维持2014年布伦特原油价格预测

Since 的 initial flare-up in 伊拉克 little over a fortnight ago, many commentators have been revising or tweaking 的ir Brent price predictions 和 guidance for 的 remainder of 2014. The 油腻的 won't be doing so for 的 moment, having monitored 的 situation, thought hard, gathered intelligence 和 discussed 的 issue 在 length with various observers 在 的 last 欧佩克 summit 和 第21届世界石油大会 本月初。

基于智力和本能，您真正决定 维持他的2014年基准价格假设 made in 一月 , i.e. a Brent price in 的 range of US$90 to $105 和 WTI price range of $85 to $105. Brent's premium to 的 WTI should in all likelihood come down 和 average around $5 barrel. Nonetheless, geopolitical premium might ensure an upper range price for Brent 和 somewhere in 的 modest middle for 的 WTI range come 的 end of 的 year.

Why? For starters, all 的 news coming from 伊拉克 seems to indicate that fears about 的 structural integrity of 的 country have eased. While much needed inward investment into 伊拉克 's oil &天然气行业将受到打击， majority of 的 oil production sites 不受ISIS控制。

实际上，石油部长阿卜杜勒·卡里姆（Abdul Kareem） al-Luaibi最近声称 that 伊拉克 's 原油 exports will increase next month. You can treat that claim with much deserved scepticism, but if anything, production levels aren't materially lower either, according to anecdotal evidence gathered from shipping agents in Southern 伊拉克 .

情况在不断变化, 和 who has 的 upper hand might change on a daily basis, but that 的 伊拉克 i Army has finally responded is reducing market fears. Additionally, 的 need to keep calm is bolstered by some of 的 supply-side positivity. For instance, of 的 two major 原油 oil consumers – US 和 China – 的 former is importing less 和 less 原油 oil from 的 Middle East, 的reby easing pressure by 的 tanker load. Had this not been 的 case, we'd be in $120-plus territory by now, according to more than one City trader.

Some of 的 market revisions to oil price assumptions, while classified as 'revisions' have been pragmatic enough to reflect this. Many commentators have merely gone to 的 upper end of 的ir previous forecasts, something which is entirely understandable.

For instance, 穆迪 's increased 的 Brent 原油 price assumptions it uses for rating purposes to $105 per barrel for 的 remainder of 2014 和 $95 in 2015. In case of 的 WTI, 的 ratings agency increased its price assumptions to $100 per barrel for 的 rest of 2014, 和 to $90 in 2015. Both assumptions are within 的 油腻的's range, although 的y represent $10 per barrel increases from 穆迪 's previous assumptions for both WTI 和 Brent in 2014 和 a $5 increase for 2015.

"The new set of price assumptions reflects 的 agency's sense of firm demand for 原油, even as supplies increase as a response to historically high prices. New violence in 伊拉克 coupled with political turmoil in that general region in mid-2014 have led to supply constraints in 的 Middle East 和 North Africa," 穆迪 's said.

But while 的se constraints exist, 穆迪 's echoed vibes 的 油腻的 caught on 在 欧佩克 沙特阿拉伯可能会通过调整自己的生产水平来影响全球全球价格，但似乎不愿让布伦特原油价格持续上涨至每桶110美元以上。

从定价问题到一些评级问题，还有一些值得注意的注意事项–首先，穆迪已经升级 斯伦贝谢公司 issuer rating 和 的 senior unsecured ratings of its guaranteed subsidiaries to Aa3 from A1.

Pete Speer, Senior Vice-President 在 的 agency, said, "斯伦贝谢公司 industry leading technologies 和 dominant market position coupled with its conservative financial policies support 的 higher Aa3 rating through oilfield services cycles. The company's growing asset base 和 free cash flow generation also compares well to Aa3-rated peers in other industries."

Meanwhile, 惠誉评级 says 的 伊拉克 i situation does not pose an immediate threat to 的 ratings of its rated Western investment-grade oil companies. However, 的 agency reckons if conflict spreads 和 的 market begins to doubt whether 伊拉克 can increase its output in line with forecasts 的re could be a sharp rise in world oil prices because 伊拉克 i oil production expansion is a major contributor to 的 long-term growth in global oil output.

冲突最接近 伊拉克库尔德斯坦, where many Western companies including Afren (rated B+/Stable by Fitch) have production. However, due to ongoing disagreements between Baghdad 和 的 Kurdish regional government, legal hurdles to export of 伊拉克 i 原油 remain, 和 的refore production is a fraction of 的 potential output.

Other companies, such as 卢克 (rated BBB/Negative by Fitch), operate in 的 southeast near Basra, which is far from 的 areas of conflict 和 considered less volatile.

亚历克斯·格里菲斯（Alex Griffiths）, Head of Natural Resources 和 Commodities 在 惠誉评级, said, "Even if 的 conflict were to spread throughout 伊拉克 和 disrupt other regions, 的 direct loss of revenues would not affect major investment-grade rated oil companies because 伊拉克 i output is a very small component of 的ir global production."

"In comparison, disruption of gas production in Egypt 和 oil production in Libya during 的 "Arab Spring" were potential rating drivers for BG Energy Holdings (A-/Stable) 和 Eni (A+/Negative), respectively," he added.

最后，这是 的 油腻的's latest 福布斯 文章 discussing natural gas pricing disparities around 的 world, 和 why abundance won't necessarily mitigate this. That's all for 的 moment folks. Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

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©Gaurav Sharma2014。照片：石油钻探现场©壳牌照片档案

欧佩克 & 的 向下偏见 in 黑金’s value

The 欧佩克 ministers have packed-up 和 left with no real surprises as 的 cartel maintained its daily output 在 每天3000万桶（桶/日）. But in 的 absence of any real surprises from 欧佩克, 的 向下偏见 in 的 direction of leading oil futures benchmarks is getting stronger, given 的 perceived oversupply 和 a flat, if not dicey, macroeconomic climate. The Brent forward month futures contract plummeted to nearly US$100, seeing a near 2.5% dip from last week (点击图放大). Given that 的 trading community had already factored in 的 outcome of 的 163rd 欧佩克 meeting even before it concluded, most appear to be waiting to see whether 的 US Federal Reserve continues with its monetary stimulus programme. Even if it does so, given 的 macroeconomic permutations, it is not worth holding your breath for a ‘crude’ bounceback.

 

Far from cutting production, 的re seem to be murmurs 和 concern in 的 hawkish camps of Iran 和 Venezuela about constantly improving production levels in 伊拉克 . 阿卜杜勒·卡里姆·路易比, 伊拉克 ’s oil minister, confirmed 在 a media scrum in Vienna that 的 country plans to start production 在 two of its largest oilfields within “a matter of weeks.”

 

据al-Luaibi称，Majnoon（即将到来）和Gharraf（将于7月到期）开始生产，随后在West Qurna-2的第三个设施（如果不是更早的话将于12月到期）将使伊拉克的产能提高40万桶/天。国家’s current output is about 3.125 million bpd. The additional capacity would bolster its second position, behind 沙特阿拉伯, in 的 欧佩克 output league table.

 

The 伊拉克 is have a monetary incentive to produce more of 的 原油 stuff. Sadly for 欧佩克, it will come 在 a time 的 cartel does not need it. Instead of adherence, 的re will be further flouting of 的 recently agreed upon quota by some members. 伊拉克 is not yet even included in 的 quota (and may not be until late into 2014).

 

Non-OPEC supply is seeing 的 ranks of 的 usual suspects Russia 和 Norway, joined ever more meaningfully by Brazil, Kazakhstan, Canada 和 not to mention (and how can you not mention) – 的 US, courtesy of its shale supplies 和 more efficient extraction techniques 在 Texan conventional plays. So a 向下偏见 will prevail – for now.

 

In fact, 摩根士丹利 did not even wait for 的 欧佩克 meeting to end before downgrading oil services firms, mostly European ones, based on 的 conjecture that IOCs as well as NOC（其中一些来自OPEC辖区）将向E分配相对较低的资本支出&P.

 

Robert Pulleyn, analyst 在 摩根士丹利, wrote 和 的 油腻的 quotes: “With oil prices 的 key determinant of industry operating cash flow, 和 given our expectation for an increasingly range bound price environment, we expect industry-operating-cash-flow growth to fall from 14% compound annual growth rate (since 2003) to about 3% in 的 future. We expect capex growth to fall to around 5% a year to 2020, compared to 18% compound annual growth rate since 2003.”

 

Of 的 five it downgraded on Thursday – 即 。 Vallourec，SBM Offshore，CGG Veritas，TGS-NOPEC和Subsea 7– only 的 latter avoided a dip in share price following 的 news. However, 摩根士丹利 upgraded John Wood Group, saying it is better positioned to withstand a lower growth outlook for industry spending.

 

至于原油本身的价格，许多分析师没有’不要等待欧佩克与德国商业银行，法国兴业银行以及美国银行美林证券（BoAML）一起对布伦特原油的看空。 BoAML 削减了 由于全球石油需求下降，供应增加和库存增加，布伦特原油价格预期从2013年下半年的每桶111美元升至103美元。该银行预计明年总体疲软将持续，并将其2014年布伦特平均油价预期从每桶112美元下调至105美元。所以你有它’都是维也纳人的！

 

由于它’s time to say 奥夫·维德森, 的 油腻的 leaves you with a view of 的 city’s Irrgarten 和 迷宫 在 的 美泉宫 理由（ 看到正确的 ). Once intended for 的 amusement of Austro-Hungarian royalty 和 的ir guests, this amazing maze is now for 的 public’s amusement.

 

当这个奇妙的地方的游客迷路了  a maze for fun, 欧佩克 ministers going round in circles over a key appointment to 的 post of Secretary General is hardly entertaining. At such a challenging time for it, 的 12-member oil exporters’ club could do with a bit of unity. Yet it cannot even unite behind a single candidate for 的 post –拖了一年的东西– as 竞争对手伊朗和沙特阿拉伯 continue to hold out for 的ir chosen candidate for 的 post. Furthermore, it’沿什叶派和逊尼派路线采取了丑陋的宗派语调。

 

Worryingly, this time around, neither 的 Saudis nor 的 伊拉克 is are in any mood for a compromise as 的 rest of 的 10 members wander around in a maze feeling dazed about shale, internal rivalries, self interest 和 plain old fashioned market anxieties. The 油腻的 maintains it’认为非常规生产的增加正在使之为时尚早 欧佩克 irrelevant，但它的成员正在不知不觉地努力做到这一点！继续阅读，继续阅读‘crude’!

 

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© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2013. Graph: World 原油 oil futures benchmarks to 可能 25, 2013 ©法国兴业银行。照片：Irrgarten&迷宫，美泉宫，维也纳，奥地利© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2013.

页岩& 的 163rd 欧佩克 ministers’ summit

The 油腻的 has exchanged 的 blustery wind 和 rain in London for 的 blustery wind 和 rain in Vienna ahead of 163rd 欧佩克 meeting of ministers here on 可能 31, which half 的 world’的媒体和能源分析社区已经将其称为‘non-event’. The other half are about to! Industry commentators here 和 beyond think 的 12 member group is going to hold its current production quota 在 just above 每天3000万桶（桶/日）.

 

Even before yours truly boarded 的 flight from London Heathrow, a Rotterdam based contact in 的 现货交易 world suggested one needn’t have bothered with 的 market having already factored-in an “as you were” stance by 欧佩克. This is borne out in further anecdotal evidence; 的 futures market on leading benchmarks has been bearish in 的 past 48 hours (not solely down to 欧佩克).

 

Accompanying overtones describing 的 meeting as a 非事件 is 的 sentiment that 欧佩克 is being haunted by North 美国’s shale revolution. As if with perfect timing, 的 US EIA announced on Thursday that 的 country's 原油-oil supplies rose 3 million barrels for 的 week ended 可能 24, to 397.6 million barrels; 的 highest level on record since it began collecting data in 1978.

 

上个星期， 的 International Energy Agency (IEA) added its take on North 美国n production scenarios by suggesting that demand for 欧佩克's oil is expected to plummet as production from 的 US (and Canada) increases by a fifth to 11.9 million bpd by 2018, compared with this year.

 

Additionally, 伊拉克 i production is returning to health. So to put things into context, by 2020 的 IEA expects 伊拉克 's oil output to more than double to 6.1 million bpd 和 were this to happen, 欧佩克’s unofficial production could rise well above 36 million bpd. As a knee-jerk reaction, 的 cartel – according to 的 agency – would have to withhold up to 2.3 million bpd from 的 market by 2015 (with its spare capacity rising well above 7 million bpd).

 

Given all of this, you might be excused for thinking 的 global 原油 market was facing a supply glut 和 everything was gloomy from 欧佩克’s standpoint. Yet, 的 price of oil – Brent or 欧佩克’自己的一篮子原油–仍高于每桶100美元。那’正是OPEC中大多数人希望达到的目标。

 

Arriving a day (or two) ahead of 的 meeting, 7 out of 12 欧佩克 ministers have told various media outlets that a US$100 price was acceptable, where it needs to be 和 “necessary” for investment.  These include senior government officials from Angola, Ecuador, 伊拉克 , Kuwait, 沙特阿拉伯, UAE 和 Venezuela. A US$100 floor price is a uniting 的me it seems 和 most have sounded intent on holding 的 current official production quota!

 

推测是只要维持地板，卡特尔’将减少产量。实际上，欧佩克的主力军和沙特阿拉伯’自5月28日以来一直在维也纳的石油部长纳利（Ali al-Naimi）说，现有条件 代表着面对经济逆风的市场的最佳环境，并且“demand is great.”尽管文士，博客作者，电讯员和分析师集体做出了最大的努力，但伊朗和委内瑞拉都一直在努力削减价格以提振价格，但在过去的24小时中他们都没有发表太多意见。

 

相比之下，欧佩克伊拉克石油部长阿卜杜勒·卡里姆·路易比’第二大生产商说，“There is balance between demand 和 supply, 和 this is reflected on prices, 的y are stable. We don’t want any shock to 的 market, 的 stability of prices is important for 的 global economy.”

 

The 油腻的 thinks 的 cartel will maintain status quo until 的 floor dips to US$80 per barrel, if it does. However, 的 unity will disappear 的 moment 的 oil price dips below US$99 with Venezuela 和 Iran being among 的 first to start clamouring for another production quota cut.

 

This brings us back to 的 hullabaloo about North 美国n shale (and unconventional E&P) versus 欧佩克! The right wing commentators 和 的 US media plus politicians of all stripes –有些人会轻易忘记加拿大’s part in 的 North 美国n energy spectrum – make it sound as if 欧佩克, which still accounts for just over 40% of 的 world’的原油市场，将在一夜之间变得无关紧要。

 

IEA， as 的 油腻的 noted a few weeks ago, described it as nothing short of a paradigm shift in 的 context of 的 oil market, although in not 的se exact words. Then 的re is 的 dilemma of 欧佩克 ministers – who are damned if 的y do 和 damned if 的y don’t. If an 欧佩克 minister acknowledges 的 impact of North 美国n shale, he is described in 的 media as one who is resigned to 的 cartel’s decline. Conversely, if an 欧佩克 minister dismisses it, 的 rebuttal is that he’之所以这样做，是因为他’s scared!

 

他说，这是今天下午的一个例子，当时伊拉克部长阿尔·路易比被要求发表评论，“美国页岩油产量增加– although it has some impact, it's not a significant impact on oil production or exports, 和 as you all might notice 欧佩克 countries are all producing more oil than 的 agreed quota ceiling.”

现在，您可以自己进行有关如何在美国国内报道报价的研究，而不是像Oilholic那样做？它将证明前一段中表达的观点。您的确不是在轻视页岩气革命的国度–但是，如何在中期以上维持目前的增产水平仍是常识。因此，值得对此感到兴奋但又不要太兴奋！此外，在这场辩论中需要一点实用主义– one which the Oilholic saw in a brilliant article in 的 FT by Ajay Makan.

 

In 的 column, Makan notes how within 欧佩克 的re is divide between 的 relatively comfortable Gulf producers (for e.g. 沙特阿拉伯) 和 的 rest (most notably Iran, Venezuela 和 African members). The Saudis have welcomed 的 impact of shale as 的y can afford 的 price falling below US$100 level but some of 的ir peers in 欧佩克 can’t. For some more than 的 others, “估算是不可避免的，尤其是在需求增长放缓的情况下，” writes Makan.

 

Then again, beyond supply scenarios, it is worth asking whose shale bonanza is it anyway? First 和 foremost it is, 和 as 的 油腻的 was discussing with 菲尔·弗林 of Price Futures a couple of months ago, price positive for 美国n consumers, followed by 液化天然气 importing Asian jurisdictions. While Indian 和 Chinese policymakers are hardly jumping for joy 和 will for 的 foreseeable future continue to rely on 欧佩克 members (and Russia) for majority of 的ir 原油 cravings, some in 的 US are already fretting about what US exports would mean for domestic prices!

 

一群 – 美国’s Energy Advantage – backed by several prominent US industrial brands including Alcoa, Huntsman chemicals 和 Dow Chemical, has claimed that "exporting proceeds of shale (to be read 液化天然气 ) carries with it 的 potential threat of damaging jobs 和 investment in 的 US manufacturing sector as rising exports will drive up 的 price of gas to 的 detriment of domestic industries."

 

布恩·皮肯斯，在光彩夺目的riposte中， asked can 的 US do what it 已经 criticising 欧佩克 for since 的 cartel's inception 和 限制出口? The inimitable industry veteran has a point! That's all for 的 moment from Vienna folks! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

 

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© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2013. OPEC 奥地利维也纳总部外部的徽标 © 高拉夫·夏尔马.