
基准已经显示了近三个月的看跌趋势,但是它们仍未反映出更广泛的宏观经济环境。直到昨天。的‘only way is up’如当前情况所示,基于线性供需排列的逻辑逻辑简化了该论点。美联储(Fed)缺乏QE3,美元走强以及中国,印度和欧洲数据疲弱等因素最终影响了市场人气。–不是提供完美的风暴,而是提供完美的现实! 德国商业信心水平下降 加剧了持续一段时间的看跌趋势。
Despite negative sentiments 和 the possibility of 布伦特 trading below US$100 per barrel for prolonged periods between now 和 Q1 2013, 欧佩克did not cut its quota last week. 沙特阿拉伯, which is so dominant within the cartel, actually wanted to send 价格 lower 因为布伦特原油价格可能跌至每桶85美元。
From a geopolitical standpoint, Saudis not only kicked a sanction hit 伊朗 (maybe gleefully) but delivered bad news for 俄国 (perhaps intentionally) 和 加拿大 (almost certainly unwittingly). Saudi rivalry with 伊朗 has more than a ‘crude’ dimension, but one with 俄国 almost certainly revolves around market dominance. 油鬼’的假设是,当 俄罗斯产量在2009年首次超过沙特阿拉伯.
作为世界’s leading producer for over two years, Moscow was causing Riyadh some discomfort. So the Saudis raised their game with the Libyan conflict 和 伊朗ian sanctions giving them ample excuses to do so. Constantly flouting 欧佩克production quotas, 今年2月,沙特阿拉伯从俄罗斯夺回了头把交椅。现在,油价逆转了,正是俄罗斯人出汗了,他们把每桶约110美元至120美元的油价都考虑在内,从而平衡了预算。
几个独立机构,评级机构(例如S&P) 和 even former finance minister 阿列克谢·库德林 repeatedly warned 俄国 about overreliance on oil. The sector accounts for nearly 70% of 俄国n exports 和 Vladimir Putin has done little to alter 那 dynamic both as prime minister 和 president in successive tenures.
从理论上讲,俄罗斯的石油产量可能增加到1000万桶/日,但在这种宏观经济环境下,实际上很难实现。因此市场(和沙特阿拉伯人)期望 俄罗斯将减少其5000亿美元的储备,以平衡短期至中期的账目,而不是增加产量。此外,除非俄罗斯人投资,否则沙特人’手只会得到加强,他们的地位‘crude’刺激提供者得到加强。
加拿大’s oil sands business while not a direct Saudi target is indeed an accidental victim. The impact of a fall in 价格 of 原油 will also be very different as 加拿大’经济远比俄罗斯多样化’s. Instead of a decline in production, the ongoing oil sands 和 shale prospection points to a potential rise.
Canadian prospection remains positive for Canadian consumers 和 exporters alike; provincial 和 federal governments want it, justice wants it, PM wants it 和 the public certainly want it. However, developing the Athabasca oil sands 和 Canadian shale plays (as well as US’ Bakken play) is capital 和 labour intensive.
对于油砂– holding the world’是仅次于沙特阿拉伯的第二大探明石油资源’s Dhahran region – to be profitable, 原油 price should not plummet below US$60 per barrel. 石油狂人对卡尔加里的三次访问 和 interaction with colleagues 在 CAPP, advisory, legal 和 energy firms in Alberta between 2008 和 2011 threw up a few points worth reiterating amidst this current 原油 价格修正 phase. First of all, anecdotal evidence suggests 那 while it would rather not, Alberta’省政府甚至可以将价格下跌至每桶35至40美元。

最后,加拿大既没有国家石油公司,也不是任何行业卡特尔的成员。但出于纯粹的经济学考虑,它也需要大约每桶80美元的价格。如果价格暴跌,或者沙特人沉迷于战术生产策略(如目前的情况),那您甚至会陷入困境,’宁愿是加拿大人而不是俄罗斯人。
油腻的长期以来一直怀疑沙特人将加拿大人视为保险业的同伴,‘石油需求破坏’ 和 vying for a slice of the American market; for them the 伊朗ians 和 俄国ns are just market miscreants. 那 the market itself is mischievous 和 Canadians might join the 'miscreants' list if proposed North American pipelines come onstream is another matter! 那’所有人都在眼前!继续阅读,保持“粗俗”!
©Gaurav Sharma2012。照片1:俄罗斯千斤顶© Lukoil. Photo 2: Red Square, Moscow, 俄国 ©Gaurav Sharma2004。照片3: Downtown 卡尔加里, Alberta, 加拿大 © 高拉夫·夏尔马 2011.