2013年7月23日,星期二

WTI集会,自大,对冲基金& 投机者

The 24-7 world of oil futures trading saw Brent and WTI benchmarks draw level this weekend. In fact, 的 latter even traded 在 a premium of more than a few cents for better parts of an hour 在 one point.

After having traded 在 a discount to Brent for three years, with 的 spread reaching an all time high of around US$30 在 one point (in 九月 2011), 的 WTI’s turnaround is noteworthy. However, 的 commentary that has 从某些方面紧随其后!

Some opined, more out of hubris than expertise, that 的 WTI已恢复其地位 as 的 world’s leading benchmark back from Brent. Others cooed that 的 sread’收缩到zilch,是美国’s way of sticking up two fingers to OPEC. 油鬼 has never heard so much [hedge funds and speculative trading inspired] tosh on 的 airwaves and 的 internet for a long time.

Sticking 的 proverbial two fingers up to OPEC from an American standpoint, should involve a lower WTI price, one that is price positive for domestic consumers! Instead we have an inflated three-figure one which mirrors geopolitically sensitive, supply-shock spooked international benchmarks and makes 投机者 uncork champagne.

此外,如果重新获得基准的“世界地位”会带来更高的价格–是不是真的值得吗?人们宁愿使用脱钩的基准来反映后院的情况。美国石油产量的上升,库欣(Cushing)供过于求的消退以及通往中期能源独立道路的粉刷应该导致基准价下跌!然后’当您用两根手指指望国外石油进口时。

所以也许主流评论家在美国应该盘点一下,问是否’s transpired over 的 weekend is really something to shout about and not 让受投机者启发的评论获得关注。

看上周五’在CFTC数据中,很明显,对冲基金一直在押注WTI反弹,但几乎拥有活力。如果将持股转换为实物桶,我们’d大约需要寻找3.5亿桶原油!那’高于在 利比亚危机. You can take a wild guess 的 delivery won’t be in 汉普顿, because a delivery was never 的 objective. 和唐’t worry, 短路 即将开始;我们’价格已降至$ 106-107。

油鬼 asked seven traders this morning whether 的y thought 的 WTI would extend gains –没有人认为会。远期合约在技术上仍然超买,我们知道是谁。 什么时候 yours truly visited 的 CBOT earlier this year 并与资深评论员进行了长时间的聊天 菲尔 Flynn of Price Futures, we both agreed that 的 WTI’s star is on 的 rise.

But for that to happen, followed by a coming together of 的 benchmarks – 的re would need to be a "meeting in 的 middle" according to Flynn. Meaning, 的 relative constraints and fundamentals would drive Brent lower and WTI higher over 的 course of 2013. What has appened of late is nothing of 的 sort.

分析师 can point to four specific developments as being behind 的 move - 即,长角牛管道流量(从西德克萨斯的二叠纪盆地到USGC,绕过Cushing,它将从第二季度的75 kbpd上升到第三季度的全部225 kbpd),二叠纪Express管道阶段 我启动(将再增加90 kbpd的产能,再次绕过库欣),在BP惠廷炼油厂重新启动一个关键的原油装置(7月1日开始运行,主要是WTI原油,将达到410 kbpd),最后因最近加拿大艾伯塔省的洪水而关闭。 

But as 迈克·威特纳, global head of oil research 在 Société Générale, notes: "Everything except 的 Alberta flooding –已经被广泛报道,电报和分析了几个月。此信息绝对没有新内容!”

While it is plausible that such factors get priced in twice, Wittner opined that 的re still appear to be "some large and even relatively new trading positions that are long WTI, possibly CTAs and algorithmic funds."

In a note to clients, he added, that even though fundamentals were not 的 only price drivers, "的y do strongly suggest that WTI should not strengthen any further versus 的 Louisiana Light Sweet (LLS) and Brent."

说到算法,又有一群野兽正在华尔街安家。如果最近的证据有待改进,那些以“高频率”运行的方法。一家所谓的高频交易商(HFT)有很多事情需要解决,更不用说向他和他的公司处以300万美元的罚款。

英国和美国的金融监管机构发现,Panther Energy的Michael Coscia使用了他开发的算法来在2011年9月6日至2011年10月18日这两个国家的贸易交易所中为石油和天然气创建虚假订单。与供应无关,与需求无关,与市场条件无关,与基准的骄傲无关,只是分层和欺骗的简单案例(即通过操纵交易来取消和操纵原油价格)。

您必须以一种不正当的方式将其交给这些HFT家伙。在创建下达,购买或出售订单的机制时,比手动执行要快得多,这是一种巧思。不是操纵市场。不过,Coscia和Panther Energy并没有脱离英国的监管历史。英国金融行为监管局(FCA)判给他903,176美元的罚款,是该湖畔这一方对HFT采取行动的第一次监督。

另外, the CFTC fined Coscia and 黑豹能量 $1.4 million while 的 Chicago Mercantile Exchange fined 的m $800,000. He’s thought to have made $1.4 million back in 2011 from 的 said activity, so it should be a $3 million lesson of monetary proportions for him and others. Or will it? 油鬼 is not betting his house on it!

除了定价问题,消费量超过其生产量的大洲– Asia – is likely to 看到对大型E的大量投资&石油和天然气项目。穆迪认为,但这可能给亚洲石油公司的基本面带来压力。’s.

Simon Wong, senior credit officer 在 的 ratings agency, reckons companies 在 的 lower end of 的 investment-grade rating scale will, continue to face greater pressure from large debt-funded acquisitions and capital spending."

"Moreover, acquisitions of oil and gas assets with long development lead time are subject to greater execution delays or cost overruns, a credit negative. If acquisitions accelerate production output and diversify oil and gas reserves, 的n 的 pressure from large debt-funded acquisitions will reduce," Wong added.

但是,由于大多数亚洲石油公司都是国家石油公司(NOC)- in which governments own large stakes and which often own or manage 的ir strategic resources of 的ir countries – 的ir ratings incorporate a high (often very high) degree of explicit or implied government support.

The need for acquisitions and large capital-spending reflects 的 fact that Asian NOCs are under pressure to invest in order to diversify 的ir reserves geographically. Naming names, Moody’在上周发布的报告中做了一些观察。

该机构指出,三家公司–中国石油天然气集团公司,马来西亚国家石油公司和印度的ONGC–由于手头上有大量现金(或债务水平低),它们具有很高的收购能力。除了宣布的资本支出计划外,这三人还可能在收购上花费超过100亿美元,而不会损害各自的基础信贷质量。

然后再来四家公司–中海油(中国),PTT勘探与生产公司(泰国),韩国国家石油公司(韩国) and Sinopec (China) –根据穆迪(Moody)的说法’s and can spend an additional $2 billion to $10 billion. These 的n are or rather could be 的 big spenders.

最后,如果尼日利亚’原始的混乱使你感兴趣– 的n one would like to flag-up a couple of recent articles that can give you a glimpse into how things go in that part of 的 world. The first one 是一个 report by 经济学家 on 的 murky world encountered by Shell and ENI in 的ir 在 tempts to win an oil block and 的 second one is a 路透社’ report 关于汽油合同的情况‘handled’ in 的 country. If both articles whet your appetite for more, 的n 迈克尔·皮尔’关于尼日利亚的精彩著作 ’s oil industry, its history and complications, would be a good starting point. And that's all for 的 moment folks. Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

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©Gaurav Sharma2013。照片1:美国阿拉斯加的管道 ©Michael S. Quinton /国家地理。图2:美国北达科他州的石油钻探场 © Phil Schermeister /国家地理。 

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