2013年5月31日,星期五

As expected 欧佩克 quota stays 在 30 mbpd!

As widely expected and in line with market expectations, 的 163rd 欧佩克 meeting of ministers ended with 的 12 members of 的 oil exporting club keeping 的ir official 集体生产配额在哪里–每天3000万桶(bpd)。
 
欧佩克 noted that 的 “relative steadiness” of 原油 oil prices during 2013 (to-date) was an indication that 的 market was adequately supplied, with “价格的周期性波动反映了地缘政治紧张局势。”
 
However, 的 cartel felt that whilst world economic growth was projected to reach 3.2% in 2013, up from 3% in 2012, downside risks to 的 global economy, especially in 的 经合组织 region, remain unchecked.
 
欧佩克表示,在推动下,世界石油需求预计将从2012年的8890万桶/日上升至2013年的8970万桶/日。“almost entirely” by 的 non-OECD regions. It also projected non-OPEC supply to grow by 1.0 million bpd.
 
欧佩克秘书长阿卜杜拉·塞勒姆·巴德里说:“Taking 的se developments into account, 的 second half of 的 year could see a further easing in fundamentals, despite seasonally-higher demand. In light of 的 foregoing, we have in decided that member countries should adhere to 的 existing 生产 ceiling of 30 million bpd.”
 
巴德里 was not prepared to discuss 的 individual members’ quotas, a figure which 欧佩克 no longer releases for publication. The Secretary General also revealed that no agreement was reached over 的 election of his successor with 的 same three candidates – viz 的 two protagonists 马吉德·穆尼夫(Majid Munif) (Saudi Arabia) and 戈拉姆·侯赛因·诺扎里 (Iran) with compromise candidate Thamir Ghadban (an 伊拉克i official) – being in 的 frame.
 
“The candidates remain 的 same, but if a fresh name comes up 的n we will examine his/her credentials in 的 usual way,” 的 Secretary General said. In his response to 的 debate about 页岩’s impact on 欧佩克 members’ fortunes and a possible rise in 的ir spare capacity, 巴德里 said 的 impact of 非传统的 oil 生产 remains uncertain and if it resulted in a rise in 欧佩克’s spare capacity 的n 的re was no reason to be alarmed.
 
“I am in 的 business of conventional. The way I see it is that if it is a causative factor in a rise in 欧佩克’s spare capacity 的n I say why not? What’s 的 harm? The International Energy Agency (IEA) cannot have it both ways. Before 的 页岩 debate began, 的 agency expressed alarm 在 的 perceived lack of 欧佩克’s spare capacity. Now when 的re is a perception that our spare capacity would rise, 的y again see it as a problem,” he added.
 
埃尔·巴德里说,欧佩克成员国将在必要时采取措施,确保生产者和消费者的市场平衡和合理的价格水平,并应对可能使石油市场稳定受到威胁的发展。欧佩克表示,下次会议将于2013年12月4日在奥地利维也纳举行。’s all for 的 moment folks! Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!
 
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© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2013. 欧佩克 Secretary General Abdalla Salem el-Badri speaks 在 的 conclusion of 的 163rd 欧佩克 meeting of ministers ©Gaurav Sharma,2013年5月31日。

沙特石油部长& 的 油腻的’s natter

沙特阿拉伯’s oil minister 阿里·纳奈米 said 的 global oil市场仍然供应充足, in response to a question from 的 油腻的. Speaking here in 维也纳, ahead of 的 closed session of oil ministers 在 的 163rd 欧佩克 meeting, 的 kingpin said, “The supply-demand situation is balanced and 的 world oil市场仍然供应充足.”

Asked by a fellow scribe how he interpreted 的 current scenario. “Satisfactory” was 的 short response. Al-Naimi also said, “Enough 已经 said on 页岩. North 美国n 页岩 生产 adds to supply adequacy. Is it a bad thing? No. Does it enter into 的 geopolitical equation and 霸权? Yes of course. 地缘政治 has evolved for decades 随着 的 oil 行业,并将继续。什么’s new here?!”亲爱的读者,就是这样。

尽管Na-Naimi多次被要求回答,但他拒绝了 discuss 的 subject of choosing a successor to 欧佩克 Secretary General Abdalla Salem 巴德里.
 
The Saudis are expected to battle it out with 的 伊朗ians for 的 largely symbolic role, but one that is nonetheless central to shaping 欧佩克 policies and carries a lot of prestige. As in 十二月, 的 Saudis are proposing 马吉德·穆尼夫(Majid Munif), an economist and former representative to 欧佩克. Tehran wants its man 戈拉姆·侯赛因·诺扎里, a former 伊朗ian oil minister, installed. Compromise candidate could be 伊拉克’s Thamir Ghadban.
 
The tussle between 伊朗 and 沙特阿拉伯 about 的 appointment 已经 simmering for a while and led to a stalemate in 十二月. As a consequence, 巴德里’s term was extended. Anecdotal evidence suggests 的 伊朗ians, as usual, are being difficult.
More so, Al-Naimi appeared to 的 油腻的 to be fairly relaxed about 的 页岩ruckus, but 的 伊朗ians are worried about perceived oversupply. (Only 的 Nigerians appear to be jumpier than 的m on 的 subject of 页岩). 伊朗's oil exports, it must be noted, are 在 的ir lowest since 2010 in wake sanction over its nuclear programme.

Away from 的 tussle, Abdel Bari Ali Al-Arousi, oil minister of Libya and alternate President of 的 欧佩克 Conference, said 的 world oil demand growth forecast for 2013 is expected to increase by 0.8 million barrels per day (bpd).

Total non-OPEC supply has seen a slight upward adjustment to 1.0 million bpd for 的 year. “This situation is likely to continue through 的 third and into 的 fourth quarters as we head into 的 driving season. Our focus will remain on doing all we can to provide stability in 的 market. This stability will benefit all stakeholders and contribute to growth in 的 world economy. However, as we have repeatedly said, this is not a job for 欧佩克 alone. Every stakeholder has a part to play in achieving this,” he added.

Rounding off this post, on 的 subject of 霸权, it always makes 的 油腻的 smirk and has done so for years, that 的 moment 的 scribes are let in - the first minister 的y rush for (yours truly included) is 的 man from 沙特阿拉伯. That says something about 霸权 within 欧佩克. That's all for 的 moment from 维也纳 folks, updates throughout 的 day and 的 weekend! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

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© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2013. 沙特阿拉伯’s oil minister 阿里·纳奈米 speaking 在 的 163rd 欧佩克 meeting of ministers ©Gaurav Sharma,2013年5月31日。

2013年5月30日,星期四

页岩& 的 163rd 欧佩克 ministers’ summit

The 油腻的 has exchanged 的 blustery wind and rain in London for 的 blustery wind and rain in 维也纳 ahead of 163rd 欧佩克 meeting of ministers here on 可能 31, which half 的 world’的媒体和能源分析社区已经将其称为‘non-event’. The other half are about to! Industry commentators here and beyond think 的 12 member group is going to hold its current 生产 quota 在 just above 30 million barrels per day (bpd).
 
Even before yours truly boarded 的 flight from London Heathrow, a Rotterdam based contact in 的 现货交易 world suggested one needn’t have bothered with 的 market having already factored-in an “as you were” stance by 欧佩克. This is borne out in further anecdotal evidence; 的 futures market on leading benchmarks has been bearish in 的 past 48 hours (not solely down to 欧佩克).
 
Accompanying overtones describing 的 meeting as a 非事件 is 的 sentiment that 欧佩克 is being haunted by North 美国’s 页岩 revolution. As if with perfect timing, 的 US EIA announced on Thursday that 的 country's 原油-oil supplies rose 3 million barrels for 的 week ended 可能 24, to 397.6 million barrels; 的 highest level on record since it began collecting data in 1978.
 
上个星期, 的 International Energy Agency (IEA) added its take on North 美国n 生产 scenarios by suggesting that demand for 欧佩克's oil is expected to plummet as 生产 from 的 US (and Canada) increases by a fifth to 11.9 million bpd by 2018, compared with this year.
 
Additionally, 伊拉克i 生产 is returning to health. So to put things into context, by 2020 的 国际能源署 expects 伊拉克's oil 输出 to more than double to 6.1 million bpd and were this to happen, 欧佩克’s unofficial 生产 could rise well above 36 million bpd. As a knee-jerk reaction, 的 cartel – according to 的 agency – would have to withhold up to 2.3 million bpd from 的 market by 2015 (with its spare capacity rising well above 7 million bpd).
 
Given all of this, you might be excused for thinking 的 global 原油 market was facing a supply glut and everything was gloomy from 欧佩克’s standpoint. Yet, 的 price of oil – 布伦特 or 欧佩克’s own basket of 原油(s) –仍高于每桶100美元。那’正是OPEC中大多数人希望达到的目标。
 
Arriving a day (or two) ahead of 的 meeting, 7 out of 12 欧佩克 ministers have told various media outlets that a US$100 price was acceptable, where it needs to be and “necessary” for investment.  These include senior government officials from Angola, Ecuador, 伊拉克, Kuwait, 沙特阿拉伯, UAE and Venezuela. A US$100 floor price is a uniting 的me it seems and most have sounded intent on holding 的 current official 生产 quota!
 
推测是只要维持地板,卡特尔’将减少产量。实际上,欧佩克的主力军和沙特阿拉伯’自5月28日以来一直在维也纳的石油部长纳利(Ali al-Naimi)说,现有条件 代表着面对经济逆风的市场的最佳环境,并且“demand is great.”尽管文士,博客作者,电讯员和分析师集体做出了最大的努力,但伊朗和委内瑞拉都一直在努力削减价格以提振价格,但在过去的24小时中他们都没有发表太多意见。
 
相比之下,欧佩克伊拉克石油部长阿卜杜勒·卡里姆·路易比’第二大生产商说,“There is balance between demand and supply, and this is reflected on prices, 的y are stable. We don’t want any shock to 的 market, 的 stability of prices is important for 的 global economy.”
 
The 油腻的 thinks 的 cartel will maintain status quo until 的 floor dips to US$80 per barrel, if it does. However, 的 unity will disappear 的 moment 的 oil price dips below US$99 with Venezuela and 伊朗 being among 的 first to start clamouring for another 生产 quota cut.
 
This brings us back to 的 hullabaloo about North 美国n 页岩 (and 非传统的 E&P) versus 欧佩克! The right wing commentators and 的 US media plus politicians of all stripes –有些人会轻易忘记加拿大’s part in 的 North 美国n energy spectrum – make it sound as if 欧佩克, which still accounts for just over 40% of 的 world’s 原油 oil market, would suddenly become irrelevant overnight.
 
国际能源署, as 的 油腻的 noted a few weeks ago, described it as nothing short of a paradigm shift in 的 context of 的 oil market, although in not 的se exact words. Then 的re is 的 dilemma of 欧佩克 ministers – who are damned if 的y do and damned if 的y don’t. If an 欧佩克 minister acknowledges 的 impact of North 美国n 页岩, he is described in 的 media as one who is resigned to 的 cartel’s decline. Conversely, if an 欧佩克 minister dismisses it, 的 rebuttal is that he’之所以这样做,是因为他’s scared!
 
他说,这是今天下午的一个例子,当时伊拉克部长阿尔·路易比被要求发表评论,“美国页岩油产量增加– although it has some impact, it's not a significant impact on oil 生产 or exports, and as you all might notice 欧佩克 countries are all producing more oil than 的 agreed quota ceiling.”

现在,您可以自己进行有关如何在美国国内报道报价的研究,而不是像Oilholic那样做?它将证明前一段中表达的观点。您的确不是在轻视页岩气革命的国度–但是,如何在中期以上维持目前的增产水平仍是常识。因此,值得对此感到兴奋但又不要太兴奋!此外,在这场辩论中需要一点实用主义– one which the Oilholic saw in a brilliant article in 的 金融时报 by Ajay Makan.
 
In 的 column, Makan notes how within 欧佩克 的re is divide between 的 relatively comfortable Gulf producers (for e.g. 沙特阿拉伯) and 的 rest (most notably 伊朗, Venezuela and African members). The Saudis have welcomed 的 impact of 页岩 as 的y can afford 的 price falling below US$100 level but some of 的ir peers in 欧佩克 can’t. For some more than 的 others, “估算是不可避免的,尤其是在需求增长放缓的情况下,” writes Makan.
 
Then again, beyond supply scenarios, it is worth asking whose 页岩 bonanza is it anyway? First and foremost it is, and as 的 油腻的 was discussing with 菲尔·弗林 of Price Futures a couple of months ago, price positive for 美国n consumers, followed by 液化天然气 importing Asian jurisdictions. While Indian and Chinese policymakers are hardly jumping for joy and will for 的 foreseeable future continue to rely on 欧佩克 members (and Russia) for majority of 的ir 原油 cravings, some in 的 US are already fretting about what US exports would mean for domestic prices!
 
一组– 美国’s Energy Advantage – backed by several prominent US industrial brands including Alcoa, Huntsman chemicals and Dow Chemical, has claimed that "exporting proceeds of 页岩 (to be read 液化天然气) carries with it 的 potential threat of damaging jobs and investment in 的 US manufacturing sector as rising exports will drive up 的 price of gas to 的 detriment of domestic industries."
 
布恩·皮肯斯,在光彩夺目的riposte中, asked can 的 US do what it 已经 criticising 欧佩克 for since 的 cartel's inception and 限制出口? The inimitable industry veteran has a point! That's all for 的 moment from 维也纳 folks! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!
 
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© 高拉夫·夏尔马 2013. OPEC 奥地利维也纳总部外部的徽标 © 高拉夫·夏尔马.

2013年5月24日,星期五

全球石油精湛的剖析& gas depletion

Any analysis of oil and gas depletion is always tricky and often coloured by opposing arguments, disinformation, politics, tangential debates about 的 资源 curse hypothesis and extractive techniques. Given this backdrop, veteran industry analyst Colin J. 坎贝尔’s 在tempt to tackle 的 subject via his 油气枯竭图集,目前是第二版,简直就是历史。
 
这项史诗般的工作总结了坎贝尔为寻求关于耗竭问题的明确而务实的评论而进行的数十年艰苦研究。本书分为9个部分,共77章,对这一主题进行了权威性的划分。其中逐页,逐页地检查了按地区和辖区划分的油气消耗。不仅考虑了地质问题,而且考虑了每个地区和国家的政治气候。 The author 还讨论了新兴技术的影响以及与每个E相关的成本&P管辖区,对常规和非常规来源进行单独检查。

Accompanying discourse on 的 history of 的 oil and gas business is carved up into two halves – 的 first half discusses 的 formation of 的 oil industry, which oversaw (or rather fuelled) 的 exponential growth of 的 global economy. The second half talks of a contraction as 的 easy to extract supplies dwindle, and 的 barrel spent per barrel extracted equation starts getting more and more worrying.
 
坎贝尔 also discusses reporting practices and industry data interpretation techniques. 地图集 switches seamlessly to a country-by-country analysis in alphabetical order by continent. Every country imaginable in 的 context of 的 oil and gas business and even those that are unimaginable in mainstream discourse about our 'crude' world 经过检查,以行业数据和随附的图形为依据。
 
For purposes of reviewing 的 contents, 的 油腻的 selected 10 jurisdictions commonly associated with 的 E&P industry and another 10 jurisdictions, hitherto considered net oil importers. This blogger was quite simply blown away by sincerity and effort of 的 research, along with 简短地介绍管辖权汇总 each country’s 'crude' history into 的 equation. As a reader, you appreciate a book when it adds to your knowledge; 坎贝尔’阿特拉斯(Atlas)确实为您做到了。
 
If you are looking for an authoritative analysis of oil and gas depletion, minus caricature, clichés and political statements, but full of rational and apolitical scrutiny of 的 costs involved with extracting oil and gas, 的n look no further than this book. For an evolving industry, which has a finite natural 资源 as its core offering, 坎贝尔’油气消耗图集 is likely to stand 的 test of time.

The 油腻的 is happy to recommend this book, and humbled to provide a review for 的 research conducted by an analyst of 坎贝尔's credentials. The Atlas 将教育并告知有兴趣的人 石油和天然气行业 future and 的 challenges it faces – be 的y existential or commercial. In particular, those professionals involved with policymaking, petroleum economics, history of 的 oil and gas business, academia and market analysis.
 
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©Gaurav Sharma2013。照片: 封面-坎贝尔’油气消耗图集© 施普林格2013

2013年5月18日,星期六

在'crude' 英国 raid, 国际能源署 & 的 'Houston glut'

There was only story in London town last week, when late in 的 day on 可能 14, 欧盟委员会 (EC) regulators swooped down on 的 offices of major oil companies having R&M operations in 的 英国, investigating fuel 价格固定 allegations. While 的 EC did not name names, 血压, 贝壳 and Statoil confirmed 的ir offices had been among those ‘visited’ by 的 officials.
 
More details emerged overnight, as pricing information provider 普氏 admitted it was also paid a visit. The EC said 的 investigation relates to 的 pricing of oil, refined products and biofuels. As part of its probe, it will be examining whether 的 companies may have prevented others from participating in 的 pricing process in order to "distort" published prices.
 
消息人士称,这一过程无非是 普氏’收市价(MOC)价格评估机制. "Any such behaviour, if established, may amount to violations of European antitrust rules that prohibit cartels and restrictive business practices and abuses of a dominant market position," 的 EC said, but clarified in 的 same breath that 的 raids itself did not imply any guilt on part of 的 companies.
 
The probe extends to alleged trading malpractices dating back almost over 10 years. All oil companies concerned, 在 least 的 ones who admitted to have been 参观过 by EC regulators, said 的y were cooperating with 的 authorities. 普氏 issued a similar statement reiterating its cooperation.
 
So what does it mean? For starters, 的 line of inquiry is nothing new. Following a very vocal campaign led by 英国国会议员罗伯特·哈夫顿, 的 英国's Office of Fair Trading (OFT) investigated 的 issue of 价格固定 and exonerated 的 oil companies in 一月. Not satisfied, Halfon kept up 的 pressure and here we are.
 
"I have been raising 的 issue of alleged fuel 价格固定 time and again in 的 House of Commons. With 的 EC raids, I'd say 的 OFT 已经 caught cold and simply needs to look 在 this again. The issue has cross-party support in 的 英国," he said.
 
In wake of 的 raids, 的 OFT merely said that it stood by its original investigation and was assisting 的 EC in its investigations。问题是,如果’s a big if, any wrongdoing is established, 的n what would 的 penalties be like and how would 的y be enforced? Parallels could be drawn between 的 Libor rate rigging scandal and 的 fines that followed imposed by US, 英国 and European authorities. The largest fine (to date) 已经 CHF1.4 billion (US$1.44 billion) awarded against UBS.
 
So assuming that wrongdoing is established, and fines are of a similar nature, Fitch Ratings reckons 的 companies involved could cope. "These producers typically have between US$10 billion and US$20 billion of cash on 的ir balance sheets. Significantly bigger fines would still be manageable, as shown by 血压's ability to cope with 的 cost of 的 Macondo oil spill, but would be more likely to have an impact on ratings," said Jeffrey Woodruff, Senior Director (Corporates) 在 Fitch Ratings.
 
Other than fines, if an oil company is found to have distorted prices, it could face longer-term risks from damage to its reputation. While 的se risks are less easy to predict and would depend on 的 extent of any wrongdoing, scope does exist for commercial damage, even for sectors with polarising positions in 的 public mind, according to Fitch. Given we are in 的 'early days' phase, let's see what happens or rather doesn't.
 
While 的 EC was busy raiding oil companies, 的 国际能源署 was telling 的 world how 的 US 页岩 bonanza was sending ripples through 的 oil industry. In its 中期石油市场报告(MTOMR),它指出: "的 effects of continued growth in North 美国n supply –以美国轻质致密油(LTO)和加拿大油砂为首– will cascade through 的 global oil market."
 
While geopolitical risks persist, according to 的 国际能源署, market fundamentals were indicative of a more comfortable global oil supply/demand scenario over 的 next five years 在 的 very least. The MTOMR projected North 美国n supply to grow by 3.9 million barrels per day (mbpd) from 2012 to 2018, or nearly two-thirds of total forecast non-OPEC supply growth of 6 mbpd.
 
预计全球液体生产能力将增长8.4 mbpd–大大快于需求–预计将增加6.9 mbpd。在中国和中东的带动下,全球炼油产能将实现更陡峭的增长,激增9.5 Mbps。据IEA称,在抵消了2012年创纪录的供应中断之后,北美供应有望继续弥补其他地区的下降和延迟,但前提是必须建立必要的基础设施。否则,瓶颈可能会压低价格并减缓发展。
 
Meanwhile, 欧佩克 oil will remain a key part of 的 oil mix but its 生产 capacity growth will be adversely affected by "growing insecurity in North and Sub-Saharan Africa", 的 agency said. 欧佩克 capacity is expected to gain 1.75 mbpd to 36.75 mbpd, about 750,000 bpd less than forecast in 的 2012 MTOMR. 伊拉克, 沙特阿拉伯 and 的 UAE will lead 的 growth, but 欧佩克's lower-than-expected aggregate additions to global capacity will boost 的 relative share of North 美国, 的 agency said.
 
Away from supply-demand scenarios and on to pricing, Morgan Stanley forecasts 布伦特's premium to 的 WTI narrow further while progress continues to be made in clearing a supply glut 在 的 US benchamark’s delivery point of Cushing, Oklahoma, over 的 coming months. It was above 的 US$8 mark when 的 油腻的 last checked, well down on 的 $20 it averaged for much of 2012.However, analysts 在 的 investment bank do 在tach a caveat.

Have you heard of 的 休斯顿过剩? There is no disguising 的 fact that Houston 已经 的 recipient of 的 vast majority of 的 "new" inland 原油 oil supplies in 的 Gulf Coast [no prizes for guessing where that is coming from]. The state's extraction processes have become ever more efficient accompanied by its own oil boom to complement 的 existing E&P activity.
 
Lest we forget, North Dakota has overtaken every other US oil producing state in terms of its oil 输出, but not 的 great state of Texas. Yet, infrastructural limitations persist when it comes to dispatching 的 原油 eastwards from Texas to 的 refineries in Louisiana.
 
因此,摩根士丹利分析师指出: "A growing glut of 原油 in Houston suggests WTI-Brent is near a trough and should widen again [at least marginally] later this year. Houston lacks a benchmark, but physical traders indicate that Houston is already pricing about $4 per barrel under 布伦特, given physical limitations in moving 原油 out of 的 area."
 
The 油腻的 can confirm that anecdotal evidence does seem to indicate this is 的 case. So it would be fair to say that Morgan Staley is bang-on in its assessment that 的 "Houston regional pricing" would only erode further as more 原油 reaches 的 area, adding that any move in 布伦特-WTI towards $6-7 a barrel [from 的 current $8-plus] should prove unsustainable.
 
Capacity to bring incremental 原油 to St. James refineries in Louisiana is limited, so 的 Louisiana Light Sweet (LLS) will continue to trade well above Houston pricing; a trend that is likely to continue even after 的 reversal of 的 Houston-Houma pipeline – 的 main 原油 artery between 的 Houston physical market and St. James.
 
在closing note, it seems 的 彭博窥探门 affair escalated last week with 的 英格兰银行 joining 的 chorus of indignation. It all began earlier this month when news emerged of Bloomberg's practice of giving its reporters "limited" access to some data considered proprietary, including when a customer looked into broad categories such as equities or bonds.
 
独家新闻– first reported by 的 金融时报 – led to a full apology by Matthew Winkler, Editor-in-chief of Bloomberg News, for allowing journalists "limited" access to sensitive data about how clients used its terminals, saying it was "inexcusable". However, Winkler insisted that important and confidential customer data had been protected. Problem is, 的y aren't just any customers – they include 的 leading central banks in 的 经合组织.
 
The US Federal Reserve, 的 European Central Bank and 的 Bank of Japan have all said 的y were examining 的 use of data by Bloomberg. However, 的 language used by 的 英格兰银行 is 的 sternest so far. The British central bank described 的 events 在 Bloomberg as "reprehensible."
 
A spokesperson said, "The protection of confidential information is vital here 在 的 bank. What seems to have happened 在 Bloomberg is reprehensible. Bank officials are in close contact with Bloomberg…我们还将就此事与其他中央银行联络。”
 
In 的se past few days 的re have been signs that 彭博窥探门 随着巴西变得越来越大’s central bank and 的 Hong Kong Monetary Authority (the Chinese territory's de facto central bank) have also expressed 的ir indignation. Having been a 英格兰银行 and 英国 Office for National Statistics (ONS) correspondent, yours truly can personally testify how seriously central banks take issue with such things and so 的y should.
 
Yet, in describing Bloomberg's practice as "reprehensible", 的 英格兰银行 has indicated how serious it thinks 的 breach of confidence was and how miffed it is. The 英国 central bank has since received assurances from Bloomberg that 的re would be no repeat of 的 issue! You bet! That's all for 的 moment folks! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!
 
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©Gaurav Sharma2013。照片:废弃的加油站©托德·吉普斯坦(Todd Gipstein)/国家地理 

2013年5月7日,星期二

英国石油天然气公司-撒切尔时代!

The 油腻的 has patiently waited for 的 fans and despisers of former British Prime Minister 玛格丽特·撒切尔 to quieten down, in wake of her death on 四月 8, 2013, before giving his humble take on what her premiership did (or in many cases didn’t) for 的 英国 oil and gas Inc. and what she got in return.
 
Her influence on 的 北海 exploration and 生产 certainly got a mention in passing in all 的 tributes and brickbats thrown 在 的 铁娘子, 的 longest serving (1979-1990) and only 女英国首相。世界’s press ranging from 经济学家 to 的 local paper in her former parliamentary constituency – 亨顿& Finchley Times (见下面的封面) – discussed 的 legacy of 的 铁娘子; that legacy is ‘cruder’ than you think.
 
In 的 run-up to Thatcher's all-but-in-name state funeral on 四月 17, 的 British public was bombarded with flashbacks of her time in 的 corridors of power. In one of 的 video runs, yours truly glanced 在 archived footage of Thatcher 在 a 血压 生产 facility and that said it all. Her impact on 的 industry and 的 industry’s impact itself on her premiership were profound to say 的 least.
 
Academic Peter R. Odell, noted 在 的 time in his book  石油与世界大国 (c1986)那 “Countries as diverse as Finland, France, Italy, 奥地利, Spain, 挪威 and 英国 had all decided to place oil partly, 在 least, in 的 public sector.” 后面的脚注指出, “Britain’撒切尔夫人领导下的保守党政府随后[于1983年]决定‘privatize’ 的 British National Oil Corporation (BNOC)由早期的劳动行政管理部门创建。”
 
The virtue of private free enterprise got instilled into 的 英国 oil and gas industry in general and 的 北海 innovators in particular thanks to Thatcher. But to say that 的 industry somehow owed 的 铁娘子 a debt of gratitude would be a travesty. Rather, 的 industry repaid that debt not only in full, but with interest.
 
Just as Thatcher was coming to power, more and more of 的 原油 stuff was being sucked out of 的 北海 with 英国 Continental Shelf (UKCS) being much richer in those days than it certainly is 的se days. The 英国 Treasury, under her hawk-eyed watch, was quite simply raking it in. According to 的 Office for National Statistics (ONS) data, government revenue from 的 oil and gas industry rose from £1978-79财政年度的5.65亿£1984-85年为120.4亿美元。根据巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)一位联系人提供的估计,这相当于2012年实际价值的三倍多。
 
Throughout 的 1980s, 的 铁娘子 made sure that 的 revenue from 的 [often up to] 90% tax on 北海 oil and gas exploration and 生产 was used as a funding source to balance 的 economy and pay 的 costs of economic reform. Over three decades on from 的 原油 boom of 的 1980s, Brits do wish she had examined, some say even adopted, 的 Norwegian model.
 
那个她 私有化 the BNOC does not irk 的 油腻的 one bit, but that not even a drop of black gold and its proceeds –更不用说一支成熟的挪威式主权基金了– was put aside for a rainy day is nothing short of short-termism or short-sightedness; quite possibly both. One agrees that both macroeconomic and demographical differences between 挪威 and 的 英国 complicate 的 discussion. This humble blogger doubts if 的 thought of creating a sovereign fund didn’t cross 的 铁娘子’s mind.
 
But unquestionably, as oil and gas revenue was helping in feeding 的 rising state benefits bill 在 的 time – all Thatcher saw in 布伦特, 吹笛者 and 鸬鹚 fields were Petropounds to balance 的 books. And, if you thought 的 ‘crude’ influence ended in 的 sale of BNOC, privatisation drives or channelling revenue for short-term economic rebalancing, 的n think again. Crude oil, or rather a distillate called diesel, came to Thatcher’帮助她进行国内政治上的最大战役– 的 Miners’ Strike of 1984.
 
反对她的智慧 亚瑟·斯嘉吉(Arthur Scargill), 的 National Union of Mineworkers’ (NUM) hardline, stubborn, ultra-left leader 在 的 time, she prevailed. In 游行 1984, 的 National Coal Board (NCB) proposed to close 20 of 的 174 state-owned mines resulting in 的 loss of 20,000 jobs. Led by Scargill, two-thirds of 的 country's miners went on strike and so began 的 face-off.
 
But Thatcher, unlike her predecessors, was ready for a prolonged battle having learnt her lesson in an earlier brief confrontation with 的 miners and knew 的ir union’s clout full well based on past histories. This time around, 的 government had stockpiled 煤炭 to ensure that power plants faced no shortages as was 的 case with previous confrontations.
 
Tongue-tied in his vanity, Scargill had not only missed 的 pulse of 的 stockpiling drive but also failed to realise that many 英国 power plants had switched to diesel as a back-up. Adding to 的 overall idiocy of 的 man, he decided to launch 的 strike in 的 summer of 1984, when power consumption is lower, than in 的 winter.
 
此外,在一次全国性罢工(1982年1月,1982年10月和1983年3月)输掉了前三张选票后,他拒绝举行罢工。罢工被宣布为非法,撒切尔最终在1985年3月的NUM认输后赢得了胜利,没有任何可观的让步,但其成员却遭受了巨大的艰辛。世界正从煤炭转移到另一种化石燃料上,撒切尔对此比大多数人都掌握得更好。那个国家当时是原油原料的净生产国,这真是一笔大财。财政部’从她看到的开始。
 
铁娘子离开办公室‘ism’ in 的 shape of 'Thatcherism' and bred 'Thatcherites' espousing free market ideas and by default making capitalism 的 dominant, though recently beleaguered, economic system of our time. 大爆炸, 的 day [October 27, 1986] 的 伦敦证券交易所's rules changed, following deregulation of 的 financial markets, became 的 cornerstone of her economic policy.
 
In this world 的re are no moral absolutes. So 的 油腻的 does not accept 的 rambunctious arguments offered by left wingers that she made ‘greed’ acceptable or that 的 大爆炸 caused 的 global financial crisis of 2007-08. Weren’t militant British unions who, for 的ir own selfish odds and ends, held 的 whole country to ransom throughout 的 1970s (until Thatcher decimated 的m), 贪婪y too? If 的 大爆炸 was to blame for a global financial crisis, so was banking deregulation in 的 英国 in 1997 (and elsewhere around that time) when she was not around.
 
Equally silly, are 的 fawning accolades handed out by 的 right wingers; many of whom – and not 的 British public –实际上帮助她离开办公室 其中一些是她 colleagues 在 的 time. Let 的 wider debate about her legacy be where it is, but were it not for 的 英国 oil and gas Inc., 的re would have been no legacy. Luck played its part, as it so often does in 的 lives of great leaders. As 经济学家 注意:
 
“She was also often outrageously lucky: lucky that 的 striking miners were led by 亚瑟·斯嘉吉(Arthur Scargill), a hardline Marxist; lucky that 的 British left fractured and insisted on choosing unelectable leaders; lucky that [Argentine] General Galtieri decided to invade 的 Falkland Islands when he did; lucky that she was a tough woman in a system dominated by patrician men (the wets never knew how to cope with her); lucky in 的 flow of 北海 oil; and above all lucky in her timing. The post-war consensus was ripe for destruction, and a host of new forces, from personal computers to private equity, aided her more rumbustious form of capitalism.”
 
They say that 的 late Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez stage-managed 'Chavismo' and bred 'Chavistas' from 的 proceeds of black gold. The 油腻的 says 'Thatcherism' and 'Thatcherites' have a ‘crude’尺寸也一样。选择任何您喜欢的证据–统计的,经验的或轶事的– 原油 oil bankrolled Thatcherism in its infancy. That is 的 unassailable truth and that’s all for 的 moment folks! Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!
 
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©Gaurav Sharma2013。照片1:玛格丽特·撒切尔男爵夫人’的葬礼,以军事荣誉授勋,2013年4月17日© 高拉夫·夏尔马. Photo 2: Front page of 的 Hendon & Finchley Times, 四月 11, 2013. Photo 3: Front cover of 的 经济学家, 四月 13, 2013.

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