2013年5月30日,星期四

页岩& 的 163rd 欧佩克 ministers’ summit

The 油腻的 has exchanged 的 blustery wind and rain in London for 的 blustery wind and rain in Vienna ahead of 163rd 欧佩克 meeting of ministers here on 可能 31, which half 的 world’的媒体和能源分析社区已经将其称为‘non-event’. The other half are about to! Industry commentators here and beyond think 的 12 member group is going to hold its current production quota 在 just above 30 million barrels per day (bpd).
 
Even before yours truly boarded 的 flight from London Heathrow, a Rotterdam based contact in 的 现货交易 world suggested one needn’t have bothered with 的 market having already factored-in an “as you were” stance by 欧佩克. This is borne out in further anecdotal evidence; 的 futures market on leading benchmarks has been bearish in 的 past 48 hours (not solely down to 欧佩克).
 
Accompanying overtones describing 的 meeting as a 非事件 is 的 sentiment that 欧佩克 is being haunted by North 美国’s shale revolution. As if with perfect timing, 的 US EIA announced on Thursday that 的 country's 原油-oil supplies rose 3 million barrels for 的 week ended 可能 24, to 397.6 million barrels; 的 highest level on record since it began collecting data in 1978.
 
上个星期, 的 International Energy Agency (IEA) added its take on North 美国n production scenarios by suggesting that demand for 欧佩克's oil is expected to plummet as production from 的 US (and Canada) increases by a fifth to 11.9 million bpd by 2018, compared with this year.
 
Additionally, Iraqi production is returning to health. So to put things into context, by 2020 的 IEA expects Iraq's oil output to more than double to 6.1 million bpd and were this to happen, 欧佩克’s unofficial production could rise well above 36 million bpd. As a knee-jerk reaction, 的 cartel – according to 的 agency – would have to withhold up to 2.3 million bpd from 的 market by 2015 (with its spare capacity rising well above 7 million bpd).
 
Given all of this, you might be excused for thinking 的 global 原油 market was facing a supply glut and everything was gloomy from 欧佩克’s standpoint. Yet, 的 price of oil – Brent or 欧佩克’自己的一篮子原油–仍高于每桶100美元。那’正是OPEC中大多数人希望达到的目标。
 
Arriving a day (or two) ahead of 的 meeting, 7 out of 12 欧佩克 ministers have told various media outlets that a US$100 price was acceptable, where it needs to be and “necessary” for investment.  These include senior government officials from Angola, Ecuador, Iraq, Kuwait, 沙特阿拉伯 , UAE and Venezuela. A US$100 floor price is a uniting 的me it seems and most have sounded intent on holding 的 current official production quota!
 
推测是只要维持地板,卡特尔’将减少产量。实际上,欧佩克的主力军和沙特阿拉伯’自5月28日以来一直在维也纳的石油部长纳利(Ali al-Naimi)说,现有条件 代表着面对经济逆风的市场的最佳环境,并且“demand is great.”尽管文士,博客作者,电讯员和分析师集体做出了最大的努力,但伊朗和委内瑞拉都一直在努力削减价格以提振价格,但在过去的24小时中他们都没有发表太多意见。
 
相比之下,欧佩克伊拉克石油部长阿卜杜勒·卡里姆·路易比’第二大生产商说,“There is balance between demand and supply, and this is reflected on prices, 的y are stable. We don’t want any shock to 的 market, 的 stability of prices is important for 的 global economy.”
 
The 油腻的 thinks 的 cartel will maintain status quo until 的 floor dips to US$80 per barrel, if it does. However, 的 unity will disappear 的 moment 的 oil price dips below US$99 with Venezuela and Iran being among 的 first to start clamouring for another production quota cut.
 
This brings us back to 的 hullabaloo about North 美国n shale (and unconventional E&P) versus 欧佩克! The right wing commentators and 的 US media plus politicians of all stripes –有些人会轻易忘记加拿大’s part in 的 North 美国n energy spectrum – make it sound as if 欧佩克, which still accounts for just over 40% of 的 world’的原油市场,将在一夜之间变得无关紧要。
 
IEA, as 的 油腻的 noted a few weeks ago, described it as nothing short of a paradigm shift in 的 context of 的 oil market, although in not 的se exact words. Then 的re is 的 dilemma of 欧佩克 ministers – who are damned if 的y do and damned if 的y don’t. If an 欧佩克 minister acknowledges 的 impact of North 美国n shale, he is described in 的 media as one who is resigned to 的 cartel’s decline. Conversely, if an 欧佩克 minister dismisses it, 的 rebuttal is that he’之所以这样做,是因为他’s scared!
 
他说,这是今天下午的一个例子,当时伊拉克部长阿尔·路易比被要求发表评论,“美国页岩油产量增加– although it has some impact, it's not a significant impact on oil production or exports, and as you all might notice 欧佩克 countries are all producing more oil than 的 agreed quota ceiling.”

现在,您可以自己进行有关如何在美国国内报道报价的研究,而不是像Oilholic那样做?它将证明前一段中表达的观点。您的确不是在轻视页岩气革命的国度–但是,如何在中期以上维持目前的增产水平仍是常识。因此,值得对此感到兴奋但又不要太兴奋!此外,在这场辩论中需要一点实用主义– one which the Oilholic saw in a brilliant article in 的 FT by Ajay Makan .
 
In 的 column, Makan notes how within 欧佩克 的re is divide between 的 relatively comfortable Gulf producers (for e.g. 沙特阿拉伯 ) and 的 rest (most notably Iran, Venezuela and African members). The Saudis have welcomed 的 impact of shale as 的y can afford 的 price falling below US$100 level but some of 的ir peers in 欧佩克 can’t. For some more than 的 others, “估算是不可避免的,尤其是在需求增长放缓的情况下,” writes Makan.
 
Then again, beyond supply scenarios, it is worth asking whose shale bonanza is it anyway? First and foremost it is, and as 的 油腻的 was discussing with 菲尔·弗林 of Price Futures a couple of months ago, price positive for 美国n consumers, followed by 液化天然气 importing Asian jurisdictions. While Indian and Chinese policymakers are hardly jumping for joy and will for 的 foreseeable future continue to rely on 欧佩克 members (and Russia) for majority of 的ir 原油 cravings, some in 的 US are already fretting about what US exports would mean for domestic prices!
 
一群 – 美国’s Energy Advantage – backed by several prominent US industrial brands including Alcoa, Huntsman chemicals and Dow Chemical, has claimed that "exporting proceeds of shale (to be read 液化天然气 ) carries with it 的 potential threat of damaging jobs and investment in 的 US manufacturing sector as rising exports will drive up 的 price of gas to 的 detriment of domestic industries."
 
布恩·皮肯斯 ,在光彩夺目的riposte中, asked can 的 US do what it 已经 criticising 欧佩克 for since 的 cartel's inception and 限制出口 ? The inimitable industry veteran has a point! That's all for 的 moment from Vienna folks! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!
 
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© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2013. OPEC 奥地利维也纳总部外部的徽标 © 高拉夫·夏尔马 .

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