point over 2014. 的 US isn't importing as much and 增量桶s will henceforth come on to 的 markets. 的se will hopefully trigger a much needed price correction.

Of all 的 price prediction notes in 这个博客's Inbox over 的 first week of 2014, one put out by 史蒂文·伍德 and 特里·马歇尔 of 穆迪's appears to be 的 most pragmatic. 的ir price assumptions, used for "ratings purposes only rather than as predictions", are for 布伦特 to average $95 2014年为每桶90美元,2015年为每桶90美元,而2014年WTI为每桶90美元,2015年为每桶85美元。正如两位分析师指出的那样:“供过于求将冷却2014年的油价。”

"A drop in Chinese growth and a surge in 欧佩克 production pose 的 biggest risks to oil prices as we head into 的 New Year. Prices could fall if Chinese GDP growth slows significantly and 欧佩克 members go above targeted production of 每天3000万桶(桶/日)," 的y added.

Away from 原油 price predictions on a standalone basis and reflecting on 的 year that was, 的 美国环境影响评估说 能源商品的价格去年仅温和下降或上涨,而小麦和铜等非能源商品的价格总体上则大幅下跌。

天然气,西部煤炭,电力和WTI原油价格上涨,而布伦特,石油产品和东部煤炭价格则小幅下跌。 “总体而言,2013年夏季之后,能源和非能源商品的价格趋势之间的差异有所扩大。这与2012年形成鲜明对比,2012年金属价格稳定或略有上涨,而严重的干旱驱使某些农产品价格上涨在下半年,”它补充说。

From 的 环评 to 欧佩克 where both its meetings in lovely Vienna last year, duly 在tended by 的 油腻的, turned out to be predictable affairs with 的 "official" quota still 在 3000万桶。而且我们还没有一个很长的逾期继承人 秘书长阿卜杜拉·塞勒姆·巴德里。 油腻的还设法抓住了片刻 沙特石油部长阿里·纳米(Ali Al-Naimi) 在 a media scrum in 可能. Away from 的 meetings, 的 year actually began in terrible fashion for 欧佩克 following a 对阿尔及利亚设施的恐怖袭击, but easing of tensions with Iran towards 的 end of 的 year, was a positive development.

It was also 的 year in which 的 Brits not only got excited about 的ir own 页岩勘探前景, but also inked 的ir first contract to import proceeds of 美国 shale bonanza via 萨宾通道. 分析师 liked it, Brits cheered it, but US politicians and energy intensive industries stateside didn't. 的 梯形XL pipeline project, stuck in 的 quagmire of US politics, 也拖了.

那是你的 about 的 基于短期主义的市场预测的平庸性 more than once was not unexpected; a blog on 的 bankrolling of 撒切尔主义 by 的 oil and gas sector after 的 铁娘子五月去世 当然是。

Apart from routine visits to 欧佩克, ever 的 勇敢的旅行者, 这个博客 blogged from lands far away and some not so far away. 的 year began with a memorable visit to 的 芝加哥贸易委员会 在 的 kind invitation of 菲尔 Flynn of Price Futures; a friend and analyst who never sits on 的 fence in any debate and is most likely to be vindicated as 的 布伦特-WTI spread 在2014年缩小。

接下来是跨湖前往多伦多以评估意见 梯形XL. Jaunts to 的 G8 2013峰会在北爱尔兰, 原油 ol' 挪威, 阿布扎比 以及第一次访问马斯喀特和 哈萨卜 简介 阿曼的石油和天然气部门 followed 的reafter.

Before calling time on 2013 in 鹿特丹, 的 油腻的 headed out to 的 Oil Capitals of Europe and North America – chasing 的 uptick in oilfield services sector activity in 香港仔, and Platts' response to 的 休斯顿狂暴 in 的 shape of its new Light Houston Sweet (LHS)基准。远离旅行, yours truly also 已审查 另外七本书供您考虑。

For all intents and purposes, it's been a 原油 old year! And it wouldn't have been half as spiffing without 的 support and feedback of you all - 的 dear readers of this humble blog. For those of you, who wanted 这个博客 on Twitter; you are welcome to follow @The_Oilholic

的re goes 的 look back 在 Crude Year 2013. As 的 含油同义词报告 出发 upon its fifth year on 的 Worldwide Web and 的 seventh year of its virtual existence – here's to 2014! That'所有人都在眼前!继续阅读,继续阅读'crude'!

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©Gaurav Sharma2014。照片:级联雕塑,荷兰鹿特丹Atelier Van Lieshout公司©Gaurav Sharma,2014年1月1日。



的 24-7 world of oil futures trading saw 布伦特 and WTI benchmarks draw level this weekend. In fact, 的 latter even traded 在 a premium of more than a few cents for better parts of an hour 在 one point.

After having traded 在 a discount to 布伦特 for three years, with 的 spread reaching an all time high of around US$30 在 one point (in 九月 2011), 的 WTI’s turnaround is noteworthy. However, 的 commentary that has 从某些方面紧随其后!

Some opined, more out of hubris than expertise, that 的 WTI已恢复其地位 as 的 world’s leading benchmark back from 布伦特. Others cooed that 的 sread’收缩到zilch,是美国’s way of sticking up two fingers to 欧佩克. 油鬼 has never heard so much [hedge funds and speculative trading inspired] tosh on 的 airwaves and 的 internet for a long time.

Sticking 的 proverbial two fingers up to 欧佩克 from an American standpoint, should involve a lower WTI price, one that is price positive for domestic consumers! Instead we have an inflated three-figure one which mirrors geopolitically sensitive, supply-shock spooked international benchmarks and makes 投机者 uncork champagne.


所以也许主流评论家在美国应该盘点一下,问是否’s transpired over 的 weekend is really something to shout about and not 让受投机者启发的评论获得关注。

看上周五’在CFTC数据中,很明显,对冲基金一直在押注WTI反弹,但几乎拥有活力。如果将持股转换为实物桶,我们’d be looking roughly around 350 million barrels of 原油 oil! That’高于在 利比亚危机. You can take a wild guess 的 delivery won’t be in 汉普顿, because a delivery was never 的 objective. 和唐’t worry, 短路 即将开始;我们’价格已降至$ 106-107。

油鬼 asked seven traders this morning whether 的y thought 的 WTI would extend gains –没有人认为会。远期合约在技术上仍然超买,我们知道是谁。 什么时候 yours truly visited 的 CBOT earlier this year 并与资深评论员进行了长时间的聊天 菲尔 Flynn of Price Futures, we both agreed that 的 WTI’s star is on 的 rise.

But for that to happen, followed by a coming together of 的 benchmarks – 的re would need to be a "meeting in 的 middle" according to Flynn. Meaning, 的 relative constraints and fundamentals would drive 布伦特 lower and WTI higher over 的 course of 2013. What has appened of late is 没有 of 的 sort.

分析师 can point to four specific developments as being behind 的 move - 即,长角牛管道流量(从西德克萨斯的二叠纪盆地到USGC,绕过Cushing,它将从第二季度的75 kbpd上升到第三季度的全部225 kbpd),二叠纪Express管道阶段  我启动(将再增加90 kbpd的产能,再次绕过库欣),在BP惠廷炼油厂重新启动一个关键的原油装置(7月1日开始运行,主要是WTI原油,将达到410 kbpd),最后因最近加拿大艾伯塔省的洪水而关闭。 

But as 迈克·威特纳, global head of oil research 在 法国兴业银行, notes: "Everything except 的 Alberta flooding –已经被广泛报道,电报和分析了几个月。此信息绝对没有新内容!”

While it is plausible that such factors get priced in twice, Wittner opined that 的re still appear to be "some large and even relatively new trading positions that are long WTI, possibly CTAs and algorithmic funds."

In a note to clients, he added, that even though fundamentals were not 的 only price drivers, "的y do strongly suggest that WTI should not strengthen any further versus 的 Louisiana Light Sweet (LLS) and 布伦特."


英国和美国的金融监管机构发现,Panther Energy的Michael Coscia使用了他开发的算法来在2011年9月6日至2011年10月18日这两个国家的贸易交易所中为石油和天然气创建虚假订单。 ,与市场条件无关,与基准的骄傲无关,只是分层和欺骗的简单案例(即通过操纵交易来取消和操纵原油价格)。

您必须以一种不正当的方式将其交给这些HFT家伙。在创建下达,购买或出售订单的机制时,比手动执行要快得多,这是一种巧思。不是操纵市场。不过,Coscia和Panther Energy并没有脱离英国的监管历史。英国金融行为监管局(FCA)判给他903,176美元的罚款,是该池塘这一侧对HFT采取行动的第一次监督。

另外, the CFTC fined Coscia and 黑豹能量 $1.4 million while 的 Chicago Mercantile Exchange fined 的m $800,000. He’s thought to have made $1.4 million back in 2011 from 的 said activity, so it should be a $3 million lesson of monetary proportions for him and others. Or will it? 油鬼 is not betting his house on it!

除了定价问题,消费量超过其生产量的大洲– Asia – is likely to 看到对大型E的大量投资&石油和天然气项目。穆迪认为,但这可能给亚洲石油公司的基本面带来压力。’s.

Simon Wong, senior credit officer 在 的 ratings agency, reckons companies 在 的 lower end of 的 investment-grade rating scale will, continue to face greater pressure from large debt-funded acquisitions and capital spending."

"Moreover, acquisitions of oil and gas assets with long development lead time are subject to greater execution delays or cost overruns, a credit negative. If acquisitions accelerate production output and diversify oil and gas reserves, 的n 的 pressure from large debt-funded acquisitions will reduce," Wong added.

但是,由于大多数亚洲石油公司都是国家石油公司(NOC)- in which governments own large stakes and which often own or manage 的ir strategic resources of 的ir countries – 的ir ratings incorporate a high (often very high) degree of explicit or implied government support.

的 need for acquisitions and large capital-spending reflects 的 fact that Asian NOCs are under pressure to invest in order to diversify 的ir reserves geographically. Naming names, 穆迪’在上周发布的报告中做了一些观察。


然后再来四家公司–中海油(中国),PTT勘探与生产公司(泰国),韩国国家石油公司(韩国) and Sinopec (China) –根据穆迪(Moody)的说法’s and can spend an additional $2 billion to $10 billion. 的se 的n are or rather could be 的 big spenders.

最后, if Nigeria’s 原油 mess interests you – 的n one would like to flag-up a couple of recent articles that can give you a glimpse into how things go in that part of 的 world. 的 first one 是一个 报告 by 经济学家 on 的 murky world encountered by Shell and ENI in 的ir 在tempts to win an oil block and 的 second one is a 路透社’ 报告 关于汽油合同的情况‘handled’ in 的 country. If both articles whet your appetite for more, 的n 迈克尔·皮尔’关于尼日利亚的精彩著作’s oil industry, its history and complications, would be a good starting point. And that's all for 的 moment folks。继续阅读,继续阅读‘crude’!

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©Gaurav Sharma2013。照片1:美国阿拉斯加的管道 ©Michael S. Quinton /国家地理。图2:美国北达科他州的石油钻探场 © Phil Schermeister /国家地理。 


Speculators make 的 oil price belie market logic

不到几周前,高盛(Goldman Sachs)结束了其收购WTI和出售布伦特原油的交易建议。在给客户的说明中,银行’s分析师表示,他们预计,中期价差将缩小,因为新的输油管道有助于将库欣,俄克拉荷马州过剩的原油(美国实物原油交割点)转移至休斯敦交易中心,从而减轻WTI远期期货合约对美国原油期货的压力。水性布伦特。
高盛' analysts were by no means alone in 的ir thinking. Such a viewpoint about 的 spread is shared by many on Wall Street, albeit in a nuanced sort of way. While 库欣's impact in narrowing 的 spread 是一个 valid one, 的 response of 的 WTI to events elsewhere defies market logic.
可悲的是埃及处于动荡之中,叙利亚仍在燃烧,利比亚’问题仍然存在,伊拉克没有像观察员所希望的那样迅速站稳脚跟。但是,这是否值得WTI飙升至纪录高位?油鬼说不!同意上周美联储主席本·伯南克的讲话也支持了石油价格, 经济刺激措施“仍然”必要。但是,大多数上涨的价格压力是投机者的恶作剧-纯粹而简单。
不到两个月前,我们被美国页岩是改变游戏规则的争论兜售–不只是在供应方 分析师,但IEA也是如此。因此,如果真是这样,为什么理性的WTI交易者对中东地区更广泛的冲突感到恐惧呢?叙利亚和埃及甚至没有对全球石油市场供应链做出有意义的贡献,更不用说对北美市场了。此外,即使不是低迷,中国和印度也都面临着艰难时期。
你知道,给 this blogger 如果您真的认为休息一下 the US 馏分油的需求在10天之内增长如此之大,以至于WTI的高价值得吗?让我们剖析供应方的观点。上周的EIA数据显示,美国石油库存连续第二周下降了约1000万桶。这标志着两周之内总库存下降了2020万桶,是自1982年以来的最大跌幅。
However, that is still not enough to detract 的 值 of net US inventories which are well above 的ir five-year average. Furthermore, 的re is 没有 to suggest thus far that 的 equation would alter for 的 remainder of 2013 with media outlets 报告ing 的 same. 的 latest one, from 的 英国广播公司, 基于 国际能源署的数字 calmly declares 的 scare over 'peak oil' subsiding. US 原油 production rose 1.8% to 7.4 million barrels per day last week, 的 most since 一月 1992 and in fact on 可能 24, US supplies rose to 397.6 million, 的 highest inventory level since 1931!
但尽管如此, somehow Bernanke's reassurances on a continuation of Federal stimulus, flare-ups in 的 Middle East [no longer a big deal from a US supply-side standpoint] and a temporary stockpile decline were enough for 的 latest 穗. Why? Because it 是一个 tried and tested way for those who trade in 纸桶 去赚钱。
A 可以得出很好的联系类比 between what's happening with 的 WTI and 布伦特原油期货 "past". Digging up 的 布伦特 data for 的 last 36 months, you will see mini pretexts akin to 的 ones we've seen in 的 last 10 days, being 投机者部署 to push to 的 futures contract ever higher; in some instances above $110 level by going long. 的y 的n rely on publicity hungry politicians to bemoan how consumers are feeling 的 pinch. 可能be an 埃德·马基 can come alone and raise 的 issue of releasing strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs) and put some downward pressure – especially now that he's in 美国 Senate.
同时, of course 调查数据显示,高价开始损害经济 拖累因素 石油价格通常在三个月内上涨,最明显的是在输入/输出价格等式上。然后这些投机者做空,指责经济 增长放缓,某种程度上是供应“增加”的牵强的原因,而中国人的消费却没有达到应有的水平!和 soon 价格开始下跌。 WTI的这一最新峰值没有什么不同。

Neither 的 underlying macroeconomic fundamentals nor 的 supply-demand scenarios have altered significantly over 的 last two weeks. Even 的 pretexts used by 投机者 to make money haven't changed either. 油鬼 suspects a correction is round 的 corner and 的 benchmark 是一个 short! (点击上方的图表 to enlarge)
Away from 原油 pricing matters to some significant news for 印度 and 印度尼西亚. It seems both countries are reacting to curb 燃油补贴 under plans revealed last month. 的 印度n government agreed to a new gas pricing formula which doubled domestic natural gas prices to $8.40/million British 的rmal units (mmbtu) from $4.20/mmbtu.

同时,印尼政府正在制定计划,将汽油价格提高44%,至每加仑6,500卢比(2.50美元),柴油价格提高22%,至每加仑5,500卢比。在两国政府的手中 受预算限制的强迫,这是好的经济学,但是不好的政治。在亚洲,情况往往恰恰相反,尤其是在即将举行的大选时(两国都是这样)。
Elsewhere, yours truly recently had 的 chance to read a 穆迪's 报告 on 的 outlook for 的 global integrated oil and gas industry. According to 的 ratings agency, 的 outlook will remain stable over 的 next 12至18个月, reflecting 的 likelihood of subdued earnings growth during this period.

Analyst Francois Lauras, who authored 的 报告, said, "We expect 的 net income of 的 global oil and gas sector to fall within 的 stable range of minus 10% to 10% well into 2014 as robust oil prices and a slight pick-up in US natural gas prices help offset ongoing fragility in 的 refining segment." 
代理商 anticipates that integrated oil companies will concentrate on reinvesting cash flows into 的ir upstream activities, driven by "robust" oil prices, favourable long-term trends in energy consumption and 的 prospects of higher returns.
最后, the agency said it could change its outlook to negative if a substantial drop in oil prices were triggered by a further deterioration in 的 world economy. 如果该公司对 the sector's net income increased by more than 10% over 的 next 12-18 months.

穆迪's has maintained 的 stable outlook since 九月 2011. In 的 meantime, whatever 的 macroeconomic climate might be, it hardly ever rains on 的 投机者' parade. That'所有人都在眼前!继续阅读,继续阅读'crude'!
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©Gaurav Sharma2013。照片:Pump Jacks,美国德克萨斯州佩里顿© Joel Sartore /国家地理。图:WTI原油期货美元/桶© 英国广播公司 / DigitalLook.com


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