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There was only story in London town last week, when late in 的 day on 可能 14, 欧盟委员会 (EC) regulators swooped down on 的 offices of major oil companies having R&M operations in 的 英国, investigating fuel 价格固定 allegations. While 的 EC did not name names, 血压, 贝壳 and Statoil confirmed 的ir offices had been among those ‘visited’ by 的 officials.
More details emerged overnight, as pricing information provider 普氏 admitted it was also paid a visit. The EC said 的 investigation relates to 的 pricing of oil, refined products and biofuels. As part of its probe, it will be examining whether 的 companies may have prevented others from participating in 的 pricing process in order to "distort" published prices.
消息人士称,这一过程无非是
普氏’收市价(MOC)价格评估机制. "Any such behaviour, if established, may amount to violations of European antitrust rules that prohibit cartels and restrictive business practices and abuses of a dominant market position," 的 EC said, but clarified in 的 same breath that 的 raids itself did not imply any guilt on part of 的 companies.
The probe extends to alleged trading malpractices dating back almost over 10 years. All oil companies concerned, 在 least 的 ones who admitted to have been 参观过 by EC regulators, said 的y were cooperating with 的 authorities. 普氏 issued a similar statement reiterating its cooperation.
So what does it mean? For starters, 的 line of inquiry is nothing new. Following a very vocal campaign led by
英国国会议员罗伯特·哈夫顿, 的 英国's Office of Fair Trading (OFT) investigated 的 issue of 价格固定 and
exonerated 的 oil companies in 一月. Not satisfied, Halfon kept up 的 pressure and here we are.
"I have been raising 的 issue of alleged fuel 价格固定 time and again in 的 House of Commons. With 的 EC raids, I'd say 的 OFT 已经 caught cold and simply needs to look 在 this again. The issue has cross-party support in 的 英国," he said.
In wake of 的 raids, 的 OFT merely said that it stood by its original investigation and was
assisting 的 EC in its investigations。问题是,如果’s a big if, any wrongdoing is established, 的n what would 的 penalties be like and how would 的y be enforced? Parallels could be drawn between 的 Libor rate rigging scandal and 的 fines that followed imposed by US, 英国 and European authorities. The largest fine (to date) 已经 CHF1.4 billion (US$1.44 billion) awarded against UBS.
So assuming that wrongdoing is established, and fines are of a similar nature, Fitch Ratings reckons 的 companies involved could cope. "These producers typically have between US$10 billion and US$20 billion of cash on 的ir balance sheets. Significantly bigger fines would still be manageable, as shown by 血压's ability to cope with 的 cost of 的 Macondo oil spill, but would be more likely to have an impact on ratings," said Jeffrey Woodruff, Senior Director (Corporates) 在 Fitch Ratings.
Other than fines, if an oil company is found to have distorted prices, it could face longer-term risks from damage to its reputation. While 的se risks are less easy to predict and would depend on 的 extent of any wrongdoing, scope does exist for commercial damage, even for sectors with polarising positions in 的 public mind, according to Fitch. Given we are in 的 'early days' phase, let's see what happens or rather doesn't.
While 的 EC was busy raiding oil companies, 的 国际能源署 was telling 的 world how 的 US 页岩 bonanza was sending ripples through 的 oil industry. In its
中期石油市场报告(MTOMR),它指出:
"的 effects of continued growth in North 美国n supply –以美国轻质致密油(LTO)和加拿大油砂为首– will cascade through 的 global oil market."
While geopolitical risks persist, according to 的 国际能源署, market fundamentals were indicative of a more comfortable global oil supply/demand scenario over 的 next five years 在 的 very least. The MTOMR projected North 美国n supply to grow by 3.9 million barrels per day (mbpd) from 2012 to 2018, or nearly two-thirds of total forecast non-OPEC supply growth of 6 mbpd.
预计全球液体生产能力将增长8.4 mbpd–大大快于需求–预计将增加6.9 mbpd。在中国和中东的带动下,全球炼油产能将实现更陡峭的增长,激增9.5 Mbps。据IEA称,在抵消了2012年创纪录的供应中断之后,北美供应有望继续弥补其他地区的下降和延迟,但前提是必须建立必要的基础设施。否则,瓶颈可能会压低价格并减缓发展。
Meanwhile, 欧佩克 oil will remain a key part of 的 oil mix but its 生产 capacity growth will be adversely affected by "growing insecurity in North and Sub-Saharan Africa", 的 agency said. 欧佩克 capacity is expected to gain 1.75 mbpd to 36.75 mbpd, about 750,000 bpd less than forecast in 的 2012 MTOMR. 伊拉克, 沙特阿拉伯 and 的 UAE will lead 的 growth, but 欧佩克's lower-than-expected aggregate additions to global capacity will boost 的 relative share of North 美国, 的 agency said.
Away from supply-demand scenarios and on to pricing, Morgan Stanley forecasts 布伦特's premium to 的 WTI narrow further while progress continues to be made in clearing a supply glut 在 的 US benchamark’s delivery point of Cushing, Oklahoma, over 的 coming months. It was
above 的 US$8 mark when 的 油腻的 last checked, well down on 的 $20 it averaged for much of 2012.However, analysts 在 的 investment bank do 在tach a caveat.
Have you heard of 的 休斯顿过剩? There is no disguising 的 fact that Houston 已经 的 recipient of 的 vast majority of 的 "new" inland 原油 oil supplies in 的 Gulf Coast [no prizes for guessing where that is coming from]. The state's extraction processes have become ever more efficient accompanied by its own oil boom to complement 的 existing E&P activity.
Lest we forget, North Dakota has overtaken every other US oil producing state in terms of its oil 输出, but not 的 great state of Texas. Yet, infrastructural limitations persist when it comes to dispatching 的 原油 eastwards from Texas to 的 refineries in Louisiana.
因此,摩根士丹利分析师指出: "A growing glut of 原油 in Houston suggests WTI-Brent is near a trough and should widen again [at least marginally] later this year. Houston lacks a benchmark, but physical traders indicate that Houston is already pricing about $4 per barrel under 布伦特, given physical limitations in moving 原油 out of 的 area."
The 油腻的 can confirm that anecdotal evidence does seem to indicate this is 的 case. So it would be fair to say that Morgan Staley is bang-on in its assessment that 的 "Houston regional pricing" would only erode further as more 原油 reaches 的 area, adding that any move in 布伦特-WTI towards $6-7 a barrel [from 的 current $8-plus] should prove unsustainable.
Capacity to bring incremental 原油 to St. James refineries in Louisiana is limited, so 的 Louisiana Light Sweet (LLS) will continue to trade well above Houston pricing; a trend that is likely to continue even after 的 reversal of 的 Houston-Houma pipeline – 的 main 原油 artery between 的 Houston physical market and St. James.
在closing note, it seems 的 彭博窥探门 affair escalated last week with 的 英格兰银行 joining 的 chorus of indignation. It all began earlier this month when news emerged of Bloomberg's practice of giving its reporters "limited" access to some data considered proprietary, including when a customer looked into broad categories such as equities or bonds.
独家新闻– first reported by 的
金融时报 – led to a full apology by Matthew Winkler, Editor-in-chief of Bloomberg News, for allowing journalists "limited" access to sensitive data about how clients used its terminals, saying it was "inexcusable". However, Winkler insisted that important and confidential customer data had been protected. Problem is, 的y aren't just any customers – they include 的 leading central banks in 的 经合组织.
The US Federal Reserve, 的 European Central Bank and 的 Bank of Japan have all said 的y were examining 的 use of data by Bloomberg. However, 的 language used by 的 英格兰银行 is 的 sternest so far. The British central bank described 的 events 在 Bloomberg as "reprehensible."
A spokesperson said, "The protection of confidential information is vital here 在 的 bank. What seems to have happened 在 Bloomberg is reprehensible. Bank officials are in close contact with Bloomberg…我们还将就此事与其他中央银行联络。”
In 的se past few days 的re have been signs that 彭博窥探门 随着巴西变得越来越大’s central bank and 的 Hong Kong Monetary Authority (the Chinese territory's de facto central bank) have also expressed 的ir indignation. Having been a 英格兰银行 and 英国 Office for National Statistics (ONS) correspondent, yours truly can personally testify how seriously central banks take issue with such things and so 的y should.
Yet, in describing Bloomberg's practice as "reprehensible", 的 英格兰银行 has indicated how serious it thinks 的 breach of confidence was and how miffed it is. The 英国 central bank has since received assurances from Bloomberg that 的re would be no repeat of 的 issue! You bet! That's all for 的 moment folks! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!
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©Gaurav Sharma2013。照片:废弃的加油站©托德·吉普斯坦(Todd Gipstein)/国家地理