梯形XL闹剧和铁路货轮的微笑

奥巴马政府’s long anticipated rejection 的 梯形XL project –[从艾伯塔省的哈迪斯提（Hististy），到德克萨斯州的亚瑟港（Port Arthur，Texas）]扩展到亚博备用和美国之间已经存在的跨国管道– on 5 十一月 hardly came as a surprise to the 油and gas industry. But is it finally the end 的 saga? Not quite, only for the Obama 白色的房子 staff. 

一旦新任美国总统任职，项目发起人就可以（如果有可能的话）选择发起新的申请，包括修正案和新提案。坦率地说，开发可能是新的，但要点不是’t.

传奇 连续拖了七年，演变成一场闹剧，甚至为喜剧演员提供了素材 乔恩·斯图尔特 在不止一次的情况下（点击这里). However jokes apart whatever side 的 argument you are, that the whole thing got dragged into the quagmire of US politics in the way that it did, is no laughing matter.

该博客作者一直认为，该项目的拒绝并不是某种形式的 fatal blow to 亚博备用 ’s 油and gas industry，但不便之处在于，这是在市场出现更大困难的时候。 亚博备用金融界的几位分析师对此表示赞同 and rail freight companies probably cheered the rejection, despite their own problems with safety related issues and incidents when it comes to moving 原油 oil.

Of course, moving 原油 by rail to the Gulf Coast costs almost double per barrel in the region of $7.00 to $11, but for some it won't be a choice. Moving 原油 by rail is also probably twice as much environmentally unfriendly, something few 的 pipeline extension's naysayers appear to be touching on.

需要进行一些中期调整。作为 在2013年提到的Oilholic, 全亚博备用 is already forging ahead with a West to East pipeline corridor aimed 在 bringing domestic 原油 in meaningful volumes from 艾伯塔省 to Quebec and New Brunswick by 2017 and 2018 respectively. Additionally, considerable amount of lobbying is afoot in terms of looking towards Eastern markets, especially 中国 (despite the recent 油price decline), via 不列颠哥伦比亚省’s coastline. 

至于近期，穆迪’s预计到2017年第四季度，目前可用的管道和铁路运输将满足预期的产量增长。

“Post 2017, we expect that as 油egress from 亚博备用 becomes constrained, additional rail capacity will fill the void until one 的 three proposed major domestic pipelines –亚博备用跨境能源公司，肯德摩根（Kinder Morgan）跨山公司扩建或恩布里奇（Enbridge）北部门户–被批准并建造，” said 穆迪’的分析师特里·马歇尔（Terry Marshall）。 

There already exists about 550,000 桶 per day (bpd) of unused rail capacity in 西 亚博备用 在 present, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers' (CAPP) data. 那’超过了2015年将用于运输石油的约200,000 bpd的产能，而且很少，包括穆迪’s analysts, are in any doubt that moving 原油 by rail will rise in all likelihood.

Rail freighters' joy is also likely to be further prolonged by the current political climate in 亚博备用 . With the 油and gas industry friendly Stephen 哈珀 administration having been voted out after nine years in office, it is all but guaranteed the new 自由党政府 选举前的承诺“重做国内管道审批流程” will go ahead.

Not quite clear on the minutiae and what this would entail until details are published and then put to the Canadian parliament later down the year. However, having seen plenty of such overtures in numerous jurisdictions, the Oilholic feels an increase in cost and timescale 的 regulatory process is highly likely, alongside the escalating cost of environmental compliance in 亚博备用 . 

All of this comes 在 a time when Canadian 油exploration and production companies could well have done without it. A tough few years are on the horizon. 那’所有人都在眼前！继续阅读，继续阅读‘crude’! 

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© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2015. Photo: Railway 油tankers outside of 卡尔加里, 艾伯塔省, 亚博备用 ©Gaurav Sharma，2011年3月.

40-50美元的范围，CAPP在Capex＆Afren的困境中

The first month of 油trading in 2015 is coming to a much calmer end compared to how it began. The year did begin with a 禁止g with 布伦特 shedding over 11% in the first week 单独进行完整交易。从那以后，唯一的瞬间戏剧发生在 布伦特 and WTI levelled 在 US$48.05 per barrel 在1月16日的某一时刻，总体而言，两个基准价格都基本维持在44美元至49美元的范围内，1月的大部分时间里布伦特平均溢价为3美元以上。

There is a growing realisation in City circles that 卖空者 may have gotten ahead 的mselves a bit just as 那些去了很久的人去年夏天做了. Agreed, 油is not down to sub-$40 levels seen during the global financial crisis. However, if the price level seen then is adjusted for the strength 的 dollar now, then the levels being seen 在 the moment are actually below those seen 六年前.

The big question right now is not where the 油price is, but rather that should we get used to the $40 to $50 range? The answer is yes for now because between them the US, 俄国 and Saudi Arabia are pumping well over 30 million 桶 per day (bpd) and everyone from troubled 利比亚 to calm 亚博备用 is prodding along despite the pain of lower 油prices as producing nations.

后者实际上提供了一个例子，在1月初 西 Canadian Select 确实跌破了40美元，并且即将维持在31美元以上。但是，油鬼的轶事证据表明，产量大幅度下降。

为了什么 ’s worth, it seems the Canadians are mastering the art of spending less yet producing more relative to 去年, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP). The lobby group said last week that production in 西 亚博备用 , bulk of which is accounted for by 艾伯塔省, would grow by 150,000 bpd to reach 3.6 million bpd in 2015. 

那’尽管主要石油和天然气公司的累计资本支出总和预计将以年率计算下降33％。标题生产数据实际上是CAPP的向下修订’预测的日产量为370万桶，此前的预期是要钻9,555口井，也下降了30％，至7,350口。然而，总体产量预测已经轻松超过了2014年的水平，而且修订还远远不够（尚未）对亚博备用产生有意义的影响’对全球总供应池的贡献。 

加上上述全球供应过剩，中国需求没有回升的迹象。除非供应方从根本上改变或需求方振作起来，否则Oilholic认为布伦特和西德克萨斯中质油的当前价格范围大约是合理的。 

但是将改变它，因为当前的生产水平根本无法维持。有人必须眨眼，就像您的确说的那样 提示电视 – it’s likely to be the 俄国ns and US independent upstarts. The new 沙特国家元首-萨勒曼国王 不太可能改变其已故前任国王阿卜杜拉（Abdullah）设定的路线。实际上，在新国王之中’的首要行动是保留独特的 Ali Al-Naimi as 油minister. 

希腊 too is a non-event from an 油market standpoint in a direct sense. The country does not register meaningfully on the list of either major 油importers or exporters. However, its economic malaise and political upheavals might have an indirect bearing via troubles in the Eurozone. 油鬼 sees $1= €美元兑一篮子货币走强，1指日可待。当然，美元走强将反映在两个基准的价格中。

在其他新闻中， 在伦敦上市的阿夫伦（Afren）的麻烦继续 and the Oilholic has knocked his target price of 120p for the company down to 20p. First, there was bolt out 的 blue last 八月 that the company was investigating “receipt of unauthorised payments potentially for the benefit 的 CEO and COO.” 

在此危险信号之后，不久前，Afren将其在伊拉克库尔德斯坦地区的Barda Rash油田的产量估算值下调了1.9亿桶石油当量。 阿夫伦说，储量的变动归功于2014年对3D地震镜头的2014年再处理和2013年的处理，以及钻探活动的结果。 

It is presently thinking about utilising a 30-day grace period under its 2016 bonds with respect to $15 million of interest due on 1 二月. 那’在该公司确认推迟支付2015年1月底到期的5,000万美元的摊销款项后。昨天，惠誉评级将Afren的长期发行人违约评级（IDR）及其高级担保评级从“ B-”下调至“ C”。它反映了代理’s认为即将到来的默认值。

同时，S&P已将俄罗斯降级’的主权评级为垃圾级。该机构现在将俄罗斯评为BB +级。“Russia’货币政策的灵活性变得更加有限，其经济增长前景也有所减弱。我们还看到，由于外部压力增加和政府对经济的支持增加，外部和财政缓冲会恶化的风险越来越高，” S&P noted.

远离评级机构的笔记，这里是石油狂人’石油价格下跌对航空公司和乘客意味着什么’s latest 福布斯 片。另外，这里’s another 福布斯 贴在 北海’s response to a possible 油price drop to $40，并入BP’s pessimistic view that 油price is likely to lurk around $50 for the next three years.

For the record, this blogger does not think 油prices will average around $50 for the next three years. One suspects that neither does 血压 ; rather it has more to do with prudent forward planning. 那’所有人都在眼前！继续阅读，继续阅读‘crude’!

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©Gaurav Sharma 2015年。照片：与阿拉斯加的布鲁克斯山脉（Brooks Range）相连的输油管道，美国©迈克尔·S·昆顿/国家地理

布伦特’的流动性，尼克森，“原油”温哥华等

Last Friday, the 布伦特 forward month futures price plummeted to US$110.65 per barrel thereby losing all 的 gains it made in 2013. The WTI price declined in near furious tandem to US$91.92; the 基准价格是自1月4日以来的最低盘中价格。国会僵局迫使意大利政治僵局和美国削减支出，释放了看跌趋势。坦率地说，棘手的不利因素’不会很快到任何地方。

Prior to the onset of recent bearish trends, Bank of America said the upper limit for 布伦特 原油 will rise from US$140 per barrel this year to US$175 in 2017 because of constraints on supply. It added that WTI may slip to “未来两年内$ 50”在北美供应蓬勃发展的情况下。同时，评级机构穆迪（Moody）’s expects strong global 原油 prices in the near term and beyond, with a continued US$15 per barrel premium in favour of 布伦特 versus WTI over 2013.

穆迪's still assumes that 布伦特 原油 will sell for an average US$100 per barrel in 2013, US$95 in 2014, and US$90 in the medium term, beyond 2014. For WTI, the agency leaves its previous assumptions unchanged 在 US$85 in 2013, 2014 and thereafter. Away from the fickle pricing melee, there was a noteworthy development last month in terms of 布伦特’的流动性概况作为基准，并将提高。

2月19日， 普氏 proposed the introduction of a quality premium for Ekofisk and 奥斯伯格 原油s; two 的 four grades constituting the Dated 布伦特 marker. A spokesperson said the move would increase transparency and trading volumes in Dated 布伦特. The proposal came a mere fortnight after 贝壳’对包括布伦特在内的三种北海混合物的贸易合同进行的调整。

这家石油巨头表示，将改变其买卖合同（SUKO 90），为交付更高质量的布伦特，Ekofisk和Oseberg等级引入溢价。以前，它仅使用Forties等级，该等级通常是最便宜的布伦特混合油，因此默认情况下用于对基准进行定价。 血压 有 also agreed to 贝壳’原则上修订了定价建议。

油鬼 thinks it is prudent to note that even though 普氏 is the primary provider of price information for 北海 原油(s), actual contracts such as 贝壳’SUKO 90是行业’s own model. So in more ways than one, a broad alignment 的 thinking of both parties (and 血压 ) is a positive development. 普氏能源资讯要求业界在3月10日之前提供有关此举的反馈意见，更改内容将从5月的发货开始生效。

但是，有一些细微的差异。尽管壳牌公司提议将布伦特原油纳入其中，但普氏能源资讯仅建议对Oseberg和Ekofisk牌号收取溢价。根据公开资料，该石油专业与BP’经批准，根据布伦特和奥塞贝格与四十年代的差额，提议将布伦特和奥斯本的溢价提高25％，将埃考菲斯克的溢价提高50％。

但是普氏能源资讯正在就建议将Oseberg和Ekofisk的溢价均定为50％征求反馈。但是，在 a dip in 北海 production, a change of pricing status quo aimed 在 boosting liquidity ought to be welcomed. Furthermore, there is evidence of activity picking up in the UK sector 的 北海, with Oil and Gas UK (OGUK), a body representing over 320 operators in the area, suggesting last month that investment was 在 a 30-year high.

奥古克说，公司投资了 £2012年将有114亿美元用于北海勘探，预计这一数字将上升到£今年130亿。它归功于英国总理乔治·奥斯本（George Osborne）’去年宣布了新的税收减免措施，该措施允许浅水气田免征第一笔32％的税£5亿美元的收入是关键因素。

However, 奥古克 warned that reserves currently coming onstream have not been fully replaced with new DIScoveries. 那 is hardly surprising! In fact, UK production fell to the equivalent of 1.55 million 桶 per day (bpd) in 2012, down by 14% from 2011 and 30% from 2010. While there may still be 24 billion 桶 of 油to be found in the 北海, the glory days are not coming back. Barrel burnt per barrel extracted or if you prefer Petropounds spent for prospection 只会上升。

从北海’的未来，北海运营商的未来– 亚博备用 ’s 尼克森 –被中国收购’s state-owned 中海油 was finally approved on 二月 26. It took seven long months for the US$15.1 billion takeover to reach fruition pending regulatory approval in several jurisdictions, not least in 亚博备用 .

It was announced that shareholders 的 卡尔加里, 艾伯塔省-based 尼克森 would get US$27.50 in cash for each share, but the conditions imposed by Canadian (and US) regulators for the deal to win approval were not DISclosed. More importantly, the 哈珀 administration said that 中海油-Nexen was the last deal of its kind that the Canadian government would approve.

So it is doubtful that a state-controlled 油company 将会 taking another majority stake in the 油砂 any time soon. The 尼克森 acquisition makes 中海油 a key operator in the 北海, along with holdings in 墨西哥湾和西非，中东，当然还有亚博备用在艾伯塔省的长湖油砂项目（及其他项目）。

同时，穆迪’s说，在收购尼克森之后，中海油和中海油的Aa3评级和稳定的前景将保持不变。该机构还将继续审查升级尼克森的Baa3高级无抵押评级和Ba1次级债务评级。

离开尼克森，但坚持该地区，该国’s 亚博备用业务 杂志问 “温哥华是新卡尔加里吗？”  (Er…we’不在这里谈论改变天气模式）。答案以“粗俗”的说法， is a firm “Yes.” 油鬼 has been pondering 在这好几年了。这个谦虚的博客’s 研究 从2010年至今，在卡尔加里和温哥华，一直表明 oil & gas 在卑诗省有业务。

然而，真正令人惊讶的是这一切的步伐。在石油狂热者就此问题进行思考的时间之间 去年 和2013年2月， 亚博备用业务 记者布莱尔·麦克布莱德 写 那五个新油&天然气公司已经在温哥华。可靠的传闻证据 整个美国边境，特别是得克萨斯州，都暗示着他们正在前进！雪佛龙公司可以肯定地说，埃克森美孚很可能紧随其后。

可以肯定的是，他们’很快就要在温哥华国际和休斯敦之间需要更多直航’s George Bush Intercontinental airport other than the solitary Continental Airlines route. Hello, anyone from Air 亚博备用 reading this post?

继续发布企业新闻，壳牌宣布在2013年剩余时间暂停在北极的海上钻探计划，以便有时间“确保设备和人员的准备就绪。”人们普遍预计，当美国司法部正在调查安全故障时，阿拉斯加楚科奇海和博福特海的勘探将被暂停。

壳牌公司于2005年首次获得了在阿拉斯加海岸线上勘探北冰洋的许可证。自那以后，£去年短的夏季钻井季节，已花费30亿美元建造了两口探井。但是，这并不能掩盖该倡议受到困扰的事实，包括最近在钻机上起火。

同时，Repsol有 宣布出售 出售给壳牌的LNG资产总计67亿美元。交易 includes 雷普索尔’在大西洋液化天然气的少数股权（特立尼达 &多巴哥），秘鲁LNG和Bahia de Bizkaia Electricidad（BBE），以及LNG销售合同和定期租船合同以及相关的贷款和债务。它’对Repsol有利’的信用等级和壳牌’s gas reserves.

作为BP’s trial over the 墨西哥湾 油spill 从上个月开始，穆迪’s表示，巨大的财务不确定性将继续给公司带来压力 ’s credit profile until the size 的 ultimate potential financial liabilities arising from the 四月 2010 spill is known.

Away from the trial, the agency expects 血压 's cash flows to strengthen from 2014 onwards as the company begins to reap benefits 的 large roster of upstream projects that it is working on, many of which are based in high-margin regions. “相对于2013年预期的劣势，这将有助于加强该集团的信用指标，” 穆迪’s notes.

企业新闻的最后一点， 维托尔 –世界最大的石油贸易公司–  has posted a 2% rise in its 2012 revenue to US$303 billion even though volumes traded fell and profit margins remained under pressure for much 的 year. While not placing too much importance on the number, it must be noted that a US$300 billion-plus revenue is more than what Chevron managed and a first for the trading company.

但是，假设雪佛龙公司绝对安全’s profits would be 比维多高得多’s. Regrettably, other than relying on borderline gossip, the Oilholic cannot conduct a comparison via published sources. 那’的原因是，与雪佛龙（Chevron）这样的石油巨头不同，维托尔·唐（Vitol don）这样的私人贸易公司’发布他们的利润数字。

那’目前所有人都是如此。但最后，这位博客作者想举报英国的研究’s Nottingham Trent University which suggests that 利比亚 could generate approximately five times the amount of energy from solar power than it currently produces in 原油 oil!

大学’s 建筑设计与建筑环境学院 发现如果北非国家–估计是88％的沙漠地形– used 0.1% of its landmass to harness solar power, it could produce almost 7 million 原油 oil barrels worth of 每天消耗能量。目前，利比亚的日产量约为141万桶。确实值得深思！继续阅读，继续阅读‘crude’!

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© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2013. Photo 1: Oil tanker, 英吉利湾, BC, 亚博备用 . Photo 2: Downtown 温哥华, BC, 亚博备用 © 高拉夫·夏尔马

阿尔伯塔省的潜在管道对卑诗省意味着什么

如果TransCanada在2012年美国总统大选后未批准从阿尔伯塔省Hardisty到得克萨斯州阿瑟港的Keystone XL管道的新许可申请，则注意力将转移到在亚博备用向西扩展管道网络。如果该项目得到批准，那么人们的注意力仍将转移到在亚博备用向西扩展管道网络。

油鬼 ’可以推测，亚博备用内部的政策辩论已经考虑到向西扩展管道的问题，这些管道将通过太平洋海岸出口到中国，日本，印度以及其他地区，无论是否建造了Keystone XL管道。当美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马（Barack Obama）今年初未批准原始Keystone XL管道申请时，亚博备用总理斯蒂芬·哈珀（Stephen 哈珀）表示‘disappointment’在亚太地区领导人峰会上与奥巴马进行了坦率的交谈，然后乘飞机飞往中国。

在最近的记忆中，他还曾赴印度执行高级任务。在 去年在多哈举行的第20届世界石油大会, 印度n officials listened intently to what was coming out 的 Canadian camp. Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) has already noted increasing interest from Korean and other Asian players as well when it comes to buying in to both 原油 油reserves and natural gas in 西 亚博备用 . Club it all together and a westward expansion is inevitable.

向西扩张的中心是不列颠哥伦比亚省（BC），毗邻亚博备用的艾伯塔省， 就管道基础设施而言，这可能与艾伯塔省本身的原油原料一样重要。从一个角度‘crude’打个比方，情况有点像南苏丹（拥有所有资源）和苏丹（拥有将资源推向市场的基础设施），而亚博备用的命运是零冲突或地缘政治爆发。感谢亚博备用和进口商俱乐部，艾伯塔省和不列颠哥伦比亚省 也比苏丹同行好一点，什么是阿尔伯塔省’的收益也可能是卑诗省的收益。

去年，CAPP总裁戴夫·科利尔（Dave Collyer）在卡尔加里（Calgary）与石油狂人会面时指出，“As our 原油 production grows we would like access to the wider 原油 油markets. Historically those markets have almost entirely been in the US and we are optimistic that these would continue to grow. Unquestionably there is increasing interest in the Oil sands from overseas and market diversification to Asia is neither lost on Canadians nor is it a taboo subject for us.”

目前，有五条主要管道直接连接到埃德蒙顿和哈迪斯蒂的艾伯塔省供应中心。–Enbridge Mainline，Enbridge 艾伯塔省 Clipper，Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain，Kinder Morgan Express，当然还有原始的TransCanada Keystone管道。

Of these, the Trans Mountain system transports 原油 to delivery points in BC, including the Westridge dock for offshore exports, and to a pipeline that provides deliveries to refineries in the US state of Washington. It is the only pipeline route to markets off the West coast and is currently operating as a common carrier pipeline where shippers nominate for space on the pipeline without a contract. Since 可能 2010, the pipeline has been in steady apportionment.

Excess demand for this space is expected to continue until there is additional capacity available to transport 原油 油to the west coast for export according to 卡普. The available pipeline capacity depends on the amount of heavy 原油 油transported. (For example, in 2010, about 27% 的 volumes shipped were heavy 原油 oil).

因此，通过 BC (见上面的地图) –分别是Enbridge 北部门户（从艾伯塔省的Bruderheim到不列颠哥伦比亚省的Kitimat，容量：每天525,000桶），Kinder Morgan TMX2（从艾伯塔省的埃德蒙顿到BC的坎卢普斯，容量：80,000 bpd），Kinder Morgan TMX3（从BC的坎卢普斯到Sumas，BC，容量：240,000至300,000 bpd）和Kinder Morgan TMX Northern Leg（Rearguard / Edmonton，Alberta到BC，Kitimat，容量：400,000 bpd）。

鉴于它’s green BC in question, there already are legal impediments as well as a major bid to address the concerns 的 Native 印度n First Nations communities according to the Oilholic’的本地反馈。在西海岸，应该并正在认真对待环境尽职调查。然后在下一次选举中会有一个社会主义的新民主党省政府或一个悬而未决的议会的幽灵。 不列颠哥伦比亚省，这可能会妨碍活动和投资。

考虑到所有这些因素，现实地说，在2015年之前可能不会发生很多事情，但是该省内部越来越多的人相信，发生这种情况的可能性最大，而对省级经济的好处将是多方面的。首先，想到与拟议中的管道和收入相关的直接建设。此外，该省服务业的工作可能会持续十年之久。

Then given that BC has a proven crown agency in 卑诗省伙伴关系 which since its inception has been building generally 禁止kable infrastructure projects; an ancillary social infrastructure boom to cater to what 将会come a burgeoning Kitimat and Kamloops is also within the realm of possibility.

在过去的十天中，Oilholic聚集了法律专业人士，财务顾问，省级公务员以及最后但同样重要的是不列颠哥伦比亚’d碰到酒吧或星巴克。尽管每个人都承认障碍，但压倒一切的情绪是一种积极的态度。

此外，许多人认为 the pipelines 有助于多元化 BC's economy which is largely reliant on tourism and timber to include yet another key sector without necessarily compromising its green credentials and a record of accommodating the First Nations Native 印度n population. 那’都是亚博备用人！您真正的去德克萨斯州休斯顿。继续阅读，继续阅读‘crude’!

© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2012. Map: Proposed (in dotted lines) and existing pipelines to the West Coast of 亚博备用  © 卡普 2011.

Tankers in 英吉利湾 & 亚博备用 's Confidence

油鬼 headed to downtown 温哥华 from the suburbs this afternoon, up on Burrard Street, turning right on Davie Street, down Jervis Street straight through to Sunset Beach in order to get a look in 在 the 英吉利湾 which is quite a sight. Standing 禁止g in the middle 的 beach, to your left 将会 Granville Island, the Burrard Bridge overlooking it and Granville Bridge reaching out to it.

To your right 将会 two more beaches and Stanley Park on the 温哥华 Downtown Peninsula and looking out to the horizon you’ll see pristine waters 的 Bay littered with tankers （请参见左上方的图片，点击放大）。该观点是亚博备用西部的辩护’s growing 原油 credentials and its clout in the world of 油&天然气出口。您的真正和其他旁观者经常会在地平线上发现奇特的石油或LNG油轮，该油轮往返温哥华港和进入穆迪港的进港码头。但是，今天下午，Oilholic数了12艘油轮，而您以前真正的最大数次是前五次访问海湾！

人们对亚博备用的能源业务有了新的信心，而且制造业领先的东海岸/东部主导的宏观经济动态也显着地改变了经济实力的平衡。 of the 1950年代开始以自然资源为主导，自2005年左右开始由西海岸/西方主导的经济。此外，以蒙特利尔和多伦多为枢纽的移动金融服务行业现在看起来越来越向西。律师事务所和咨询公司通过扩大在卡尔加里和温哥华的业务以及合作伙伴网络，在亚博备用西部增加了业务。

卡尔加里 now has more corporate headquarters than Montreal. Of the top 20 most profitable Canadian companies by exchange filings in 2010, eight were natural resources companies with a 西 Canadian slant (viz. Suncor, Barrick, Imperial Oil, PCS, Teck, CNR, Goldcorp and EnCana).

A recently spurned merger between natural resources and 禁止king sector(s) dominated stock exchanges of London (LSE) and Toronto (TSX) would have been ideal. But much to the DISmay 的 Oilholic, the Canadians involved wanted to go it alone and whether you agree or not. In more ways than one LSE and TSX are rivals, especially when it comes to 在tracting mining companies.

在渥太华改头换面–首相斯蒂芬·哈珀（Stephen 哈珀）是艾伯塔省的一个人。亚博备用银行行长马克·卡尼，首席大法官贝弗利·麦克拉克林和无与伦比的Rt。老公乔·奥利弗– the country’的自然资源部长，也是七国集团中最具声望的部长级部长– are all ‘Western’ Canadians.

自2001年起每年访问亚博备用一次，石油狂人见证了亚博备用政治和国家的转型’是经济的第一手资料，从积极意义上讲，它已经非同寻常。哈珀’s “油浸沙海洋” in Northern 艾伯塔省 has more 的 原油 stuff than any other 原油 exporting country bar Saudi Arabia. Let’别忘了沙特人’储备头寸已经由亚博备用阿美公司核实’s已受到半个世界的审查’是不同政治倾向和说服力的独立验证者。

总价值亚博备用’根据各种估计，中国的自然资源在2009年的价格在1.1万亿美元至1.6万亿美元之间，仅沥青和页岩油就至少占其中的45％，这取决于与您交谈的金融分析师或经济学家。

“Canada’s biggest advantage as an 油exporter in the eyes 的 world is that it’没有沙特阿拉伯。此外，在一个充满不良品味的行业中，与亚博备用人打交道是一个可喜的变化，”匿名时打趣一名爱国分析家。

在石油行业中，没有道德上的绝对原则，也没有通往应许者的线性途径‘Crude’ Land. 亚博备用 will have its fair share of challenges related to extracting, refining and marketing the oil. The will to do so is certainly there and so are the buyers. 油鬼 ’s 木材贸易类比 从亚博备用人和喜欢它的务实的宏观分析师那里赢得了不少啤酒。这里有一个不容置疑的真理–1990年代，美国对亚博备用木材出口采取了经常性的不正当惩罚措施，这导致自由党统治下的亚博备用向东看日本和中国。

快进到2011-2012年，历史与奥巴马总统重演’在Keystone XL上抖动（尽管TransCanada’s reputation in relation to leaks has not helped either). Akin to the 1990s, there are other buyers in town for the Canadian 原油 stuff, with 印度 joining the tussle for Canadian 在tention along with 日本, South Korea and 中国.

当自由党领导的亚博备用联邦政府在1990年代寻找其他地方来推销和出售其主导的自然资源时，如果美国政府认为现今的保守党政府拥有议会多数席位，并且拥有像史蒂芬·哈珀（Stephen 哈珀）这样的强大人物韩元’谈到石油，同样（并且要早些），他们比任何人都在开玩笑。

The presence of Korean, 印度n and Chinese NOCs can be felt alongside top 20 IOCs in 卡尔加里. Not a single 油major worth its weight in 原油 油has chosen to ignore the 油砂, just as onlookers 在 Sunset Beach can’t ignore tankers on the 英吉利湾 horizon. 那’所有人都在眼前！继续阅读，继续阅读‘crude’!

©Gaurav Sharma2012。照片：石油& LNG tankers 在英吉利湾地平线上， British Columbia, 亚博备用 © 高拉夫·夏尔马 2012.

Canadian & 俄国n supply risk scenarios

复活节快乐！从加利福尼亚出发之后，Oilholic再次返回 Beautiful 不列颠哥伦比亚省, as vehicle licence plates from the province would point out, should you need reminding in these serene picturesque surroundings. When talking non-OPEC supply 的 原油 stuff – 俄国 and 亚博备用 always figure prominently in 最近的讨论，后者比以往任何时候都更加重要。

In fact, when it comes to holding exposure to 油price sensitivity, 正如一些分析师所建议的 未来两个季度，通过混合投资–俄罗斯股票和“链接自然资源”（并且尚未显示出荷兰疾病的迹象）包括俄罗斯卢布和加元在内的外汇交易比以往更加频繁地被举报。实际上，亚博备用元经常 called south 的 border by Americans as the “Loonie”（基于1加元硬币上的一只普通鸟），比世界更贵，更有价值’储备货币本身 在后全球金融危机时代。

Between 俄国 and 亚博备用 , given that the latter has a more diverse range of exports, the 俄国ns have a bigger problem when it comes to 油price swings. In fact, ratings agency S&P reckons that a sustained fall in the price of 油could damage the 俄国n economy and public finances and consequently lead to a cut 的 long-term sovereign rating.

“我们估计，油价每下跌10美元，将直接或间接导致政府收入占GDP下降1.4％。在严峻的形势下，每桶乌拉尔石油跌至并保持在60美元的平均水平。 ，我们预计俄罗斯联邦总赤字将超过GDP的8％。在这种情况下，俄罗斯联邦的长期评级可能会下降多达三个等级。”&P信用分析师Kai Stukenbrock。

过去十年中，石油价格的上涨支持了扩张性的财政政策，同时仍使该国得以建立财政储备。尽管如此，财政扩张，尤其是最近一次危机期间的大量反周期支出，已导致支出相对于GDP的大幅增加。

结果，尽管2011年石油收入创历史新高，&P estimates the general 俄国n government surplus 在 merely 0.8% of GDP. To balance the budget in 2012, the agency thinks the government will require an average 油price of US$120 per barrel.

尽管前俄罗斯财政大臣阿列克谢·库德林（Alexei Kudrin）也表达了对俄罗斯过分依赖石油价格的担忧，但大多数分析师对2012年的底价定在90美元至100美元的范围内。它仍然是它的原样–恐惧！另一个评级机构– 穆迪’上个月指出，由于过去两年积累的财务灵活性，俄罗斯综合石油评级为&天然气公司将能够在其当前评级类别中应对2012年的油价波动和其他新出现的挑战。

"In 2011, rated 俄国n players continued to demonstrate strong operating and financial results, underpinned by elevated 油prices," says Victoria Maisuradze, an Associate Managing Director in 穆迪's Corporate Finance Group. "Indeed, operating profits are likely to remain stable in 2012 as an increased tax and tariff burden will offset the benefits of high 原油 油prices. All issuers have stable outlooks and our outlook for the sector is stable."

然而，随着传统生产区的枯竭，在新地区开发储量仍然是俄罗斯面临的主要挑战。亚博备用人不知道的问题’不必面对。 2006年，总理史蒂芬·哈珀（Stephen 哈珀）的政治手掌比以往任何时候都要强大。他在伦敦的听众告诉伦敦，亚博备用的天然气产量在世界上排名第三，石油产量在世界上排名第七，水电和铀的市场领导者。他描述了它 six years ago as “just the beginning.”

哈珀’s journey to make 亚博备用 an ‘energy superpower’ is well and truly underway. 油鬼 charted 卡尔加里的景色 去年他访问艾伯塔省，并一直关注与 US ‘dis’批准Keystone XL管道项目 在2011-12年期间。在接下来的几天里，您真的可以通过不列颠哥伦比亚省对亚洲的预期出口来重新审视这个话题。

继续使用非欧佩克的补给品’在华沙的老朋友–惠誉国际（Fitch Ratings）能源，公用事业和法规总监Arkadiusz Wicik–他认为，尽管波兰地质研究所（PGI）3月份发布的令人失望的页岩气储量估算值，但波兰的页岩气仍可能改变该国的能源行业。

PGI估计最可能的页岩气可采储量在0.35到0.77万亿立方米（tcm）之间，约为美国能源信息署2011年4月估计的5.3 tcm的十分之一。PGI估计最大可回收的页岩气储量为1.92。厘米

Wicik believes it is still too early to make any meaningful assumptions about the future of shale gas in 波兰, believed to have one 的 highest development potentials in Europe. “国内外公司仅钻了不到20口勘探井，在许多情况下结果令人失望。从信用角度来看，我们认为页岩气勘探是高风险和资本密集型的​​。国内公司之间的合作关系，以共同承担勘探风险和成本，或者外国人的更多参与将是积极的，” he says.

如果在未来几年内证明天然气的商业可利用性，波兰能源公司的早期勘探将使他们有机会成为主要参与者。在美国情况并非如此，油页岩气行业是由许多规模较小的独立生产商开发的，正如Oilholic在一份特别报告中指出的那样 基础设施杂志. Large US 油and gas companies have only recently started to be active in the sector, mostly through acquisitions.

Wicik注意到，“我们并不认为美国的成功会轻易在波兰复制成功，而美国的成功导致美国天然气价格在2008年至2011年之间下降了约50％。鉴于高收支平衡成本，前五到十年的商业化生产不太可能大幅降低天然气价格。同样，波兰和美国在页岩形成和天然气市场结构方面都不同。”

许多外国公司已经在波兰拥有页岩气的勘探特许权，包括埃克森美孚，雪佛龙，康菲石油公司（通过与Lane Energy的服务协议），马拉松石油和埃尼公司。已获得勘探优惠的当地企业包括PGNiG，PKN Orlen，Grupa Lotos和Petrolinvest。

Another three large domestic companies - PGE, Tauron, and KGHM - also plan to enter shale gas exploration. In 一月 2012, they signed three separate letters of intent with PGNiG regarding cooperation in shale gas projects. 那’所有人都在眼前！继续阅读，继续阅读‘crude’!

©Gaurav Sharma2012。照片：石油Refinery, Quebec, 亚博备用 ©迈克尔·梅尔福德（Michael Melford）/国家地理。

梯形XL，政治& the King’s Speech

Even before the original Keystone cross-border pipeline project aimed 在 bringing Canadian 原油 油to the doorstep of US refineries had been completed, calls were growing for an extension. The original pipeline which links 耐性 (Alberta, 亚博备用 ) to Cushing (Oklahoma) and Patoka (Illinois) became operational in 六月 2010, just as another, albeit 在ypical US-Canadian tussle was brewing.

扩展项目– 梯形XL first proposed in 2008, again starting from 耐性 but with a different route and an extension to 休斯顿 and Port Arthur (Texas) is still stuck in the quagmire of US politics, environmental reticence, planning laws and bituminous mix 的 Canadian 油砂.

The need for extension is exactly what formed the basis 的 original Keystone project – 亚博备用 is already the biggest supplier of 原油 油to the US; and it is only logical that its share should rise and in all likelihood will rise. 梯形XL according to one of its sponsors – 全亚博备用 –该公司将有能力将现有产能每天提高591,000桶，尽管最初的派遣建议更有可能在510,000桶的范围内。

Having visited both the proposed ends 的 pipeline in 艾伯塔省 and 德州, the Oilholic finds the sense of frustration only too palpable more so because infrastructural challenges and the merits (or otherwise) 的 extension project are not being talked about. To begin with the project has a loud ‘fan’俱乐部和同样热闹的‘ban’俱乐部。由于这是一项跨境项目，美国国务卿希拉里·克林顿必须扮演裁判的角色。

一种模式似乎正在出现。由14名美国参议员和39名美国参议员以及跨境的美国参议员组成的小组会写信给她，解释对环境团体的好处，我发现他们的资金非常充裕–而不是他们自称的小家伙– launching a counter representation. 那 has been the drill since 克林顿 took office.

一位美国参议员告诉我，“If we can’如果在这种地缘政治气候下不信任亚博备用人，那么我们可以信任谁。你自己去检查一下”另一方面，一个环保组织由于油砂业务而试图吸引游客抵制艾伯塔省，因此尽力说服我不要在卡尔加里降落。无论如何我都是这样做的，无论如何都不是游客。

自2008年以来，TransCanada在管道沿线举行了近100场公开会议和公开会议；向地方，州和联邦官员提供了数百小时的证词，并向政府机构提交了数千页的信息以回应问题。环保主义者没有告诉我，但是对于猜测谁做和有证据没有奖励。这就是被交易的齐射。

送傻瓜’s errand!

并不是说TransCanda，其合作伙伴ConocoPhillips及其在美国和亚博备用的支持者知道我们不了解的事情。一个事实是几年以来–甚至在汽油消费水平下降的情况下–美国将保持世界’s largest importer of 原油 oil. 中国 should surpass it, but this will not happen overnight.

The opponents of 油砂 have gotten the narrative engrained in a wider debate on the environment and the energy mix. Going forward, they view 梯形XL and other incremental pipeline projects in the US as perpetuating reliance on 原油 油and are opposing the project on that basis.

鉴于当前的地缘政治气候，加利福尼亚和不列颠哥伦比亚省的环保组织给这位博主留下了深刻的印象：’s 油砂 –迄今仅次于沙特阿拉伯的第二大探明石油储量’加瓦尔开采区–会以某种方式使美国的油腻主义者早日沐浴并迫使他们迈入绿色时代。这是胡说八道。

互惠互利，这将增加美国对中东石油的依赖，并飙升价格。同意连接既不简单也不线性– but foreign supply will rise not fall. 梯形XL brings this 原油 foreign product from a friendly source.

Everyone in 艾伯塔省 admits work needs to be done by the industry to meet environmental concerns. However, a 'wells to wheels' analysis of CO2 emissions, most notably by IHS CERA and many North American institutions has confirmed that 油砂 原油 is only 5 to 15 per cent ‘dirtier’ than US sweet 原油 mix.

The figure compares favourably with Nigerian, Mexican and Venezuelan 原油 which the US already imports. So branding Canadian 原油 as dirty and holding up 梯形XL on this basis is a bit rich coming from the US. 梯形XL increases US access to Canadian 原油. Who would the Americans rather buy from 亚博备用 or Venezuela? Surveys suggest the former.

卡普的实用主义者

Over a meeting in 卡尔加里, 戴夫·科利尔, President of Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) told the Oilholic that they have always viewed 梯形XL as an opportunity to link up 西 亚博备用 to the US Gulf coast market, to replace production that would otherwise be imported by the US from overseas sources most notably Venezuela and Mexico where production is declining according to available data. There are also noticeable political impediments in case 的 former.

“We don’不会将此管道扩展视为该轨道上的增量供应，而是通过相对简单的管道项目来替代现有生产，类似于已经在美国建立的许多其他管道项目和扩展，” Collyer said.

能源基础设施参与者，市场评论员和CAPP提出了另一个正确的观点– why are we not debating scope 的 梯形XL project and its economic impact and focussing on the 原油 stuff it would deliver across the border? 卡普 for its part takes a very pragmatic line.

“我们是否认为针对Keystone的论点具有合法性？否（大部分情况下），但现实是在美国必须适当考虑。我想美国国务院除了采取一切谨慎措施以确保所有正当程序得到满足外，别无选择。使亚博备用人和美国人都沮丧的是时间的长短。但是，最终，当我们获得该批准时，它是一个强大的工具，可以经受严格的审查，然后’s a good thing,” Collyer said.

I！

亚博备用人和美国人首先开始争吵木材，这是亚博备用在美国需要的另一种资源，它涉及税收，道德，所谓的补贴，而其余的一切都可以追溯到1981年。三十年后，至今仍未发生太大变化。但是这些天来，每当美国人对木材行业采取一些反作用或采取其他行动时，它几乎不成为亚博备用的本地新闻。原因–自2003年以来，镇上又有一位买家– 中国.

In 2010, timber sales from 亚博备用 to 中国 (and 日本 to a lesser extent) exceed those to the US. Over the last half-decade timber exports from the province of 不列颠哥伦比亚省 alone to 中国 rose 10 times over on an annualised basis. Moral 的 story, the US is not the only player in town whatever the natural resource. Canadians feel a sense of frustration with the US, and rightly so according to Scott 生锈的米勒, managing partner of 奥美雷诺 (soon to be part of Norton Rose) in 卡尔加里.

“We are close to the US, we are secure and we have scruples. Our industry is more open to outside scrutiny and environmental standards than perhaps many or in fact any other country the US imports 原油 油from –但是存在这些法律障碍。仔细检查就可以了。它’在这项业务中势在必行，但不能使项目开始受挫，” Miller noted.

Ask anyone 在 卡普 or any Toronto-based market analyst if 亚博备用 could look elsewhere – you would get an answer back with a smile; only the Americans probably would not join them. 油鬼 asked Collyer if Americans should 恐惧 such moves.

他的答复是，“As our 原油 production grows we would like access to the wider 原油 油markets. Historically those markets have almost entirely been in the US and we are optimistic that these would continue to grow. Unquestionably there is increasing interest in the Oil sands from overseas and market diversification to Asia is neither lost on Canadians nor is it a taboo subject for us.”

卡普 has noted increasing interest from Chinese, Korean and other Asian players when it comes to buying in to both 原油 油reserves and natural gas in 西 亚博备用 . Interest alone does not create a market –但是在两端都有基础设施的支持，它加强了亚博备用人传统上不关注的市场之间的关系。所有这些都转移了对亚博备用西海岸出口的重视。

“通往西海岸的管道是否直截了当– we’所有人都会承认’不是。例如，Enbridge在网关管道方面面临挑战。有一个替代市场的兴趣。有一些驱动程序正在努力追求这一点，我将集体地说，这引起了“fear”您提到并有事实依据。但是，美国一直是一个巨大的市场，应该继续是一个巨大的市场...尽管有必要谨慎行事，” he concluded.

国王’s speech

We’re not talking about Bertie, (King George VI of England) but Barack (The King of gasoline consumers and the US President). On 游行 30th, the King rose and told his audience 在 Georgetown University that he 将会 targeting a one-third reduction in US 原油 imports by 2025.

“我制定了这个目标，因为我们知道’仍然需要进口一些石油。至于从其他国家/地区进口的石油，显然我们必须考虑像亚博备用和墨西哥这样的稳定​​，稳定和可靠来源的邻国，”他加了。尽管我可靠地获悉中国国家电视台并未对此讲话进行报道，但亚博备用媒体对此却表现过度。环球邮报，国家’的主要报纸宣布“奥巴马表示将重新依赖油砂。”

第二天，亚博备用石油和服务公司的股票在多伦多证券交易所上涨，即使天然气生产商也从中受益，美国“亲Keystone XL”参议员在网络上排队等候 实际上 说“我们爱你，我们是这样告诉你的。”除了大肆宣传之外，还有一个可靠的理由。 梯形XL桥接了这两个市场–一个友好的生产者，向具有广泛经济利益的友好消费者。

根据米勒的说法，“炼油能力存在于南部地区。与建设新的基础设施相比，美国墨西哥湾沿岸的一些炼油厂可以以更低的成本进行升级。双方都有机会获得经济机会– we are not just talking jobs, but an improvement 的 regional macro scenario. Furthermore, however short or long, it could be a shot in the arm for the much beleaguered and low-margin haunted refining business.”

The pipeline could also help Canadians export surplus 原油 using US ports in the Gulf and tax benefits could accrue not just 在 the Texan end but along the route as well. 那 the 油砂 are in 亚博备用 is a geological stroke of luck, given the unpredictability of 欧佩克 and 俄国n supplies. The US State Department says it will conclude its review of 梯形XL later this year. Subjecting this project to scrutiny is imperative, but bludgeoning it with impediments 将会 ‘crudely’ unwise.

这篇文章摘录自Oilholic为英国的《基础设施杂志》撰写的文章。尽管作者保留连载权，但版权仍与相关出版物共享。

高拉夫·夏尔马2011 © 高拉夫·夏尔马 and 《基础设施杂志》 2011年。 地图：亚博备用的所有提案& US 原油 Oil Pipelines ©CAPP（点击地图放大）

卡尔加里堡（Fort 卡尔加里）一瞥，1914年！

油鬼 paid a visit to 卡尔加里堡 in between meetings; not far from Downtown 卡尔加里 (towards the east end 的 city). There is no better place to soak in the city’s rich heritage. Founded in 1875, the then North West Mounted Police (NWMP) built this outpost 在 the convergence point of Bow and Elbow Rivers. In all fairness, 说local historians, they laid the foundations 的 modern city of 卡尔加里.

对于世界各地的石油狂人而言，“粗制”钻头非常关键，值得一看。 1914年5月，在卡尔加里以南，首先发现了天然气，然后发现了石油（这在油气勘探中很常见）。首次发现后，要进行下一个有意义的发现，需要等待大约33年的漫长等待。

正如他们所说，其余的都是历史，我要阅读这些东西，这要归功于从 生锈的米勒，奥美雷诺LLP’s managing partner here. He also spared time from his busy schedule to give me some valuable insight on intricacies 的 energy business in this part 的 world.

上面上传的是一些来自Fort的“原始”快照，并有适当的标题。如果你碰巧在城里 –请访问。由于一些奇怪的原因，当地人也挠头，这个美好的地方没有得到任何联邦资助！一位官员说，即使是省级支持也需要申请，这绝不是一件容易的事。当地的能源公司虽然表现不错，但可能会持续很长时间。

Finally, a few 原油 words on the price and differentials between both benchmarks – WTI &布伦特本周末，以布伦特远期月份（5月）期货合约为基准 – the 原油 price is 在 its highest since 八月 2008. With the 可能 contract 在 US$117.36 per barrel, that is an annualised price appreciation of nearly 24% and by my estimation –每周环比升值将近2.4％。布伦特原油和西德州中质油之间的均价也为10美元，并且没有缩小的迹象！

利比亚局势也没有任何解决的迹象。阿尔伯塔省和德克萨斯州– the overwhelming sentiment is that 利比亚 is fast resembling a stand-off and that adds to the upside bias reflected in the 风险溢价. It seems that for the short term, the market will have to make do without 利比亚n 原油.

问题是它是否成为中期供应问题。当然，高昂的价格应该取悦德克萨斯州和艾伯塔省– but "only to a point" notes one. 那 tipping point could hurt both the global economy and the profit margins of those in the business.

© 高拉夫·夏尔马2011. Photos: (Top) 卡尔加里堡, (Clockwise) Signage charting the first DIScovery of 油on the exterior 的 fort, Turner Valley & Leduc 原油s on DISplay, Model of an old Gas station (Click on images to enlarge) ©Gaurav Sharma，2011年3月

再见休斯顿；卡尔加里的第一个想法

Instability or 风险溢价 is not being reflected in the US 中西部 as much as it is in Europe in light 的 利比亚n situation. Following accidents in San Bruno, CA and Michigan, MI –BP之后，与能源业务相关的监管活动很可能会增加管道安全法规’墨西哥湾惨败。实际上，有关管道安全的法案已通过美国参议院通过。

还有一个普遍的推测，即燃煤电厂的退役可能有助于改变已建立的燃气流模式（&价格）。但是，油鬼 感觉虽然这可能会在某个时刻发生，但不会很快以有意义的方式发生。中西部’问题类似于澳大利亚’发电–传统上对煤炭的依赖很难解决。无论如何，天然气的价格很可能会保持低位，因为有充足的供应和稳定的存储水平。

Given that the US overtook 俄国 as the leading gas producer courtesy of shale gas, it is not bravado to assume that it could meaningfully export to Europe or that US-bound LNG could well be diverted to Europe.

进行精炼时，一些本地分析师正在关注“事情只会变得更好”北美炼油厂的逻辑– who they feel are well positioned to demonstrate a recovery (or some form of stabilisation) 的ir margins after six troubled quarters to end-2010. The speed 的 economic recovery will have a big 说in the state of affairs.

离开休斯敦后，石油狂人现在抵达了其姊妹城市亚博备用卡尔加里–从得克萨斯州早晨闷热的30°C到艾伯塔省傍晚的大约-4 C转变。虽然两个城市都不共享气候– they do share the same sense of frustration about the delays associated with the expansion project 的 Keystone pipeline.

看来艾伯塔省和德克萨斯州都非常热衷于扩张– it’只是介于两者之间的每个人都是问题所在。与此管道相关的政治，以及与之类似的其他项目，都非常复杂。但是，这涉及跨境政治，其中有些丑陋，尤其是与“cleanness” of Canadian oil.

顺便说一下“oil sands” not “tar sands” stupid, 说the locals! I’当我加入并完善本地评论员后不久，我就会从卡尔加里得到更多’ viewpoints.

© 高拉夫·夏尔马2011. Photo: 卡尔加里 Tower, 艾伯塔省, 亚博备用 ©Gaurav Sharma，2011年3月