2012年1月24日,星期二

EU’的伊朗禁令,即将到来的印度冒险之旅和凯恩

Earlier on Monday and in line with market expectations, the European Union agreed to impose an embargo on the import of 伊朗ian 原油 油. The EU, which accounts for 20% of 伊朗’s 原油 exports, now prohibits the import, purchase and transport of 伊朗ian 原油 油 and petroleum products as well as related finance and insurance. All existing contracts will have to be phased out by 七月 1st, 2012.

In response, 伊朗 declared 禁令 as "unfair" and "doomed to fail", said it will not force it to change course on its controversial nuclear programme and renewed threats to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Going into further details, EU Investment in as well as the export of key equipment and technology for 伊朗's petrochemical sector is also banned.

A 措辞强烈的联合声明 英国首相戴维·卡梅伦(David Cameron),法国总统尼古拉·萨科奇(Nicolas Sarkozy)和德国总理安格拉·默克尔(Angela Merkel)说,“在伊朗上台之前,我们将团结起来采取强有力的措施破坏该政权’为其核计划供资的能力,以及证明威胁我们所有人的和平与安全的道路的成本。”

那’一切都很好,是的,它将伤害伊朗,但除非中国,印度和日本等主要的亚洲进口国决定也禁止伊朗进口,否则欧盟’s ban would not have the desired impact. Of these, China alone imports as much 伊朗ian 油 as the EU, Japan accounts for 17% of the country’的出口,其次是印度(16%)和韩国(9%)。

因此,在亚洲主要经济体加入禁运之前,欧盟和伊朗都将最终伤害自己。正如苏克敦(Sucden)财务报告所总结的那样,“Unless a deal can be agreed unilaterally, it is likely that the weak European economies could suffer from firmer 原油 prices whilst relatively robust Asian economies might benefit from preferential 原油 trade agreements.”

人们认为中国和日本不愿效仿,因为人们认为日本和韩国在做出反应之前正在寻求其他来源的供应保证。印度’在欧盟大爆发前的反应冷淡’的决定。现在已经做出决定,有趣的是要注意到印度政府的反应。亚博备用狂人本周将前往印度(以及下半个月的大部分时间),并将尝试嗅探公众和政府的情绪。

Meanwhile, 惠誉评级 has said the EU embargo will increase geopolitical risk in the Middle East region supporting high 油 prices. 代理商 considers blocking the Strait of Hormuz - the world's most important 油 chokepoint - 这是一个低概率的情况,并且认为,如果确实实现交易障碍,那么对贸易路线的任何阻碍都将持续很短的时间。

惠誉欧洲能源,公用事业和法规小组负责人Arkadiusz Wicik和Oilholic的老联系人’s, feels that the EU ban on 伊朗ian 油 is largely credit neutral for EU integrated 油 and gas companies. "The cash flow impact of 禁令 may be negative for refining operations, but should be positive or neutral for upstream operations," he says.

The most likely scenario is that the EU embargo will result in higher 油 prices. However, prices may not necessarily increase markedly from current levels as some of the risks related to the EU ban on 伊朗ian 油 appear factored in already.

新的惠誉报告进一步说明 the ban is likely to have a moderately negative impact on EU refiners as high 油 prices may further erode demand for refined products in Europe. This would worsen the already weak supply-demand balance in European refining. The embargo may also change 油 price spreads in Europe as 伊朗ian 原油 imports would likely be replaced with alternative 原油, which may be priced 在 a lower discount to Brent than 伊朗ian 原油 油.

EU refiners' security of 油 supply is unlikely to be substantially affected by an 伊朗 ban. There are alternative suppliers, such as Saudi Arabia (which has said it is able and willing to increase 油 production to meet additional demand), Russia and Iraq. Libyan 油 production is also recovering. 伊朗ian 油 accounted for just 5.7% of total 油 imports to the EU in 2010, and 4.4% in Q111. Furthermore, the sanctions will be implemented gradually by 七月 1st, 2012, which should give companies that use 伊朗ian 原油 油 time to find alternative suppliers, the report notes.

Southern European countries - Italy, Spain and Greece - are the largest importers of 伊朗ian 原油 油 in the EU. A rise in 油 prices could be further bad news for these countries, which already face a weak economic outlook in 2012.

“The impact of the new US sanctions signed into law late last year against 伊朗 is difficult to predict 在 this stage. It is not certain whether Asian countries, which are by far the largest importers of 伊朗ian 原油, accounting for about 70% of total 伊朗ian 油 imports, will substantially reduce supplies from 伊朗 in 2012 and replace them with other OPEC sources as a result of the new US sanctions,”惠誉报告进一步指出。

代理商’的报告确实做了一个非常重要的观察–自禁令的消息首次出现以来,就一直在纽约市进行巡逻– that’s if Asian reduction is substantial, in combination with the EU ban, it could considerably lower OPEC's spare production capacity. In such a scenario, the global 油 market would have less flexibility in the event of large unexpected supply interruptions elsewhere, potentially sending 油 prices much higher than current levels.

摆脱伊朗局势,凯恩能源已将其格陵兰岛勘探许可证中的30%股权出售给挪威’Statoil。英国独立新贵花了将近£去年有4亿美元的勘探成本,几乎没有证据表明它没有商业可利用性 oil 或记录了天然气发现。尽管持股比例已经透露,但凯恩和Statoil都没有说要支付多少股份。尽管如此,无论金额多少,它都将帮助凯恩减轻勘探成本和风险 因为它似乎长期在格陵兰。

在其他地方,炼厂方面有正面和负面的消息。从坏消息开始,Petroplus的股票– Europe’最大的独立磨浆机–周一在瑞士第六证券交易所被停牌’的要求。随着人们对Petroplus违约后债务违约的担忧加剧&P上个月降级,又在1月17日降级,看起来像 the refiner 正在为自己的商业生活而战。

上个月,贷款人暂停了近10亿美元的信贷额度,这阻止了 Petroplus从为其五个炼油厂采购原油。然而,它仍然设法使位于科里顿(英国埃塞克斯)和英戈尔施塔特(德国)的炼油厂的产能下降。星期一晚些时候,彭博社报道说,送货卡车没有离开科里顿工厂, 对设施的担忧正在上升’拥有1000多名员工。普华永道已被任命为Petroplus英国业务的主管,该公司周二表示,其目标是在不中断的情况下继续运营Coryton工厂。 Oilholic希望最好,但最坏的情况则恐惧。

转向炼油业务的利好消息,中国亚博备用天然气集团公司,卡塔尔亚博备用公司和荷兰皇家壳牌亚博备用公司于1月20日商定了在华东投资126亿美元建设一家炼油和石化工厂的计划。显然,由于欧洲产能过剩和利润率低迷,基于消费模式,炼油业务的未来越来越依赖于远东地区。那’目前所有人都是如此。继续阅读,继续阅读‘crude’!

©Gaurav Sharma2012。照片:油轮©Michael S. Quinton /国家地理。

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