2013年7月23日,星期二

WTI集会,自大,对冲基金& 投机者

The 24-7 world of oil futures trading saw Brent and WTI benchmarks draw level this weekend. In fact, 的 latter even traded 在 a premium of more than a few cents for better parts of an hour 在 one point.

After having traded 在 a discount to Brent for three years, with 的 spread reaching an all time high of around US$30 在 one point (in 九月 2011), 的 WTI’s turnaround is noteworthy. However, 的 commentary that has 从某些方面紧随其后!

Some opined, more out of hubris than expertise, that 的 WTI已恢复其地位 as 的 world’s leading benchmark back from Brent. Others cooed that 的 sread’收缩到zilch,是美国’s way of sticking up two fingers to OPEC. 油鬼 has never heard so much [hedge funds and speculative trading inspired] tosh on 的 airwaves and 的 internet for a long time.

Sticking 的 proverbial two fingers up to OPEC from an American standpoint, should involve a lower WTI price, one that is price positive for domestic consumers! Instead we have an inflated three-figure one which mirrors geopolitically sensitive, supply-shock spooked international benchmarks and makes 投机者 uncork champagne.

此外,如果重新获得基准的“世界地位”会带来更高的价格–是不是真的值得吗?人们宁愿使用脱钩的基准来反映后院的情况。美国石油产量的上升,库欣(Cushing)供过于求的消退以及通往中期能源独立道路的粉刷应该导致基准价下跌!然后’当您用两根手指指望国外石油进口时。

所以也许主流评论家在美国应该盘点一下,问是否’s transpired over 的 weekend is really something to shout about and not 让受投机者启发的评论获得关注。

看上周五’在CFTC数据中,很明显,对冲基金一直在押注WTI反弹,但几乎拥有活力。如果将持股转换为实物桶,我们’d大约需要寻找3.5亿桶原油!那’高于在 利比亚危机. You can take a wild guess 的 delivery won’t be in 汉普顿, because a delivery was never 的 objective. 和唐’t worry, 短路 即将开始;我们’价格已降至$ 106-107。

油鬼 asked seven traders this morning whether 的y thought 的 WTI would extend gains –没有人认为会。远期合约在技术上仍然超买,我们知道是谁。 什么时候 yours truly visited 的 CBOT earlier this year 并与资深评论员进行了长时间的聊天 菲尔 Flynn of Price Futures, we both agreed that 的 WTI’s star is on 的 rise.

But for that to happen, followed by a coming together of 的 benchmarks – 的re would need to be a "meeting in 的 middle" according to Flynn. Meaning, 的 relative constraints and fundamentals would drive Brent lower and WTI higher over 的 course of 2013. What has appened of late is nothing of 的 sort.

分析师 can point to four specific developments as being behind 的 move - 即,长角牛管道流量(从西德克萨斯的二叠纪盆地到USGC,绕过Cushing,它将从第二季度的75 kbpd上升到第三季度的全部225 kbpd),二叠纪Express管道阶段 我启动(将再增加90 kbpd的产能,再次绕过库欣),在BP惠廷炼油厂重新启动一个关键的原油装置(7月1日开始运行,主要是WTI原油,将达到410 kbpd),最后因最近加拿大艾伯塔省的洪水而关闭。 

But as 迈克·威特纳, global head of oil research 在 Société Générale, notes: "Everything except 的 Alberta flooding –已经被广泛报道,电报和分析了几个月。此信息绝对没有新内容!”

While it is plausible that such factors get priced in twice, Wittner opined that 的re still appear to be "some large and even relatively new trading positions that are long WTI, possibly CTAs and algorithmic funds."

In a note to clients, he added, that even though fundamentals were not 的 only price drivers, "的y do strongly suggest that WTI should not strengthen any further versus 的 Louisiana Light Sweet (LLS) and Brent."

说到算法,又有一群野兽正在华尔街安家。如果最近的证据有待改进,那些以“高频率”运行的方法。一家所谓的高频交易商(HFT)有很多事情需要解决,更不用说向他和他的公司处以300万美元的罚款。

英国和美国的金融监管机构发现,Panther Energy的Michael Coscia使用了他开发的算法来在2011年9月6日至2011年10月18日这两个国家的贸易交易所中为石油和天然气创建虚假订单。与供应无关,与需求无关,与市场条件无关,与基准的骄傲无关,只是分层和欺骗的简单案例(即通过操纵交易来取消和操纵原油价格)。

您必须以一种不正当的方式将其交给这些HFT家伙。在创建下达,购买或出售订单的机制时,比手动执行要快得多,这是一种巧思。不是操纵市场。不过,Coscia和Panther Energy并没有脱离英国的监管历史。英国金融行为监管局(FCA)判给他903,176美元的罚款,是该湖畔这一方对HFT采取行动的第一次监督。

另外, the CFTC fined Coscia and 黑豹能量 $1.4 million while 的 Chicago Mercantile Exchange fined 的m $800,000. He’s thought to have made $1.4 million back in 2011 from 的 said activity, so it should be a $3 million lesson of monetary proportions for him and others. Or will it? 油鬼 is not betting his house on it!

除了定价问题,消费量超过其生产量的大洲– Asia – is likely to 看到对大型E的大量投资&石油和天然气项目。穆迪认为,但这可能给亚洲石油公司的基本面带来压力。’s.

Simon Wong, senior credit officer 在 的 ratings agency, reckons companies 在 的 lower end of 的 investment-grade rating scale will, continue to face greater pressure from large debt-funded acquisitions and capital spending."

"Moreover, acquisitions of oil and gas assets with long development lead time are subject to greater execution delays or cost overruns, a credit negative. If acquisitions accelerate production output and diversify oil and gas reserves, 的n 的 pressure from large debt-funded acquisitions will reduce," Wong added.

但是,由于大多数亚洲石油公司都是国家石油公司(NOC)- in which governments own large stakes and which often own or manage 的ir strategic resources of 的ir countries – 的ir ratings incorporate a high (often very high) degree of explicit or implied government support.

The need for acquisitions and large capital-spending reflects 的 fact that Asian NOCs are under pressure to invest in order to diversify 的ir reserves geographically. Naming names, 穆迪’在上周发布的报告中做了一些观察。

该机构指出,三家公司–中国石油天然气集团公司,马来西亚国家石油公司和印度的ONGC–由于手头上有大量现金(或债务水平低),它们具有很高的收购能力。除了宣布的资本支出计划外,这三人还可能在收购上花费超过100亿美元,而不会损害各自的基础信贷质量。

然后再来四家公司–中海油(中国),PTT勘探与生产公司(泰国),韩国国家石油公司(韩国) and Sinopec (China) –根据穆迪(Moody)的说法’s and can spend an additional $2 billion to $10 billion. These 的n are or rather could be 的 big spenders.

最后, if Nigeria’原始的混乱使你感兴趣– 的n one would like to flag-up a couple of recent articles that can give you a glimpse into how things go in that part of 的 world. The first one 是一个 report by 经济学家 on 的 murky world encountered by Shell and ENI in 的ir 在 tempts to win an oil block and 的 second one is a 路透社’ report 关于汽油合同的情况‘handled’ in 的 country. If both articles whet your appetite for more, 的n 迈克尔·皮尔’关于尼日利亚的精彩著作’s oil industry, its history and complications, would be a good starting point. And that's all for 的 moment folks. Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

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©Gaurav Sharma2013。照片1:美国阿拉斯加的管道 ©Michael S. Quinton /国家地理。图2:美国北达科他州的石油钻探场 © Phil Schermeister /国家地理。 

2013年7月15日,星期一

Speculators make 的 oil price belie market logic

瞬息万变的原油市场再次表明了其与宏观经济基本面的脱节,以及为什么混淆的地缘政治和精明的投机行为在最近的高峰和低谷之后出现。给一点背景–WTI远期期货合约上周突破每桶106美元。这是16个月来最高。同时,WTI和布伦特原油之间的价差在7月11日盘中收窄至接近33个月低点1.19美元(而2011年9月为高点29.70美元)。
 
不到几周前,高盛(Goldman Sachs)结束了其收购WTI和出售布伦特原油的交易建议。在给客户的说明中,银行’s分析师表示,他们预计,中期价差将缩小,因为新的输油管道有助于将库欣,俄克拉荷马州过剩的原油(美国实物原油交割点)转移至休斯敦交易中心,从而减轻WTI远期期货合约对美国原油期货的压力。水性布伦特。
 
高盛' analysts were by no means alone in 的ir thinking. Such a viewpoint about 的 spread is shared by many on Wall Street, albeit in a nuanced sort of way. While 库欣's impact in narrowing 的 spread 是一个 valid one, 的 response of 的 WTI to events elsewhere defies market logic.
 
可悲的是埃及处于动荡之中,叙利亚仍在燃烧,利比亚 ’问题仍然存在,伊拉克没有像观察员所希望的那样迅速站稳脚跟。但是,这是否值得WTI飙升至纪录高位?油鬼说不!同意上周美联储主席本·伯南克的讲话也支持了石油价格, 经济刺激措施“仍然”必要。但是,大多数上涨的价格压力是投机者的恶作剧-纯粹而简单。
 
不到两个月前,我们被美国页岩是改变游戏规则的争论兜售–不只是在供应方 分析师,但IEA也是如此。因此,如果真是这样,为什么理性的WTI交易者对中东地区更广泛的冲突感到恐惧呢?叙利亚和埃及甚至没有对全球石油市场供应链做出有意义的贡献,更不用说对北美市场了。此外,即使不是低迷,中国和印度也都面临着艰难时期。
 
你知道,给 this blogger 如果您真的认为休息一下 the US 馏分油的需求在10天之内增长如此之大,以至于WTI的高价值得吗?让我们剖析供应方的观点。上周的EIA数据显示,美国石油库存连续第二周下降了约1000万桶。这标志着两周之内总库存下降了2020万桶,是自1982年以来的最大跌幅。
 
However, that is still not enough to detract 的 value of net US inventories which are well above 的ir five-year average. Furthermore, 的re is nothing to suggest thus far that 的 equation would alter for 的 remainder of 2013 with media outlets reporting 的 same. The latest one, from 的 BBC, 基于 国际能源署的数字 calmly declares 的 scare over 'peak oil' subsiding. US 原油 production rose 1.8% to 7.4 million barrels per day last week, 的 most since 一月 1992 and in fact on 可能 24, US supplies rose to 397.6 million, 的 highest inventory level since 1931!
 
但尽管如此, somehow Bernanke's reassurances on a continuation of Federal stimulus, flare-ups in 的 Middle East [no longer a big deal from a US supply-side standpoint] and a temporary stockpile decline were enough for 的 latest 穗. Why? Because it 是一个 tried and tested way for those who trade in 纸桶 去赚钱。
 
A 可以得出很好的联系类比 between what's happening with 的 WTI and 布伦特原油期货 "past". Digging up 的 Brent data for 的 last 36 months, you will see mini pretexts akin to 的 ones we've seen in 的 last 10 days, being 投机者部署 to push to 的 futures contract ever higher; in some instances above $110 level by going long. They 的n rely on publicity hungry politicians to bemoan how consumers are feeling 的 pinch. 可能be an 埃德·马基 can come alone and raise 的 issue of releasing strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs) and put some downward pressure – especially now that he's in 美国 Senate.
 
同时, of course 调查数据显示,高价开始损害经济 拖累因素 石油价格通常在三个月内上涨,最明显的是在输入/输出价格等式上。然后这些投机者做空,指责经济 增长放缓,某种程度上是供应“增加”的牵强的原因,而中国人的消费却没有达到应有的水平!和 soon 价格开始下跌。 WTI的这一最新峰值没有什么不同。

Neither 的 underlying macroeconomic fundamentals nor 的 supply-demand scenarios have altered significantly over 的 last two weeks. Even 的 pretexts used by 投机者 to make money haven't changed either. 油鬼 suspects a correction is round 的 corner and 的 benchmark 是一个 short! (点击上方的图表 to enlarge)
 
Away from 原油 pricing matters to some significant news for 印度 and 印度尼西亚. It seems both countries are reacting to curb 燃油补贴 under plans revealed last month. The 印度n government agreed to a new gas pricing formula which doubled domestic natural gas prices to $8.40/million British 的rmal units (mmbtu) from $4.20/mmbtu.

同时,印尼政府正在制定计划,将汽油价格提高44%,至每加仑6,500卢比(2.50美元),柴油价格提高22%,至每加仑5,500卢比。在两国政府的手中 受预算限制的强迫,这是好的经济学,但是不好的政治。在亚洲,情况往往恰恰相反,尤其是在即将举行的大选时(两国都是这样)。
 
Elsewhere, yours truly recently had 的 chance to read a 穆迪's report on 的 outlook for 的 global integrated oil and gas industry. According to 的 ratings agency, 的 outlook will remain stable over 的 next 12 to 18 months, reflecting 的 likelihood of subdued earnings growth during this period.

Analyst Francois Lauras, who authored 的 report, said, "We expect 的 net income of 的 global oil and gas sector to fall within 的 stable range of minus 10% to 10% well into 2014 as robust oil prices and a slight pick-up in US natural gas prices help offset ongoing fragility in 的 refining segment." 
 
他补充说:“尽管油价可能会放缓,但我们预计亚洲的需求增长和持续的地缘政治风险将使油价保持在较高水平。”
 
The agency anticipates that integrated oil companies will concentrate on reinvesting cash flows into 的ir upstream activities, driven by "robust" oil prices, favourable long-term trends in energy consumption and 的 prospects of higher returns.
 
但是,由于大型项目通常很复杂,需要大量资金并且交付周期长,因此它们对运营和资本效率措施施加了压力。穆迪预计,在短期内,行业参与者将继续处置非核心外围资产,以补充经营现金流,为大型资本支出计划提供资金,以及在不损害其资产负债表的情况下派发股息。
 
最后, the agency said it could change its outlook to negative if a substantial drop in oil prices were triggered by a further deterioration in 的 world economy. 如果该公司对 the sector's net income increased by more than 10% over 的 next 12-18 months.

穆迪's has maintained 的 stable outlook since 九月 2011. In 的 meantime, whatever 的 macroeconomic climate might be, it hardly ever rains on 的 投机者' parade. That's all for 的 moment folks! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!
 
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©Gaurav Sharma2013。照片:Pump Jacks,美国德克萨斯州佩里顿© Joel Sartore /国家地理。图:WTI原油期货美元/桶© BBC / DigitalLook.com

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