Oil market volatility continues unabated indicative of 的 barmy nature of 的 world we live in. On 一月 25, 的 布伦特 forward month futures contract spiked above US$113. If 的 day's intraday price of US$113.46 is used as a cut-off point, 的n it has risen by 4.3% since Christmas Eve. If you ask what has changed in a month? Well not much! 的 阿尔及利亚n terror strike, despite 的 tragic nature of events, does not fundamentally alter 的 geopolitical 风险溢价 for 2013.
In an interesting note, 奥莱汉森, Head of Commodity Strategy 在 盛宝银行, gently nudges observers in 的 direction of examining 的 put/call ratio. For those who don’t know, in layman terms 的 ratio measures mass psychology amongst market participants. It is 的 trading volume of put options divided by 的 trading volume of call options. (见上图礼貌 盛宝银行点击图片放大)
When 的 ratio is relatively high, this means 的 trading community or shall we say 的 majority in 的 trading community expect bearish trends. When 的 ratio is relatively low, 的y’重新走向多头道路。
汉森观察到: “The most popular traded strikes over 的 five trading days (to 一月 23) are evenly split between puts and calls. 的 most traded has been 的 六月 13 Call strike 115 (last US$ 3.13 per barrel), 四月 13 Call 120 (US$0.61), 四月 13 Put 100 (US$0.56) and 六月 13 Put 95 (US$1.32). 的 hedging of a potential geopolitical spike has been seen through 的 buying of 六月 13 Call 130, last traded 在 US$0.54/barrel.”
的 Oilholic认为应该谨慎地指出,跟踪每周市场看跌期权和看涨期权的数量是一种衡量大多数交易者情绪的方法。总体而言,市场可以在正确的情况下证明大多数交易者是错误的。所以让’看事物如何发展。同时,芝商所集团在1月24日表示,NYMEX 3月布伦特原油期货曾升至下一个目标价112.90 / 113.29美元,并突破该水平,但本月未能突破’高的“未来几天信号弱点”。
的 group also announced a record in daily trading volume for its 纽约商品交易所 布伦特 futures contract as trading volumes, using 一月 18 as a cut-off point, jumped to 30,250 contracts; a 38% increase over 的 previous record of 21,997 set on 八月 8, 2012.
从原油市场到股票市场,埃克森美孚终于在1月25日重新成为了最有价值的公开交易公司!苹果在2011年从埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil)手中夺得头把交椅,后者自2005年以来一直持有该公司。您的公司确实没有两家公司的股份,而是基于公司业绩的绝对一致性,创造工作岗位的总体价值以及对公司的总体贡献。在全球经济中,有一天人们会投票选举石油巨头为一家电子产品制造商(抱歉,如果您认为Oilholic过于简化了这一论点,则为Apple粉丝)。

"This allowed oil companies to tap previously unreachable reservoirs and dramatically reverse declining 生产 rates 在 的se fields, some of 哪一个 have been producing oil for several decades. In addition, 俄国 saw successful launches of several new 生产 areas, including Rosneft's large Eastern Siberian Vankor field in 2009," 惠誉 notes.
However, 惠誉 says 的 biggest potential gains from new technology have now been mostly achieved. 的 latest 生产 figures from 的 俄国n Ministry of Energy show that total 原油 oil 生产 in 的 country increased by 1.3% in 2012 to 518 million tons. 俄国n refinery volumes increased by 4.5% to 266 million tons while exports dropped by 1% to 239 million tons. 俄国n oil 生产 has increased rapidly from a low of 303 million tons in 1996.
"Greenfields are located in inhospitable and remote places and projects 的refore require large amounts of capital. We believe oil prices would need to remain above US$100 per barrel and 的 俄国n government would need to provide tax incentives for oil companies to invest in additional Eastern Siberian 生产," 惠誉 says.
一个显着的例外是里海架子,俄罗斯卢克石油’s second largest oil company, is progressing with its exploration and 生产 programme. 的 ratings agency does see potential for more joint ventures between 俄国n and international oil companies in exploring 的 俄国n continental shelf. No doubt, 的 needs must paradigm, 哪一个 is very visible elsewhere in 的 ‘crude’世界,也适用于俄罗斯人。
On 的 very same day as 惠誉 raised 的 possibility of 俄国n 生产 达到顶峰, Peking announced a massive capital spending drive towards 页岩 exploration. 路透社报道 that 中国 intends to start its own 页岩 gale as 的 country’s Ministry of Land and Resources issued exploration rights for 19 页岩 prospection blocks to 16 firms. Local media suggests most of 的 exploration rights pertain to 页岩 gas exploration with 的 16 firms pledging US$2 billion towards 的 move.
On 的 subject of 页岩 and before 的 news arrived from 中国, IHS副主席Daniel Yergin 告诉 the 世界经济论坛 in 达沃斯 that major unconventional opportunities are being identified around 的 world. "Our research indicates that 的 页岩 resource base in 中国 may be larger than in 的 USA, and we note prospects elsewhere," he added.
On 的 subject of 页岩 and before 的 news arrived from 中国, IHS副主席Daniel Yergin 告诉 the 世界经济论坛 in 达沃斯 that major unconventional opportunities are being identified around 的 world. "Our research indicates that 的 页岩 resource base in 中国 may be larger than in 的 USA, and we note prospects elsewhere," he added.
“仍处于起步阶段,我们相信还需要几年的时间,其他地区才会开始出现大量的非常规油气,” Yergin 说过。 In fact, 的 US is benefitting in more ways than one if IHS’ new report Energy and 的 新的全球工业格局:构造转变 可以相信。
In it, IHS forecasts that 的 "direct, indirect and induced effects" of 的 surge in nonconventional oil and gas extraction have already added 1.7 million jobs to 的 US jobs market with 3 million expected by 2020. Furthermore, 2012年,联邦和州政府的财政收入增加了620亿美元,预计到2020年将达到1,110亿美元。 (请参见上方的条形图 IHS. Click image to enlarge)
IHS还预测,2013年非欧佩克国家的石油供应量将达到每天110万桶–大于全球需求的增长– 哪一个 has happened only four times since 1986. Leading this non-OPEC growth is indeed 的 surge in unconventional oil in 的 USA. 的 report does warn, however, that increases in non-OPEC supply elsewhere in 的 world could be subject to what has proved to be a recurrent “失望的历史。”
那’s all for 的 moment folks!继续阅读,继续阅读‘crude’!
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©Gaurav Sharma2013。图:Brent Crude– Put/Call ratio ©盛宝银行,照片:俄罗斯杰里泵千斤顶© 卢克, Bar Chart: US jobs growth projection in 的 unconventional oil & gas sector © IHS 2013.