放置n’ calls, 俄国 ‘peaking’ & Peking’s 页岩

Oil market volatility continues unabated indicative of 的 barmy nature of 的 world we live in. On 一月 25, 的 布伦特 forward month futures contract spiked above US$113. If 的 day's intraday price of US$113.46 is used as a cut-off point, 的n it has risen by 4.3% since Christmas Eve. If you ask what has changed in a month? Well not much! 的 阿尔及利亚n terror strike, despite 的 tragic nature of events, does not fundamentally alter 的 geopolitical 风险溢价 for 2013.

In fact, many commentators think 的 风险溢价大致保持中性 and hinged on 的 question whether or not 伊朗 flares-up. So is a US$113-plus 布伦特 price merited? Not one jot! If you took such a price-level 在 face value, 的n yours would be a hugely optimistic view of 的 global economy, one that it does not merit on 的 basis of economic survey data.

 

In an interesting note, 奥莱汉森, Head of Commodity Strategy 在 盛宝银行, gently nudges observers in 的 direction of examining 的 put/call ratio. For those who don’t know, in layman terms 的 ratio measures mass psychology amongst market participants. It is 的 trading volume of put options divided by 的 trading volume of call options. （见上图礼貌 盛宝银行点击图片放大）

 

When 的 ratio is relatively high, this means 的 trading community or shall we say 的 majority in 的 trading community expect bearish trends. When 的 ratio is relatively low, 的y’重新走向多头道路。

 

汉森观察到： “The most popular traded strikes over 的 five trading days (to 一月 23) are evenly split between puts and calls. 的 most traded has been 的 六月 13 Call strike 115 (last US$ 3.13 per barrel), 四月 13 Call 120 (US$0.61), 四月 13 Put 100 (US$0.56) and 六月 13 Put 95 (US$1.32). 的 hedging of a potential geopolitical spike has been seen through 的 buying of 六月 13 Call 130, last traded 在 US$0.54/barrel.”

 

的 Oilholic认为应该谨慎地指出，跟踪每周市场看跌期权和看涨期权的数量是一种衡量大多数交易者情绪的方法。总体而言，市场可以在正确的情况下证明大多数交易者是错误的。所以让’看事物如何发展。同时，芝商所集团在1月24日表示，NYMEX 3月布伦特原油期货曾升至下一个目标价112.90 / 113.29美元，并突破该水平，但本月未能突破’高的“未来几天信号弱点”。

 

的  group also announced a record in daily trading volume for its 纽约商品交易所 布伦特 futures contract as trading volumes, using 一月 18 as a cut-off point, jumped to 30,250 contracts; a 38% increase over 的 previous record of 21,997 set on 八月 8, 2012.

 

从原油市场到股票市场，埃克森美孚终于在1月25日重新成为了最有价值的公开交易公司！苹果在2011年从埃克森美孚（ExxonMobil）手中夺得头把交椅，后者自2005年以来一直持有该公司。您的公司确实没有两家公司的股份，而是基于公司业绩的绝对一致性，创造工作岗位的总体价值以及对公司的总体贡献。在全球经济中，有一天人们会投票选举石油巨头为一家电子产品制造商（抱歉，如果您认为Oilholic过于简化了这一论点，则为Apple粉丝）。

 

Switching tack to 的 macro picture, 惠誉 Ratings says 俄国n oil 生产 will probably 峰 in 的 next few years as gains from new oilfields are offset by falling output from brownfield sites. In a statement on 一月 22, 的 ratings agency said 生产 gains that 俄国 achieved over 的 last decade were mainly driven by intensive application of new technology, in particular horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing applied to Western Siberian brownfields on a massive scale.

 

"This allowed oil companies to tap previously unreachable reservoirs and dramatically reverse declining 生产 rates 在 的se fields, some of 哪一个 have been producing oil for several decades. In addition, 俄国 saw successful launches of several new 生产 areas, including Rosneft's large Eastern Siberian Vankor field in 2009," 惠誉 notes.

 

However, 惠誉 says 的 biggest potential gains from new technology have now been mostly achieved. 的 latest 生产 figures from 的 俄国n Ministry of Energy show that total 原油 oil 生产 in 的 country increased by 1.3% in 2012 to 518 million tons. 俄国n refinery volumes increased by 4.5% to 266 million tons while exports dropped by 1% to 239 million tons. 俄国n oil 生产 has increased rapidly from a low of 303 million tons in 1996.

 

"Greenfields are located in inhospitable and remote places and projects 的refore require large amounts of capital. We believe oil prices would need to remain above US$100 per barrel and 的 俄国n government would need to provide tax incentives for oil companies to invest in additional Eastern Siberian 生产," 惠誉 says.

 

一个显着的例外是里海架子，俄罗斯卢克石油’s second largest oil company, is progressing with its exploration and 生产 programme. 的 ratings agency does see potential for more joint ventures between 俄国n and international oil companies in exploring 的 俄国n continental shelf. No doubt, 的 needs must paradigm, 哪一个 is very visible elsewhere in 的 ‘crude’世界，也适用于俄罗斯人。

 

On 的 very same day as 惠誉 raised 的 possibility of 俄国n 生产 达到顶峰, Peking announced a massive capital spending drive towards 页岩 exploration. 路透社报道 that 中国 intends to start its own 页岩 gale as 的 country’s Ministry of Land and Resources issued exploration rights for 19 页岩 prospection blocks to 16 firms. Local media suggests most of 的 exploration rights pertain to 页岩 gas exploration with 的 16 firms pledging US$2 billion towards 的 move.

On 的 subject of 页岩 and before 的 news arrived from 中国, IHS副主席Daniel Yergin 告诉 the 世界经济论坛  in 达沃斯 that major unconventional opportunities are being identified around 的 world. "Our research indicates that 的 页岩 resource base in 中国 may be larger than in 的 USA, and we note prospects elsewhere," he added.

 

但是，两者 的 油腻的 and 的 industry veteran and founder of IHS CERA agree that 的 circumstances 哪一个 led to and promoted 的 development of unconventional sources in 的 USA differ in important aspects from other parts of 的 world.

“仍处于起步阶段，我们相信还需要几年的时间，其他地区才会开始出现大量的非常规油气，” Yergin 说过。 In fact, 的 US is benefitting in more ways than one if IHS’ new report Energy and 的 新的全球工业格局：构造转变 可以相信。

In it, IHS forecasts that 的 "direct, indirect and induced effects" of 的 surge in nonconventional oil and gas extraction have already added 1.7 million jobs to 的 US jobs market with 3 million expected by 2020. Furthermore, 2012年，联邦和州政府的财政收入增加了620亿美元，预计到2020年将达到1,110亿美元。 （请参见上方的条形图 IHS. Click image to enlarge)

 

IHS还预测，2013年非欧佩克国家的石油供应量将达到每天110万桶–大于全球需求的增长– 哪一个 has happened only four times since 1986. Leading this non-OPEC growth is indeed 的 surge in unconventional oil in 的 USA. 的 report does warn, however, that increases in non-OPEC supply elsewhere in 的 world could be subject to what has proved to be a recurrent “失望的历史。”

 

那’s all for 的 moment folks！继续阅读，继续阅读‘crude’!

 

To follow 的 油腻的 on Twitter 点击这里.

 

©Gaurav Sharma2013。图：Brent Crude– Put/Call ratio ©盛宝银行，照片：俄罗斯杰里泵千斤顶© 卢克, Bar Chart: US jobs growth projection in 的 unconventional oil & gas sector © IHS 2013.

阿尔及利亚’s ‘dark cloud’, PDVSA’s ratings & more

的 terrorist strike on 阿尔及利亚’s 在Amenas 上周的天然气田以及该国的血腥洗礼’试图夺回该设施的部队占据了新闻头条。据新闻通讯社报道，围困于周六结束，至少有40名人质和32名恐怖分子丧生。随着更多细节的出现，这个数字可能会改变。人质劫持者还对整个设施进行了开采，目前正在进行清理。该油田是阿尔及利亚的Sonatrach，Statoil和BP之间的合资企业。停产期间，每天估计损失50,000桶（bpd）冷凝水，但对阿尔及利亚的破坏’s oil &天然气行业可能会恶化，因为外国石油工人被故意作为目标。

 

国际能源署在评估恐怖袭击的影响时说，在天然气田绑架和谋杀外国石油工人已经造成了严重后果。‘dark cloud’ over 的 outlook for 的 country's energy sector. 的 agency said that 'political 风险 writ large' dominates much of 的 energy market, 'and not just in Syria, 伊朗, Iraq, Libya or Venezuela' with 阿尔及利亚 returning to 的ir ranks. Some say it never left in 的 first place.

 

Reflecting this sentiment, 血压 said hundred of overseas workers from IOCs had left 阿尔及利亚 and many more were likely to join 的m. Three of 的 company’s own workers 在 的 在Amenas 设施不明。

 

Continuing with 的 中东和北非 region, news emerged that 沙特阿拉伯’12月份产量下降290,000 bpd至936万bpd。随后，欧佩克’s output in 十二月 also fell to its lowest level in a year 在 30.65 million bpd. This coupled, with projections of rising Chinese demand, prompted 的 国际能源署 to raise its global oil demand forecast for 2013 describing it as a 'sobering, 'morning after' view.'

 

的 forecast is now 超过240,000 bpd the 国际能源署 estimate published 到12月，日产量高达9080万桶；增长1％ over 2012. "All of a sudden, 的 market looks tighter than we thought…OECD inventories are getting tighter - a clean break from 的 protracted and often counter-seasonal builds that had been a hallmark of 2012," 国际能源署 说过。

 

However, 的 agency stressed 的re was no need for rushed interpretations. "的 dip in Saudi supply, for one, seems less driven by price considerations than by 的 weather. A dip in air conditioning demand - as well as reduced demand from refineries undergoing seasonal maintenance - likely goes a long way towards explaining reduced output. Nothing for 的 global market to worry about," 的 国际能源署 说过。

 

"的 bull market of 2003‐2008 was all about demand growth and perceived supply constraints. 的 bear market that followed was all about financial meltdown. Today's market, as 的 latest data underscore, has a lot to do with political 风险 writ large. Furthermore, changes in tax and trade policies, in 中国 and in 俄国, can, 在 的 stroke of a pen, shakeup 原油 and products markets and redraw 的 oil trade map," 的 agency concluded.

 

简单地说，’s too early for speculators to get excited about a possible bull rally in 的 first quarter of 2013, something which 你也真的怀疑. However, across 的 pond, 的 WTI forward month futures contract cut its 布伦特 discount to less than US$15 在 one point last week, 的 lowest since 七月. As 的 glut 在 Cushing, Oklahoma subsides following 的 capacity expansion of 的 海路管道, 的 WTI-Brent discount would be an interesting sideshow this year. 

 

的 国际能源署 added that non-OPEC 生产 was projected to rise by 980,000 bpd to 54.3 million bpd, 的 highest growth rate since 2010. Concurrently, 血压 said that US 页岩 oil 生产 is expected to grow around 5 million bpd by 2030. This, according to 的 oil major, is likely to be offset by reductions in supply from 欧佩克, 哪一个 has been pumping 在 historical highs led by 的 Saudis in recent years.

 

血压's chief economist Christof Ruehl said, "This will generate spare capacity of around 6 million bpd, and 的re's a fault line if 的re is higher 页岩 生产 的n 的 consequences would be even stronger." But 的 页岩 revolution will remain largely a "North American phenomenon," he added.

 

"No other country outside 的 US and Canada has yet succeeded in combining 的se factors to support 生产 growth. While we expect other regions will adapt over time to develop 的ir resources, by 2030 we expect North America still to dominate 生产 of 的se resources," Ruehl 说过。

 

Along 的 same 的me, 美国有线电视新闻网报道 that California is sitting on a massive amount of 页岩 oil and could become 的 next oil boom state. 那’s only if 的 industry can get 的 stuff out of 的 ground without upsetting 的 state's powerful environmental lobby. Yeah, good luck with that!

Returning to 沙特阿拉伯, 惠誉 Ratings said earlier this month that an expansionary 2013 budget based on a conservative oil price will support another year of healthy economic growth for 的 country and a further strengthening of 的 sovereign's net creditor position. However, overall growth will slow “由于近几个月来石油产量的下降已经很明显。”

 

In 的 full year to 十二月-end 2013, 的 Saudi budget, unveiled on 十二月 29, projected record spending of US$219 billion (34% of GDP), up by almost 20% on 的 2012 budget. Budgeted capital spending is 28% higher than in 2012, though 的 government has struggled to achieve its capital spending targets in recent years.

 

While an 18% rise in Saudi revenues is projected in 的 budget, 的y are based on unstated oil price and 生产 assumptions, with 的 former well below prevailing market prices. 惠誉 anticipates Saudi 生产 and prices will be lower in 2013 than 2012.

"With no new revenue-raising measures announced and little scope for higher oil revenues, 的 revenue projection appears less cautious than usual. However, actual revenues generally substantially exceed budget revenues (by an average of 82% over 的 past five years) and should do so again in 2013," the agency said.

 

Meanwhile, political uncertainty continues in Venezuela with no clarity about 的 health of President Hugo Chavez. It has done Petróleos de Venezuela's (PDVSA), 的 country’的国家石油公司，没有任何帮助。 1月16日，评级机构穆迪（Moody）’将PDVSA的评级展望下调为负面。

It followed 的 change in outlook for 的 Venezuelan government's local and foreign currency bond ratings to negative. "的 sovereign rating action reflects increasing uncertainty over President Chavez's political succession, and 的 impact of a possibly tumultuous transition on civil order, 的 economy, and an already deteriorating government fiscal position," 穆迪’s 说过。

 

On PDVSA, 的 agency added that as a government-related issuer, the company's ratings reflect a high level of imputed government support and default correlation between 的 two entities. Hence, a downgrade of 的 government's local and foreign currency ratings would be likely to result in a downgrade of PDVSA's ratings as well.

 

Away from a Venezuela, two developments in 的 北海 –正面和负面– are worth taking about. Starting with 的 positive news first, global advisory firm Deloitte found that 65 exploration and appraisal wells were drilled on 的 UK Continental Shelf (UKCS), compared with 49 in 2011.

 

的 activity, according to Deloitte, was boosted by a broader range of tax allowances and a sustained high oil price. 的 news came as 达纳石油 said 生产 had commenced 在 的 Cormorant East field 哪一个 would produce about 5,500 bpd initially. Production will be processed 在 的 塔卡-operated North Cormorant platform, before being sent to 血压's 苏勒姆·沃 terminal (上图）出售。

 

塔卡, an Abu Dhabi government-owned energy company, has a majority 60% stake in 的 field. Alongside 达纳石油 (20%), its other partners include Antrim Resources (8.4%), First Oil Expro (7.6%) and Granby Enterprises (4%).

 

While 塔卡 was still absorbing 的 positives, its Cormorant Alpha platform, about 160 km from 的 Shetland Islands, reported a leak leading to a 生产 shut-down 在 20 other interconnected 北海 oilfields.

 

Cormorant Alpha platform handles an output of about 90,000 bpd of 原油 哪一个 is transported through 的 布伦特 pipeline to 苏勒姆·沃 for dispatch. Of this only 10,000 bpd is its own output. Thankfully 的re was no loss of life and 塔卡 said 的 minor leak had been contained. It is currently in 的 process of restoring 80,000 bpd worth of 原油 back to 的 布伦特 pipeline system along with sorting its own output.

 

Finally, as 的 油腻的在十月回访夏威夷时写了博客, 特索罗 is to close its Kapolei, O'ahu refinery in 的 island state in 四月 as a buyer has failed to turn-up (so far). In 的 interim, it will be converting 的 facility to a distribution and storage terminal in 的 hope that a buyer turn up. 的 油腻的 hopes so too, but in this climate it will prove tricky. 特索罗 will continue to fulfil existing supply commitments.

 

那’s all for 的 moment folks except to inform you that after resisting it for years, yours truly has finally succumbed and opened a Twitter账号！继续阅读，继续阅读‘crude’!

 

To follow 的 油腻的 on Twitter 点击这里.

 

©Gaurav Sharma，2013年。照片：Sullom Voe Terminal，BP© 血压 Plc.

论有限资源与中国’s urges

我们不断辩论世界’快速消耗自然资源；从化石燃料到可耕种的土地供不应求。有些人通常认为 the quest for mineral wealth would be a fight to 的 death. Others, like academic 丹比萨·莫约（Dambisa Moyo） take a more pragmatic line on resource scarcity and rationally analyse what is 在 stake as she has done in her latest book 获胜者：中国’争夺资源，这对我们意味着什么.

那 的 Chinese are in town for more than just a slice of 的 自然资源 cake is well documented. Yet, instead of crying ‘wolf’, Moyo sequentially dissects and offers highly readable conjecture on how 中国 is leading 的 global race for 自然资源 be it via 的ir national oil companies, mergers, asset acquisitions, lobbying or political leverage on an international scale.

While cleverly watching out for 的ir interests, 的 author explains, in this book of just over 250 pages split by two parts containing 10 chapters, that 的 Chinese are neck-deep in a global resources rush but not necessarily 的 causative agents of perceived resource scarcity.

However, that 的y are 的 dominant players in a high stakes hunt for commodities from Africa to Latin America is unmistakable. For good measure and as to be expected of a book of this nature, 的 author has examined a variety of tangents hurled around in a resource security debate. 的 荷兰病, geopolitics, 风险溢价 in commodities prices, resource curse hypothesis have all been visited versus 的 Chinese quest by Moyo.

的 油腻的 found her arguments on 的 subject 既不危言耸听也不是民粹主义者。相反，她做了值得称赞的事情，它考察了我们如何在资源辩论，商品市场运作和我们所看到的地缘政治转变中达到这一点，而不是使主题产生轰动。作者本人认为中国可能在争夺资源方面处于领先地位，但绝不是该镇唯一的饥饿之马。

总体而言，这是一本非常体面的书，鉴于其在当今的相关性和流行性，它值得一读’s world. 的 油腻的 would be happy recommend it to commodities traders, those interested in international affairs, geopolitics, financial news and resource economics. Finally, those who have made a career out of future projections would find it very well worth 的ir while to absorb it from cover to cover.

To follow 的 油腻的 on Twitter 点击这里. 

©Gaurav Sharma2013。照片：封面-获胜者通吃© Allen Lane / 英国企鹅集团.

的 oil market in 2013: thoughts & riddles aplenty

Over a fortnight into 2013 and a mere day away from 的 布伦特 forward month futures contract for 二月 expiring, 的 price is above 尼尔森 在 US$111.88 per barrel. 那’在一天之内在110美元到112美元之间往返之后。

As far as 的 early 一月 market sentiment goes, ICE Future Europe said hedge funds and other money managers raised bullish positions on 布伦特 原油 by 10,925 contracts for 的 week ended 一月 8; 的 highest in nine months. Net long positions in futures and options combined, outnumbered short positions by 150,036 lots in 的 week ended 一月 8, 的 highest level since 游行 27 and 的 fourth consecutive weekly advance.

On 的 other hand, bearish positions by producers, merchants, processors and users of 布伦特 outnumbered bullish positions by 175,478, down from 151,548 last week. It’s 的 biggest net-short position among this category of market participants since 八月 14. So where are we now and where will we be on 十二月 31, 2013?

Despite many market suggestions to 的 contrary, 巴克莱银行 continues to maintain a 2013 布伦特 forecast of US$125. 的 readers of this blog asked 的 油腻的 why and well 的 油腻的 asked 巴克莱银行 why. To quote 的 chap yours truly spoke to, 的 reason for this is that 巴克莱银行’ analysts still see 的 Middle East as “most likely”地缘政治催化剂。

“While 的re are other likely areas of interest for 的 oil market in 2013, in our view 的 main nexus for 的 transmission into oil prices is likely to be 的 Middle East, with 的 spiralling situations in Syria and Iraq layered in on top of 的 core issue of 伊朗’的对外关系”巴克莱报告将添加。

宏观经济的不连续性将继续存在，但巴克莱银行’ analysts reckon that 的 catalyst 的y refer to will arrive 在 some point in 2013. Nailing 的ir colours to mast, well above 尼尔森, 的ir analysts conclude: “We are 的refore maintaining our 2013 布伦特 forecast of US$125 per barrel, just as we have for 的 past 21 months since that forecast was initiated in 游行 2011.”

Agreed, 的 Middle East will always give food for thought to 的 observers of geopolitical 风险 (or instability) premium. Though it is not as exact a science as analysts make it out to be. However, what if 的 Chinese economy tanks? To what extent will it act as a bearish counterweight? And what are 的 chances of such an event?

For starters, 的 油腻的 thinks 的 chances are 'slim-ish', but if you’d like to put a percentage figure to 的 element of chance 的n Michael Haigh, head of commodities research 在 法国兴业银行, thinks 的re is a 20% probability of a Chinese hard-landing in 2013. This 的n begs 的 question – are 的 原油 bulls buggered if 中国 tanks, 风险溢价 or no 风险溢价?

中国目前消耗的金属约为40％，主要农作物为23％，其中20％为基础金属。‘non-renewable’ energy resources. So in 的 event of a Chinese hard-landing, not only will 的 原油 bulls be buggered, 的y’ll also lose 的ir mojo as investor confidence will be battered.

Haigh认为，如果中国经济放缓，布伦特原油价格可能会暴跌至75美元。“油价下跌30％（按照布伦特现值计算，相当于约30美元）将最终推动GDP增长，从而拉高油价。如果由于中国的冲击价格下跌，欧佩克国家将减产。所以我们期望布伦特’因此，我们将其限制在75美元以内，” he adds.

记住，印度是另一个主要消费国，也并非完全处于幸福的境地。但是，谨慎地指出当前的市场预测表明，除非发生经济动荡，2013年印度和中国的消费量预计都会增加。与此同时，美国与国际原油市场的分离将继续，美国原油产量将降至根据EIA的数据，今年的增长幅度是有史以来最大的。

的 independent statistical arm of 的 US Department of Energy, estimates that 的 country’s 原油 oil 生产 would grow by 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2013 to 7.3 million bpd. While 的 rate of increase is seen slowing slightly in 2014 to 600,000 bpd, 的 total jump in US oil 生产 to 7.9 million bpd would be up 23% from 的 6.4 million bpd pumped domestically in 2012.

的 latest forecast from 的 EIA is 的 first to include 2014 hailing 页岩! If 的 agency’s projections prove to be accurate, US 原油 oil 生产 would have jumped 在 a mind-boggling rate of 40% between 2011 and 2014.

的 EIA notes that rising output in North Dakota's 巴肯 formation and Texas's Eagle Ford fields has made US producers sharper and more productive. "的 learning curve in 的 巴肯 and Eagle Ford fields, 哪一个 is where 的 biggest part of this increase is coming from, has been pretty steep," a spokesperson 说过。

So it sees 的 WTI averaging US$89 in 2013 and US$91 a barrel in 2014. Curiously enough, in line with other market forecasts, bar that of 巴克莱银行, 的 EIA, 哪一个 recently adopted 布伦特 as its new international benchmark, sees it fall marginally to around US$105 in 2013 and falling further to US$99 a barrel in 2014.

On a related note, 惠誉 Ratings sees supply and demand pressures supportive of 布伦特 prices above US$100 in 2013. “尽管欧洲需求疲软，但这将被新兴市场的增长所抵消。在供应方面，风险的平衡趋向于消极而非积极的冲击，对伊朗进行军事干预的可能性仍然是最明显的潜在破坏者，”它在最近的一份报告中说。

However, 的 ratings agency thinks 的re is enough spare capacity in 的 world to deal with 的 loss of 伊朗's roughly 2.8 million bpd of output. Although this would leave little spare capacity in 的 system were 的re to be another supply disruption. Let’s see how it all pans out; 的 油腻的 sees a US$105 to US$115 circa for 布伦特 over 2013.

Meanwhile, 的 spread between 布伦特 and WTI has narrowed to a 4-month low after 的 restart of 的 海路管道 last week, 哪一个 has been shut since 一月 2 in order to complete a major expansion. 的 expanded pipeline will not only reduce 的 bottleneck 在 Cushing, Oklahoma but reduce imports of waterborne 原油 as well. According to 彭博社, 的 原油 flow to 的 Gulf of Mexico, from Cushing, 的 delivery point for 的 纽约商品交易所 oil futures contract, rose to 400,000 bpd last Friday from 150,000 bpd 在 的 time of 的 temporary closure.

On a closing note, and going back to 惠誉 Ratings, 的 agency believes that cheap US 页岩 gas is not a material threat to 的 Europe, Middle East and Africa’（EMEA）的石油和天然气部门在2013年的发展。它指出，美国缺乏出口基础设施，政治上要求美国实现天然气自给自足，并且在欧洲普遍存在基于石油的长期天然气供应合同暗示在短期至中期，欧洲天然气价格将承受适度的下行压力。

惠誉’s overall expectation for oil and gas revenues in 欧洲，中东和非洲 in 2013 is one of very modest growth, supported by continued, if weakened, global GDP expansion and potential supply shocks. 的 ratings agency anticipates that top line 欧洲，中东和非洲 oil and gas revenue growth in 2013 will be in 的 low single digits. 的re remains a material – roughly 30% to 40% – chance that revenue will fall for 的 major 欧洲，中东和非洲 oil producers, but if so this fall is unlikely to be precipitous according to a 惠誉 spokesperson.

那’s all for 的 moment folks! One doubts if oil traders are as superstitious about 尼尔森 or 的 number 111 as English cricketers and Hindu priests are, so here’到2013年原油年度。继续阅读，继续阅读‘crude’!

To follow 的 油腻的 on Twitter 点击这里.

©Gaurav Sharma2013。照片：Holly Rig，圣塔芭芭拉，美国加利福尼亚©詹姆斯·福特（James Forte）/《国家地理》。