油鬼 spent last Friday evening downing a few drinks with a 'civil servant' of the diplomatic variety who'd returned back from the recently concluded
海牙核安全峰会，乌克兰的僵局主导了大多数对话。但在您兴奋之前，您的确没有
杰克·鲍尔'级通关八卦！
但是，有53个国家代表 –周围有很多西装，与流行的看法相反，硬朗的西装确实是八卦！可信的intel确实表明某些欧洲人做得很好。
克林顿·列文斯基 丑闻的印象是在地缘政治的新鲜环境中出现的：“我们与普京没有关系。”当然，就像克林顿回到过去一样，他们对事实的节俭也有所节俭。
The Americans already knew that but didn't say so out of diplomatic courtesy, 在 least not in public. 油鬼 wouldn't have been so courteous, but then yours truly isn't in the diplomatic service. From the 波罗的海s to the 巴尔干, 俄国n exports of natural gas dominate the energy spectrum built on hitherto seemingly inextricable relations, whether amicable or not.
Despite promising to diversify their supplies when the 佐治亚州n skirmish happened in 2008, not much has changed, as 油鬼 noted
本月初. As a direct consequence, US sanctions against 俄国 appear to 赌注ter structured compared to European ones which look like a rag-bag of measures to accommodate everyone and annoy no one –特别是普京总统，他一开始并不真正在乎他们！最紧迫的问题是–欧盟的能源方程现在如何？
正当诉讼渐渐结束时，JaroslavNeverovič
立陶宛能源部长 made an impassioned plea to 美国 to export more gas to Europe as a possible answer. Just as a sub-context, the 波罗的海 States are busy building LNG import terminals. Headline grabbing it may well have been, what Neverovič said, even if realised, would do little to curb European addiction to 俄国n gas over the medium term.
Supply-side diversity cannot be achieved in an instant, nor can 美国 solve the problem. If the capacity of all seven US 联邦能源管理委员会 and DOE approved LNG export terminals (so far) is totalled and it is hypothetically (or rather absurdly) assumed that the entire cargo would be dispatched to Europe – the volume would still only replace around 35% of the current level of 俄国n gas imports to Europe.
但是改变的是，正如诺沃维奇所证明的那样，波罗的海国家显然感到震惊。也许比2008年要多。波兰人也受到极大的骚动，甚至德国人都醒来并闻到咖啡的味道。下一个是什么？美国将进口LNG，挪威，英国和荷兰’集中的资源可以帮助三人。
但是，不仅如此，还引用了一篇精彩的社论
经济学家，这意味着欧洲人对阿尔及利亚，卡塔尔，阿塞拜疆和哈萨克斯坦的依赖似乎并不那么令人愉快。它补充说：“但是，向他们出售天然气的流氓越多，任何人就越难把欧洲当作人质。”因此，这是您“最差”的中期情景，必须从2008年开始而不是在2014年开始做准备！
Related to the situation, 惠誉评级 revised the corporate outlooks of nine 俄国n companies, including those of 俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司 and 卢克 to Negative. As with a situation of this nature there would be losers somewhere and winners elsewhere.
据评级机构称，BG，BP，壳牌和道达尔将属于其EMEA评级的石油。 & gas companies that stand to gain from a "potential shift" in EU countries' energy links with 俄国 over time. On the other hand, 俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司 and Ukraine's Naftogaz –没有猜中的奖品–最有可能发现自己处于竞争劣势。
Analysing a scenario where EU countries could be forced to "recast their approach to energy and economic links with 俄国 over time", as UK Foreign Secretary William Hague has suggested, Fitch said BG, 血压 , 壳牌和道达尔的股票处于良好位置。
例如，BG参与了FERC和DOE已经批准的三个出口LNG的美国项目。去年12月，BP与当地合作伙伴阿塞拜疆国家石油公司完成了Shah Deniz气田二期开发的最终投资决定。南部走廊天然气连接到欧洲的扩展使这些公司处于独特的位置，可以使欧盟的天然气供应多样化。
同时，Shell is the first company in the world to develop floating LNG (FLNG) facilities. The technology is an important development for the industry as it reduces both project costs and environmental impact. If Shell is able to replicate the 液化天然气 model it is deploying in Australia to diversify European supplies, it could give the company a competitive advantage over peers.
最终，道达尔（Total）同意获得英国北部潜在的鲍兰德页岩（Bowland Shale）的两个许可证中的40％的股份后，成为第一个投资英国页岩勘探的西方石油巨头。如果欧洲页岩气产量开始以有意义的方式增加，即使该公司成立初期，这项投资也可能使该公司抢先一步。实际上，在所有这四个案例中都处于起步阶段，惠誉（Fitch）同意，供应方利益将随着时间的推移而累积，而不是一夜之间。
Going the other way, 俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司, which supplied around a third of European gas volumes in 2013, faces the prospect of diminishing market share if the EU seeks alternative gas supplies, instead of simply alternative gas routes from 俄国 around Ukraine. "Europe may finally find the political will to reduce this percentage," Fitch adds.
至于纳富塔兹– it's in big trouble alright. Not only could the Ukrainian company face higher prices for gas supplies from 俄国 accompanied by reduced volumes for internal consumption, the road ahead is anything but certain!
Away from the EU and Ukraine, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne dropped a few 原油 morsels in his annual budget on 游行 19 to help British consumers and the industry. Fuel duty was frozen again, while passengers on some long-haul flights originating in the UK are set to pay less tax following a revamp of Air Passenger Duty (APD).
行驶2,000英里以上的乘客将支付B频段费率，具体取决于£67 to £268年，奥斯本告诉议会。他补充说，四个APD税阶中两个最高的税阶将从2015年起取消。目前，尽管距离通常相近，但从英国飞往美国的航班要比加勒比海便宜，奥斯本称这种情况为“疯狂和不公正”。因此，前往印度和加勒比海等目的地的长途航班的乘客可以期望很快支付较低的税率。
在采取行业措施时，奥斯本还提出了一项新的陆上勘探激励措施，其中部分利润等于公司合格陆上资本支出的75％，将免缴补充税。
然后，这部分利润将按30％的税率征税，而剩余利润将按62％的边际税率征税，这在石油行业通常是这样&在英国运营的天然气公司。除非您碰巧反对原则性的压裂，否则在当前充满压力的地缘政治气氛中，大胆而急需的举动顺利进行。
恩斯特能源税收服务总监罗伯特·霍奇斯（Robert Hodges）&Young表示，对于页岩气行业而言，这是一个可喜的消息，该页岩气行业需要投入大量资金以证明英国的商业储量。
“政府还宣布将与业界合作，以确保英国拥有正确的技能和供应链。这是一项重要承诺，将受到业界的欢迎，以确保英国最大程度地受益于英国发展。其本地的石油和天然气资源。”他补充说。
至于北海，我们看到了超高压，高温（HPHT）油田的一些动向，奥斯本（Osborne）提供了免税额，以免除钻井公司的部分利润。免税额至少等于公司在这些项目上产生的合格资本支出的62.5％。总理还表示，他将对整个行业的税收制度进行审查。
有些人很高兴，有些则不是。马士基石油和BG是Culzean和Jackdaw油田的主要运营商，率先受益。他们俩都表示不满，这将导致直接创造700多个工作岗位，并有可能在供应链中进一步增加8,000个工作岗位。但是，国际钻探承包商协会（IADC）声称，对钻机和住宿船的变更将使公司损失估计£来年有1.45亿。大堂组油&英国天然气公司也对成本上涨表示担忧，但对奥斯本提出的其他建议表示欢迎。
除此以外，还有一个很小的非英国问题可以抛。据最近
全球数据 报告似乎是肯尼亚第一个石油 &预计最早不会在2014年第四季度获得天然气许可回合。第一轮许可最初定于去年6月，出价为8个区块。然后一切都变得安静了。现在，GlobalData表示将会实现，但是计划在新能源法案通过之前暂时停滞了。
Factors in the WTI rear-view mirror included supply shrinkage 在 Cushing, Oklahoma; down for the eighth successive week last Friday and the lowest in two years, according to the 环评. 利比亚n, Nigerian supply outages had a bearing on 布伦特, but it's nothing to write home about this fortnight. Much of the risk is already priced in, especially as 利比亚n outages are something City traders are getting pretty used to and Nigeria is nothing new. 那'所有人都在眼前！继续阅读，继续阅读'crude'!
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